Contents

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Meet thecampaignworkers out tosway publicopinion

A look atScotland’sFuture: SNpvision ofwhat might be

£500 betteror worse off— that’s thefigure set tosway the vote

Energy powersmuch of thedebate onScotland’sfuture

Big questionssurroundingthe defenceof a newScottish realm

Our ReferendumRoadshow willbe with youevery step ofthe way

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Big questions Our ReferendumOur Referendum £500 better Energy powers

Yes or no? Meet the workers hoping to sway your opinion

How theworld

sees ourreferendum

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The message from the Hope Street-based campaign group is simple: vote Yes. Picture: Barrie Marshall.

Blair JenkinS: YesScotland’s chief executivecomes from a TV newsbackground. He was directorof broadcasting at STV andhead of news and currentaffairs at both the commercialchannel and BBC Scotland.

Jenkins, who was madean OBE for services tobroadcasting in the Queen’sBirthday Honours List 2010,also chaired the ScottishBroadcasting Commissionand the Scottish DigitalNetwork Panel.

He is not a member of anypolitical party and has notpreviously been involved withany political campaign.

DenniS Canavan: TheFifer has been elected forboth the Labour Party andas an independent. Born inCowdenbeath, he was FalkirkWest MP from 1974 until2000.

A devolution campaignerthroughout his time atWestminster, Canavan wasrejected by Labour whenhe attempted to stand as aHolyrood candidate in 1999,despite the support of 97% ofhis local members.

S t a n d i n g a s a nindependent, he had thebiggest majority of anyScottish parliamentarian inboth the 1999 and 2003elections. Canavan stooddown in 2007.

niCola STurgeon:Deputy First Minister anddeputy leader of the SNP,Sturgeon is the most highprofile member of YesScotland’s advisory board.

Having been elected in thefirst Holyrood vote of 1999via the regional list, she wonher first constituency seat in2007 as the SNP becamethe biggest single party in theScottish Parliament whenSturgeon was appointedDeputy First Minister andHealth Secretary.

She is Cabinet Secretaryfor Infrastructure. Many seeher as thenatural successor toAlex Salmond as party leader.

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCEmay be the biggest item onthe political agenda in the UK,but overseas the battle for thefuture of the UK is viewed asa curio, rather than a world-changing event.

Newspapers across theplanet are covering thereferendum with an air ofbemused detachment.

The Washington Post didprovoke a response from FirstMinister Alex Salmond when,in December 2012, it saidindependencewouldharm theUnited States by weakeningthe UK, a key security partner.

Mr Salmond wrote tothe paper to claim it hadmade several factual errors.However, the paper is notconvinced the Yes campaignwill win.

Writing in the paper lastmonth, Max Fisher said: “Itlooks like the economics andpoor timing will have trumpedone of the longest-runningindependence campaigns inEuropean history.

“A cautionary tale from(satirical website) The Onion:“‘Watch out, Scotland, we didthe same thing, and look howthat turned out.”

Other US papers also havetheir doubts, with the WallStreet Journal’s Simon Nixonunsure about the ScottishGovernment’s currency plans.

He stated: “Scotland’sbest bet may lie in a variantof the Belgium-LuxembourgEconomic Union, which wasestablished in 1922 andlasted until the euro’s creation.

“Scotland would need tocreate its own currency butcommit to binding it so tightlyto the pound that the twocould be freely accepted bothsides of the border.

“This would minimise

YES SCOTLAND’S home onGlasgow’s Hope Street passed meby at first. Rather I passed it by,managing to miss the giant Y E S

stickers across three windows (which arearound hip height, in fairness) as I searchedfor the campaign group’s headquarters.

Once finally inside and away from thewest’s incessant wet weather, the receptionarea is exactly as you would expect. Brightand modern with comfy seats there is evena ledge of iPads, which are presumably forpunters’pleasure.

One of the stands is missing a tabletbut perhaps it would be unfair to assumesomeone has decided to take home morethan the pro-independence message.

The HQ is very much open plan beyondthe reception area, with one giant “hub”hosting a variety of activists, press officers,designers and strategists.

Thereareafewemptydesksbut,althoughit’s not something I would have paidparticular attention to, I’m proactively tolda few folk have called in sick, whilst othersare out “on the ground”. Is that a convenientcoincidence?Let’s justsayanother journalistI’ve spoken to claims to have had the sameline recited to them when inYes HQ.

A theme is starting to emerge, though.Green Party member Ross Greer says theoffice may be a central point to converge on,but reckons the campaign would carry onjustaswell if theGlasgowgroundswallowedHope Street up tomorrow.

“Therearegenuinely tensof thousandsofpeopleout thereoutdoingstuff themselves,”he said.

“We provided them with a system wherewetried tomakeHQnotobsolete,but it’snotnecessary for them to be in constant contactwith us.

Mr Greer adds: “Largely the local groupsare organised by some fantastic people sowehavefaith in them.Therearesomeplaceswhere we don’t need to know what they’reup to because we know it will be absolutelyfantastic.

“Dundee is a good exampleof a group wherethere are someof the best grassroots organisers inScotland.”

Barely a lickof paint on the

whitewash walls is visible in the office, withmodified posters featuring superheroes andscience fiction cult heroes instead taking upmost of the space around the room.

Isuppose ifSpockcan’tconvinceyouandthe X-Men’s Wolverine can’t threaten youinto supporting independence then you’reprobably not going to be talked round.

In keeping with the sci-fi theme, ourphotographer and I pick out the signaturesof Dundee’s Brian Cox and Carnoustieraised Alan Cumming (they were both inthe second X-Men film, non-geeks) ona giant whiteboard first unveiled at the

launch of Yes Scotland.The board now stretches over

three panels and is adorned byscribbles from the big name stars

such as those mentionedabove, leadingpoliticiansandon-the-ground campaigners.

But is the Yes message really gettingthrough to ordinary people? The group’schief executive Blair Jenkins insists it is.

“I have believed for some time that this isa referendumthatwouldbewoncommunity

by community, street by street, and that’swhat’s happening.

“I think what’s happening is that thesense of theYes campaign on the ground,and I think in particular in terms of socialmedia, is now proving quite an advantageforusandweareveryencouragedbywhat’shappening in our own research and beingpicked up by most of the opinion polls.”

What is striking about all of the peopleI speak to in the Hope Street HQ is theirenthusiasm and unwavering belief in thecause. Despite difficulties in the polls, thereis certainly no lack of optimism here.

Then I step outside, reality bites and it’sraining.The irony isn’t lost.

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCEmay be the biggest item onthe political agenda in the UK,

“Dundee is a good exampleof a group wherethere are someof the best grassroots organisers in

a giant whiteboard first unveiled at thelaunch of Yes Scotland.

The board now stretches overthree panels and is adorned byscribbles from the big name stars

such as those mentionedabove, leadingpoliticiansandon-the-ground campaigners.

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE may be the biggest item onthe political agenda in the UK,

“Dundee is a good exampleof a group wherethere are someof the best grassroots organisers in

a giant whiteboard first unveiled at thelaunch of Yes Scotland.

The board now stretches overthree panels and is adorned byscribbles from the big name stars

such as those mentioned

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the X-Men’s Wolverine can’t threaten youinto supporting independence then you’re

In keeping with the sci-fi theme, our

by community, street by street, and that’swhat’s happening.

sense of theYes campaign on the ground,and I think in particular in terms of socialmedia, is now proving quite an advantageforusandweareveryencouragedbywhat’shappening in our own research and beingpicked up by most of the opinion polls.”

I speak to in the Hope Street HQ is theirenthusiasm and unwavering belief in thecause. Despite difficulties in the polls, thereis certainly no lack of optimism here.

raining.The irony isn’t lost.

Dog days ahead or just goingto the dogs? Picture: PA.

by Kieran Andrews

by Stefan Morkis

Yes

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Just part of the mass mailing beingprepared by the Better Together team.

Ian Young, oneof the workerspreparingliterature forposting. Pictures:Barrie Marshall.

BlaIr McDougall: BetterTogether’s campaign director,McDougall is a Labouractivist with experience of theWestminster machine.

He was a special adviserto both Ian McCartney andJames Purnell between 2004and 2008 while both TonyBlair and Gordon Brownserved as Prime Minister.

McDougall also ran DavidMiliband’s campaign for theLabour Party leadership,where he lost out to youngerbrother Ed, before joiningBetter Together.

alIsTaIr DarlIng: Theex-Labour Chancellor isde-facto campaign leader,although his title is officiallychairman.

Dar l i ng has beenEdinburgh South West’s MPsince 1987, holding the topjob at theTreasury from2007to 2010, which saw himcaught in the eye of the stormwhen the worldwide financialcrisis hit Britain.

Darlingwasalsooneof onlythree people to have servedin the CabinetcontinuouslyfromLabour’svictory in1997 untilits defeat in2010. Theothers wereGordon Brownand JackStraw.

JackIe BaIllIe: The MSPfor Dumbarton is Labour’sShadow Cabinet Secretary forSocial Justice, Equalities andWelfare.

She was one of Holyrood’s“Class of ‘99”, being electedas part of the first-ever intakeof MSPs. Prior to this sheworked in both the public andvoluntary sector.

Baillie campaigned hardfor the Scottish Parliamentto mitigate the effects ofthe so-called bedroom tax,eventually negotiating withFinance Secretary JohnSwinney ahead of proposalsbeing brought forward.

“YOU’LL HAVE to excuse the mess, we’rein the middle of moving,” was the warningI received before going “inside” BetterTogether.

That’s difficult to believe when you stepinside the Blythswood Square HQ thatis in the process of being vacated. It’s animpressive traditional building in Glasgow,where the reception area is immaculate andtheboardroomiscompletewithroaringfire.

It’s when the journey takes me into the“working areas” that the signs of transitionappear.There are quite a few boxes piled up,waiting to be moved. To be honest, though,it’s no worse than any place which has hadthe misfortune for me to set up working at itfor more than five minutes.

There is still plenty of work going on inthe main hub of the office being cleared outas researchers and press officers crack onwith their jobs.

Looking around the room, some buntingis particularly eye catching amongst theposters and economic charts.

BetterTogetherandbunting?Boundtobethe Union Flag, right?Wrong. Saltires hangfrom the wall.

I’ve previously heard activists say “Yesdon’towntheSaltire”and itwouldseemthissmall act is part of that defiant narrative.

Sohowmucharetheemotionalargumentsplaying on people’s mind when they areconsideringhowtocast theirvotesixmonthsfrom now? BetterTogether chief executive,Blair McDougall, doesn’t think it holdsmuch sway with those who are undecided.

The group has used “the biggest, mostsophisticated piece of voter research inScottish political history” to identifyundecided voters they need to convinceto vote No. The Courier understands thisincludes, in particular, people inFifeand theLothians.

“What’s happened over the last twoyears of campaigning is that opinion hassolidified in both sides’core vote,” said MrMcDougall.

He added: “They are concerned aboutthe security of the NHS, they are concernedabout losing the stability of the pound andthey’re worried about job security but they

are people from all sorts of differentbackgrounds.”

Walking down to the newbase of operations for BetterTogether and there is moreof a campaign feel, notleast because there areover a dozen volunteersfolding letters intoaddressed envelopesfor distribution around600,000 householdsacross the country.

One activist, Jon Jeffressfrom Dunblane, says he hasbeen travelling west once a week

Campaigners from both camps are hard at work

the ‘border effect’ damageto trade between the twocountries, higher transactioncosts and risk of capitalflight from introducing a newcurrency; but it would leaveScotland with no control overexchange and interest rates,and its banks without accessto a lender of last resort.”

Although he said Scotlandcould prosper under thisarrangement, he warned:“The fiscal disciplineneeded to make such asolution credible would bechallenging, most likelyrequiringScotland to runboth

budget and current accountsurpluses.” Yet an analysisby the National Instituteof Economic and SocialResearch, a non-partisanBritish think tank, concludedthat based on a per capitadivision of UK debt, anindependent Scotland wouldfacea tougher fiscal challengethan the rest of the UK givenits aging population, evenassuming a benign scenariofor North Sea oil revenues.

“That suggests the actualfreedom an independentScotland might enjoy wouldbe limited to hard choices.

Until Mr Salmond startsspelling some of those out, itis he who is vulnerable to thecharge of bluster.”

European papers are alsounsure about many of the Yescamp’s claims.

French daily newspaper LeFigaro says that many of theanswers found in the WhitePaper on independenceregarding issues such ascurrency and borders are“struggling to convince”.

In Germany, Der Spiegel’sChristoph Scheurmannsays the referendum is anexample of the dissolution of

UK society. He wrote: “Theeconomic crisis has causedthe UK to drift apart, creatingever-widening rifts betweenrich and poor, native andimmigrant, English and Scot.With the anti-Europe UKIPparty on the rise,GreatBritainstands at a crossroads.”

Danish paper Berlingskesays Alex Salmond’s skillsas a politician may be a keyfactor. It states: “All politiciansseem to fear direct discussionwith the Scottish leader. Evenhis opponents describe himasamanwhocould sell snowto Eskimos.”

three people to have servedin the CabinetcontinuouslyfromLabour’svictory in1997 untilits defeat in2010. Theothers wereGordon Brownand Jack

for almost a year to help thecampaign in any way that hecan.

The 63-year-old retiredStirling Council employee said:“Different people have theirown arrangements so you don’talways meet the same people.

“Today I’ve met people Ihaven’tmetbeforeandwearealldedicated to the same ideal.”

In a side room of the whitewalled main room there’s a

meetinggoingon. I’mtold it’sagatheringofAcademics Together and can only imaginethe lofty discussions.

The new office is certainly moreaccessible. On the bustling SauchiehallStreet, it’s only a five-minute stroll fromwhere Better Together has spent thecampaign so far but seems a world away interms of atmosphere.

If the idea is to bring the message to thepeople, it’s a better place to be.

This visit to Glasgow is a singularlysunnyaffair and theoptimismseems tohaverubbed off on those campaigning for a Novote. The message thus far has been “nocomplacency” and, while thatphrase isused

Just part of the mass mailing beingprepared by the Better Together team.

are people from all sorts of different

Walking down to the newbase of operations for BetterTogether and there is moreof a campaign feel, notleast because there are

One activist, Jon Jeffressfrom Dunblane, says he hasbeen travelling west once a week

by Kieran Andrews

during my visit, there is more confidencedisplayed than I have previously seen duringthecampaigntodate.Will thatbewellplacedcome September?

betteR

tOgetHeR

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SCOTLAND’S FUTUREis policy-heavy, with anumber of key SNP offers totry to tempt the electorateto vote Yes at its forefront.

At the fore f ront isthe “transformational”extension of free childcarethat would see every threeand four-year-old andvulnerable two-year-oldsentitled to 1,140 hours offree care a year.

C r i t i c s ha v e s a i dthis is do-able underdevolution but the ScottishGovernment insists it needsfull access to the revenuessuch a pol icy wouldpotentially bring in to theExchequer.

There was also anattempt to appeal to thosefrustrated by spirallingbills, with a policy set outwhereby responsibil i tyfor green levies wouldbe moved to centra lgove rnmen t t o savehouseholders £70 a year.

That assumed the restof the UK would continueto suppor t Scotland’srenewables industry in theevent of a Yes vote.

The white paper laid outno plan B on currency, witha so-called Sterling zonewith the rest of the UK theonly monetary policy putforward.

It also asserted thatScotland would negotiatefor a smooth transition toformal European Union(EU) statehood in its ownright by independence dayin 2016.

Other SNP plans after aYes vote include scrappingthe controversial so-calledbedroom tax and removingTrident nuclear weaponsfrom Scotland by 2021,within the first term of anindependent parliament.

The document also rulesout border checks despitesetting out a more relaxedstance on immigration thanthe UK Government.

THE 677 pages of the Scotland’sFuture, the White Paper onindependence, have proven asdivisive as almost any individual

issue on the campaign.Does the document provide the

information voters need to make up theirmind come September? Is its £1.3 millionprice tag good value?

Is it, as First MinisterAlex Salmond saidat its launch: “the most comprehensiveblueprint for an independent country everpublished, not just for Scotland but for anyprospective independent nation”?

Given the Scottish Government saysmore than 100,000 copies have beenordered — just shy of 58,000 in digitalformat and almost 57,000 as a hard copy— it would seem a large number of peopleare devouring its contents with six monthsstill to go until the referendum.

The White Paper puts forward twocases for a Yes vote over its 10 chapters.One is the “gains from independence —whichever party is elected” and the other,more controversial given taxpayers’moneyhas funded the document, is “gains fromindependence — if we (the SNP) arethe first government of an independentScotland”.

Sometimes the distinction is difficultto spot, with economic and ideologicalarguments intertwined throughout theweighty publication.

The first chapter sums this up neatly,with “The Case for Independence”including technical issues such as thetransition and SNP policy like keeping theQueen as the head of state — something

that doesn’t sit easily with quite a numberin theYes campaign.

That transition between Yes vote andScotland separating from the rest of theUK is estimated to take around 18 months,with a provisional “independence day” setout as March 24 2016 in Scotland’s Future.

According to the document, thatleaves time for a delegation, led by theFirst Minister but with the support of“figures from across Scottish public lifeand Scotland’s other political parties”,to negotiate with the rest of the UK, theEU and other international organisationsahead of the already scheduled Scottishparliamentary elections in May 2016.

Chapters two and three of the WhitePaper deal with Scotland’s finances andthe economy, including the controversialassertion that there will be a currencyunion between Scotland and the rest ofthe UK after aYes vote. This idea has beenrejected by Westminster’s main parties butthe Scottish Government maintains theyare “bluffing”.

The next two sections cover health,education and employment and includethe flagship childcare pledge that wouldsee every three and four-year-old andvulnerable two-year-olds entitled to1,140 hours of free care a year.

International relations, defence, justiceand security and the environment areall covered in separate sections, with theprospect of the return of the Black Watchand air capacity at Leuchars dangled butnot committed to.

T h e c h a p t e r o n C u l t u r e ,Communications and Digital proposes

The Scottish Government’s White Paper onindependence was supposed to be a referendumgame-changer but what impact has it had with thepublic? Kieran Andrews, political editor investigates

the foundation of ScottishBroadcasting Service(SBS), a new publicservice broadcaster,which would create itsown output and engagein “trades” with theBBC to screen the likesof Doctor Who and StrictlyCome Dancing north of theborder.

Chapter 10 talks moreabout the transition toindependence, confirmsthe same number ofMSPs would be kept atHolyrood despite theextra workload, thecreation of a writtenconstitution andextension of votingrights to 16 and17-year-olds.

Then there arethe 650 questions,with answers,that round thedocument off.There is plentythere to mull over,although fun hasbeen poked at theneed to outlinewhich side of theroad we woulddrive on, what timezone an independentScotland would be inand what the nationalanthem would be(Flower of Scotland, justin case).

But what happens if, aspolls seem to be suggesting,and there is a No vote? Thatis less clear. All the three mainunionist parties are offering moredevolution but exactly what has notbeen spelled out.

One thing for sure is that further powerswill be arriving through the Scotland Act2012, which comes into force across nextyear and 2016.

This includes the setting up of a“Scottish rate” of income tax and givesHolyrood the power to scrap stamp duty,which Finance Secretary John Swinneyhas already said will result in a tax on landtransactions being introduced in its place.

Beyond that? The Liberal Democratswant a federal UK, Labour’s devolutioncommission will spell out its plans at theparty conference in Perth this weekendand the Scottish Conservatives areexpected to outline their party’s proposalsin the summer. There is not cross-partyagreement, though.Scotland’s Future talks of extending voting rights for 16 and 17-year-olds.

pages, Scotland’sFuture (above)is undeniably aweighty tome.

party conference in Perth this weekendand the Scottish Conservatives are

well over 600pages, Scotland’s

independence was supposed to be a referendumgame-changer but what impact has it had with the

, political editor investigatesthe foundation of ScottishBroadcasting Service(SBS), a new publicservice broadcaster,which would create itsown output and engagein “trades” with theBBC to screen the likesof Doctor Who and StrictlyCome Dancing north of the

Chapter 10 talks moreChapter 10 talks moreabout the transition toindependence, confirmsthe same number of

anthem would be(Flower of Scotland, just

But what happens if, aspolls seem to be suggesting,and there is a No vote? Thatis less clear. All the three mainunionist parties are offering moredevolution but exactly what has not

One thing for sure is that further powerswill be arriving through the Scotland Act2012, which comes into force across next

This includes the setting up of a“Scottish rate” of income tax and givesHolyrood the power to scrap stamp duty,which Finance Secretary John Swinneyhas already said will result in a tax on landtransactions being introduced in its place.

Beyond that? The Liberal Democratswant a federal UK, Labour’s devolutioncommission will spell out its plans at theparty conference in Perth this weekend

independence was supposed to be a referendumgame-changer but what impact has it had with the

, political editor investigatesthe foundation of Scottish

in “trades” with theBBC to screen the likesof Doctor Who and StrictlyCome Dancing north of theCome Dancing north of the

Chapter 10 talks moreabout the transition toindependence, confirms

But what happens if, aspolls seem to be suggesting,polls seem to be suggesting,and there is a No vote? Thatand there is a No vote? Thatis less clear. All the three mainis less clear. All the three mainunionist parties are offering moreunionist parties are offering moredevolution but exactly what has notdevolution but exactly what has not

One thing for sure is that further powersOne thing for sure is that further powerswill be arriving through the Scotland Actwill be arriving through the Scotland Act2012, which comes into force across next

This includes the setting up of a“Scottish rate” of income tax and givesHolyrood the power to scrap stamp duty,which Finance Secretary John Swinneyhas already said will result in a tax on landtransactions being introduced in its place.

Beyond that? The Liberal Democratswant a federal UK, Labour’s devolutioncommission will spell out its plans at theparty conference in Perth this weekend

Running towell over 600

Sweetenersdesigned toentice votersinto the‘Yes’ camp

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FOUR MONTHS ago theWhite Paper was launchedwith the promise it wouldanswer all the electorate’squestions about life in anindependent Scotland. Buthow much of it has stood thetest of the campaign so far?

One of the most repeatedstatistics was that Scotlandcontributed 9.9 per cent ofUK tax receipts in 2012 butwas given only 9.6 per cent ofspending.

However, the mostrecently-published data fromGovernment Expenditure andRevenue Scotland showed9.3 per cent of UK spendingwas received north of theborder, while the countrycontributed 9.1 per cent oftaxes.

Another major pointwas economic analysisfrom the Organisation forEconomic Co-operation andDevelopment. The WhitePaper said: “Amongst OECDeconomies, it is estimatedScotland would be rankedeighth in terms of output perhead.”

In fact, new figures sawScotland ranked 14th. It’sworth pointing out it stilloutstripped the UK as awhole’s performance by fourplaces.

Another central point wasthe currency an independentScotland would use. TheScottish Government hasremained steadfast that aformal currency union wouldbe set up with the rest of theUK in the wake of a Yes vote.

That’s despite it being ruledout by Chancellor GeorgeOsborne, Chief Secretary tothe Treasury Danny Alexanderand Shadow Chancellor EdBalls.

Economic experts varyin their opinion as to whatwould be best in our walletsbut if there’s a Yes vote andrealpolitik comes into play onthis issue, itwill be fascinatingto see who blinks first.

A pro-independence rally in Edinburgh.

So whoseprojectionsare standingup better toscrutiny?

SNPleadership

duo AlexSalmond

and NicolaSturgeon.

leadershipduo AlexSalmond

and NicolaSturgeon.

leadership

and Nicola

Health will be a key considerationfor older voters.

The price of our futureThe Courier & AdverTiser Tuesday, March 18, 2014RefeRendum20146

Five hundred pounds (Sterling). That’s how much money will make a difference to voting intentions in the independence referendum.

A survey carried out last year found 52% of Scots would vote Yes if it made them £500 a year better off. Conversely, if it was to make people £500 a year poorer then only 15% say they would still vote for independence.

in other words: put ideology and nationalism, either British or Scottish, to one side because the referendum will be decided on what it puts into — or takes out of — voters’ pockets.

The economy and jobs have long been the most important factors for voters in the independence debate and that will continue right up until September 18.

For Yes voters, there are

plenty of strong economic reasons to leave the uK.

Over the last 32 years, Scotland has contributed more tax per head of population than the rest of the uK. in 2011/12 Scots generated £10,700 of tax revenues per head, compared to £9,000 for the rest of the uK.

And Scotland spends a lower proportion of that income on pensions, welfare and other public services. Over the last five years Scotland’s fiscal accounts have been stronger than the uK’s as a whole by £12.6 million — around £2,400 for every person in the country. Of course the one crucial caveat is that these figures do not take into account deficits or debts — should an independent Scotland agree to assume its share of debt.

The SnP would also like to banish Trident, a move

that would free up a “nuclear dividend” of £500 million to spend on public services.

S c o t l a n d ’ s G r o s s domestic Product is also higher than the uK’s when oil is taken into account.

Onshore GdP in 2012 was £126 billion — £4,230 per head but this rose to to £128.2 billion (£24,653) per head when the offshore economy is taken into account.

The SnP also claims that Scotland’s fair share of uK debt is £100 billion by 2016/17, 6.4% of the total debt of £1.6 trillion.

This is based on the total net contributions to the uK deficit since 1981, when north Sea oil and gas production began.

But even taking in a per capita share of the debt — which would be £30 billion greater — Scotland would have a lower debt to GdP

ratio than the rest of the uK thanks to north Sea oil. however, these models rely on oil prices and output staying at the same level or higher.

The latest Government expenditure and revenue Scotland (GerS) data published this month showed why oil price vo lat i l i ty can be so damaging. For months the Yes campaign had claimed Scotland contributed 9.9% of uK tax receipts in 2012 but only receive 9.6% of public spending.

But a 40% drop in the price of oil meant that Scotland contributed only 9.1% of taxes in return for 9.3% of public spending.

And there are other factors to consider. As an independent country, Scotland would have to bear the cost of setting up the infrastructure necessary

to support an entirely new country.

Whether it is embassies and consulates abroad, a Scottish version of the dvLA or other institutions, all would take considerable investment to recreate.

The SnP’s preferred option is, like Sterling, to continue sharing these with the rest of the uK.

There is no doubt that, looking at the balance sheet alone, Scotland could not only afford to become independent, it would be an extremely wealthy country.

in fact, the argument that Scotland is “too wee, too poor and too stupid” is regarded as irrelevant by both sides of the debate.

But whether remote concepts such as better GdP or a smaller deficit per head are enough to sway undecided voters will only be known on September 19.

The Yes campaign has been built on the economic arguments for independence, says Stefan Morkis — but do the figures add up and what does it mean for you?

How much taxation? Who knows?

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hOW muCh Scots would pay in tax after independence remains unknown and, to a large degree, unknowable.

The Scottish Parliament will already receive more tax-raising powers under the Scotland Act 2012, even if it votes against leaving the uK.

it will be given limited ability to adjust income tax and have control over Land and Buildings Transaction Tax, which is replacing duty and Land taxes.

The Scottish Parliament will also control landfill tax and continue to control council and business tax. But in the event of independence all taxes will be set by the party of government — and that is why questions can’t be answered.

According to the White Paper, parties would put forward their tax plans in their manifestos for the 2016 elections in Scotland. Only the SnP has put forward its vision.

The White Paper claims that Scotland could continue to enjoy the same services it does today without any tax increases post-independence.

The SnP also offers tax cuts, claiming it would increase personal allowances and tax credits by inflation each year, although tax allowances being introduced for married couples will be scrapped.

And they want to cut Air Passenger duty to 50% of its current level before it is eventually scrapped.

The White Paper also states corporation tax in an independent Scotland would be kept 3% below the uK rate.

Alex Salmond often cites countries such as norway as examples for Scotland to follow. however, they enjoy higher public spending because of their punitive tax rates. in norway, corporation tax is 28%, which will be 11 points higher than Scotland’s if the uK rate remains at 20%. Similarly, both income tax and vAT are also higher.

And while the average wage in norway is also higher than the uK’s, it is only by around $6,000 a year more.

And, earlier this month, mr Salmond more or less ruled out the return of a 50p top tax rate if Scotland wins independence, saying the country would need to remain “competitive”.

nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman expects Scots would pay less tax post-independence — but warns a currency union with the remainder of the uK is unlikely to work.

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Single person on average wage total tax take

Average wage in £ Married couple, 2 kids total tax take

Single, earning 167% of average total tax take

ToTAl TAx wedge TAken froM SAlAry including eMployerS’ SociAl SecuriTy conTribuTionS

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83

The Courier & AdverTiser Tuesday, March 18, 2014 RefeRendum2014 7

Currency: so whichside’s telling truth?

Currency unionwould makeperfect sense

betteRtogetheR

Which currency an independent Scotland would use has sparked much debate.

Currency has becomeperhaps the biggest single issueof the referendum debate and oneemblematic of it as a whole.

The scottish Government maintainsthat it wants a formal sterling currencyunion with the rest of the uK post-independence, even though such an optionhas been ruled out by the conservatives,Labour and Liberal Democrats.

First Minister alex salmond has saidthis position is nothing but a bluff and thatin the event of a yes vote the WestminsterGovernment will be far more willing toagree to such a currency union.

Whether you believe Mr salmond hascalled Westminster’s cards correctly orthink he has gone all in with nothing in hishand is probably one of the biggest factorsin deciding how you will vote.

It used to be so simple for supporters ofscottish independence.

Before the economic crash of 2008, thesnP envisaged scotland breaking awayfrom the rest of the united Kingdom,joining the european union and adoptingthe euro as currency.

Then disaster struck and the eurozonecrisis forced a re-think.

even though Firs t Minis te ralex salmond once described sterlingas a “millstone around scotland’sneck”, by the time the White Paper waspublished last year keeping sterling ina shared currency zone with the rest ofthe uK was the scottish Government’sambition.

The scottish Government appointeda Fiscal commission to look at possibleoptions for currency post-independenceand they came up with four options:continued use of sterling, pegged andflexible; creating an entirely new scottishcurrency; or joining the euro.

Their conclusion was that retaining thepound as part of a formal monetary unionwith the rest of the uK was best.

however, chancellor of the exchequer

George Osborne ruled out any suchagreement last month after the Treasuryadvised against such a union, claiming itwould not be in the best interests of the restof the uK.

Deputy First Minister nicola sturgeonresponded by threatening that scotlandcould, in those circumstances, refuseto accept its share of uK debt if denieda currency union and continue usingthe pound anyway. This in turn led towarnings that scotland would have topay far higher rates of interest on anyborrowings as it would not have a centralbank underpinning the currency, and may

As pArt of the UK we benefitfrom the strength, security andstability of the UK pound.

this is good for jobs as it keepsthe cost of mortgages and creditcard bills down, and it’s vital forthe wages we are paid and thebenefits and pensions we receive.the only thing putting that at riskis Alex salmond’s obsession withseparation.

A currency union betweena separate scotland and thecontinuing UK is not going tohappen. In any event it wouldn’tbe good for scotland and itwouldn’t be good for people livingelsewhere in the UK.

Business leaders are against it,and poll after poll shows peoplein England, Wales and NorthernIreland wouldn’t support it.

Instead of telling everybodyelse they are wrong and only he isright, what the people of scotlandneed from Alex salmond is hisplan B on currency.

Would scotland rush to adoptthe euro, as the Governor of theBank of England has suggested,or would we set up our ownunproven separate currency?

the idea that people in

scotland can be expected to goto the polls blind on this mostfundamental issue is simply notcredible.

Alex salmond and otherNationalists should stop theirreckless threats about not takingon a fair share of debt becausethey can’t get a deal on thepound.

We all know from our own

lives what happens to your creditrating if you don’t pay your bills.Defaulting on our debt wouldpush up costs for mortgages,credit card bills and car loans.

Why take such a huge riskand force additional costs ontofamilies in scotland? Why turnour backs on the strength,stability and security of theUnited Kingdom?

thE poUND might take up lots ofnewspaper coverage — but that’sbecause the No campaign hasnothing positive to offer people,and simply relies on arguing we’reuniquely incapable of running asuccessful independent countryand working with our neighbours.

But George osborne’s currencyannouncement — his infamous‘sermon on the pound’ — was acampaign tactic that the sundayherald has revealed the Nocampaign had planned six monthsago. so we know Mr osborne isplaying politics and not applyingeconomics. And more and morepeople are recognising that.

the truth is that a currency unionmakes common sense.

remember, scotland can use theUK pound regardless of what Mrosborne says — because it’s a fullytradeable currency. But that’s notwhat’s proposed, since the adviceof the expert Fiscal Commission(including two Nobel prize winners)is that there would be clearbenefits to both scotland andrUK in having a formal currencyagreement.

they are of the firm belief thatsuch a union brings stability forpeople and businesses in scotlandand rUK and promotes cross-bordertrade. And it’s not just Yes that issaying it. here are the views fromtwo experts.

professor Anton Mustcatell i,economist, University of Glasgow,

says: “Maintaining a sterlingcurrency union would be

advantageous to bothc o u n t r i e s a f t e rindependence.”

pr o f e s s o r D a v i dsimpson (formerly UN,

World Bank and standardLife): “A currency unionb a s e d o n s t e r l i n g

remains the most likelyoutcome following independencebecause it is in the best interestsof not just scotland but of Englandas well.”

Before the re ferendum Nopoliticians will say anything to stopindependence, after Yes they’lldo what’s best for people andbusinesses in the rest of the UK —and that means sharing the pound.

one of the biggest questions is not whether peoplewould be better off under independence — but whetherthey would have the pound in their pocket at all . . .

YeS

even see the remainder of the uK veto anyattempt by scotland to join the eu.

One of the scottish Government’s keypoints is that scotland cannot reasonablybe expected to take on a share of debtwithout receiving an equivalent share ofany assets, which they consider sterlingto be.

But the Treasury disagrees.and if scotland does not take on debt,

what assets would it then actually beentitled to? Given that much of the WhitePaper’s proposals depend on the divisionor sharing of assets, just whose bluff is itthat has been called?

by Stefan Morkis

says: “Maintaining a sterlingcurrency union would be

advantageous to both

simpson (formerly UN,World Bank and standardLife): “A currency unionb a s e d o n s t e r l i n g

remains the most likelyoutcome following independence

Pound’sstrength asource ofstability

Drilling for facts

Norway’soil wealthis a keyindicator

The Courier & AdverTiser Tuesday, March 18, 2014RefeRendum2014

YeS

8

The opening of theScottish parliament in1999 was a key date on theroad to the independencereferendum.

And, ironically given theit’s Scotland’s oil campaignin the 1970s which helpedrevitalise the Snp, it wasalso the year that north Seaoil production peaked.

S ince then, when1.8 billion barrels of oilequivalent were extracted,output has been falling bya rate of 5-10% each year— or it did until 2011 whenoutput fell by 17.9%.

But although Yes Scotlandmaintains an independentScotland would still bewealthier than it is as partof the UK without tax fromoil revenues, the potentialrevenues that remaincould be cr i t ica l toset t l ing the vote onindependence.

in 2011-2012, taxrevenues f rom nor thSea oil and gas were£7.6 bil l ion and theindustry is estimated tohave contributed around£22 billion to Scotland’sgDp in 2012.

Although oil may be afinite resource, the Snpis in no doubt that there isenough of the black stuffleft to make Scotland one ofthe wealthiest countries onearth.

According to the Scottishgovernment’s White paper,24 billion barrels of oil andgas remain under the northSea — worth an estimated£1.5 trillion.

The Wh i t e pape ralso points out thatinvestment in north Seaoil has hit a record levelof £13.5 billion whileanother £100 bil l ionof investment is planned.

The Wh i t e pape r

considers two possiblescenarios for the future ofnorth Sea gas and oil —both of them positive.

if production and pricesremain unchanged theyclaim Scotland wouldreceive tax revenues of £6.8billion in 2016/17, whileeven if prices fall they predictthat increased productionwill see tax revenues rise to£7.9 billion.

But this does make a fewassumptions, not least onthe notoriously volatile priceof oil.

given the impossibilityof predicting oil prices andsubsequent tax revenues,the White paper says anSnp government wouldcreate a Scottish energyfund. This would userevenues from oil and gas toprovide investment for futuregenerations and to “top up”revenues when tax receipts

AccorDing To David cameronour north Sea industry is the“jewel in the crown” of the UKeconomy. Andas theUKBusinessSecretary said last year whenlaunching a report that confirmedwe’d continue to supply oil andgas until well after 2055: “Thereis a very positive future for theindustry. oil and gas UK expectproduction to expand.”

We know that oil and gasare finite resources. That’s whyalmost every country or provinceblessed with them has built up awealth fund. And that’s what anindependentScottishgovernmentwould do.

Yet successiveUKgovernmentshave failed to put a single pennyinto such a rainy day fund.

With such a woeful track

record to defend, instead the nocampaign suggestswe’renotup tothe taskof copingwith year to yearvariations in oil and gas revenues.

of course oil and gas revenuesgo up and down but so do otherrevenue streams — it is perfectlynormal to manage budgets: it’swhat Treasury Departments arepaid to do. Looking over the lastdecade norway has always relied

on oil and gas for a bigger shareof its total revenue than Scotland.has that caused them problems?

in fact, norway is among therichest countries in the world; ittops theUnhumanDevelopmentindex on broader measures ofprosperity; and has the largestwealth fund on the planet valuedat £500 billion. That’s £100,000per person.

fell below a certain level.however, the Yes campaignwas dealt a serious blow thismonth when the instituteof Fiscal Studies said oilrevenues are likely to be farless than even the Whitepaper’s most pessimisticpredictions.

While the Snp forecastsrevenues of between£6.8 billion and £7.9bnin 2016-17, the iFS hassaid revenues, basedon the office for Budgetresponsibility ’s Marchforecasts, will be just£3.3bn.

M e a n w h i l e , t h eDepartment of energy andclimate change, in a directcontradiction of the Whitepaper, predicts a decline inoutput from the north Seaand that fiscal revenues willfall correspondingly.

Although oil and gasUK, the trade body for the

oil industry, is predictingoutput will returned totwo million barrels ofoil equivalent a day by2017, it has said it willbe six years before this levelis reached again.

of course, this dependson companies being able tosuccessfully bring new wellsonline to offset decliningoutput from older ones.The difficulty for oil firmsis that these reserves aremuch harder — and moreexpensive — to reach.

in fact, the cost ofextracting one barrel of oil orgas from the north Sea hasalready doubled since 2007and one oil company — Bp— has already warned theircosts may rise if Scotlandvotes Yes, which couldaffect future investment.The Snp has dismissedthese concerns.

And although there

is no doubt that oil willbe a valuable resourceshould Scotland vote forindependence, dividingthe natura l resourcepool between Scotlandand the rest of the UKmay not necessarily bestraightforward.

industry expert professorAlex Kemp has suggestedthe median line north ofBerwick.

This would give Scotlanda 95% share of oil and58% of gas resources, butuntil the split is agreedit is impossible to gaugehow much Scotland wouldbenefit from oil and gas.

betteRtogetheR

‘it’s Scotland’s oil’ was the Snp’s battle cry followingthe discovery of north Sea black gold — and it’s stillcentral to the 2014 referendum, says Stefan MorkisRelying on

oil is a high-risk strategy

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norTh SeA oil has beengreat for Scotland butdespite what Alex Salmondwould have you believe,we know oil can’t pay foreverything.

nobody knows exactlyhow much is left but weknow it is running out.While independence wouldbe forever, oil is not.

We need to be honestabout the role that oil andgas can play in Scotlandif we vote to go it alone.The challenge for us is tomake sure that we makethe most of this precious,but declining resource. Weknow that it can’t pay foreverything forever.

Snp claims that oil willbe able to pay for everynew pol icy that theypromise simply don’t stackup. every penny of moneythat we get from oil andgas is already being spentin Scotland on schools,hospitals and pensions.

There is no massivebounty of oil money readyto be spent if we vote forindependence.

The only way that wecould have a norwegian-style oil fund would be tocut services, raise taxes orborrow more.

if we were borrowingcash to put money in anoil fund it would be likegoing to a payday loancompany to invest moneyin an iSA.

The nationalists alsodon’t like to talk aboutthe fact that, even whenyou include oil, their ownfigures show that Scotlandhas spent more than it hasbrought in in 20 of the last21 years.

The difference betweenthe money brought in to thegovernment when oil priceswere high and the sumbrought in when oil priceswere low is equivalent tothe entire Scottish nhSbudget.

if that sounds like amassive risk to be taking,it is because it is. As partof the bigger UK economy,we are protected fromthese price fluctuations.Are we really willing tostake the nhS budget onAlex Salmond’s gamble?Why turn our backs onthe strength, stability andsecurity of the UnitedKingdom?

oil industry, is predicting

be six years before this level

of course, this depends

UK oil & gas production1

97

01

97

11

97

21

97

31

97

41

97

51

97

61

97

71

97

81

97

91

98

01

98

11

98

21

98

31

98

41

98

51

98

61

98

71

98

81

98

91

99

01

99

11

99

21

99

31

99

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99

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99

81

99

92

00

02

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00

52

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62

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00

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01

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01

12

01

22

01

3

250

Gas Oil & NGL200

150

100

50

Oil & NGL output is expressed in millions of tonnes; gasoutput in billions of cubic feet. Source: DECC.

Hoping to reap vastrenewables benefits

There’s noguaranteewe’d retainsubsidies

The Courier & AdverTiser Tuesday, March 18, 2014 RefeRendum2014

betteRtogetheR

9

Unravelling the elements of UK energy supply and demand would be a big headache.

Whether Scotlandbecomes independentor not, it will be energyr i ch — or a t l eas t

potentially so.aside from the oil and gas still to

be extracted from under the northSea, Scotland also has vast renewableenergy resources.

Scotland is a net expor ter ofelectricity and renewable energy isgrowing at a significant rate. BetweenJanuary 2010 and april 2013 theindustry announced £13.1 billion ofinvestment, which will create morethan 9,000 jobs.

the Scottish Government has alsoannounced plans to set up a new energy

department — co-headquartered inaberdeen and Glasgow to capitaliseon oil, gas and renewable energy — inan independent Scotland.

Between 2011 and 2012, 13.6% ofall the UK’s electricity was generatedin Scotland and more than a quarter ofthis was exported.

But despite these riches, Scotland’sFuture — the Scottish Government’sWhite Paper on independence —wants to maintain a shared UK energymarket.

this would mean that Scotlandwould continue to share in the subsidiescrucial to developing the renewableenergy sector.

While Scotland only accounts for

9% of the UK’s energy sales, it receives37% of funding through the UKrenewables obligation system, whichpays electricity companies for the greenenergy they produce.

Without these subsisidies and otherlevies attached to power bills fromacross the UK, developing renewableenergy resources becomes far moreexpensive and could leave the SnP’shopes of generating all electricity fromrenewable sources by 2020 hanging bya thread.

and although the rest of UK mayimport excess electricity generatedin Scotland, it could shop around forcheaper power from Ireland or France.

It has been estimated that the averageannual electricity bill in Scotlandcould rise by as much as £300 a yearas a result. that would be difficult toswallow but english politicians wouldstruggle to justify to voters down southwhy they are paying more for theirelectricity to keep bills in Scotlanddown.

there are also fears that some energycompanies could withdraw from whatwould be a much smaller market,limiting choice for consumers to aneven greater degree and making themmore vulnerable to price rises.

But there are also signif icantadvantages for the UK if it decides toretain a single energy market.

Scotland accounts for nearly half(42%) of all installed UK wind capacity.Without Scotland it is unlikely the UKwould meet its eU mandated energytargets, although these might well berenegotiated in the wake of Scottishindependence.

First Minister alex Salmond has,additionally, claimed that electricitygenerated in Scotland is needed to keepthe lights on in england and Wales.

that may be something of anexaggeration, but there is no doubtthat unpicking the UK’s energy marketwould not be straightforward.

If you want to understandhow much potential Scotlandhas as a world leader inrenewable energy, you needonly open your window!No-one needs to tell us thatwind and rain are not thingsthat are in short supply.

However, it is all very welland good to have the rawmaterials; in order to capitalise

on this position of strength youneed to invest in infrastructureand in new technology. This iswhere the Nationalist case, asin so many areas, completelyfalls apart.

They have asserted thatwe can leave the uK butthat we would still be part ofthe uK energy market. Theycompletely ignore that the

rest of the uK would choosewho it buys any excessenergy from — it could go tothe continent or it could go toIreland. Alex Salmond simplydemanding that they buy itfrom Scotland will not mattera jot if we left the uK. But thereal problem comes from oneof the biggest whoppers thatwe hear regularly from the

SNP. They claim that, afterindependence, hard-pressedbill payers in the rest of theuK will automatically agree tocontinue paying a subsidy thatwould pay for investment inrenewables in Scotland.

It is utter nonsense.Imagine if a politician

said that we all had to pay asubsidy on our energy bills to

support thefrench renewablesindustry. They would belaughed out of town — andrightly so.

Like so much of the casefor the uK, there is sense inpooling and sharing resources.It makes sense for bill payersin all of the uK to pay for anindustry that benefits thewhole of the uK. We may

not like how much we pay inenergy bills right now — butwithout the whole of the uKpaying towards the Scottishrenewables industry wewould either have to abandonrenewables or massivelyincrease bills to pay for it.

Why turn our backs on thestrength, security and stabilityof the uK?

Scotland’s economy depends heavily on oil but that is notour only energy source. What would independence meanfor the renewables revolution? Stefan Morkis reports . . .

Our greenenergy is keyto the wholeequationScoTLANd IS blessed withone of the most importantresources in the 21st century— energy. With oil and gasand renewables, we are ina for tunate place. The Nocampaign wants you to believethis is a burden, whereas it is abig advantage.

The rest of the uK needsScotland’s green energy tomeet its target of 30% ofelectricity from renewables by2020. The uK is struggling tomeet legally-binding Eu targetsof 15% of all energy fromrenewables by 2020.

More fundamentally, the restof the uK needs Scotland’senergy to remove the risk thatthe lights will go off.

Electricity regulator ofgemhas forecast that the uK’sspare electricity generationcapacity could fall to just 2%in 2015, increasing the risk ofblackouts.

In contrast, Scotland’s extracapacity over demand in 2015-16 has been predicted to riseto around 25% by the ScottishGovernment.

Some suggest that the restof the uK could look elsewherefor cheaper energy, but withour European ne ighboursfacing similar capacity issues,the uK will continue to rely onpower from an independentScotland.

T h e f u t u r ef o r o f f s h o r erenewables is verypositive. With thefu l l powers o findependencewe can ensureScot land fee lsthe full benefit —for present and futuregenerations. offshorer e n e w a b l e s c a n d e l i v e rthe re- indust r ia l isat ion ofScotland, with thousands ofnew skilled manufacturing jobsfor our young people with newopportunities for the east coastin particular.

YeS

Gross electricity consumptionand % renewables output

Gross consumptionRenewables output

GW

h

20.2%

2007

22.2%

2008

27.6%

2009

24.2%

2010

36.2%

2011

40.3%

2012

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

T h e f u t u r ef o r o f f s h o r erenewables is verypositive. With the

the full benefit —for present and futuregenerations. offshore

The Courier & AdverTiser Tuesday, March 18, 2014RefeRendum201410

Business concerns

Yes camp’stake onbusinessconcerns

YeS

Some businesses are apprehensive about the potential effects of independence.

While it will be voterswho ultimately decideScotland’s constitutionalfuture, the impact onb u s i n e s s e s — a n dthe r e f o r e t h e w ide reconomy and employment— will be a key decidingfactor.

there have been nowidespread surveys ofbusiness sentiment andso many factors come intoplay that it is impossiblefor anyone to state clearlywha t the impac t o findependence might be.

t h e W h i t e Pa p e rclaims that a post-2016Sco t t i sh Gove rnmen tw o u l d s u p p o r t t h ere- industr ia l isat ion ofScotland by increasingmanufacturing activitya n d b o o s t i n g h i g h -value jobs, promotinginnovation and increasinginvestment.

i t c l a i m s f u t u r egovernments would beable to help these sectorsgrow by of fe r ing taxincentives.

however, the WhitePaper ’s biggest promisei s t o i n t r o d u c e atimetable that will seecorporation tax drop tothree percentage pointsbelow the rate set bythe rest of the UK —some th i n g t h e SNPsay could lead to thec r e a t i o n o f 27 ,000jobs by attracting newinvestment.

h o w e v e r, c r i t i c sincluding former PrimeMinister Gordon Brownclaim this could lead to a“race to the bottom” withcompanies demandingSco t l a nd — o r t h erest of the UK — cutthe minimum wage tomake investment moreattractive.

And, of course, any cutin tax means less revenuefor the government tospend on public services.

Supe rmarke t s havebeen the most voca labout the e f fec t s o fi n d e p e n d e n c e , w i t hseveral warning it couldlead to price rises, whilethe chief executive of BPBob Dudley warned ofthe “big uncertainties”caused by po t en t i a lindependence.

Some business groupssuch as CBi Scotland haveasked what currency willbe used if the UK does notagree to a formal sterlingzone and the eU does

toDAy No campaigners, andeven a few company executives,claim independence will bebad for business. But they saidthe exact same thing aboutdevolution. they were wrong thenand they are wrong now.

A yes vote means economicpolicies designed for Scotland, aNo vote means more of the samepolicies designed for london

and the South east. We knowScotland is one of the wealthiestcounties in the world, so whywouldn’t businesses want tocontinue to trade here and bebased here? And, contrary to themedia reporting, Standardlife arenow writing to customers saying:“Standard life currently has noplans to relocate or transfer partsof our operations out of Scotland”.

A yes vote will createthousands of jobs in Scotland.instead of paying for civil serviceand defence jobs to be locateddown south, we’ll have thosejobs here. Companies currentlyheadquartered only in englandwill set up headquarters inScotland bringing high-qualityjobs. We can use the full powersof independence to support

growth in vital sectors while thecurrent government proposesan Air Passenger Duty tax cut toboost tourism, and the possibilityof lower national insurancecontributions to help smallbusiness take on extra staff.

We can put in place policies tosupport our creative industries andboost our burgeoning food anddrink industry overseas.

not guarantee Scotlandautomatic entr y whileJohn Cridland, director-general of the nationalCBi, has come out infavour of remaining partof the UK.

Some firms, such as theorion Group, have evensaid they are consideringleaving Scotland due tothe continued uncertaintyove r i t s f u t u r e andcurrency.

Standard life, the UK’slargest provider of definedcontr ibut ion pensionsand self-invested pensionplans, has said i t isprepar ing cont ingencyplans to move parts of its

business out of Scotlandi f deemed necessar yshould Scotland vote forindependence.

yet pro-independencecampaigners can takesolace from the fact thatBank of england governorMark Carney has said theinstitution would find away to make a currencyunion work i f agreedby the Scottish and UKgovernments fol lowingseparation.

Whether that happensafter Chancellor Georgeosborne ruled out a formalcurrency union remains tobe seen.

But there is also plenty

o f s u p p o r t f o rindependence within thebusiness community.

P r o - i n d e p e n d e n c egroup Business Scotlandhas more than 2,000members and supporterspoint out that separatecurrencies would impacton english and Welshbusinesses as well asScottish ones, although toa far lesser degree.

And a poll of UK-widecompanies by the BritishChambers of Commercecarried out in August lastyear found that 90% saythe referendum has hadno substantive impact ontheir business so far.

betteRtogetheR

the White Paper promises an enterprise-friendlyScotland that will create thousands of jobs. But dobusinesses agree independence is the way forward?No camp’s

concern forScots jobs

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the iNterveNtioNS inrecent weeks from some ofScotland’s largest employersmakeclear that independencewould cost jobs. A recentsurvey of businesses inScotland found that over onethird would consider quittingthe country if we separate.

Courier readers knowbetterthan most the risk to jobsfrom independence, followingthe comments by rosythdockyardownerBabcock.thetrade unions and employersat Babcock voiced theirreal concerns about the riskleaving the UK would pose tojobs at rosyth.

Alliance trust, a companybased in Dundee since thelate 1800s and employinghundreds of people, said thatit is making plans to movework to england if Scotlandleaves the UK. these are bigrisks that we simply don’thave to take.

Being part of the largeUK single market is goodfor Scottish businesses.today they have unrestrictedaccess to a market of63 million, rather than justfive million. Where is thesense in putting up barriersbetween businesses and theircustomers elsewhere in theUK?

the number of businessesraising serious concernsabout the risks of separationshows what a leap in the darkit would be. From Standardlife to rBS, Shell to lloyds,Morrisons to BP, these arefirms employing thousandsof Scots. rather than sayingthey are all wrong and only heis right, Alex Salmond shouldprovide credible answers tothe important questions.

on the two biggest issuesfor employers, currencyand eU membership, theNationalists are all over theplace. Businesses don’t knowwhat currency they will betrading in if we leave the UKand don’t know whether wewould be a member of theeU, or what the terms ofmembership would be if wedid get in.

today we have the bestof both worlds. our strongScottish Parliament takes keydecisions about business,including on education, skillsand training, and we benefitfrom being part of the largerUK economy. there is nosense in putting this at risk.Why turn our backs on thestrength, security and stabilityof the United Kingdom?

Some businesses are apprehensive about the potential effects of independence.

business out of Scotland o f s u p p o r t f o r

Export by sector and destination

Scottish exports

Total £98.1b(would make Scotland34th largest exporter)

2012 (£b)

2012 (£b)

International

International

To the rest of the UK

To the rest ofthe UK

1 5 10 15

Oil & gas

Whisky

Chemicals

Other manufacturing

Finance & insurance

Legal, accounting

Other services

Other

Goods

Goods

Services

Services

Oil & gas

Oil & gas

Export by sector and destination

Services

Oil & gas

10.7

25.322.3

13.8

8.717.3

The Courier & AdverTiser Tuesday, March 18, 2014 RefeRendum2014 11

European mattersmust be considered

Why turnour backson the UK’sshelter?

betteRtogetheR

The debate may be aboutScotland leaving the UnitedKingdom but it is our relationshipwith europe that may influence the

final outcome.theSNPScottishGovernment’sposition

is simple: Scotland would leave the UK andnegotiate entry into the european Union inthe 18 months between the September 18vote and full independence.

according to their argument, Scotlandjoining the eU as an independent statewould ensure continued access to the singlemarket vital for trade, retain the UK’srebate on net transfers to the eU,worth nearly £300 million annually,and also retain UK opt-outs from theeuro and the Schengen travel area.

these assertions remain highly disputedbut the SNP also hopes that anti-eU feelingin england may convince Scotland to voteYes. the Conservatives have promised areferendum on eU membership shouldthey win an outright majority after the nextGeneral election.

Unfortunately for theYes camp, europeand the euro has become theachilles’heelof the independencecampaign—issues thathave exposed time and again weaknessesin theYes camp’s plans for an independentScotland.

that First Minister alex Salmonddescribed Sterling as a sinking

currency and suggested ScotlandcouldjointheeurobeforechanginghismindinfavourofaSterlingzone

after theeurozonecrisis isunderstandable. Itwould be a foolhardy politician who refusedto change their mind at any cost.

but other assertions of europe may provemost damaging.

despite claiming that entry to the eUwould be a formality, senior figures suchas herman van Rumpoy, president of theeuropean Council, have warned that if partof a member country becomes independentthen eU treaties would no longer apply.

accession to the eU under thoseconditions could take up to seven years,while Scotland would then have to agree toother conditions such as joining the euro.

to make matters worse, Mr Salmondclaimed in March 2012 to have receivedlegal advice from Scottish Governmentlaw officers to back this up. It later emergedthat advice was not sought until nearly sixmonths later.

and one of the Scottish Government’sflagship policies would become illegalshould Scotland join the eU as anindependent state. Currently, Scottishstudents, and those from eU countries,do not have to pay for tuition at Scotland’suniversities and, according to Mr Salmond“rocks would melt in the sun” before hisgovernment introduces fees for Scots.

however, to help Scotland’s universitieskeep up with their fee-charging englishcounterparts, students from elsewhere inthe UK do have to pay fees because undereU law it is possible to discriminate againstpeoplefromdifferentpartsofamemberstatebut not those from other states.

Meanwhile, there are concerns thatcountries such as Spain, which are keento stifle separatist movements in their owncountries, may try to stop Scotland joiningthe eU automatically.

but the Yes camp is confident thatScotlandwouldbe toovaluableamemberofthe eU for its entry to be blocked.

they claim the Common FisheriesPolicy could not work without Scotland’sparticipation while some experts claim thatScotland would not be compelled to join theeuro or the Schengen travel area.

Today we have a seat at the toptable in the european Union as partof the UK. The reality is that when itcomes tohaving influenceandgettingthings done in europe, it’s the bigthree countries — the UK, Germanyand France — who matter most.

The nationalists are all over theplace on europe. alex Salmond toldus that he had legal advice to provethat a separate Scotland would

automatically be a member of theeuropean Union. It turns out thatthe First Minister wasn’t telling thetruth. No legal advice ever existed.what is worse, alex Salmond spentthousands of pounds of taxpayermoneygoing to court tohide that fact.

The Prime Minister of Spain,the President of the europeanCommission and the President of theeuropean Council have all said that

there would be big difficulties witha separate Scotland’s application tojoin the eU. alex Salmond dismissesthem all because they don’t agreewith him.

as part of the UK we benefit froma number of key opt-outs that directlybenefit the people of Scotland. whilstevery new eU member has to sign upto join the euro, the UK has a specialdeal which means we can keep

using the pound as our currency. TheGovernor of the Bank of england,Mark Carney, a neutral observer inthis debate, recently said that if wehave to apply as a new member ofthe eU then we would have to signup to the euro.

we also have an opt-out fromthe common european immigrationsystem, meaning decisions aboutimmigration, asylum and border

controls are taken here in the UKrather than in Brussels. as a newmember state of the eU, a separateScotland would in all likelihood haveto signup to thecommon immigrationscheme. Today as part of the UK wealso benefit from the rebate, worth£300million a year toScotland.whywould we want to put that at risk?why turn our backs on the strength,security and stability of the UK?

Independence will mean Scotland leaving the UK butits relationship with its european neighbours will alsodetermine how people vote, says Stefan Morkis

would ensure continued access to the singlemarket vital for trade, retain the UK’s

and also retain UK opt-outs from the

that First Minister alex Salmonddescribed Sterling as a sinking

currency and suggested Scotland

hismindinfavourofaSterlingzone

Europe hasalways foundthe solutiondeSPITe deCadeS of ‘co ldwar ’, in 1990 communist eastGermany was reunited with westGermany and joined the eU. In theunprecedented circumstances ofGerman reunification there was noobvious solution in the eC treaties— but one was found, and eastGermany was absorbed into thecommunity in just months.

How much easier will it be forScotland, a country which has beenpart of the eU for 40 years andalready meets all the requirementsfor membership?

The independence timetablemeans there will be 18 months—while still part of the UK — tonegotiate Scotland’s continuedmember sh ip . So we ’ l l benegotiating from within, and eventhe international legal exper tcommissioned by westminster saidthis was “realistic”. on the otherhand, Scotland’s membership ishugely important to other memberstates.

Scotland has 25% of europe’soff-shore wind and tidal resourceand also 10% of europe’s waveresource. we have the largest oilreserves and are the eU’s second-largest gas producer. we havesome of the eU’s most importantfishing areas. over 120,000 eUcitizens are exercising the right towork and study here. why wouldany member state want Scotlandoutside the single market?

even david Cameron has statedthat he would “absolutely” supportScotland’s membership of theeU after yes — which explainswhy Spain’s foreign ministerhas accepted this won’t cause anissue.

as Professor Charlie Jeffery ofedinburgh University has said:“The conclusion of almost allindependent expert analysis is thatScottish eU membership would beuninterrupted.”

of course, negotiations wil lbe needed. But despite the Nocampaign’s myths, eU law meanswe can’t be forced to join the euro.one of the necessary steps to adoptthe euro is voluntary — the decisionwill always be ours to take.

YeS

1 Luxembourg2 Norway

3 Switzerland4 United States

5 Australia6 Austria7 Ireland

8 Netherlands9 Sweden

10 Denmark11 Canada

12 Germany13 Belgium

14 SCOTLAND15 Finland16 Iceland17 France

18 UK19 Japan

20 Italy

2012 GDP per head ($)

Countries ranked byGDP per head (total

economic output dividedby mid-year population)

$89,417$66,135$53,641$51,689$44,407$44,141$43,803$43,348$42,974$42,787$42,114$41,923$40,838$39,642$39,160$39,097$36,933$35,671$35,482$34,143

bettertogether

Who would defendScotland’s realm?

The Courier & AdverTiser Tuesday, March 18, 2014referendum2014

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Defence would be a key issue for a post-independence Scotland.

Quoting the 14thamendment, formeruS President RonaldReagan once said that agovernment’s first duty isto protect its citizens.

Andwhilewe live inaworldwhere the threat of invasionbarely registers, Scotland’sdefence remains a key issuein the referendum.

As with the remainder ofthe uK, terrorism is possiblythe biggest physical threatto Scotland, while cyberterrorism remainsapotent riskthat could bring governmentsand businesses to a halt.

Meanwhile, there is stillthe likelihood of the RussianAir Force’s probing flights nearScotland’s nautical 200-mileborder continuing.

And if Scotland’s mostimportant assets are the oiland gas reserves in the northSea then the country musthave the military capabilityto prevent attacks there andensure there is no disruptionto the oil supply.

in the White Paper onindependence, theSnPspellsout what it would do in theevent of independence.

the party’s long-heldaspiration to rid Scotland ofnuclear weapons would be apriority. nuclear subs wouldbe removed from Faslane,which would become hQ ofthe Scottish defence force.

however, compromiseshave been made along theway. the SnP dropped itslong-standing opposition tonAto, although it says it willjoin as anuclear-freemember.

the White Paper saysnuclear-armed vessels fromother nAto countries wouldbeallowed todock inScotlandwithout confirmingwhether ornot they are carrying nuclearwarheads.

the SnP envisages avastly different conventionalmilitary defence force thanthe one the uK currentlyprovides — and one thatwill, crucially, cost thetaxpayer much less.

According to themost recent figuresfrom 2007-08,Scottish taxpayersc o n t r i b u t e d a r o u n d£3.36 billion to the defencebudget, £1.46 billion morethan was actually spenthere. however, given thatthe uK was involved inoverseas conflicts in iraq andAfghanistan, such high levelsof spending are not a surprise.

operating under theassumption that Scotlandwould inherit a share ofcurrent military assets basedon population, then the WhitePaper estimates the totalvalue of this would be in theregion of £7.8 billion.

te n y e a r s a f t e rindependence, the SnPpredict total personnel in theScottish armed forces wouldbe 15,000 regulars plus3,000 reservists.

But things may not be asstraightforward as they’dwish. Despite the small sizeof the new Scottish armedforces, theWhitePaper says itis envisaged that major armyfacilities will continue to be

We oWe our defence personnelan immense debt of gratitude.We also owe them a governmentthat they can have confidencein and that will make the rightdecisions by them. Westminsterdoesn’t provide that.

“our Armed Forces —admired across the world— have been overstretched,deployed too often withoutappropriate planning, with

the wrong equipment, in thewrong numbers and withouta clear strategy”. these areDavid Cameron’s words — yethe’s making 22,000 trainedpersonnel redundant for costreasons, while investing billionsin new nuclear weapons.

uK Defence Minister AndrewMurrison has recently admittedthere is nothing to stop the uKbuilding ships in an independent

Scotland. And with the closure ofPortsmouth, the uK would havenowhere to build them exceptthe Clyde. it is on Westminster’swatch that thousands ofshipyard jobs have been lost.

With Yes we’ll have defenceforces designed for Scotland. itis absurd that Scotland — witha coastline longer than india’s— doesn’t have a single majorsurface ship stationed here,

or maritime patrol aircraft.infrastructure would likelyinclude Leuchars serving botharmy and air force.

Many serving personnel willwant to transfer to a Scottishdefence force and we can recruitfrom the 22,000 the uK hasmade redundant. A career inthe forces will be attractive, withno compulsory redundancies astarting point.

military defence force thanthe one the uK currentlyprovides — and one thatwill, crucially, cost the

c o n t r i b u t e d a r o u n d£3.36 billion to the defencebudget, £1.46 billion more

needed at Kinloss, Leuchars,glencorse, Fort george,Dreghorn and Redford.

Yet with plans for only4,700 permanent personnelfive years after independence,it seems unlikely any futureindependent governmentwouldbeable to justify payingto keep so many army bases.

Although assets like basesare likely to be handed overto an independent Scotland,equipmentdeemednecessaryfor the protection of the rest ofthe uK may not. And it hasnot been agreed whether anymembers of uK forces wouldbe inherited.

the White Paper alsosuggests Scotland wouldform part of collective defencearrangement with the restof the uK and that jointprocurement of, for example,new warships would benefitboth Scotland and the rest ofthe uK.

this is to quieten fearsthat shipbuilding on theClyde would not survive asarticle 346 of the treaty ofthe european union allowscountries not to put contractsout to europe-wide tenderif national security is stake.however, Westminster ’sScottish Affairs Committee

was told by uK MinisterAndrewMurrison that itwouldstill be possible to build shipson the Clyde and circumventcompetition law if itwas in the“residual defence” interests ofthe uK to do so.

the White Paper alsosuggests Scotland will have torely on support from the uKfor intelligence gathering.

Although it says Scotlandwould create its own securityand intelligence agency, itadds that it will work closelywith those services belongingto the rest of the uK,particularly regarding cybercrime.

For centuries, Scots have played a full role in theBritish Armed Forces. But how would an independentScotland choose to defend itself? By Stefan Morkis.

We’re saferand strongertogether

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the uK Armed Forces arethe very best in the world.For centuries, men andwomen from Scotland havestood shoulder to shoulderwith people from england,Wales and northern irelandto keep us safe at homeand to tackle threats to ourfreedom abroad.

our intelligence serviceswork seamlessly across theuK to tackle threats fromextremism and terrorism.unfor tunate ly, recentyears have shown us thatScotland is not immuneto these threats. Whenthe attack took place atglasgow Airport, the entireuK worked to bring thoseresponsible to justice.

tens of thousands of jobsrely on the contracts thatcome from the uK armedforces. From the staff whowork at the military bases,the high-tech companiesthat are making thesoftware and hardwarethat our Forces use and theshipyards that build theships for the Royal navy,being part of the uK is goodfor Scottish jobs.

the SnP say that wecan leave the uK, butstill keep all the benefits.they say that we wouldset up a separate ScottishDefence Force and Scottishintelligence Services andthat everything would,somehow, be better thanwhat we have now. it is afantasy.

how can we rip upcenturies of history, throwaway decades of experienceand expertise, attempt torecreate everything thatwe already have on a farsmaller budget and farsmaller scale and expectthings to be better? it justisn’t credible.

We should take pridein the global reach of ourarmed forces.

Royal navy boats are inthe Caribbean interceptingdrug traffickers. Similarly,Scottish ships and Scottishtroops provide relief whendisaster strikes around theworld. the SnP say thatunless a ship is patrollingScottish waters then it isnot working for Scotland.it is a ridiculous argument.

the fact is we arestronger and safer togetheras part of the uK. Why turnour back on the strength,security and stability of theuK?

A defencestrategymade inScotland

The ongoing battlefor hearts and minds

The Courier & AdverTiser Tuesday, March 18, 2014 RefeRendum2014

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13

Many voters have rock-solid voting intentions — it’s the others who may well hold sway.

For much of last year thereferendum race appeared tobe stuck in a rut. Every pollingcompany kept on reporting

there had been little or no changesince its previous poll. True, the pollsdid not all agree with each other as toexactly how far No were ahead, but theywere unanimous that their lead wasundiminished.

No longer. once the don’t knowsand undecideds were excluded fromthe calculation, polls conducted in thesecond half of last year on average putthe Yes vote on 39% and No on 61%.Since January the Yes side has beenrecording an average score of 42%, andan average No one of 58%.

In short, there has been a modest butdiscernible three point swing from Noto Yes. It still means Yes are well behind— but at least the winning post is nowwithin sight rather than over the horizon.

Quite why the gap has narrowed is lesseasy to state. Perhaps the independenceWhite Paper, published at the end ofNovember, helped persuade somepeople of the merits of the independencecase. certainly, there is some evidencethat on the issue that above all sortspeople into the Yes and No camps —whether or not they think independencewould be good or bad for Scotland’seconomy — voters are now a little morelikely to be optimistic than they were afew months ago.

What is clear is that the stratagemthat the No side believed would help torestore its lead — the announcement thatan independent Scotland would not beallowed to share the pound with the restof the uK — has so far failed to do so.At 42%, the average Yes vote in thosepolls conducted since the announcementis every bit as high as it was in the pollsconducted immediately beforehand.many a Yes voter is seemingly eitherrelatively relaxed about not usingthe pound or else reckons the uKGovernment is bluffing.

much of the remaining six monthstill polling day will be a battle to winthe hearts and minds of the undecidedvoter. Not that there are that many —most polls find that only around 15% ofScots have no idea how they will vote(and some of them will probably not doso at all), though there are as many asanother 20% who admit that they mightchange their minds.

In short, no more than one inthree votes may still be potentiallyup for grabs. If so, then one sideor the other is going to have tof ight a remarkably effectivecampaign between now and

“Should Scotland be anindependent country?”

the answers provided tothat question on September18 will be the only ones thatmatter. But since the wordingof the referendum questionwas agreed in January lastyear, thousands of Scots havealready given their answers in aseries of polls.

they reveal a consistent leadfor the no camp, but one thathas narrowed.

the first poll after thequestion was agreed wascarried out by pollsters angusReid and showed support forindependence at just 32%,compared to 47% for no with21% saying they did not knowhow they would vote.

In March that year theScottish Government agreed16and17-year-oldscouldvoteand revealed the date the ballotwould take place. a PanelBasesurvey found that support fornohaddroppedby1%to46%but support for Yes rose by fourpoints to 36%.

over the next three months,however, this support fell

away and results of a pollcommissionedbylordashcroftand released in May showed65% of respondents opposedindependence with only 26%in favour of independence.

this was the highest marginof support for the status quorecorded since February 2013.

on august 22 last year aYouGov poll put support for no

at 59% with Yes at just 29%but a results of a PanelBasesurvey on behalf of the SnPand released just six days laterputYesat44%andnoat43%.

the release of Scotland’sFuture, the White Paper onIndependence, in September2013 did not lead to asignificant rise in support forindependence.

Results of a tSn-BMRBsurvey released the followingmonth put support for Yes at25% although support for thestatus quo stood at just 44%.

In February, chancellorGeorge osborne ruled out aformal currency union.

an IcM survey carried outin the aftermath put just sevenpercentage points between the

two camps, with no on 49%and Yes on 42% with don’tknows at 14%.

the most recent poll showsthe gap is widening again. theSurvation poll puts no at 48%with Yes at 39%.

ultimately, it may be downto thoseScotswhohavenot yetmade up their minds to settlethe outcome.

2012-10-10 Odds: 2/7(no) 5/2(yes)Prime Minister david cameron tellsthe conservative Party conferencehe and alex Salmond will conclude areferendum agreement the followingweek.

2013-06-06 1/4(no) 3/1(yes)Scotland’s deputy First Minister setsout 10 examples of uK Governmentspushing through policies despite amajority of Scottish MPs opposing them.

2013-06-07 2/9(no) 10/3(yes)david cameron addresses theScottish conservative Party conferencein Stirling.

2013-06-27 1/6(no) 4/1(yes)uK Government spending review revealsScottish Government will have cut half abillion pounds from its budget before nextGeneral Election.

2013-11-12 1/7 9/2(yes)uK science minister david Willets claimsScottish universities’ research fundingwould be threatened by independence.

2013-11-13 1/8(no) 5/1(yes)academics hit back at perceived“political interference” in dundeeuniversity’s Five Million QuestionsProject. Shona Robison MSP hadquestioned the involvement of pro unionacademic Professor christopher Whately.

2013-11-29 1/6(no) 4/1(yes)three days after the publication ofScotland’s Future, the White Paper onindependence.

2013-11-30 1/7(no) 9/2(yes)St andrews day: Prime Minister hailsScots while Bank of England governorMark carney agrees to meet FirstMinister alex Salmond.

2014-01-01 1/6(no) 4/1(yes)Prime Minister david cameron makes anew Year plea for Scotland to remain inthe uK.

2014-01-07 1/7(no) 9/2(yes)chancellor George osborne sets outsplans to shrink welfare state.

2014-01-08 1/6(no) 4/1(yes)Scottish Government Finance SecretaryJohn Swinney claims Westminstereconomic policies damaging recovery.

2014-01-28 1/5(no) 7/2(yes)Scottish Government justice ministerKenny Macaskill accused of misleadingScottish Parliament over police counterclosures while disgraced SnP MSPBill Walker lodges appeal against hisconviction for domestic abuse.

Polls have consistently shown that Scots are most likelyto vote no on September 18 — but will that change overthe next six months? By Professor John Curtice

another 20% who admit that they might

In short, no more than one inthree votes may still be potentiallyup for grabs. If so, then one side

oddsTImelIne

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polling day. For the most part, undecidedvoters seem to be a little more inclinedat present to vote Yes than No, but notin sufficient numbers to transform thereferendum race.

moreover, many an undecidedvoter still has to be convinced thatindependence would be worth it.

Scotland’s future rests on whetheror not they are eventually persuaded

otherwise.l J o h n c u r t i c e i sP r o f e s s o r o f Po l i t i c s ,S t r a t h c ly d e u n ive r s i t y

and chief commentator atwhatscotlandthinks.org

Q: Who can vote?

A:You can vote in the referendum ifyou are resident in Scotland and willbe aged 16 or over on September 182014. You must also be a British, EUor Commonwealth citizen.

If you want to vote in thereferendum, you must be registeredby September 2 2014.

Q: If I turn 16 onSeptember 18 can I vote?

A: Yes, if you are aged 15 now butwill turn 16 on or September 18then you can register and vote in thereferendum.

Q: How long does someonehave to have been a residentin Scotland for before theyqualify for a vote?

A: There is no minimum residencyrequirement as long as you areresident in Scotland when you registerand come to vote. There are specialar rangements in place to enablemembers of the armed forces andtheir families who would be livingin Scotland if not for their service toregister and vote at the referendum.More information is available atwww.aboutmyvote.co.uk

Q: How do people register?

A: Most people register to vote bycompleting and returning the annualcanvass registration form which issent to all households in autumn each

year. If you didn’t return your form,or you have moved house since then,you can register by f illing in a format www.aboutmyvote.co.uk. You willneed to print and sign the form andsend it back to your local registrationoffice by the deadline of September 22014.

Q: Do the details of all16-year-olds allowed tovote in the referendum thenhave to be destroyed by theirrelevant local authority?

A: In order to vote in the referendum,you will need to be on the Scottishlocal government register or theRegister of Young Voters.

The Register of Young Voters willcontain details of all those who will be

16 or 17 on the day of the referendum,but who are not eligible to be includedon the local government registerbecause of their age. The Register ofYoung voters will only be used for thereferendum and will be destroyed afterthe poll.

Q: How can people cast theirvote?

A: Most people vote in person at theirpolling station which is open from 7amuntil 10pm on polling day. However,you can also apply to vote by post ifyou would f ind it more convenientthan going to the polling station. If youare unable to go to the polling stationbut do not want to vote by post thenyou can apply to do so by proxy whereyou appoint someone you trust to

You can vote in the referendum ifyou are resident in Scotland and willbe aged 16 or over on September 182014. You must also be a British, EU

If you want to vote in thereferendum, you must be registered

Yes, if you are aged 15 now butwill turn 16 on or September 18then you can register and vote in the

Voting fine detail: who, where and when?The Courier & AdverTiser Tuesday, March 18, 2014RefeRendum201414

The Courierquizzed theElectoralCommissionon the finerdetails of thereferendum,including allthe ways youcan vote andwho is eligible

16 or 17 on the day of the referendum,but who are not eligible to be includedon the local government registerbecause of their age. The Register ofYoung voters will only be used for the

Age 16-17 is‘right time’to engageyoung voters

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SixTEEn and 17-year-olds will be given a vote inSeptember ’s referendumon Scottish independence.When the move to extendthe voting franchise to16 and 17-year-olds wasannounced, deputy FirstMinister nicola Sturgeonsaid it is only right thatthose with the biggeststake in Scotland’s futurebe allowed to have theirsay.

Louise Cameron, vice-chai r o f the Scott ishYouth Parliament, saysthe move could increaseyoung people’s interestsin politics generally.

and she said when16-year-olds are able toleave school, pay tax,marry, have children andjoin the armed forces thenit is only common senseto allow them to have theright to a vote.

The 17-year-old said:“i think it is so importantthat 16 and 17-year-oldsget the right to vote.

“There are so manylaws that affect them andthey are allowed to marry,join the army and have topay tax,” she said.

Louise added that sheis in favour of lett ing16-year- o lds vo te inal l elections, not justt h e i n d e p e n d e n c ereferendum.

She said: “People are,generally, not engagedwith politics so it is goodto get them when theyare still at school wherethey can get an educationabout it and develop theirinterest.

“among young peoplewho can vote, the turnoutis usually pretty low buti think if they providedthem with extra support tolearn about it they wouldtake more of an interest.”

She added: “i think 16or 17 years old is the righttime to do it.

“By the time peopleare 18 they are thinkingabout leaving school, so itis maybe better to engagethem when they are moreinterested.”

L ou i s e added t h eScottish Youth Parliamentis working to ensure youngpeople are given as muchimpartial information aspossible in the run-up toSeptember’s vote.

vote on your behalf. The deadline forapplying for a postal or proxy vote forthe referendum is 5pm on September3 2014. You can find postal and proxyvote application forms along withmore information about the differentways of voting at www.aboutmyvote.co.uk

Q: What is the deadline forpostal votes?

A: That’s 5pm on September 32014

Q: Where will polling stationsbe located?

A: If you have registered to vote youwill be sent a poll card telling you

where your polling station is. It isoften a nearby school or a communitycentre. If you do not receive yourpoll card, you can contact your localcouncil to find out where your pollingstation is.

Q: Will schools be closed onpolling day?

A: This is a decision for individuallocal authorities.

Q: When will the votes becounted?

A : C o u n t i n g o f v o t e s w i l lbegin immediately after the closeof the poll at 10pm on ThursdaySeptember 18.

Q: How willthe votes becounted (i.e. willthere be counts/declarations ineach region,what are thepracticalities of theislands)?

A:There will be 32 localcounts — one in eachcouncil area in Scotland.These counts will berun by local CountingOff icers (usually theChief Executive of thecouncil).

Once all the ballotshave been counted theCounting Off icer willrelay the local total to theChief Counting Off icerfor the referendum whowill confirm the figuresbefore authorising thedeclaration of the localtotal.

Once all the 32 localtotals have been received,conf irmed and collatedthe Chie f Coun t ingOff icer will be able todeclare the referendumresult.

Q: Will there be afinal declarationof the result and,if so, where will ittake place?

A: The final referendumresult will be declared inEdinburgh by the Chief

Counting Off icer for thereferendum.

Q: When is the final resultexpected?

A: It is diff icult to predict when thef inal result might be announced asit is dependent on how long it takesfor each of the 32 local counts to becompleted. The timing of local countscan be affected by a range of factorsincluding the level of turnout (morevoters means more votes to count) orthe distance that ballot boxes have totravel between polling stations and thecount venue after the polls close.

The weather can have an impact onthose councils where polling takesplace on different islands and theyhave to bring the ballot boxes in to thecount by boat or air.

The best estimate for when the resultcan be expected is sometime on themorning of Friday September 19.

Q: How willthe votes becounted (i.e. willthere be counts/declarations ineach region,what are thepracticalities of theislands)?

A:counts — one in eachcouncil area in Scotland.These counts will berun by local CountingOff icers (usually theChief Executive of thecouncil).

have been counted theCounting Off icer willrelay the local total to theChief Counting Off icerfor the referendum whowill confirm the figuresbefore authorising thedeclaration of the localtotal.

totals have been received,conf irmed and collatedthe Chie f Coun t ingOff icer will be able todeclare the referendumresult.

Q: Will there be afinal declarationof the result and,if so, where will ittake place?

A:result will be declared inEdinburgh by the Chief

Counting Off icer for thereferendum.

oting fine detail: who, where and when?The Courier & AdverTiser Tuesday, March 18, 2014 RefeRendum2014

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While many peoplehave praised the ScottishGovernment for extendingthe referendum vote to16-year-olds, not everyoneagrees.

S t u a r t Wa i t o n , acriminology and sociologyl e c tu r e r a t abe r t a yUniversity, says it doesnot make sense to allowpeople of these ages to votewhen other rights are beingstripped away from them.

he said: “Rarely has thefranchise been widenedwithout a fight, usually afight from ‘below’. Today,however, we find theopposite is the case and it isthe political and professionalelites in Scotland who arehanding 16 and 17-year-olds the vote.

“One depressing ironyabout this development isthat while independenceappears to be somethingthe Scottish First ministeralex Salmond wants youngpeople to be involved in, inmany other areas of theirlives the opposite is thecase.

“For example, in 2010 theSnP attempted to increasethe legal age of buyingalcohol from shops from18 to 21, while in 2007 alaw was passed banning thesale of cigarettes to 16 and17-year-olds.”

mr Wai ton added:“Classified as ‘at risk’ or‘vulnerable’, we end up inthe strange situation whereyoung people are seen asincapable of deciding whatto spend their money onin their local corner shop,while being allowed to voteon independence.”

he says fewer than twoper cent of Scots now getmarried before they are 20and that although 16-year-olds can join the army,they will not be put on thefrontline until they are 18.

“This is a patronisingform of inclusion, indeedan infantilisation of theimportance of voting itself:something that is to be givento a section of society whoare largely still at school ordependent on their parents,and have not had, as yet,to make or take any trulyindependent decisions intheir lives,” he said.

“What is ult imatelyreflected in the lowering ofthe voting age is a diminutionof the importance of politicsitself.”

Sendingout mixedmessages

Tell us whatyou thinkabout the

referendum

The Courier & AdverTiser Tuesday, March 18, 2014RefeRendum201416

The Courier: we’rewith you all the way

The Courier will visit 90 towns and villages during the run-up to September 18’s vote.

2014 is set to be themos t impor tan t yea rin scottish histor y forcenturies.

since the union wasformed in 1707, scotshave never been giventhe option of leaving,despite two referenda— one successful, theother not — on devolvingpowers.

A n d b e f o r e t h a tmomen tous dec i s i onis taken, The Courierwants to know what you,the reader, thinks abouti n d e p e n d e n c e a n dthe referendum debateso far.

s ta r t i ng a t Eas te r,The Courier will mounta major roadshow thatwill travel across CourierCountry — stopping atdozens of towns andv i l l a g e s a c r o s scentral and north-east scot land —to find out whatour readers feelabout september18 and beyond.

We w i l l t a kethe debate di rect toou r r e ade r s , g i v i n gthem the opportunity togril l representatives oft h e Ye s and Be t t e rTo g e t h e r c a m p a i g n sand to ai r the i r own

views about thereferendum.

Dur ing the journeywe will also be carryingout an unprecedenteds u r v e y o f r e a d e r s ’

The Courier will visit 90 towns and villages during the run-up to September 18’s vote.

Country — stopping atdozens of towns andv i l l a g e s a c r o s scentral and north-east scot land —

We w i l l t a kethe debate di rect toou r r e ade r s , g i v i n g views about the conce rns and vo t ing

intentions.And as if that was not

enough, in June we willhost four major publicdebates — one each in

Perth, Dundee, Fife andAngus — where the publicwill be able to quiz seniorYes and Better Togetherrepresentatives as well asimpartial experts.

Needless to say, wewill cover all events inThe Cour i e r, mak ingsure our readers arefully informed about theindependence debate.

As the referendum debate enters its final six months,The Courier will be taking to the road to find out whatthe vote means to you . . .Where you

can catchThe Courierroadshow

Refe

rend

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14Th

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ay,S

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ThE CouriEr is hittingthe r oad t o sp r eadinformation and find outwhat you think about thebig issues facing scotlandin the run up to thereferendum.

our comprehens i veroadshow will commencein April (please note —dates subject to change,check The Courier closerto the time for full andfinal details).

Tell us what

YouR viewK

Roadshowtimeline

April22: Glenrothes and Markinch23: Bridge of Earn and Errol24: letham (Angus) and Glamis25: invergowrie and longforgan28: Anstruther and Crail29: Monifieth and Broughty Ferry30: Montrose and Arbroath

MAy1: Balbeggie, Burrelton and CouparAngus2: Burntisland and Crossgates5: Dunfermline and Townhill6: Comrie and Crieff7: Falkland and Strathmiglo8: Edzell and Brechin9: Alyth and Blairgowrie12: Auchterarder and Dunning13: leven and Methilhill14: Aberfeldy and Kenmore15: Stobswell and Hilltown16: Forfar and Kirriemuir26: lochgelly and Cardenden27: Dunblane and Doune28: Cupar and Springfield29: Fettercairn and laurencekirk30: Almondbank and Methven

JunE2: leuchars and St Andrews3: Kirkcaldy and Dysart4: Blair Atholl and Kinloch rannoch5: Stirling and Bridge of Allan6: Auchtermuchty and newburgh9: Kelty and Cowdenbeath10: luncarty, Stanley and Bankfoot11: Dalgety Bay and rosyth12: Dundee City Centre and Fintry13: ladybank and Kingskettle16: pitlochry and Dunkeld+Birnam17: Buckhaven and Methil18: inverbervie and Stonehaven19: Scone and perth20: Colinsburgh and St Monans23: inverkeithing and n Queensferry24: Kinross and Milnathort25: lower largo and upper largo26: Tayport and newport on Tay27: Arbroath and Carnoustie

oN sEPTEmBEr 18voters will go the polls in

a ballot that, whatever theresult, is likely to change ournation forever.

Whether you backindependence or not, thereis no doubt the decisiontaken this autumn will havefar-reaching consequences.

relatively few generationsare given such a chance toshape the future in sucha meaningful way and we

want to know what you, asCourier readers, make of thebiggest question faced byscots in 300 years.

over the next six monthsan army of politicians fromboth Yes and Better Togetherwill be doing all in theirpower to influence your vote.

But have you beenconvinced by the argumentsput forward by either side?Are you still to be persuaded?

is enough being done

to ensure voters are fullyarmed with the facts priorto september 18? What arethe biggest issues which willinfluence your vote?

You can let us know yourthoughts by taking part in ourexclusive referendum survey.

organised by the DCThomson readers’ panel YourView K, which gives peoplethe chance to win £150each month for giving theirviews, the results will provide

a fascinating insight into themood of the nation.

To have your say visitwww.completeasur vey.co.uk/yourviewk and aftersigning up click on the “Youropinions on the referendum”button. Aternatively followthe links at www.thecourier.co.uk.

By completing thissurvey you will be underno obligation to take part infurther surveys.