cotto analyst conference q4/18 - scg ceramics...“cotto” analyst conference q4/18 thursday,...
TRANSCRIPT
“COTTO” Analyst Conference Q4/18
Thursday, January 24, 2019
2
Agenda
I. Market Situation and Performance
II. Financial Updates
III. Outlook
3
Market Situation
o Q4/18 ceramic tiles demand in Thailand increased +1%
y-o-y due to agricultural price increasing and upcoming
election in 2019, while FY2018 growth dropped -2% y-o-y
o For export situation, ceramic tiles demand in Cambodia,
Laos, Myanmar was positive from both residential and
non-residential segment
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81% 77% 72% 79% 80% 75% 78% 80%
2% 5% 1%
0.7%
19%21% 23%
21%19%
25% 22% 20%
3,455 3,306 3,405
2,8113,099 2,949 2,797 2,713
Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18
Domestic
Non-Ceramics
Export
Revenue from Sales
*Non-Ceramics: Revenue from land selling at Nong Khae Industrial Estate
Total revenue Q4/18 decreased -3% y-o-y, -3% q-o-q while FY2018 dropped
-11% y-o-y
-3% y-o-y
-3% q-o-q
77%78%
2%
0.4%
21%
22%
12,977
11,557
FY2017 FY2018
Revenue from Sales
(FY2018)
Unit: MB
Non-Recurring Revenue
- 60 163 - 24 - - 19 223 43
5
83% 79% 76% 78%80% 74% 77% 79%
17%21% 24%
22%20%
26% 23% 21%
21.1 19.9 19.516.6
18.8 17.9 16.8 16.2
161 161
165168
162 163165 165
120
160
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18
Domestic
Export
Average Selling Price
Sales Volume and Average Price
Q4/18 SCG Ceramics’s sales volume decreased -2% y-o-y while the average
price -2% y-o-y and remain unchanged from last quarter
Average Price
M.Sq.m.Sales Volume
Q4 Volume Change
-2% y-o-y
-3% q-o-q
Remark: Only ceramics tiles
Baht/Sq.m.
79%78%
21%
22%
77.1
69.6
FY2017 FY2018
Sales Volume
6
Sales Volume by Segment
(2) Only ceramics tiles
86%84%
14%
16%
77.1
69.6
FY2017 FY2018
Sales Volume
Unit: M.sq.m.
*Remark: (1) Definition of segmentation
Medium – High (portion 20%-30% of total market) – Wall Tile (Big size), Glazed Porcelain, Unglazed Porcelain, Mosaic, Glass Tile
Mass – Medium (portion 70%-80% of total market) – Floor Tile, Wall Tile (Small size), Outsource unglazed
88% 87% 86%84%
86% 85% 85% 82%
12%14% 14%
16%14% 15%
15% 18%
21.120.0 19.5
16.618.8 17.9
16.8 16.2
0
10
20
30
40
Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18
Mass-Medium
Medium-High
Q4-Volume Change
-2% y-o-y
-3% q-o-q
7
Domestic Sales volume by region
Remark: Only domestic ceramics tiles
10%
50%
10%
30%
South Region
Metropolitan
Central Region
North & Northeast
region
Market Situation FY2018Q4/18
y-o-y
FY2018
y-o-y
-3%
-0.5%
-2%
-1%
+1%
-2%
+3%
-4%
Downsizing scale in hotel segment in
Northern and growth demand in NE due
to rice price increased
Demand from residential segment in metro
region. Project low-rise in suburb area
continuous growth align with sky train &
subway route, while high-rise dropped.
Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) urged
demand, especially Pattaya and
Sattahip area.
In general, demand decelerated due to
low rate in rubber and palm price. While
demand in tourist province increased
from construction in hotel-medium size
and renovation segment.
8
285357
457
316
209248
45
232
Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18
Unit: MB
EBITDA
EBITDA Q4/18 dropped -27% y-o-y and FY2018 dropped -48%
-27% y-o-y
+420% q-o-q
EBITDA Change EBITDA FY2018
(-48% y-o-y)
1,298
734
117
248
FY2017 FY2018
EBITDA Margin
8.3% 10.8% 13.4% 11.3% 6.7% 8.4% 1.6% 8.6%
983
1,415
Without non-recurring expense
Non-
Recurring
Expense
Non-Recurring
Income
10.9% 6.4%
EBITDA Margin without non-recurring
8.3% 9.7% 10.8% 11.5% 7.2% 8.9% 9.2% 8.8% 10.0% 8.5%
9
Profit for the Period
Profit for the period Q4/18 decreased -49% y-o-y, FY2018 decreased -98%
74
140
232
130
34 19
-109
66
Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18
-49% y-o-y
+160% q-o-q
Profit Change Profit FY2018
(-98% y-o-y)
482
10
94
198
FY2017 FY2018
Unit: MB
Without non-recurring expense
Key Non-Recurring - 29 72 (7) (12) (11) (170) (6)
- - - - - - (162) -
- - - (7) (21) (11) (8) (17)
- 29 72 - 9 - - 11
1)MSP (Loss)
2)Consultant Fee (Loss)
3)Profit from land selling
74 111 160 137 46 30 61 74
Profit for the Period (without Key non-recurring)
482 210
94 (198)
- (162)
(7) (57)
101 20
576
210
Non-
Recurring
Expense
Non-Recurring
Income
10
Operating Variable Cost
45% 42%
36%41%
19%18%
Q4/17 Q4/18
Assign Cost
Energy Cost
Raw Material Cost
Operating variable cost FY2018 climbed 5% y-o-y mainly from natural gas
cost increased 23% y-o-y
Remark: Only ceramics tiles
+22% y-o-y
-2% y-o-y
+1% y-o-y
- Mainly natural gas cost
- Mainly repair & maintenance cost and labor cost
- Mainly raw material cost
45% 43%
36% 39%
19%18%
FY2017 FY2018
+15% y-o-y
-4% y-o-y
+1% y-o-y
11
Agenda
I. Market Situation and Performance
II. Financial Updates
III. Outlook
12
711
505
FY2017 FY2018
FY2018 CAPEX and Interest & Financial Costs
Amounted to 505MB for FY2018, mainly
upgrade machine, cost saving project and retail
outlet expansion
CAPEX
37
25
FY2017 FY2018
Interest and Financial Costs
Amounted to 25 MB in FY2018
Unit: MB Unit: MB
13
FY2018 Net Debt
Leverage rose to 0.6 times (x)
0
441
FY2017 FY2018
Net debt on EBITDA - 0.6
Unit: MB
14
FY2018 EBITDA on Assets and EBITDA Margin
11.0%
6.3%
FY2017 FY2018
10.9% 6.4%
EBITDA on Assets
EBITDA margin
*Remark: EBITDA on Assets = EBITDA/ Consolidates assets
EBITDA margin = EBITDA/ Consolidated sales
15
Agenda
I. Market Situation and Performance
II. Financial Updates
III. Outlook
16
Outlook
o Thailand’s ceramic tiles demand Q1/19 are forecasted
to increase +2% due to high season period
o In the export market, demands in neighbor country
continue to be positive
17
End of PresentationThank you