Coverage of Social Protection Programmes in MENA

International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth

1

Why is it relevant to know who is covered by Social Protection Programmes?

• Sustainable Development Goal 1 “End poverty in all its forms everywhere”• Target 1.1

By 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than $1.25 a day

• Target 1.2By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definition

• Target 1.3 Implement nationally appropriate social protection systems and measures for all, including floors, and by 2030 achieve substantial coverage of the poor and the vulnerable

Indicator 1.3.1 Proportion of population covered by social protection floors/systems, by sex, distinguishing children, unemployed persons, older persons, persons with disabilities, pregnant women, newborns, work-injury victims and the poor and the vulnerable

2

Monitoring Progress – ILO World Social Protection Report 2017-2019

Source: World Social Protection Report 2017–2019 (ILO 2017)• Focuses on coverage through cash transfers (non-contributory and contributory) by

population group (children, mothers with newborn, elderly, people with disabilities, people of working age)

• Coverage is understood as ratio of people in population group receiving benefits to the total number of people in population group

• Also includes information on vulnerable persons covered by social assistance, measured as the ratio of social assistance recipients to the total number of vulnerable persons (children plus adults not covered by contributory benefits and persons above retirement age not receiving contributory benefits)

• Mainly based on ILO’s Social Security Inquiry (SSI)—periodic collection of administrative data from national ministries

• Caveats: does not measure other types of social protection, such as in-kind or school feeding programmes, focus on programmes anchored in nat. legislation, lack information about whether the poorest and most vulnerable children are covered

3

Monitoring Progress – ILO World Social Protection Report 2017-2019Key findings:

• Despite the progress observed in many parts of the world, only 45 per cent of the global population are effectively covered by at least one social protection benefit (includes contributory as well as non-contributory programmes).

• Only 35 per cent of children globally receive child or family benefits, with significant regional disparities, ranging from 84 per cent in Europe to only 28 per cent in Asia and 16 per cent in Africa (MENA region is not included here due to insufficient data)

• In MENA, only 2 countries were reported to have non-contributory child and family benefits anchored in national legislation: Libya (universal, not means-tested) and Iraq (means-tested social assistance)

4

Source: ILO World Social Protection Report 2017-20195

Source: ILO World Social Protection Report 2017-20196

Social Security Programs Throughout the World – ISSA/SSA• Source (for countries in MENA region): Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Africa,

2017 and Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Asia and the Pacific, 2016

- Based on survey conducted by the International Social Security Association (ISSA) in partnership with the U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA) as well as data collected by ISSA and empirical data provided by social security institutions.

- Provides key features of social security schemes (contributory and non-contributory ), that insure individuals against loss of income and for certain special expenditures arising from marriage, birth, or death, including child allowances. Includes cash and in-kind benefits.

- Also used by ILO World Social Protection Report 2017-2019.

Caveats:

- Only includes programmes ‘established by statute’, many social cash transfer prorgammes are notincluded.

- Only provides information on eligible groups, not on no. of people covered.

7

Monitoring Progress – WB State of Social Protection 2018

• Source: World Bank State of Social Protection 2018, based on Atlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience and Equity – ASPIRE

• Available for all Social Protection and Labour (SPL) programmes, and separately for each of the three components:

• Social Insurance (contributory), Labour Market Programmes (contributory and non-contributory), and Social Assistance (non-contributory)

• Disaggregated by type of intervention and by wealth quintile• Relevant measures: (i) coverage; (ii) beneficiary incidence (distribution of beneficiaries along the welfare distribution of the

population); (iii) level of benefits and (iv) impact on poverty and inequality .

• Coverage includes direct and indirect beneficiaries (all household members where at least one member receives a benefit)

• Coverage estimates are based on household survey data

• Caveats: may give imprecise coverage estimates due to sampling bias and underreporting and usually limited to large-scale programmes, leaving out smaller schemes, no age-disaggregated data

8

Monitoring Progress – WB State of Social Protection 2018

• In MENA, Social Assistance Coverage (by wealth quintile) is available for 10 countries:

• Djibouti (Enquete Djiboutienne Aupres des Menages 2012)• Egypt (Household Income, Expenditure, and Consumption Survey 2008–2009)• Iraq (Household Socio Economic Survey 2012)• Jordan (Household Expenditure and Income Survey 2010)• Lebanon (National Survey of Household Living Conditions, Multipurpose Survey 2004)*• Morocco (Household and Youth Survey 2009)• Sudan (National Baseline Household Survey 2009)**• Tunisia (Enquête nationale sur le budget la consommation et le niveau de vie des ménage 2010)• West Bank and Gaza (Expenditure and Consumption Survey 2009)• Yemen (Household Budget Survey 2005)*

*World Bank State of Social Protection 2018 report only brings data from most recent surveys (2008-16)

** Sudan is classified as Sub-Saharan Africa, and not included in MENA regional averages

9

Monitoring Progress – WB State of Social Protection 2018

Relevant findings:

• MENA region (7 countries considered) ranks below Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and Pacific in the share of total population and the share of the poorest quintile that receive any SPL programme, with 43% of the total population and 55% of the poorest quintile covered.

• Strong correlation between social protection coverage and countries’ level of income, low income countries lag in all three areas of social protection in terms of the coverage of the poor.

• Unconditional Cash Transfers (UCTs)• In MENA, only Iraq ranks above the world average (23.4%), regarding the share of the poorest quintile that

receives UCTs (other countries considered: Jordan, West Bank and Gaza, Tunisia, Egypt, Djibouti, Sudan and Morocco)

• Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs)• The CCT ranking from the ASPIRE database captures only 19 countries, none of which are located in the MENA

region.

10

Monitoring Progress – WB State of Social Protection 2018

In-kind Transfers:

Share of poorest quintile that receives in-kind transfers:

• 81% of the poorest quintile in Iraq in 2012

• 56% in Egypt (2008)

• 40% in Morocco (2009)

• 28% in Djibouti (2012)

• 20% West Bank and Gaza

• 10% Sudan

• 10% Tunisia

World Average: 27.1%

11

Monitoring Progress – WB State of Social Protection 2018 – Beneficiary incidence of UCTs

12

MICS 6 – Social Protection Module

• Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS)• 300 Surveys in 109 Countries (as in April 2018)• Methodological Work on Social Protection

• MICS6 presents a new module on coverage of social protection programmes, defined as those “aimed at preventing, reducing and eliminating economic and social vulnerabilities of households”.

• First field tests of Social Protection Module developed in Kenya, Zimbabwe and Vietnam (2014-2015)

• MICS6 Field-test in Belize

• Sample questions: Knowledge of social protection, Household/member has ever received any type of benefit, Time since receiving the last benefit, If anyone in household has health insurance, If children aged 5-24 years and attending school are receiving any type of school support (fees, food, materials e.g. uniform, books, etc.) (Priscilla Idele, UNICEF NY)

13

MICS 6 – Social Protection Module

MICS 6 will be soon available in 4 MENA countries

• Tunisia (2018) – Data Collection

• Iraq (2018) – Data Collection

• Algeria (2018) – Survey Design

• Sudan (2019) – Survey Design

Source: http://mics.unicef.org/

14

CODI Assessments

Source: Core Diagnostic Instrument (CODI) by Inter Agency Social Protection Assessments (ISPA)

• Conducted in partnership with gov. stakeholders, includes information on coverage (by age, poverty status), tools can be adapted to focus on one specific aspect or programme

• Assessments in the MENA region:• Core Diagnostic Instrument (CODI): Saudi Arabia, Oman (both completed), Lebanon

(in progress)• Public Works: Egypt (in progress) • ID: Morocco (completed)• Food security and nutrition: Palestine (progress)

• Problem: reports are not publicly available

15

Overview Non-contributory Social Protection Programmes in MENA (IPC-IG 2018)

• Source: Overview of Non-contributorySocial Protection Programmes in theMENA Region through a Child and EquityLens (Chapter 3)

• Coverage is understood as “the numberof individuals, households or childrenwho benefit from a given programme asprovided in administrative information at

a given point”

• Approximately 70% of the 138 non-subsidy schemes mapped were found tohave reported some information on thenr. of beneficiaries

• For the coverage analysis, programmeswere classified in six different categories:

1. Conditional and unconditional cashtransfers;

2. Cash transfers only available to families withschool-age children (school allowances);

3. Non-cash programmes targeting school-agechildren (school-related programmes);

4. In-kind programmes provided in the form offood;

5. Health-related programmes;

6. Cash-for-work schemes.

16

Overview Non-contributory Social Protection Programmes in MENA (IPC-IG 2018)

• Coverage figures, when available, are rarely disaggregated by age group: • Only 35 programmes in 16 countries have

reported the number of children covered

• When child coverage numbers were not available:

• For programmes, for which only the no. of households or of total individuals were available, the no. of children covered was estimated based on the average household size and the proportion of children in the country

• Caveats of child coverage estimations:• Some programmes have a cap per

household, and the overall no. of people reported as beneficiaries only refers to the number of people below this cap, meaning that this no. is possibly smaller than the total number of individuals living in the beneficiary households (canlead to understimation).

• In other cases, such as old-age pension schemes, it was assumed that the benefit structure accepts only one beneficiary per household (can lead to overestimation if there is actually more than one individual receiving the benefit per household).

17

Overview Non-contributory Social Protection Programmes in MENA (IPC-IG 2018)

Step 1. Comparing child coverage numbers with number of children in the country (based on World Bank population estimates)

Cash transfers

• The most prevalent type of programme in the MENA region

• Programmes vary greatly in size, ranging from 2.9 per cent of all children under the age of 18 in Jordan (National Aid Fund Cash Assistance) up to 34 per cent in Yemen (Social Welfare Fund) and 32 per cent in Sudan (zakat-funded cash transfers)

18

Step 1. Estimated coverage of cash

transfers—children aged 0–17

Note: programmes are not necessarily targeted at children, includes programmes that are targeted at specific groups, i.e. people with disabilities 19

Step 1. Estimated coverage of food transfer programmes—selected age groups

• Non-cash programmes targeting school-age children (school-related programmes)

Especially school feeding programmes) reach larger proportions of children across all countries

• In Morocco and Algeria, the distribution of school supplies has been found very relevant in terms of coverage.

in Morocco, the Initiative Royale 1 Million de Cartablesreached more than 4 million children in schools (58% of school-age children) and the Fournitures Scolaires and Manuel Scolaire in Algeria scheme supports nearly 60% of all school-age children

20

Overview Non-contributory Social Protection Programmes in MENA (IPC-IG 2018)

Step 2. Comparing child coverage numbers with number of poor children in the country, assuming perfect targeting

Monetary Child Poverty

• At least seven countries in the MENA region have national estimates of monetary child poverty:

• Algeria• Egypt• Iraq• Morocco• Qatar• SOP• Tunisia

Multidimensional Child Poverty

• 9 MENA countries were covered in Child Poverty in the Arab States – Analytical Report of Eleven Countries (UNICEF 2018) (see graph)

Incidence of acute and moderate multidimensional child poverty (%)

21

Step 2. Estimated coverage capacity of multidimensionally poor children by selected cash transfer programmes

• Comparison between programme size (share of children covered) and the share of multidimensionally poor children that could be reached by the programme:

- Palestinian National Cash Transfer Programme (PNCTP) and Yemen’s Social Welfare Fund have a high potential to reach poor children -around 49 per cent and 45 per cent, respectively.

22

Step 2. Estimated coverage capacity of monetary and multi-dimensionally poor children by selected cash transfer programmes

• Where estimates are available for both multidimensional and monetary child poverty, multidimensional poverty estimates tend to be higher than monetary poverty estimates.

• Coverage capacity –monetarily vs. multidimensionally poor children

• Comparison between the absolute number of children covered by a selected number of programmes to the number of children living in monetary and multidimensional poverty.

23

Overview Non-contributory Social Protection Programmes in MENA (IPC-IG 2018) - Final Remarks• Very little is known about the beneficiary

incidence of these schemes;

• Age-disaggregated data on monetary and multidimensional poverty is crucial to better tailor child-sensitive social protection policies;

• Governments in the region still need to increase efforts to generate data which allow to measure the targets and indicators of SDG 1.3.

• Hardly any of the programmes are large enough to cover all vulnerable children in a country;

• The coexistence of several small-scale programmes implies a greater challenge than just expanding the coverage of existing social protection schemes

• Targeting mechanisms currently used need to be rethought to better reach vulnerable children without generating unjustifiable exclusion errors. More rigorous target analysis is needed to better understand how current targeting mechanisms can be improved.

24

Questions for the on-line community

• UNICEF Stakeholders: discussion on experiences in MICS 6 – challenges and lessons learnt

• All Stakeholders: How do improve data availability?• Household surveys which include social protection coverage • Programmes with comprehensive administrative data sets and well-established MIS-

examples• Single registries that are currently functional – country examples and relevant

experiences

• What are the caveats of the different instruments, how to account for them? – Examples.

• CODI experiences – share experiences and reports, if possible. • ILO’s process to collect data via SSI - what exactly does “anchored in

national legislation” mean?

25

Additional references

- ILO (2013). Module 6: Quantifying gaps and measuring coverage ILO

26