covid-19: impact on telco priorities & future …...smart city acceleration action on internet...

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COVID-19: Impact on telco priorities & future scenariosWebinar #2

05/05/2020


COVID-19: Impact on telco priorities & future scenarios

Amy CameronSenior AnalystSTL Partners

Andrew CollinsonResearch Director

STL Partners

Dean BubleySenior Associate

STL Partners+

Disruptive Analysis

Dr. SukantMohapatraEnterprise

Innovation and 5G Solutions

Verizon Wireless

Dr. Rainer DeutschmannGroup Chief

Operating OfficerDialog Axiata PLC

60 minute webinar: Tuesday 5th May 2020 15.00-16.00 UK time


Agenda1. How telcos priorities are changing in response to COVID-19

2. Some long term scenarios for 2025

3. Q&A session


COVID-19: Context

• First report published in March 2020

• Webinar Wednesday 1st April 2020

• We are now conducting follow up

research on telco priorities

https://stlpartners.com/research/covid-19-now-next-and-after/


Our view: It is a long term disruption

The COVID-19 pandemic is not a short-term disruption

Telcos are doing good things

The crisis will accelerate Coordination Age trends

But 5G spending may be more cautious

Telecoms should enhance its focus on new customer needs…

…and make it an opportunity to accelerate and embody positive changes


Background to the survey

https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/covidimpactapr20

Telco, 39%

Vendor, 31%

Other, 30%

Respondents by company type

Europe, 45%

Americas, 40%

MENA, 5%

AsiaPac, 10%

Respondents by market area

These results include 167 people’s input up to 1pm UK time, 5th May 2020.



Background to the survey



C-Level, 10%

VP/SVP/Director, 35%

Head of/Senior Manager, 21%

Manager/Exec, 34%

Respondents by level

Product, 18%

Management, 24%Strategy,

26%

Analytical, 19%

Business Development,

13%

Respondents by function



Automation is a clear priority

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Network cloud: NFV, SDN, etc.

Cloudification of core systems (BSS, OSS, etc.)

Telco Edge

Artificial Intelligence and analytics (AI, ML, etc,)

Automation

% who said 'uplift' scored +ve, 'delay/cut' scored -ve

Technology expectations - distribution

Minor delay/cut Major delay/cut Minor acceleration/uplift Major acceleration/uplift



COVID-19 adds urgency to operators’ automation priorities

Short term automation priorities

Long term goals

Network optimisation to

handle changes in usage patterns

More predictive and efficient

management of field workforce

Responses to COVID-19 induced

challenges and opportunities

Closing the loop on as many end-to-end

processes as possible

Ensuring roll out of 5G doesn’t disrupt

pre-existing automation efforts

Accelerating automation of customer facing services

• digital sales channels• automated customer care• self-installation solutions

Making use of automation (and AI) tools part of employees’ every

day work


Network development: Polarised views on 5G

While on balance negative for 5G activities, there is a significant spread of views

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Core, trunk and backhaul network upgrades

4G mobile access network

5G mobile access network

Fibre access network

Network resilience


Network development - distribution of views on likely near-term changes



Prerequisite for 5G deployments


-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Security services

Conferencing, VPNs, etc

SD-WAN and NaaS offerings

Data monetisation services (population movements…

Industrial IoT and Manufacturing

Transport and logistics

Digital health solutions

Retail


B2B expectations - distribution


Healthcare, security and conferencing services lead the priorities in the business arena

Se

rvic

es

Ve

rtic

als



Security, entertainment and education lead consumer services priorities

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Entertainment services

Education services

Financial services

Smart home

Consumer cybersecurity


Consumer services expectations - distrubution




Drives for innovation and market understanding appear to be boosted

Encouraging – but is it real?

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Understanding customer needs and marketopportunities

Innovation and development

Sustainability / carbon reduction

Transformation programmes

Training, development and learning

Recruitment to address skills gaps


Leadership - change expectations




Longer term: 2025 scenarios for post-CV19 telecomsCollaborative global response

Fragmented / isolated national responses

Time to recovery (effective treatments and stable economy)

Weak and distanced

Stronger than before

Back to (almost) normal

Fragmented recovery

Impact on the telecoms industry

Negative Positive

Current best-estimate of mid-term outcome. Very dependent on vaccine, 2nd wave of virus & economic rebound potential


Each scenario will impact the telecoms industry differently

Market area Back to (almost) normal

Fragmented recovery

Weak and distanced

Stronger than before

5G

Fixed networks

Finance and ownership

Consumer services and content

Enterprise and verticals

Regulatory focus

Internet / cloud services

IoT

Other tech and services

The Coordination Age

Improved outlook for telcos

Somewhat improved outlook for telcos

Similar outlook for telcos

Somewhat worse outlook for telcos

Worse outlook for telcos

Legend


Key signals & indicators for telecoms scenarios Negative signs Positive signs

Medical / healthcare Winter / seasonal wavesHealthcare failuresHigh/fast reinfection rates

Immunity provedProven treatments / vaccinesWidespread testing / tracing

Population & society Lockdowns reimposedLogistics challenged/failSlow behavioural shifts

Lockdowns liftedFlights resumeNext-gen WFH & remote education

International relations More geopolitical tension Borders & flights openCollaboration on healthcare and trade

Economic situation Q3 GDP & employment fallsFinancial / debt concerns

Signs of V/U-shaped recoveryConsumer spending rebound

Government + telecom Delayed spectrum releasesInflexible regs / competition rulesPrivacy abuse / authoritarianismTechnology islands & divergence

Relaxed planning lawsSmart City accelerationAction on Internet equal-accessIoT (eg pandemic-proof building codes)

Business Stagnation & conservatismLower productivity / higher costs

Renewed transformation / automationNew sectors / unicorns emerge


Thank you!To discuss any of this content in more detail please get

in touch:

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covid-19: impact on telco priorities & future …...smart city acceleration action on internet...

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