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Student: Romain VUATTOUX

Tutor: Dr. Peter Parker

Sustainable Urban Development BY604E 30 credits:

Course Assignment

Thinking beyond mobility, bringing accessibility to

transportation planning for a rapidly aging population in

Shanghai

Malmo University

Autumn 2011

Sustainable Urban Management Programme

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ABSTRACT: This paper puts in perspective the size and scale of the challenges Shanghai is starting to face with its

aging population, and demonstrates that it is an unprecedented phenomenon in terms of speed and

scale for a developing country. It looks at mobility and differentiates the term from merely signifying

“transport” to include the concept of accessibility. This paper looks at how Shanghai can improve

mobility and accessibility for its transport with a focus on the physical challenges in planning that need

to be considered for elderly. Barriers to both mobility and accessibility are identified. Results show that

both an interdisciplinary approach and good land use planning must combine to break these barriers.

Keywords: Shanghai, aging population, elderly, transportation, mobility and accessibility

NOTE: Since this paper was written, it has come to the author’s attention that the WHO

published a report on Age Friendly Cities which adds to the analysis of this paper. This

report is available via the WHO website or here:

http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2007/9789241547307_eng.pdf

Picture by Romain Vuattoux (August 2008)

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INTRODUCTION: With a rapidly aging population, many cities around the world will have to be transformed to meet the demands of their aging inhabitants (Beard and Petitot, 2010). Sustainable urban development needs to consider everyone if it wishes to have positive social outcomes (Dempsey et al., 2009). A growing group of the population, often not considered in developing countries, is the elderly, and this group is growing particularly fast in Shanghai. Many aspects of the city used by the elderly will have to be rethought, including transportation what is meant by: mobility. In urban planning, this term is often used as a synonym for “transportation”. Mobility often considers the need of young segments of the population as transport systems are commonly planned to support the active population in the economy. Shanghai’s government is developing the transportation system in view of improving mobility on those terms. However this mobility planning often lacks consideration for the ease of access to the transportation system, herein: accessibility. Questions need to be raised concerning the accessibility of the transportation system for the elderly. Urban planners will need to consider accessibility as an integral part of mobility. As China starts to face a large structural change in its population, and Shanghai, arguably its most modern city, is often seen as the precursor for all changes that take place in the country, displaying trends for future changes and leading the way with solutions. By the 2030s, China will see its population decline, and beside the country side being emptied from on-going rural-urban migration, much of these structural changes will begin to occur in cities like Shanghai where the majority of working immigrants will have settled and where fertility rates have already dropped massively as people delay childbearing. The scale and speed at which this demographic change is taking place is unprecedented in human history. It is a challenge to the scale of Shanghai, but which will also be faced in other rapidly developing countries. Even if changes are happening much faster than seen before, Shanghai has the advantage of not being the first city in the world to go through this transition and so it can observe and learn from other cities, especially in developed countries where the transition started earlier. Furthermore, Shanghai is still benefiting from an influx of young workers from rural areas, but this will eventually slow down. Unless we argue for a Chinese exceptionalism where all old people would return to the country side, it is very clear that a rapidly aging population will affect Shanghai and considering the size of the city, the impact of these changes will be enormous. Problem: Few studies have been published on the upcoming changes to the urban population structure in China. Most studies on the topic of aging demographic dates back to the 1970s and 1980s in Western countries. In China, research on the topic focuses on the causes for the decline in children per household or the consequences this decline has on the economy, but aging has often been disregarded as a consequence. Much of the research also focuses on the rural aging population, the health and pension implications for policy-making related to old age. Few studies look at the consequences an aging population will have on urban development. Few articles have been published on how the built environment affects mobility and

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accessibility, and so the life and well-being of elderly. However the need remains for the consideration of a rapidly aging population in urban planning; particularly in developing countries where the phenomenon is happening much faster and at a larger scale than ever witnessed before. This essay will look at the consequences these demographic changes will have on Shanghai’s urban development with regards to mobility and accessibility in transportation, in order to better grasp the urban planning challenges that many Chinese cities and rapidly developing countries will face. The new transportation systems that are growing at unprecedented speed, need to consider elderly mobility, and this can only be done by improving and integrating accessibility.

This paper will attempt to answer the following two questions: 1. Why is planning for a rapidly aging population so important in Shanghai? 2. What are or might be the problems with mobility and accessibility of transportation for elderly in Shanghai? And what are solutions/considerations for Shanghai to prepare for these changes? Aim: The purpose of this essay is to somewhat compensate for the lacking literature on accessibility for elderly in urban planning for mobility, particularly in countries undergoing rapid demographic changes. As the changes in Shanghai are unprecedented in speed and scale, it is important to start thinking now about what should be done in the future. This essay attempts to help in choosing the most appropriate planning approach to react to rapid demographic changes, and can help plan for mobility, while considering accessibility, in anticipation of future urban development in developing countries. I hope that this paper will help draw up a list of items for consideration when doing physical planning for the mobility of elderly. There are many other solutions that can be brought by policy making or through health but these are not the focus of this paper. By looking at what is being done in Shanghai, it may serve to predict changes that will occur more widely across the country, and can begin to propose an approach to prepare for such changes. By answering the two questions above, I hope to provide the beginning of an answer to another question which could lead into further research: How has the centralized urban planning approach worked to deal with the changes in Shanghai? METHODOOLOGY: The choice of Shanghai as a case study seemed obvious in view of the unprecedented demographic changes that are taking place and the consequences for the accessibility of transportation systems for elderly. I reviewed secondary literature and data, as it would have been extremely difficult and time consuming to collect primary data and would have diverted from the analysis of the data. The reasons I have chosen secondary data analysis are numerous. The most obvious reason is that I would have had to travel to Shanghai in order to collect data; however by looking at United Nations (UN) and Shanghai Municipal Government (SMG) data, I can rely on fairly high-quality data at a greater scale than I could have collected myself, due to larger sampling and established methods of data collection. Furthermore, looking at this data allows me to do a longitudinal research, enabling me to look at more than

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just one source (Bryman, 2008; p297). In addition, re-analyzing data and old sources may provide new interpretations and new hindsight that could affect the predictions that were made in the past (Bryman, 2008; p299). This approach also has some disadvantages. For instance, as the data was collected by others, the data was unfamiliar and sometimes involved difficult calculations for which I could not verify the quality myself and must rely on my perceptions of authenticity from these researchers (Bryman, 2008; p300). In the case of UN and SMG data, it is fair to assume that the data is largely accurate and non-biased, especially where these data offer similar results. By using peer-reviewed articles, and official data, I hope to offer a certain level of guarantee for authenticity and accuracy. I will also illustrate my arguments with pictures of current examples in Shanghai. I am not trying to be specific to any area Shanghai. This essay will first review the predictions for the population structure and growth. Second, it will look at solutions for mobility and accessibility in physical planning for elderly. This will be done through literature review and from analysis of examples in the physical environment. The time frame chosen here is: 1980-2040. However, the observations are based on pictures taken in 2011 (after the world expo), this is a sort of mid-point that enables to evaluate where Shanghai stands in terms of accessibility and mobility. Also, the built environment constructed today will still have effect on the use of the city in 30 years. I chose the starting point in the 1980s simply to give a few years of hindsight, enabling to give a small indication of trends from the past. Choosing the timeline herein, I hope to account for a slow down in the pace of changes towards the end of the period looked at.

I presumed that much of the research published in the late 1980s was published because of the beginning of the one child-policy and it is surprising that little has been published since the early 1990s about the upcoming aging population problem in cities. It is possible that much of the literature was published in the 1980s as life expectancy started to rise, and as the Chinese government started to privatize the health sector, along with launching its market reforms. While for the literature from Western countries, the 1980s correspond to the rise of the elderly. Even if much of the literature used in this essay is somewhat dated, it is nonetheless still relevant today. I will partly make up for the lack of recent peer-reviewed articles by looking at recent sources of information in the mass media and official publications. THEORY:

The Bruntland Commission, in 1987 defined sustainable development as: “development that meets the needs of the present without jeopardizing the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (World Commission on Environment and Development; 1987). This definition is often used and interpreted as preserving resources for young generations, but I would like to offer a new interpretation for developing countries. A generation may be young or old, so elderly can be considered as a future generation where such a group did not exist due to lack of numbers for instance where population is aging rapidly. Hence, development in rapidly aging countries needs to consider inter-generational equity in their urban planning, as the “elderly generation” of the future will be affected by the decisions taken in the present.

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According to the UN and widely accepted by planners today is the idea that sustainable urban development rests on three interdependent pillars: economic, environment, social (or sometimes called: socio-political) (World Bank Group, 2005). Scott Campbell highlights the tensions within sustainable development and explains that there is often a great care for environmental or economic aspects of sustainable urban development often placing social aspects behind with the belief that work on environmental and economic aspects will necessarily benefit social aspects (Campbell, 1996). Accessibility can be associated to social and Mobility to the economic aspect.

Paul Knox (1980) joins David Harvey (1973) to argue that mobility and accessibility can express the uneven geographical development caused by urban planning, as certain groups may be able to move while others do not because of difficult access to transport. Knox was one of the first to argue that accessibility is a useful social indicator to measure quality of life, and that it should be seen as central to urban planners. Both Harvey and Knox believe that poor and rich divide expressed in the built environment is caused due to accessibility/mobility barriers, but their approach can be applied to young versus aged, especially when aged are also often poor as in developing countries. Schuttemeyer, Fobker et al. confirm this when they state that: “There is consensus that sustainable mobility aims at avoiding, reducing and/or shifting traffic. According to the three dimensions of sustainability, these more or less ecological goals have to be fulfilled without creating economic burbens or social exclusion of particular population groups” (Schuttemeyer et al; 2004, p18). Joni K Markovitz, was one of the first to differentiate between mobility and what he called: “Access to opportunities” (Markovitz; 1971). He linked accessibility to the need of the aged’s reduced physical capabilities. Martin Wachs (1979) and Sandra Rosenbloom (1988) build up on Markovitz to suggest that urban planning needs to consider the elderly. Rosenbloom argues that three areas need particular care to solve short and long term mobility problems, these are: transportation, land use planning, and human service delivery (Rosenbloom; 1988). Each of these aspects is affected by urban planners, and this essay looks in particular at the first two. Wachs in the 1970s identified the demographic change taking place in Los Angeles, and described the uneven distribution of transportation services to elderly, the dominance of car as a transport mode, along with the growing concentration of elderly in suburbs. This trend could soon be mirrored in Shanghai, where the new upper middle classes (in their fifties) have bought houses in suburbs and will soon age there, while remaining car dependent and relatively far from public transport or services. Rosenbloom warns about the dangers of car dependency, and argues in favor of a variety of transportation development along with better urban planning and land usage, while she ties the problem of elderly car dependency for mobility to sustainability (Rosenbloom, 2001). In her international survey of “sustainability and automobility among the elderly”, she describes the implications for environmental pollution as being that elderly use their car more than young people. Rosenbloom advises for new transit service concepts and strategic community and neighbourhood design, while new cleaner cars are being developed (Rosenbloom; 2001). We will see how this holds for Shanghai.

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Shanghai and its aging population: 1. Why is planning the urban environment for a rapidly aging population so important in Shanghai?

Looking at the causes for the demographic change that is occurring is helpful to understand the context which Shanghai is facing and to find trends to help predict changes that will take place. In shanghai family planning started as early as the 1950s. Shortly after liberation from the Japanese, the communist government set up family planning with for instance the setting up of family planning clinics in all medical units and hospitals of Shanghai, and the provision of contraceptives.1 Under the communists, life expectancy started rising, reaching today comparable averages to that of Tokyo and many developed countries. The average life expectancy was at 81.28 years in 2008, for local citizens (79.06 for males and 83.5 for females) (Shanghai Municipal government; 2011). A quick historical background (from 1949-1987) is given by Yi and Vaupel, in their article; they explain that in the years following the take over by the communists, there was rapid urbanization, followed by a decline as a result of the failures of the “Great Leap Forward”. Restrictive policies were implemented to prevent people from moving to cities, leading to a stagnation of the urbanization throughout the 1960s-70s. However, with the reforms of the late 70s and early 80s, very rapid urbanization started again and began to slow down slightly in the late 80s, but doubled in just about ten years (Yi and Vaupel, 1989; Shen, 1998). Yi and Vaupel also explain how the change in classifications is also part of the reason for these changes. The one child policy along with the economic reforms and rapid development which started in the late 1970s, and continued from the 1980s to now, have accentuated the phenomenon, causing urbanization (resulting for example in less need for manual labor within urban families) and improvement of standards of living (e.g.: decreased mortality, further increase in life expectancy, better education and access to care). In 1982, according to Yi and Vaupel who based themselves on the most recent population census then, only 20.8 percent of the total population lived in urban areas (Yi and Vaupel, 1989). In 2011, China is close to 50 percent urbanized. Assuming that urbanization continues at the same rate and that China has an urbanization comparable to that of other developed countries of around 80 percent, it will take another 30 years for China to “finish” urbanizing. It is fair to follow predictions from Yi and Vaupel as their lowest predictions on population, were fairly accurate and reflect the UN predictions on aging population in China (Yi and Vaupel, 1989; p435-436; Shen, 1998). This massive urbanization shows that the aging problem will increasingly become an urban problem in China. Already in 2000, the United Nations Economic Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (UNESCAP) stated that: “The speed of aging of Shanghai not only has exceeded that of Germany, but also Japan” (UNESCAP). As Table 1 suggests, the population of elderly more than doubled from 1982 to 2010. Between 2000 and 2010, there was an average increase to the city of 661,134 people per year (1811 more people /day) and of just about 1 million people 60 years old or older over 10 years. As 1 See UNESCAP for a review of the development of the Shanghai family planning.

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we have noted before, Shanghai’s natural growth rate is in fact negative (UNESCAP), so the population growth is solely a result of the immigration. These immigrants are usually young people, and so they somewhat compensate for the declining birth rates and declining youth. Researchers have focused on measuring the consequences this has on the rural parts of China, which have experienced rapid aging as a result of the youth’s move to cities. Yet, few studies have considered that once most of the young people of the country side have been urbanized, they will themselves age and have few children (Yi and Vaupel, 1989; p.435), hence causing an aging population in cities.

(Table 1) Shanghai total population and population over 60 years old 1953¹ 1982² 2000² 2010³ Total Population 6,204,400 11,859,700 16,407,804 23,019,148 Population over 60 yrs old

228,100 1,365,300 2,457,600 3,469,700

Percentage of population over 60 yrs old

3.67% 11.51% 14.97% 15.07%

1. First census; 2. Shanghai Bureau of Statistics; 2010; 3. 2010 Census; Geohive and Shanghai Bureau

of Statistics; 2010 (These population figures include permanent residents and non-permanent)

As the table above suggests, a growing percentage of the population is 60 years old or more. This has dramatic effect on the population structure of Shanghai. Already in 1994, Harper warned that: “The consequences of fertility reduction and increasing life expectancy combine to mean that, by the year 2000, China will enter a quickening ageing phase and, by 2025, a super-ageing phase (Harper, 1994). In that latter period, elderly people, will make up about one-quarter of the population” (Harper, 1994, in Barlett and Phillips, p150). Table 2 below, shows the proportion of the population aged 65 years old or above. (Table 2). Percentage of Shanghai’s permanent population aged 65 and above 2000¹ 2005² 2008³ 20254 Percentage of permanent population 65 and above

11.4 11.9% 21.6% (Aged 60 and

above, no data available

for 65 and above)

Over 25%

1. Population Census, 2010. 2. Sample survey of 1% of Shanghai population 2005. 3. Shanghai

Municipal Government; 2011 4. Harper; 1994. It is hard to find estimates of Shanghai’s population for the future. According to the Shanghai Municipal Government, in 2008, the city’s population of permanent residents saw a natural growth rate of -0.075% (Shanghai Municipal Government; 2011). We have seen that Shanghai gained about 11.2 million inhabitants from 1982 to 2010, while China moved from 20% to 50% urbanization. If we assume that it will take another 30 years to reach 75-80% urbanization rate and that the Chinese population will start declining in the 2030s (UN predictions, see Appendix A), Shanghai’s population could double to about 50 million by 2030 before starting to decline. This is calculated based on a 4% annual compound growth (based on the 4%

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compound growth from 2000-10). Yet, the research of the population institute in Fudan University shows that the limitation of Shanghai’s population is 28 to 30 million people (MenKepei; 2008; p.37). It is also predicted that the accelerated aging process will peak in 2030 (ZhangLi; 2010; p.i). Many predictions indicate that Shanghai’s aged population could represent up to 32.3% of the total population by 2040 (ZhangLi; 2010; p.3).

This historical background and these predictions illustrate the changes that are taking place in Shanghai and justify the importance of considering the elderly in urban planning. Furthermore, I would argue as Lavery et al. (1996) that the elderly will become an increasingly important group to consider as they will represent a large portion of the population, so cities will have to be accessible for them. It is urgent to think about what the built environment and its consequences will be for the elderly, but before answering this, it is worthwhile to note an advantage that Shanghai has in terms of demographics. Shanghai’s elderly population has the advantage of being in fact a relatively young elderly population (between 60 and 75), and hence this population is probably less impaired and more mobile than people 75 and above. This differentiation between aged groups is made by Fobker and Grotz in Bonn, Germany (2006). This will change over the next decades, as more elderly will become old elderly (75 year old and above). Transportation in Shanghai:

In recent years, Shanghai’s transportation system has grown at an astonishing speed. The metro started to operate in 1995, and with almost one new metro/light rail line each year (11 lines, or 434km already functioning) it has already become the longest metro system in the world (Wikipedia; 2011). In addition, with over a thousand bus lines already in use, Shanghai is often said to have one of the fastest growing urban transit system in the world (Wikipedia; 2011). The universal exhibition in 2010 was a great driver for authorities to place Shanghai as an international city and bring it up to standards with other major world cities (UNEP, 2011). With 400,000 visitors daily, and up to 700,000 on peak days, the transportation system had to be modernized and adapted (UNEP, 2011). Yet, it is important to look at the development of transportation in Shanghai and to consider what has been done and what barriers remain for the elderly. Lavery et al (1996), argued that the biggest barriers are not travel barriers but “street barriers” (1996, p182), by this they mean that the problem is often not the transport/mobility, but it is the access to the transport that is hard to reach for elderly. Here I will use the review of these barriers made by Lavery et al., in order to evaluate Shanghai’s challenges with regards to mobility and accessibility. I will identify potential solutions to these problems in the next section. I divided these barriers into two categories: mobility and accessibility. It is important to note that by improving accessibility to elderly, accessibility to all mobility-impaired people improves (i.e.: blind, deaf, handicapped…). It is also relevant to note that not all elderly are disabled. Shanghai, also has an advantage in terms of natural physical environment. This advantage is that it is a relatively flat city, and so its natural features are friendly to elderly, as there are no slopes to climb.

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ANALYSIS: 2. What are or might be the problems with mobility and accessibility of transportation for elderly in Shanghai? And what are solutions/considerations for Shanghai to prepare for its rapidly aging population? There are several barriers that planners need to consider when designing transportation for elderly in cities. I have divided these barriers between mobility and accessibility. We should keep in mind that this list of barriers is non-exhaustive and that some solutions may have effect on each other. This categorization is for the sake of simplicity, but one may find complex crossovers in cities. One should keep in mind that barriers to mobility and accessibility are not only physical barriers. It is often a combination of obstacles that will prevent elderly from moving. Even if this essay focuses on physical barriers in the built environment for transportation mobility and accessibility, urban planners should remember these other barriers and work with policy makers and other actors to break as many barriers as possible.

A) Barriers and solutions to mobility in transport: 1) Mental barriers: set by elderly pertain to mobility. Anxiety may prevent old people from moving around (Lavery et al., 1996). Fobker and Grotz explain that studies have shown that elderly “adjust their expectations downwards out of resignation” (Fobker and Grotz, 2006; p101), and hence create mental barriers that prevents them from moving. The built environment may create the perceived barriers. Solution: This first barrier is not directly related to the built environment but planners may have some influence, even if limited. Mental barriers can be broken by urban planners, by reducing the barriers in the built environment and making it more attractive for elderly to come out. Hiding places and blocked views are to be avoided (Fobker and Grotz; 2008; p.102).

2) Transport mode barriers: a) metro, b) bus, c) taxi, d) bicycle, e) car or f) walk are the transport modes that elderly can choose from, to move around in Shanghai. An elderly, who has to stand in a metro or bus, may be discouraged to ride again. A low taxi may be difficult to rise from for an elderly with flexibility problems. A few years ago the Chinese government started to want to use the car industry as a pillar of the economy, but there is a downside to that. In cities like Guangzhou or Shanghai, cars have been prioritized over bicycles (Lee Yok-shiu F. in Marcotullio and Granahan eds.; 2007; p.196). Shanghai’s car lobby has successfully managed to convince the government that bicycles are competitors to cars and cause accidents, leading to a strong policy by the Shanghai government to drastically reduce bike use to 5% of trips, in a city where just a few years ago 30% of journeys were still made by 9 million bikes (Urban Age, no date). Even if other public transports are developed the rise of motor modes of transport is sure to cause problems for the elderly. Expensive cars will remain unaffordable to them and the pollution generated by traffic will affect them the most. Elderly in Shanghai are often the pedestrians; the pollution will reduce their health and will have effect on their mobility. Obesity could become a greater problem among those who become elderly with cars. As Rosenbloom studied car dependency grows with an aging population and the use of car increases with age (Rosenbloom; 1988). Car ownership among the elder elderly population is still very

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low as the purchase of the vehicle, the purchase of license plates and of the license is extremely expensive for modest incomes, and the car remains a technology for the late middle aged people. As for walking barriers, steps and slippery surfaces may discourage older people to walk. Uneven pavements, gutters, unsmooth drops in kerbs, hills, awkard kerbs, road without crossings and broken pavement stones can all be barriers for elderly with reduced mobility (Lavery et al, 1996; p.189). Solutions: to Transport mode barriers:

a) Metro: The metro in Shanghai is one of the fastest growing in the world, and is reaching each year more parts of the city, making it easier to commute within the city. As it is very modern, most of the stations have been thought with elderly in mind. Most stations have escalators; stairs are equipped with handrails, elevators can be found at most stations. Recently, special boarding/unloading lanes have been created for elderly, as well as at the entrance/exit of the station. The wagons are leveled with the platforms and do not require to lift your feet or step very far.

Shanghai Metro (2011). Sign indicating seats should be given to

elderly, below a screen that is often used to display educational

messages on helping elderly. Picture by WangQi (December 2011),

edited by Vuattoux Romain

Wagons are leveled with platform to facilitate loading and

unloading. Picture by WangQi (December 2011)

A man stands in the mobility impaired priority line. Behind his

feet special surface for visibility impaired people. Picture by

WangQi (December 2011)

Elevator access for mobility impaired. Picture by WangQi

(December 2011)

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Here, the purple exit is reserved for elderly. Picture by WangQi

(December 2011)

Stairs have handrails and escalators take people up or down,

to let them move around the metro stations. The right hand

side of the escalators is reserved for people who stand. Picture

by WangQi (December 2011)

An access ramp for the metro. Picture by WangQi (December 2011)

b) Buses: In the UK and Germany low floor buses have become one way of answering the problem of mobility for the elderly since the 1990s (Lavery et al.; 1996). These have also started to become a norm in Shanghai, although I have never seen any ramp for wheelchair access and drivers rarely make the effort to bring the bus as near as possible to the sidewalk. This could be resolved with a training of the drivers. On the busses there are always a few reserved senior seats; however, the number should be decided according to the usage. I have often been on busses where there were more old people than the amount of reserved seats.

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Bus stops away from platform to pick up passengers.

Picture by WangQi (December 2011)

Bus stop with seats incorporated. Picture by WangQi

(December 2011) c) Taxi: Lavery et al. look at a study from the University of Ulster and conclude

that it appears to remain unproven that rapid transit systems with fixed routes improve mobility for elderly. In fact they argue that it is essential to bring transport to the elderly instead of the elderly to transport (1996, p.184). “A minibus dial-a-ride system for elderly” is an important addition to a bus system which does not necessarily cover all areas where elderly reside (Stutz, 1976; p.400). This can be paired with taxi services, and drivers should be “trained with first aid and briefed on the special needs of elderly passengers” (Stutz, 1976; p.400). These catered services can be facilitated by urban planners with platforms for ordering taxis or climbing in and out, and they should remain affordable to be accessible to all elderly.

Old Shanghai taxi. The lack of places to stop for pick

up/drop off may cause difficulties for mobility impaired

elderly. Picture by WangQi (December 2011)

Old and new Shanghai taxi. The new taxi are easier to

sit in for mobility impaired people as they are higher.

Picture by WangQi (December 2011) d) Bike lanes: Some elderly still use their bicycles, but this is becoming very

dangerous as there are more cars, and as Shanghai often has narrow streets without bike lanes. This is certainly an area where there are great margins for improvement. We have seen that there is an increasing predominance of cars, but urban planners could find ways to let cars and bicycles live together.

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People riding their bicycle under a “no bike” sign as

Shanghai . Picture by WangQi (December 2011)

Here, the bike lane is clearly separated by a yellow line from

the rest of the road. Picture by WangQi (December 2011) e) Cars: The very strong public transport focus of the Shanghai government has

successfully controlled the amount of cars compared to other cities like Beijing (China Environmental Law, 2007). Mobility impaired parking should be planned. What urban planners can do here is to offer alternatives to car travel by creating access to other modes of transport.

f) Walking: For sidewalks and crossings, most surfaces in Shanghai are flat and sidewalks are usually quite large and in good condition, except where there is construction work and although they can be crowded by shop keepers who use them for their display or for motorbike parking. Urban planners should plan for the mixed use of the street but also for parking spaces, and ensure that the surfaces chosen are smooth and safe to be friendly to elderly (Fobker and Grotz; 2008; p.101). Markings on the ground can show the presence of a kerb or a drop. There are very few pedestrian streets in Shanghai, a greater number would encourage elderly to walk (Gant Robert; 1997, p209).

Sidewalk with shading. The pavement is even and smooth

with special tiles are used for visibility impaired walkers.

Picture by WangQi (December 2011)

Sidewalk with shading. The pavement is flat and special

tiles are used for visibility impaired walkers. The little

wall can serve as bench for walkers who need a break

on such a long street. Picture by WangQi (December 2011)

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Public toilet with easy access for mobility impaired people.

Picture by WangQi (December 2011)

A sidewalk crowded by e-bikes may be an obstacle for

elderly walking. Picture by WangQi (December 2011)

Bicycle and e-bike parking can create a barrier between the

road and the sidewalk making elderly feel comfortable to

walk away from cars. Picture by WangQi (December 2011)

Crossings should have lights equipped with sounds and

enough time should be given to cross. Picture by WangQi

(December 2011)

B) Barriers to accessibility to transport: 1) Transportation Costs and living costs may also become barriers for elderly accessibility. Urban planners here again have little influence, but the choices they make in their design and location may affect the cost (ie: time/money) of mobility. Many elderly in Shanghai are without pension, or only receive small pensions (official data unavailable in English). With growing living costs in Shanghai, young couples have to work hence leaving elderly look after their young children before children can go to school. Also, the rapidly increasing prices of real estate in Shanghai, has forced many couples to live with one side of the family (most often the husband’s parents in the patri-lineal tradition), this was already noted by Jersey Liang et al. (1986), and Cooney and Shi (1999) and holds true today more than ever as housing prices skyrocketed in Shanghai. These authors predicted that the support system to the elderly would be put under severe strain as family size shrunk (Liang et al., 1986;

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p.1359). Even if many active couples are not able to look after their parents, there is a strong stigma attached to placing elderly in nursing homes. Even if younger couples support their elderly, most of the day, while they are at work, elderly will be on their own and will need to be mobile and access services by themselves. Urban planners need to play a greater role in planning a built environment to appease the mental barriers and reduce costs for mobility and accessibility of transportation. Solution: A reduction, through subsidy of living costs and health costs for elderly, for instance discount for senior citizens on public transport, may have great effects on lifting barriers to accessibility. Yet even though this is not directly related to the built environment, planners may have some influence as they can choose the mode of transport favored. As transport is more affordable, it will be more accessible. Planners, can enhance the accessibility of elderly in this regard by locating bus and metro stations near services and housing used by elderly as this can help reduce costs (time or money) for elderly. In Shanghai, nursing homes and retirement homes need to be considered by urban planners as a growing solution to an aging population. On a national level, back in 1984, 0.33% of the over 65 population was institutionalized (Liang et al, 1986; p.1360). Today the capacity of nursing homes for elderly is of 1.8% of the elderly and the Chinese government plans to raise that to 3% by 2016, in just five years, yet it is important to note this is far from the 5-7% in Western countries (China Daily, 2011). These institutions will need to be surrounded with easy transportation access, to enable aged people to still move even if they are institutionalized, and so that they can easily be visited. 2) Public space design: The access to bus stops, and metro stations, but also safe sidewalks and bicycle lanes should make it easy for elderly to access transport. The time signals at intersections could be too short to allow enough time for elderly to cross (Satariano, 1997). The park’s amenities are often geared towards use by elderly, however, recent parks such as Century park in Pudong, are commodified and require a fee to enter. David Harvey would see in this the uneven geographical development caused by capitalism, but it does not only penalize poor, but also elderly who are primary users in China of such parks. If shops move away from neighborhoods where elderly live, it will become harder for elderly to look after themselves, and it may produce a disincentive for them to go out of their home. A worrying trend in Shanghai, has been the “modernization” of the city. There has been a distinctive policy to create suburban “quiet” places on a Western model (as in Pudong), leading to a greater dependence on cars (Urban Age, n.d.), if elderly are moved there or move by themselves they often feel disoriented and disconnected from their traditional environment. Pudong and Songjiang district are both great example of this, with their large avenues, comfortable individual homes and great car dependency. Yet, the dense city center remains popular with elderly who feel more attached to the old city and find it more convenient (Urban Age, n.d.). This creates a duality with tensions between old and new, and rich and poor that could become problematic in the future. Solutions: It is important planners continue to plan free green public spaces that elderly may use to gather near where they reside, as this encourages them to get out and keeps them healthy as highlighted in the study by Takano et al. (2002) on green spaces. Shuttemeyer, Fobker et al. argue along similar lines that to counter the

17

negative effects of urban sprawl and “in order to integrate these groups of the elderly, it is important to maintain and/or create leisure offers in living areas as well as to safeguard a minimum offer of public transportation” (Schuttemeyer, Fobker et al.; 2004’ p.18). Once again this demonstrates the importance of land use planning by urban planners. Lavery et al. argue that we need an interdisciplinary approach in order to answer the above problems, so they call for all professionals of the built environment to find solutions (1996, p.189). This approach could help design more accessible public spaces which could help elderly stay fit and minimize risks of injury. Urban planners should also ensure that many benches or small walls that can serve as benches are available on the streets while avoiding steps. Easy access to public toilets may also help elderly feel comfortable leaving their homes. Planting large trees to cover the streets and public spaces used by elderly will provide cover and cooling from the heat of the summer (Shanghai is very hot in the summer). According to Fobker and Grotz, mental barriers can be brought down by ensuring that neighborhoods offer social embeddedness and access to outdoors, with access to recreational and basic supply facilities, as well as options to withdraw (2006; p.101). Schuttemeyer, Fobker et al. discovered in their studies that “compact and mixed multifunctional city”, “strong centers” and “cities of short distances” promote the autonomy and elderly mobility while also being desirable from a social and ecological point of view (2004; p.27). The role of urban planners here is clear, as they can influence the attractiveness and social life quality of a neighborhood or public space.

An old downtown residential area, with strong

social embeddness and easy access to shopping and

services. Note that the housing is of poor quality on

this picture. Dense with mix use. Picture from “From

streets from heart”(May 2011)

http://fromstreetsfromhearts.blogspot.com/2011/05/urb

an-renewal-shanghai-today-10.html

Pudong car dependent residential area, dense without mix

use. Picture from The Borneo post (December 2011)

http://www.theborneopost.com/2012/01/06/property-outlook-to-r

emain-challenging/houses-are-seen-at-a-residential-area-of-pud

ong-in-shanghai/

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION:

We have seen clear indications of a rapidly aging population in Shanghai, and this demonstrates the importance of planning for this group. The historical changes that have taken place show that it will be impossible to deal with such dramatic changes

18

without planning for them. We have seen how sustainable urban development requires urban planners to consider all groups of society, and how it requires urban planners to plan for future generations (i.e.: elderly). William A. Satariano’s stated that: “[…] the physical environment can either enhance or impede the independence and mobility of older people” (1997, p.331). This statement sums up efficiently the importance for planners to think about the barriers we reviewed above. Physical environment and land use planning go hand in hand to break these barriers. To some extent Shanghai’s density could play in its favor, for instance by allowing efficient public transportation. Nevertheless the most modern districts of Pudong or Songjiang, with very little mixed zoning and a predominance of residential areas will certainly show an increasing car dependency for elderly, along with a decrease in mobility and accessibility. In addition, we have seen that an interdisciplinary approach needs to be considered as several other aspects of elderly life may influence mobility and accessibility for elderly, for instance: security; service to elderly; policy; health, all of these areas are somewhat influenced by urban planners and have effects or are interconnected to mobility and accessibility. Each of them is a field of study in themselves requiring further research. It seems that Shanghai’s newest development has seen both good examples (e.g.: the metro) and bad examples (e.g.: the new residential areas of Pudong) of what can be done to improve accessibility for elderly. The barriers to mobility and accessibility described above can and must be broken down by urban planners to prepare cities like Shanghai with rapidly ageing populations to host more elderly. The results obtained from my research show that although the aging population problem in developing countries is something understudied, solutions already exist in western cities as well as in Shanghai. An interesting question can then be raised: How has the centralized urban planning approach worked to deal with the changes that need to take place in Shanghai? This question would need a lot more research to be answered and deserves long discussions. However, this essay offers the beginning of an answer to it in a way of concluding. Shanghai has a long tradition of land use planning going back to 1927 (Peter Abelson, no date). As the efficient planning of the metro system demonstrates, a centralized approach to planning can be very successful at providing access to elderly and other mobility impaired people. It seems that one of the great advantages of Shanghai is that its strong centralized urban planning approach offers long-term and large scale vision necessary to answer the size of the challenge faced by Shanghai. Also, it enables policy and planning to work hand in hand. Both are recommended solutions from my research. The strength of Shanghai appears to be its ability to design spaces and also place the right incentives or educate elderly and young to use those spaces. The world expo had a strong impact on improving the public transport system and certainly pushed the Shanghai government and its planners to think about mobility and accessibility for mobility impaired people (UNEP, 2011). There is space for more debate and research on this question. It seems evident that Shanghai wishes to develop sustainably and that it has no other choice considering its size. To that end, it will need to consider all its citizens, and it may have to conserve its centralized approach while resisting the financial market forces. This is a challenge that will determine the success of Shanghai in preparing for its

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aging population. Will Shanghai serve as a successful model for other cities in China? ACKNOWLEDGEMENT:

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from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Metro; [Accessed: January 10, 2012]

Appendix A: Population statistics China 2000-2040 China

Demographic profile; Constant-fertility variant; 2000-2060

Indicator 2000 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040

Population (thousands) 1 269 11

7 1 341 33

5 1 398 16

5 1 409 20

4 1 407 09

2 1 373 10

3

Male population (thousands) 657 419 696 341 725 509 730 309 727 964 707 735

Female population (thousands) 611 698 644 994 672 656 678 894 679 128 665 368

Population sex ratio (males per 100

females) 107.5 108.0 107.9 107.6 107.2 106.4

Percentage aged 0-4 (%) 7.6 6.1 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.3

Percentage aged 5-14 (%) 17.9 13.4 11.7 11.4 10.6 9.0

Percentage aged 15-24 (%) 15.5 16.8 12.7 11.6 11.6 10.8

Percentage aged 60 or over (%) 10.2 12.3 17.2 20.0 24.2 29.1

Percentage aged 65 or over (%) 7.0 8.2 11.9 13.9 16.3 23.1

Percentage aged 80 or over (%) 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.8 4.7

Median age (years) 29.7 34.5 37.8 39.8 42.1 46.1

Population density (population per sq. km) 132 140 146 147 147 143

Data from: http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm

China

Demographic profile; Constant-fertility variant; (Total fertility: 1.64 children per woman) 2000-2040

Indicator 2000-2

005 2005-2

010 2010-2

015 2015-2

020 2020-2

025 2025-2

030 2030-2

035 2035-2

040

Population change per year

(thousands) 7 695 6 748 6 531 4 835 2 208 -422 -2 528 -4 269

Population growth rate (%) 0.60 0.51 0.48 0.35 0.16 -0.03 -0.18 -0.31

Total fertility (children per woman) 1.70 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64

Life expectancy at birth, both sexes

combined (years) 71.6 72.7 73.8 74.7 75.6 76.4 77.2 77.9

Life expectancy at birth, males

(years) 70.0 71.1 72.1 73.0 73.8 74.6 75.3 76.0

Life expectancy at birth, females

(years) 73.4 74.5 75.6 76.7 77.6 78.4 79.2 79.9

Data from: http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm