covid-19 modeling november 9, 2021
TRANSCRIPT
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COVID-19 Modeling November 9, 2021
Presentation available at:dfr.vermont.gov
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Vermont Case Data Pg. 3Vermont Hospitalization Data Pg. 31Vermont Fatality Data Pg. 36Vermont Vaccination Data Pg. 40Regional Data Pg. 44National Data Pg. 51Restart Vermont Pg. 57
Table of Contents
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Vermont Case Data
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Source: Vermont Dept. of Health—November 9, 2021; created with Datawrapper 4
Vermont cases have increased 42% over last 7 days & increased 55% over last 14 days
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5Source: VDH—November 9, 2021; created with Datawrapper
Nu
mb
er o
f Tes
ts
Week-over-week testing increased, with 7-day average increasing 9% this week
Daily tests
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6Source: VDH—November 9, 2021; created with Datawrapper
Daily test positivity
Pos
itiv
ity
%
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7Source: VDH—November 9, 2021; created with Datawrapper
42% IncreaseOver last 7 days
9% IncreaseOver last 7 days
30% IncreaseOver last 7 days
Infections Testing Positivity Rate
Vermont Case Growth Metrics
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The not fully vaccinated case rate has increased 35% in the last 7 days
The fully vaccinated rate has increased 31% during the same period
3.7xGreater
Source: Vermont Dept. of Health and CDC—November 8, 2021
New
Cas
es p
er 10
0K
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New
Hos
pit
aliz
atio
ns
per
100
K
Source: Vermont Dept. of Health and CDC—November 6, 2021
2.2xGreater
The not fully vaccinated admission rate has decreased 15% in the last 7 days
The fully vaccinated admission rate has increased 8% during the same period
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Source: Vermont Dept. of Health—November 9, 2021; created with Datawrapper
Vermont reported 696 more cases this week compared to last week
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Source: Vermont Dept. of Health—November 8, 2021; created with Datawrapper
Halloween
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12
Infections Hospitalizations Fatalities
Average Age of Covid-19 Outcomes by Vaccination Status (July-Present)
Source: VDH—Vaccination data from July 1 to November 6, 2021; created with Datawrapper
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Source: CDC—November 8, 2021; Created with Datawrapper
Vermont had the 12th-highest rate of New COVID-19 cases over the last week
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Source: CDC—November 8, 2021; Created with Datawrapper
Vermont had the 2nd-highest rate of COVID-19 testing over the last week
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Source: JHU—November 9, 2021; DFR Active Case Algorithm (per million)
Active Cases in Vermont CountiesA
ctiv
e C
ases
per
Mill
ion
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Source: CDC—November 9, 2021
Vermont COVID-19 cases not expected to decrease over next 4 weeks
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Source: CDC—November 9, 2021
Vermont COVID-19 fatalities not expected to decrease over next 4 weeks
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Source: VDH—November 9, 2021 18
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19Source: VDH—November 9, 2021
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20Source: VDH—November 9, 2021
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21Source: VDH—November 9, 2021
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Source: VDH—November 8; created with Datawrapper
Infe
ctio
ns
per
100
K
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23
Vermont Case Rate & Vaccination by Age Band
Source: VDH—November 9, 2021
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24
Vermont Case Rate & Vaccination by Age Band
Source: VDH—November 9, 2021, 2021
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Source: VDH—November 8, 2021; created with Datawrapper
Infe
ctio
ns
per
100
K
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26
Essex County reporting highest case rates of any county
during pandemic
Cases most elevated in Orleans, Bennington, & Caledonia Counties; 12 of 14 counties saw
increases in case rates last week
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27Souce: JHU & DFR Active Case Algorithm—November 2, 2021
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Higher Education
Institutions Reporting
Enrollment Students Fully
Vaccinated
Students Not Fully Vaccinated (No Exemption Granted)
Students with Unknown Vaccine
Status
Students Granted Vaccine
Mandate Exemption
16 of 16 28,586 27,201 255 445 685
95.2% 0.9% 1.6% 2.4%
Fall 2021 Higher Education Restart
Week 1: 37 cases out of 12,623 testsWeek 2: 36 cases out of 7,434 testsWeek 3: 43 cases out of 3,053 tests Week 4: 65 cases out of 6,497 testsWeek 5: 36 cases out of 4,878 testsWeek 6: 19 cases out of 4,516 tests
Source: Vermont Higher Education Institutions—November 8, 2021
Week 7: 27 cases out of 3,536 testsWeek 8: 63 cases out of 3,668 testsWeek 9: 65 cases out of 4,398 testsWeek 10: 53 cases out of 4,575 testsWeek 11: 132 cases out of 8,404 test
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Source: Vermont Higher Education Institutions—November 9, 2021—Created with Datawrapper; * During the Fall 2020 semester Week 1 started later than Spring and Fall 2021 and therefore reached Thanksgiving Break by Week 11.
NA*
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Source: Vermont Department of Health—November 9, 2021 (reporting Monday through previous Sunday); ‘Active’ defined as less than 28 days since most recent case’s specimen collection date or illness start date (whichever is later); *privacy suppressions include facility w/ <25 staff and residents and/or >75% of facility infected
Facility Name Total COVID-19 Cases
Crescent Manor Nursing Home & Rehab, Bennington 32
Harbor Village Senior Living, South Burlington 21
The Pines at Rutland Center for Nursing & Rehab 18
Newport Health Care Center 17
Helen Porter Rehab and Nursing, Middlebury 8
Maple Lane Nursing Home, Barton <5
Vermont Veteran’s Home, Bennington <5
Total 103
Active Outbreaks in Long Term Care Facilities
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Vermont Hospitalization Data
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Source: Vermont Department of Health—November 9, 2021 32
Statewide Covid-19 Hospitalizations
67% of hospitalizations among the unvaccinated over the last 7 days
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Source: Vermont Department of Health—November 9, 2021 33
Statewide Covid-19 Critical Care Usage
64% of critical care stays among the unvaccinated over last 7 days
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New
Hos
pit
aliz
atio
ns
per
100
K
Source: US Dept. of Health & Human Services; 7-day average—November 8, 2021
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Source: CDC—November 8; Created with Datawrapper
Vermont ranks 25th on COVID-19 new hospital admissions in the country over the last week
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Vermont Fatality Data
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37Source: Vermont Department of Health—November 9, 2021 (reporting week ending Tuesday to Monday)
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38Source: Vermont Department of Health—November 9, 2021; deaths attributed to month in which death occurred rather than reported
387 COVID-19 Deaths Since the Start of the Pandemic
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Source: CDC—November 9, 2021; Created with Datawrapper
Vermont had the 13th-fewest COVID-19 deaths per capita over the last week
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Vermont Vaccination Data
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41Source: CDC—November 9, 2021
Vermont CDC Vaccine Scorecard
Metric Figure State Ranking
Doses Administered per 100K 163,427 1
% At Least 1 Dose(Eligible Population) 91.1% 5
% Fully Vaccinated(Eligible Population) 81.2% 3
% At Least 1 Dose(Full Population) 80.6% 2
% Fully Vaccinated(Full Population) 71.7% 1
% Fully Vaccinated (65 & Over) 97.9% 1
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42Source: CDC—November 9, 2021
Vermont ranks 1st with 47.7% of fully vaccinated people 65+ with a booster dose
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43Updated: 3/7/21Source: Vermont Dept. of Health—November 9, 2021; *based on 2019 census estimates; state data may differ from CDC reporting
77.17% 79.34%
69.45%
85.99% 84.86% 86.92%92.61%
99.56%
55.98%
100%*98.78%
2.43%
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Regional Data
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Sources: State Health Dept. & CTV National News (Quebec)
Regional Cases
New Cases November 2nd to November 8th
15% Increase in New Cases
New Cases October 26th to November 1st
50,850
45
58,483
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Sources: State Health Depts.—November 2, 2021 (includes: CT, ME, MA, NH, RI & VT)
All New England States
Individual New England States
Northern vs. Southern New England States
New England COVID-19 New Case Metrics (All Calculated on 7-Day Averages)
Sources: State Health Depts.—November 8, 2021 (includes: CT, ME, MA, NH, RI & VT)
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Sources: State Health Depts.—November 8, 2021 (includes: CT, ME, MA, NH, RI & VT)
New England cases increased 11.8% over last 7 days & increased 6% over last 14 days
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Sources: State Health Depts.—November 8, 2021 (includes: CT, ME, MA, NH, RI & VT)
Cases trending higher across New England
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Sources: State Health Depts.—November 8, 2021 (Northern NE includes: ME, NH & VT & Southern NE includes: CT, MA & RI)
Cases in northern New England increased 26% over the last 7 days while
cases in southern New England increased 15% during the same period
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Weekly Regional Cases
Sources: State Health Depts.—November 8, 2021 (includes: CT, ME, MA, NH, RI & VT)
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National Data
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52
U.S. Infections, Hospitalizations, & Deaths(7-Day Average)
Infections Hospitalizations(Current)
Deaths
Source: New York Times—November 8, 2021; created with Datawrapper
0.8 IncreaseOver last 7 days
6.1% DecreaseOver last 7 days
9.6% DecreaseOver last 7 days
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Infections, Hospitalizations, & Deathsby Percentage of State Population Vaccinated
Source: Covid Act Now—November 9, 2021; 7-day averages; created with Datawrapper
Bottom Third Vaccinated States Middle Third Vaccinated States Top Third Vaccinated States
Infections per 100K Hospitalizations per 100K Deaths per 100K (Current)
53
Vermont
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54Source: JHU—November 9, 2021; 7-day averages; created with Datawrapper
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Source: CDC—November 9, 2021
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Source: CDC—November 9, 2021
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RESTART VERMONT
1. Syndromic Surveillance (retired)2. Viral Growth & Reproductive Rates3. Percentage of New Positive Tests4. Hospital & Critical Care Bed Capacity
Reopening Metrics
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Viral Growth & Reproductive Rates
Source: Vermont Department of Health 58
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Percentage of New Positive Tests
59Source: Vermont Department of Health
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Hospital & Critical Care Beds
60Source: Vermont Department of Health
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Vermont Testing
Source: Vermont Department of Health; results reported to VDH daily 61