COTTON and RICE:Situation and Outlook

John Michael Riley

Assistant Extension Professor

Mississippi State University

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009

US Cotton Acreage

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009 Source: USDA, NASS

Acreage Breakdown by State

7/27/2009 AAEA: Extension Outlook Section Source: USDA, NASS

US Cotton Balance Sheet2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/010

Million AcresPlanted acres 14.25 15.27 10.83 9.47 9.05Harvested acres 13.80 12.73 10.49 7.57 7.90Abandonment 96.9% 83.4% 96.9% 79.9% 87.3%

Lbs/AcresYield/harvested acre 831 814 879 813 805

Million BalesBeginning  stocks 5.5 6.1 9.5 10.0 6.0Production 23.9 21.6 19.2 12.8 13.3Imports 28 19 12 5 5Total supply 29.4 27.7 28.7 22.9 19.3Domestic mill use 5.9 4.9 4.6 3.6 3.5Exports 17.5 13.0 13.7 13.3 10.2Total use 23.4 17.9 18.2 16.9 13.7Ending stocks 6.1 9.5 10.0 6.0 5.6

Stocks‐to‐Use 25.9% 52.8% 55.1% 35.6% 40.9%AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009

Source: USDA, WAOB

Stocks‐to‐Use

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009Source: USDA, WAOB

US Cotton Exports

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009Source: USDA, WAOB

US Dollar Index

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009

Major Producing Countries(Excluding US)

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009Source: USDA, WAOB

Total Global Production

Other

USUzbekistanPakistan

India

China

Brazil

Australia

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009Source: USDA, WAOB

Global Balance Sheet

7/27/2009 AAEA: Extension Outlook Section

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Million BalesProduction 116.7 122.0 120.5 106.9 106.0Imports 44.5 37.4 38.0 28.7 31.7Total Supply 161.2 159.3 158.5 135.6 137.6

Domestic Use 116.4 123.0 122.3 110.3 112.6Exports 44.6 37.0 38.3 29.1 31.7Total Use 161.0 160.0 160.6 139.4 144.3

Ending Stocks 62.2 63.3 63.3 61.9 57.8Stocks‐to‐Use 38.7% 39.5% 39.4% 44.4% 40.1%

Source: USDA, WAOB

Cotton Crop Progress

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009Source: USDA, NASS

Cotton Basis Trends

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009 Source: USDA, ERS; ICE

Cotton Cost of Production by Region

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009Source: USDA, ERS

December CT Futures Price

7/27/2009 AAEA: Extension Outlook SectionSource: ICE

RICE

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009

Global Grain Ending Stocks

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009Source: USDA, WAOB

Global Grain Stocks‐to‐Use

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009Source: USDA, WAOB

Rice: Acres Harvested

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009Source: USDA, NASS

2009 Rice Harvested Acres by State

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009

Total: 3 Mil Acres

Source: USDA, NASS

US Rice Balance Sheet2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Million Acres

Planted Acres 3.38 2.84 2.76 3.00 3.02Harvested Acres 3.36 2.82 2.75 2.98 3.00

lbs/acreYield/harvested acre 6,636 6,898 7,219 6,846 7,033

Million Hundredweight

Beginning  stocks 37.7 43.0 39.3 29.4 21.7Production 223.2 194.6 198.4 203.7 211.0Imports 17.1 20.6 23.9 19.0 21.0Total supply 278.1 258.2 261.6 252.2 253.7

Domestic & Residual Use 120.2 128.1 126.8 132.5 132.0Exports 114.9 90.8 105.4 98.0 99.0

‐Rough‐ 33.4 32.1 37.7 34.0 34.0‐Milled‐ 81.4 58.7 67.7 61.0 65.0

Total Use 235.1 218.8 232.2 230.5 231.0Ending Stocks 43.0 39.3 29.4 21.7 22.7

Stocks‐to‐Use 18.3% 18.0% 12.7% 9.4% 9.8%AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009

Source: USDA, WAOB

Rice: Crop Progress

AAEA: Extension Outlook Section7/27/2009Source: USDA, NASS

September RR Futures Price

7/27/2009 AAEA: Extension Outlook SectionSource: CBOT

• Notes:– Information for the 2008/09 marketing year are USDA estimates

– Information for the 2009/10 marketing year are USDA projections

7/27/2009 AAEA: Extension Outlook Section