Shiva Pd. Nepal, DHM

South Asia Drought Monitor Workshop Dhaka Bangladesh 20th April 2015

Country Presentation-Nepal

Mt.Everest,

Overview

Brief Climatology

Climate activities- DHM

PPCR (Pilot Program for Climate Resilience) and BRCH

Drought related activities in Nepal

Nepal is strongly Influenced by

Monsoon Circulation

Based on

Monsoon Phenomenon

Four Seasons

•Pre- Monsoon( March-May)

•Monsoon( June – September)

•Post Monsoon( October- November)

•Winter ( December- February)

Brief Climatology

-General Seasons in Nepal

22 28 3559

137

285

490

428

271

67

10 15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Norm

al ra

infa

ll (m

m)

Month

Source: DHM

3.5

12.5

79.8

4.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Winter Premonsoon Monsoon Postmonsoon

% o

f Nor

mal

rain

fall

Season

Seasonal/Monthly Rainfall Variation

Monthly Rainfall Variation

Normal Monsoon and winter Rainfall Pattern

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88

27

28

29

30

Dadeldhura

Dhangadhi

Jumla

Surkhet

Nepalgunj Dang

Bhairahawa

Pokhara

Simara

Kathmandu

Okhaldhunga

Dhankuta

Biratnagar

Taplejung

Dipayal

Monsoon Normal precipitation (mm) (1981-2010)

0 250 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88

27

28

29

30

Dadeldhura

Dhangadhi

Jumla

Surkhet

Nepalgunj Dang

Bhairahawa

Pokhara

Simara

Kathmandu

Okhaldhunga

Dhankuta

Biratnagar

Taplejung

Dipayal

Fig.2: Winter normal precipitation (mm)

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Trend of Monsoon Onset

Trend of Monsoon Withdrawal

Source: Saraju K Baidya, , M. L. Shrestha

Monsoon Trends – Onset & Withdrawal

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Year

No trend

Increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events (> 100 mm/day)

Rainfall Extremes

Number of rainy days y = -0.1653x + 104.37

R2 = 0.0664

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

12019

71

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Year

Day

s

Number of days with rain >= 100 mmy = 0.4161x + 63.581

R2 = 0.0563

0

20

40

60

80

100

12019

71

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Year

Day

s

Source : S. Baidya ,DHM

-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Death Missing Injured

Western Nepal flood

(13-14 August 2014)96 115 32

People

Heavy rainfall of 13-15th August, 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

0

400

800

1200

1600

1-J

un

12-J

un

23-J

un

4-J

ul

15

-Ju

l

26

-Ju

l

6-A

ug

17-A

ug

28-A

ug

8-S

ep

19-S

ep

30-S

ep

Rain

fall

(%

)

Rain

fall

(m

m)

Date

Accum. Normal

Accum. 2014(mm / %)

Surkhet

Characteristics of Winter Precipitation

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88

27

28

29

30

Dadeldhura

Dhangadhi

Jumla

Surkhet

Nepalgunj Dang

Bhairahawa

Pokhara

Simara

Kathmandu

Okhaldhunga

Dhankuta

Biratnagar

Taplejung

Dipayal

Fig.2: Winter normal precipitation (mm)

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

y = 0.0069x + 47.408 y = -1.419x + 2904.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

19

71

19

76

19

81

19

86

19

91

19

96

20

01

20

06

20

11

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

)Year

Winter droughts becoming more frequent

Severe Extreme droughts observed in the recent decade Winter Fog/ cold wave

-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1.0

SPI in 2006 drought

SPI in 2008 drought

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0

-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5

SPI in 2009 drought

Winter drought

• Water table decreased

• Wells, tube-wells, natural water

spouts dried

• Water shortage

• Energy crisis declared (up to 16

hours of load-shedding/day)

SPI Value: Drought Category:

2.00 and above Extremely wet

1.50 to 1.99 Very wet

1.00 to 1.49 Moderately wet

-0.99 to 0.99 Near normal

-1.00 to -1.49 Moderately dry

-1.50 to -1.99 Severely dry

-2.00 and less Extremely dry

Source : S. Baidya ,DHM

Climate Activities-DHM

Extreme Rainfall and Air Temperature Monitoring

Daily temperature monitoring and Rainfall monitoring

Monsoon Monitoring

Weekly, Monthly and Seasonal Climate Reports

Year Book publication

Daily Temperature Monitoring at Kathmandu Airport

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

Day (Month)

Daily Maximum temperature

Nor mal 20 12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

Day (Month)

Daily Minimum temperature

Nor mal 20 12

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un

22-J

un

29-J

un

6-Ju

l

13-J

ul

20-J

ul

27-J

ul

3-A

ug

10-A

ug

17-A

ug

24-A

ug

31-A

ug

7-S

ep

14-S

ep

21-S

ep

28-S

ep

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (°

C)

Day (Month)

Daily Maximum temperature anomaly

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un

22-J

un

29-J

un

6-Ju

l

13-J

ul

20-J

ul

27-J

ul

3-A

ug

10-A

ug

17-A

ug

24-A

ug

31-A

ug

7-S

ep

14-S

ep

21-S

ep

28-S

ep

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (°

C)

Day (Month)

Daily Minimum temperature anomaly

Sourc

e :

DH

M

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1-J

un

12-J

un

23-J

un

4-J

ul

15-J

ul

26-J

ul

6-A

ug

17-A

ug

28-A

ug

8-S

ep

19-S

ep

30-S

ep

Rain

fall

(%

)

Rain

fall

(m

m)

Date

Accum. Normal

Accum. 2014(mm / %)

Janakpur

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1-J

un

12-J

un

23-J

un

4-J

ul

15-J

ul

26-J

ul

6-A

ug

17-A

ug

28-A

ug

8-S

ep

19-S

ep

30-S

ep

Rain

fall

(%

)

Rain

fall

(m

m)

Date

Accum. Normal

Accum. 2014(mm / %)

Kathmandu

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1-J

un

12-J

un

23-J

un

4-J

ul

15-J

ul

26-J

ul

6-A

ug

17-A

ug

28-A

ug

8-S

ep

19-S

ep

30-S

ep

Rain

fall

(%

)

Rain

fall

(m

m)

Date

Accum. Normal

Accum. 2014(mm / %)

Simara

Monsoon 2014 Accumulated Rainfall

Source : DHM

Nearly 87%

Nepal Average Monsoon Rainfall in 2014

Main Objectives

• Increase government capacity to mitigate Climate-related hazards by

improving the accuracy and timeliness of weather and flood forecasts.

• Early Warnings for climate vulnerable communities.

• Developing agricultural management information system services to

help farmers to mitigate climate-related production risks.

Project: Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) ,

Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (BRCH)

Under PPCR – BRCH project:

• Establishment of 3 Radio sound Stations ( Vertical profile of

Atmosphere).

• Establishment of 100 AWS (15 Agro met) and 74 Hydrological

stations

Establishment of 3 Weather Radar Stations to cover whole Nepal.

Establishment of GIS Lab

• Improvement of Forecasting skills 3 to 5 days

• Improvement of Seasonal forecasting skills.

• Developing agricultural management information system services to

help farmers to mitigate climate-related production risks

-Agro Advisory and weather based Crop insurance for Formers in

25 pilot districts

AMIS Projects Pilot Districts

Proposed agro call center

Proposed SMS services

Proposed web portal

Drought related activities in Nepal

• Winter Drought monitoring -few case study using SPI ( DHM)

• Satellite Remote sensing based Crop Monitoring System (ICIMOD)

• Agro Advisory and weather based Crop insurance for Formers in 25

Pilot districts in Nepal ( PPCR project ( MoAD/DHM /NARC)

• Use of Space Technology for Drought Monitoring and Early

Warning in Nepal – (UNESCAP up coming project )