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Cost Estimate
Cost Estimate
The total project cost for purchase and testing of the cost for the E951 15T Pulsed Magnet is $540k, of which $55k is for MIT-PSFC manufacture follow, and $60 k is for MIT testing of the completed magnet. No contingency is recommended based on a review of recent MIT-PSFC projects in which the BNL magnet estimate is considered representative, and the BNL cryostat cost is considered substantially conservative. The BNL pulsed magnet cost consists of four major components:
Magnet Winding (three segments)
Vacuum Vessel and Cryostat
Manufacture Supervision (MIT-PSFC personnel)
Testing (at MIT-PSFC facility, only LN2 cooling)
The first two are covered by the specification for the manufacture of the coil and related vessels. The vacuum vessel and cryostat will be costed based on a weight scaling of a recent set of bids for the HCX prototype magnet. The BNL magnet will be costed from a bottoms-up estimate of time and materials, with a “sanity check” against other (fusion related) costs. Specification documentation related costs will be added to this estimate. These are attributable to both the magnet and the vessels. The vessel costs are also compared with costs for the LDX L coil and cryostat currently under construction by Everson.
The manufacture supervision is an estimate provided by MIT –PSFC to assist in the bidding process and provide technical oversight during the manufacturing and shop testing of the magnet system. This is based on the original cost estimate prepared by Rui Vieira. Testing at MIT would require set-up, instrumentation, cool-down using LN2, and powering to 15T. Rui has recently confirmed the validity of the $60K testing cost at MIT-PSFC. The $55k cost for MIT activities to evaluate bids and watch over fabrication is uncertain, depending on the performance of the vendor. It could be as low as $20k to support evaluation of bids, contract award, with modest MIT-PSFC support for BNL representatives in the shop, or closer to the $55k with many trips to the vendor by MIT representatives to oversee critical processes or resolve difficulties. For a “high-end” vendor like GA, it would be closer to $20k and for Everson it would be closer to $55k.
Table 1. Summary Cost Estimate for Industry fabrication of Pulsed Copper Coil
Vacuum Jacket, and Cryostat
Cost($1000) Inner Two Modules
Cost($1000) Three Modules
Total Magnet Fabrication
126.6
234.4
Vendor Engineering Documentation and Overhead
20
20
He Pressure Can, Central Support tube and Vacuum Jacket
165
165
Support Frame
5
5
Shipping (Guess)
1
1
Total
317.6
425.4
Table 2. Summary Cost Estimate for MIT-PSFC Manufacture Liason, and Final Testing
Cost($1000) Inner Two Modules
Cost($1000) Three Modules
Bid Evaluation/Manufacture Supervision (MIT-PSFC personnel)
55
55
Testing (at MIT-PSFC facility, Only LN2 cooling)
60
60
Total
$115
$115
Contingency:
None of the estimates above include contingency. This is largely a judgment call based on the level of finality in the design, and past experience with similar contracts. In the table below, the FIRE contingency is 40% for the TF – This is largely Advanced Energy System’s judgment with PPPL’s concurrence, and reflects the uncertainty in handling Beryllium copper. The FIRE CS/PF contingency is more representative, as there were only OFHC coils at the time FIRE was costed. This contingency is 33%, but note that the cost/kg with contingency is similar to our estimate for the BNL magnet. In discussions with Brad Smith, he recommends 20-30% for his projects, and in Rui’s original BNL estimate he recommends 10%.
Magnet Comparison’s Based on Cost/kg
Without contingency
With contingency
BNL Pulsed Magnet
$62.7/kg
?
FIRE TF (OFHC Adjusted)
$65.9/kg
$88.3/kg
FIRE CS/PF Magnet Fabrication
$50/kg
$66.67/kg
LDX coil Bid Price
$205/kg – But see below
LDX coil with cost over-runs
$256/kg – But see below
The BNL estimate looks good compared with the FIRE estimates without contingency. The LDX coil cost per kg is large, but these costs are skewed by the very small conductor cross section (2mm X 8mm), low weight and long winding lengths. For such a labor-intensive winding, costs are more likely related to conductor length:
Magnet Comparisons Based on Cost/m of conductor
without contingency
BNL Pulsed Magnet
$73/m conductor length
LDX Fcoil bid
$41/m of winding length
LDX coil with cost over-runs
$54/m of winding length
In this comparison, the BNL estimate looks conservative.
Vessel Comparison’s Based on Cost/kg
without contingency
with contingency
BNL Pulsed Magnet Cryostat
$206/kg
?
HCX Prototype Cryostat, Average bid and BNL Pulsed Magnet basis
$206/kg
C-Mod Vacuum Vessel (actual 1989$)
$165.5/kg
(BPX Estimate 1992$)
?
$106.9/kg (probably was 30%)
HCX Prototype Cryostat, Low bid
$160/kg
LDX L Coil Cryostat Everson Original Contract
$55/kg
The BNL cryostat is closer to the L coil cryostat in degree of complexity. Choosing the HCX cryostat average bid costing as a basis includes an “effective” contingency of nearly 400%.
Magnet Costs:
Unit Costs:
Copper cost= 15 $/kg or $6.82/lb
Ref: Original Rui Vieira quote
Past Cost data: Rui Vieira quoted (11-20-91) $2.80/lb (6.16$/kg) for copper conductor
and $15 /lb ($33/kg)for beryllium copper Elbradur, and Glidcop – these are material costs only
Peter Marston quoted copper conductor as 6.6 $/kg and aluminum (1990) at 3.3 $/kg
Aluminum Cost=$7.50/kg or $3.4/lb(assumed ½ cost of copper)
Fiberglass tape cost = .3562985 $/meter
Price from Carolina Narrow Fabrics Co. $543 for 5000 ft. of 1 inch by .005” s glass tape. E glass is available in .003” thickness.
Technician labor rate per hour= 40 $/hr
Epoxy cost= 3000 $/CuMeter, 50% backup
Ramps/Transitions cost= $80/ramp segment
This is based on G-10 machined end turn filler pieces for the AHF project that are $80 per
piece. There are 2 ramps and two transitions per layer. This was a cost problem for the
LDX F coil and required a $15K additional cost for MIT machining the ramps and fillers,
that Everson had difficulty manufacturing. Water jet cutting of wet-lay up cylinders is
suggested as a cheaper solution.
Magnet Quantities
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
Volume (m^3) 9.2362824e-2
.15393804
.21551326
numturn
624
624
624
weight (kg)
748.04651
1246.7442
1745.4419
conlen (M)
641.4085
1069.0142
1496.6198
tapelen (M)
5131.268
8552.1133
11972.959
epoxyvol (M^3)
8.3126542e-3
1.3854424e-2
1.9396193e-2
Num Ramp/Trans
32
32
32
Magnet Costs
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
costs
cost cu ($)
11220.698
18701.163
26181.628
cost tape ($)
1828.2631
3047.1052
4265.9472
cost lab ($)
10262.536
17104.227
23945.917
cost die ($)
2000
2000
2000
cost Mandrel ($)
10000
16666.667
23333.333
cost of Epoxy ($)
24.937962
41.563271
58.188579
Ramps/transitions
2560
2560
2560
Cost of impregnation
5000
5000
5000
42896.435062
65120.725471
87345.013779
20%Profit/mark-up factor
1.2
1.2
1.2
$51,475.72
$78,144.87
$104,814.02
Total 3 segments
$234,434.61
Total 2 segments
$129,620.59
Total Costs( three segments)
Total Conductor Cost= , 56103.488
Total Fiberglas tape Cost= 9141.3155
Total Die cost= , 6000
Total Winding Labor Cost= , 51312.68
Total Winding Mandrel Cost= , 50000
Total Epoxy Cost= , $124.69
Total Cost for 3 Segments, $234,434 .61This is 234434.61/(748.04651+1246.7442+1745.4419)=$62.7/kg
234434.61/(641.4+1069.0+1496.6) = $73.1/m conductor length
For comparison sake, The cost to wind the HTc LDX levitating coil was $75k This included no conductor, because the conductor was supplied by American Superconductor. The BNL estimate for three segments summarized above - minus the copper cost is $169114.
Winding the LDX Floating Coil
The pancake on the left has been wound and is being held with the wooden clamp. This leaves both terminations at the coil OD. The remainder of the turns are layer wound
Another comparison can be made with the recent fabrication of the LDX floating coil winding at Everson. This was bid at $57k(ref. personal communications with Brad Smith,) and had some cost over-runs, that were peculiar to the delicate reacted Nb3Sn conductor. The contract excluded conductor cost. It was a react and wind process, and the winding proceeded in a manner similar to the planned BNL winding, with the exception that greater care was needed to handle the conductor. . The conductor length at 1500 m was similar to the larger segment of the BNL coil. The conductor weight is small however, because the conductor cross section is only 2 by 8 mm, making the cost per kg relatively large. The impregnation also was similar. The BNL pulsed magnet could be thought of as three LDX floating coils, or three times the $57k or $171K exclusive of the conductor cost. The BNL estimate for three segments minus the copper cost is $169,114. So the BNL estimate compares favorably with the LDX winding experience. The F coil winding weighs about 300 kg, If you add the cost of 300 kg ($4500 at $15/kg) of copper to the $57k the cost is $61,500/300=$205/kg, much higher than estimated for BNL’s magnet.
Support Frame
The frame is made up of 4” square aluminum tubing. 4 verticals of 1.241m length, 2 diagonals of about 1.5m length, 4 longitudinal horizontal members of 1.168m length and 4 triangular legs supporting the center of about 1.0meter length, 6 horizontal transverse members of 1.168m length for about 24m of total length. Assume 30 m with wastage. Assume 3/16 wall thickness. The total weight of the required frame is 30*39.37*16*3/16*.1 lbs/in^3=354 lbs. The material cost is $3.4/lb or $1207 for the 354 lbs of aluminum The piece count is 20 lengths. Assume 2 cuts and one weld per piece length, $5/cut and $10/weld, or $400 to cut and weld the frame. Allow $500 for drilling and misc. plates. Total Vendor cost $2107. Guess $5000 our cost.
June 5- 7, 2001 FIRE External Review 13
TF Coil Cost Estimates
Item
Cost –M
Contingency- M
Total- M
TF Winding Packs
$91.30
$31.03
$122.33
TF cases and structure
$5.50
$1.70
$7.20
Assembly of coils and cases
$2.40
$0.73
$3.13
TF power & cryo Interfaces
$1.80
$0.37
$2.17
Engrg. & Design
$13.60
$3.40
$17.00
Total
$151.83
Weight per coil (winding + case): 43.3 tonnes (95260 lbs.)
Cost per coil: $9.5M;
$/kg= 219.15)
$/ lb.: 99.61
Considering only the TF winding pack without structure, and without contingency, the unit cost would be 91.3/151.83*219.15=$131.7/kg
In this estimate 25% of the conductor is BeCu, which is five times more expensive than OFHC copper.Handling of the Be Cu also figures into the total expense. Setting the Copper-only unit cost as U, then $131.7/kg =5 *.25*U+.75*U.
U then is 131.7/2=$65.9/kg without contingency, $88.3/kg with contingency
CS/PF Coil Cost Estimates
Coil No.
R( m)
N( turns)
I (kA)
NI (kA- T)
Weight-kG
CS1U
0.61
200
64.3
12860
19000
CS1L
0.61
200
64.3
12860
19000
CS2U
0.61
100
73.7
7370
11000
CS2L
0.61
100
73.7
7370
11000
CS3U
0.61
100
73.7
7370
11000
CS3L
0.61
100 73.7
7370
11000
PF1U
0.8
80
57 4560
10000
PF1L
0.8
80
57 4560
10000
PF2U
1.2
80
57 4560
15000
PF2L
1.2
80
57 4560
15000
Total
132000 kG
Solenoid Assembly ,$6.6M+$ 2.2M contingency.= ,$8.8M Total
$/ kg= $66.67,
$50/kg without contingency
$/ lb. = $30.30:
In this version of FIRE, the CS and PFs were OFHC copper.
Cryostat and Vacuum Jacket:
The High Current Experiment (HCX) prototype magnet is being developed by LLNL (N. Martovetsky), Advanced Magnet Lab, and MIT-PSFC. The HCX cryostat was recently (August 2002) bid by MIT-PSFC. The coil was not included in the purchase. It is a superconducting coil, and has a full double walled vessel, along with reasonably complex penetrations, and a lead stack. It weighs about 700 lbs(318kg), and the “reasonable” bids ranged from $51k to $80k (ref. personal communications with Chen Yu Gung of MIT-PSFC.) Using the average bid, the cost per kg is $206/kg, $160/kg based on the low bid. The 3D cryostat finite element model of the BNL cryostat and vacuum jacket, sums to .105 cu. meter which would make it’s weight 1827lbs. The projected cost based on HCX weight scaling would be $130 to $200k. In the summary table, $165k is used for the cryostat and vacuum jacket. The cost per pound based on the HCX cryostat is then 165000/1827=90.3 $/lb. Another cryostat, for which we have cost data, is being purchased for the LDX project. The cryostat for the levitating coil is being fabricated by Everson, and was a part of a coil winding effort as well. Phil Michaels tells me it weighs about 2000 lbs and the original bid price was $49700, for a cost of about $25/lb or $55/kg. This appears to be unreasonably low, but illustrated the conservatism of the selected cost basis. The vacuum vessel purchased for C-Mod in ~1988 cost $165.5/kg.
Volume
Mass
He Cryostat
.08727m^3
759kg
Vacuum Jacket
.01748m^3
152kg
Total
.105m^3
911kg
The 1990 cost estimate for the BPX vacuum vessel worked out to $106.9/kg. So the $206/kg used for the BNL cost basis is conservative or just about right if you account for some escalation. . Sketches of the LDX L coil cryostat, and the HCX prototype cryostat appear below and can be assessed for their similarity with the BNL pulsed magnet cryostat.
Final assembly of the HCX prototype cryostat, which consists of two major subsystems: a lower quadrupole cryostat and an upper cryostat for vapor cool leads (VCL block).
Fig. 2a Side view of the prototype cryostat
Fig. 2b Prototype cryostat, view along the beam line. The overall height to the top flange of VCL block is roughly 130”.
Documentation/Engineering Overhead
The minimum documentation required by the specification, and supplied by the Bidder and Seller is listed in the following table.
Title
Preparation MH
Review/Vendor Comment Resolution MH
Quality Assurance Program Manuel
0,Exists
2
Fabrication Plan
16
2
Winding Test Results
16
2
Winding Procedures
24
2
Epoxy Fill Sketches
4
2
Notice of Electrical Tests
2
2
Notice of Flow Tests
2
2
Notice of Helium Vessel Proof Test
2
2
Notice of Vacuum Jacket Proof Test
2
2
Deviation Request Forms
0
0
Non-Conformance Forms
0
0
Final As-Built Drawings
40
20
Conductor Witness Samples
2
2
Special Handling Instructions
2
2
Totals
112
42
This is 152 MH of mixed Engineer Draftsman and/or Technician time assume a labor rate of $100 this is $15200. Guestimate a mark-up/profit - use $20k
Rui Vieira’s Original Quote for MIT-PSFC Services:
Table 2. Budgetary estimate for design, fabrication supervision, and testing and installation of pulsed copper magnets January 2, 2002 - October 31, 2002
Person-Months
Funds
Phase
One
Phase
Two
Phase
Three
Phase
One
Phase
Two
Phase
Three
Summary
ENGR
FAB
TEST
Magnet
Design
Fabr. Supervision
Acceptance
Testing
ENGINEERING PERSONNEL
3.2
2.54
1.7
$48,500
$37,000
$22,000
$107,500
OTHER PERSONNEL
Designers
2.9
0
0
$26,000
$0
$0
$26,000
Technicians
0
0
2
$0
$0
$18,000
$18,000
Other(Allocated Admin. Support)
$5,000
$4,000
$4,000
$13,000
TOTAL OTHER PERSONNEL
$31,000
$4,000
$22,000
$57,000
TOTAL SALARIES, WAGES
& FRINGE
BENE
FITS
$79,500
$41,000
$44,000
$164,500
TRAVEL 1. Domestic
$2,400
$13,000
$5,200
$20,600
OTHER COSTS
1. Materials and Supplies
$800
$300
$750
$1,850
2. Liquid Nitrogen
$0
$0
$5,000
$5,000
3. Computer Services
$2,000
$450
$1,000
$3,450
4. Electrical Components
$0
$0
$2,000
$2,000
5. Mechanical Components
$0
$0
$1,800
$1,800
6. Other: Allocated Lab Expense
$300
$250
$250
$800
TOTAL OTHER DIRECT COSTS
$3,100
$1,000
$10,800
$14,900
TOTAL COSTS of PROJECT
$85,000
$55,000
$60,000
$200,000
Notes:
1) All costs are fully loaded
2) Phase I duration: 4 Months, Jan. 2, 2002 - April 30, 2002
3) Phase II duration: May 1, 2002 - August 31, 2002
4) Phase III duration: September 1, 2002 - October 31, 2002
�
FE model of LDX Vacuum Vessel, and LN2 Can used to check weights. element
volume is 5018 cu in (twice this half section for a weight of 1455
This is missing the helium can, shields and coil supports, but these
Shouldn’t be too heavy. Phil’s quoted 2000 lbs seems reasonable.
Quadrupole Cryostat
Transition Box
VCL Block
Quadrupole Cryostat
�
LDX levitating coil cryostat