country risk assessment map • january 2017risk+assessment+january+2017_gb.pdf · country risk...
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UNITED STATES
MEXICO
ALGERIA
ICELAND
CCO
MALI
TUNISIA
COSTA RICA
PANAMA
REPUBLIC
HAITI
CUBA
GUATEMALAEL SALVADOR
NICARAGUA
HONDURAS
JAMAICA
GUINEA
SIERRA LEONE
LIBERIA GHANA
MAURITIUS
ILE DE LA RÉUNION
GROENLAND(DENMARK)
BURKINAFASO
SENEGALCABO VERDE
ITALY
SPAINPORTUGAL
FRANCE
GERMANY
SWITZERLAND
CANADAIRELAND
UNITED KINGDOM
BELGIUM
BELIZE
BRAZIL
ARGENTINA
PERU
BOLIVIA
VENEZUELA
ECUADOR
KENYA
DR CONGO
SOUTH AFRICA
LESOTHO
ANGOLA
NAMIBIA
ZAMBIA
MOZAMBIQUE
COLOMBIAFRENCHGUYANA
DOMINICAN
GUYANASURINAME
BURUNDI
UGANDA
MALAWI
ZIMBABWE
BOTSWANAPARAGUAY
CHILE
URUGUAY
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
LIBYAEGYPT
SUDAN
MADAGASCAR
NIGER
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
ETHIOPIA
TANZANIA
MAURITANIA
GABON
NIGERIA
CHAD
IVORYCOAST
TOGO
SAO TOME& PRINCIPE
RWANDA
ERITREA
CAMEROON
BENIN
CONGO
SAUDIARABIA
PAKISTAN
OMAN
YEMEN
IRAQIRAN
DJIBOUTI
KUWAIT
UNITEDARABEMIRATES
AFGHANISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
INDIA
TURKEY
BANGLADESH
ISRAEL
JORDAN
SYRIALEBANON
CYPRUS
NEPAL
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTANTURKMENISTAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
BAHRAINQATAR
UZBEKISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
HUNGARY
POLAND
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
BOSNIA
GREECE
AUSTRIA
SLOVENIA
CZECHREPUBLIC
SLOVAKIA
NORWAY
SWEDEN
FINLAND
UKRAINE
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ESTONIA
BELARUS
CHINA
INDONESIA
PHILIPPINES
MORO
SRI LANKA
MYANMAR
VIETNAMCAMBODIA
LAOS
MALAYSIA
TAIWAN
MALDIVES
HONG KONG
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
RUSSIA
AUSTRALIA
MONGOLIA
JAPAN
PAPUANEW GUINEA
NEW ZEALAND
SOUTH KOREA
GUINEA-BISSAU
SERBIA
MALTA
PALESTINIANTERRITORIES
NORTH KOREA
COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • JANUARY 2017
A2
CB
B
A3
A4
C
C
TURKEY
GERMANY
FRANCE
ITALY
SPAIN
UNITED KINGDOM
FINLAND
SWEDEN
DENMARK
PORTUGAL
ICELAND
IRELAND
RUSSIA
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ROMANIA
POLAND
UKRAINE
BULGARIA
HUNGARY
SLOVAKIA
CZECHREPUBLIC
GREECE
ALBANIA
MONTENEGRO
BOSNIA
CROATIA
SERBIA
NETHERLANDS
LUXEMBOURG
ESTONIA
BELARUS
MALTA
CYPRUS
MOLDOVA
BELGIUM
NORWAY
SLOVENIA
MACEDONIA
SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA
160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASSA UNIQUE METHODOLOGY• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience
DOWNGRADESUPGRADES
RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING
VERY LOW LOW QUITE ACCEPTABLE ACCEPTABLE SIGNIFICANT HIGH VERY HIGH EXTREME
A1 A2 A3 A4 B C D E
• End of a ten-month political impasse
• Dynamic, despite slowing, economic
growth: +2.3 % in 2017• Corporate debt has
decreased and business insolvencies
continue to fall• Good export
performance
A3
• Uncertainties over possible protectionist measures related to trade with the USA
• Public investment will be limited, due to continued fiscal restraints as a result of low oil-related revenues
• Economy remains below its growth potential
• The massive influx of refugees has weighed down on wage dynamics, within a context of high unemployment and rising inflation
• High public debt
BC MEXICOSPAIN JORDAN
• Very low growth and contraction of manufacturing activity
• Higher political risk and social discontent
• The rand is expected to remain highly volatile and capital inflows are uncertain
A4KENYA
• Recovery in tourism, greater public investment and improved business climate
• Exports (tea and horticultural products) will continue to increase
• Growth of 4% expected in 2017
• Capital control liberalisation underway is a positive signal for foreign investors
• The level of public debt has fallen sharply and the fiscal budget is expected to remain in surplus
A2ICELAND
• Improvement of the business environment
• Launch of cooperation with China on transport and energy infrastructure
• Accelerating private investment
CPAKISTAN CSOUTH AFRICA
• Confirmation of recovery, with moderate growth
• Consolidation of the banking sector
A4BULGARIABARGENTINA
• Improved businessenvironment since the election of President Macri: liberalizationof the exchange rate, abolition of restrictions on access to foreign exchangeand easing of administrative procedures for imports / exports
D
B
B
A2
C
B
A4