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Cost Effectiveness of Technology Solutions for Future Vehicle

Systems

Tom RyanSouthwest Research Institute

SAE International

Reducing CO2 Footprint

Two ways to reduce the CO2 footprint of vehicle systems

Efficiency ImprovementAlternative Fuels

Hypothesis: Efficiency improvements always make sense and should receive the highest priority. Alternative fuels are limited by supply issues and may not always make sense.

Basic Question

What are the economic costs or benefits for CO2 control through vehicle efficiency improvements?

Can the customer save money while preserving the atmosphere?

Cost Benefit of CO2 Reduction

ScopeInformation derived from ARB funded NESCCAF study, June 2004 (California)

Retail price & cost increaseCO2 savingsCustomer Net cost effect

SwRI study, 2008Cost differences, in-house cost modelEuropean ScenarioUpdate of Net cost for 2008 fuel prices

Assessed Net Lifetime Cost vs CO2 Levels from Grouped Technologies(derived from NESCAFF GHG Study, Large Car data, M-H, baseline 215g/km CO2)

-12000.00

-10000.00

-8000.00

-6000.00

-4000.00

-2000.00

0.0090.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 180.0 190.0 200.0

CO2 Levels with technology improvements (g/km)

Net

Life

time

cost

s (E

uro)

0.45 Euro/L($2.58/USG)

0.35 Euro/L(8.83$/USG)

0.7 Euro/L($4/USG)

1.05 Euro/L($6/USG)

Negative "Cost" is net customer lifetime

(240,000km) saving

120g/km European level (NEDC)

2004 CARB Proposed CO2 Phase In

200

250

300

350

400

450

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Model Year

M-H

CO

2 (g

/mile

)

125

188

250

M-H

CO

2 (g

/km

)

PassengerCars

Light DutyTrucks

0.095g/km/kg(1400kg ITW)

0.097g/km/kg (2000kg ITW)

120g/km CO2 NEDC ~0.06g/km/kg (2000kg ITW)

120g/km CO2 NEDC ~0.086g/km/kg (1400kg ITW)

60% 100% 30%30% 60% 100%30%

Metro-Highway (M-H) CO2 reduction vs Cost & Retail Price Increase (RPI)(derived from CARB Martec Study, June 2004)

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500Incremental Cost and RPI for Technology (Euro/US car vs 2004 baseline)

M-H

CO

2 R

ecuc

tion

(vs

base

)

42V 10kW ISG + motor

HSDI

Elect. AccessoriesCVT

6 spd auto

6 spd auto manual

Variable A/C Comp.

Manufactured oncost Retail Price Increase1259 kg Curb Weight2.3L, Auto 4spd (2004) I4 base,182 g/km CO2 M-H Ref. Oncost Threshold?

Retail Price Threshold?42V 10kW ISG

Non-Engine Items

Diesel or Spark Ignition

Engineor

Electric motor

IVT

Auxiliarygearbox

Flywheel

Flywheel hub(and optional

electric motor)

Diesel or Spark Ignition

Engineor

Electric motor

IVT

AuxiliarygearboxAuxiliarygearbox

FlywheelFlywheel


electric motor)


electric motor)

INTERACTING TECHNOLOGIES

Mul

ti Po

int F

uel i

njec

tion

λ=1

Afte

rtre

atm

ent

Cam

Pha

ser (

In)

Cam

Pha

ser (

Ex)

Cam

Pha

ser (

Dua

l)

Cam

Pha

ser (

Cou

pled

)Va

riabl

e Li

ft-D

iscr

ete

Varia

ble

Lift-

Con

tinuo

usC

amle

ss-E

lect

rohy

drau

licTu

rboc

harg

ing

Elec

t. A

ssis

t tur

bo (E

AT)

Cyl

inde

r de-

activ

atio

nVa

riabl

e C

harg

e M

otio

nG

DI-λ

=1G

DI-D

ilute

SI H

CC

I

CI H

SDI

CI H

CC

I/mul

timod

e

HED

GE

Multi Point Fuel injectionλ=1 Aftertreatment YCam Phaser (In) Y YCam Phaser (Ex) Y Y YCam Phaser (Dual) Y Y N NCam Phaser (Coupled) Y Y N N NVariable Lift-Discrete Y Y Y Y Y YVariable Lift-Continuous Y Y Y Y Y Y NCamless-Electrohydraulic Y Y N N N N N NTurbocharging Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y YElect. Assist turbo (EAT) Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y NCylinder de-activation Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N NVariable Charge Motion Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N YGDI-λ=1 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y YGDI-Dilute Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y Y N N NSI HCCI Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y N N N N N NCI HSDI N N N N N N N N Y Y Y N N N N NCI HCCI/multimode N N N N N N N N Y Y Y Y N N N N NHEDGE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N

Methodology

IndividualTechnology

Identification

Price & Costing

Drive Cycle CO2

Technology Grouping

Vehicle Performance

Checks

Cost/Benefit

Net Cost

Net Cost per avoided CO2

Payback Period

Correlation of US M-H combined & NEDC fuel consumptions

Derived Information from ARB Study

Key Aspects

ARB (NESCCAF) study used Martec to assess price variances for technologies; updated by SwRI cost model

NESCCAF deduced manufacturing cost relationship to retail price;

updated with SwRI cost model

AVL performed US M-H drive cycle predictions for CO2

variances; additional points added with correlated SwRI drive model, and transposition of M-H CO2 data to NEDC

Effects of individual and grouped technologies considered, but only “grouped”

technologies pursued.

Baseline is 2004MY ~1600kg (curb weight) 3.2L V6, 4 speed auto with 345g/mile (215g/km) CO2

,,~1260kg (curb weight) 2.4L I4, 4 speed auto with 291g/mile (182g/km) CO2

Price & cost are projected for 2008 onwards

Predicted M-H CO2 Reduction vs $US Price & Cost Changes

Effect of Selected Individual technologies, showing assessed $US

retail price increase and cost increase

Metro-Highway (M-H) CO2 reduction vs Cost & Retail Price Increase (RPI)(derived from CARB Martec Study, June 2004; HSDI values 6% increased over Martec)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500Incremental Cost and RPI for Technology ($/US car vs 2004 baseline)

M-H

CO

2 R

ecuc

tion

(vs

base

)

Advanced HEV

HSDI

Moderate HEV

HSDI/HCCIHEDGE

GDI-Dil.Ad.VVA Hydraulic Camless

SI/HCCI

Manufactured oncostRetail Price Increase

Ref. Market Point ?

Retail Price Threshold?

Ref. Oncost Threshold?

1259 kg Curb Weight2.3L, Auto 4spd (2004) I4 base,291 g/mile CO2 M-H

Engine Items only

M-H

CO

2 R

educ

tion

(vs B

ase)

Predicted M-H CO2 Reduction vs Price & Cost Changes

Non Engine technologies……

Metro-Highway (M-H) CO2 reduction vs Cost & Retail Price Increase (RPI)(derived from CARB Martec Study, June 2004)

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500

Incremental Cost and RPI for Technology (Euro/US car vs 2002 baseline)

M-H

CO

2 R

ecuc

tion

(vs

base

)

42V 10kW ISG + motor

HSDI

Elect. AccessoriesCVT

6 spd auto

6 spd auto manual

Variable A/C Comp.

Manufactured oncost Retail Price Increase1259 kg Curb Weight2.3L, Auto 4spd (2004) I4 base,182 g/km CO2 M-H2002

Ref. Oncost Threshold?

Retail Price Threshold?42V 10kW ISG

Non-Engine Items

M-H

CO

2 R

educ

tion

(vs B

ase)

Predicted M-H CO2 Reduction vs Price & Cost Changes

Large car results: $US

Metro-Highway (M-H) CO2 reduction vs $US Cost & Retail Price Increase (RPI)(derived from CARB Study, June 2004: HSDI values 14% higher than Martec)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200Incremental Cost and RPI for Technology ($US/US car vs 2002 baseline)

M-H

CO

2 R

ecuc

tion

(vs

base

)

Advanced HEV

HSDI

Moderate HEV

HSDI/HCCIHEDGE

GDI-Dil.Ad.VVA

Hydraulic Camless

SI/HCCI

1600 kg Curb Weight3.2L V6, Auto 4spd base,345 g/km CO2 M-H(2002)

Turbo

GDI-Stoich

$2266 oncost

$3183 RPI

M-H

CO

2 R

educ

tion

(vs B

ase)

1600 kg Curb Weight3.2L V6, Auto 4 spd Base345 g/mi CO2 M-H(2002)

Correlations

In order to transpose the previous data from the US Metro-

Highway to NEDC, the following relationships are examined:

US M-H vs NEDC fuel consumption correlation (as this is currently the most plentiful data for both markets)

Fuel consumption vs CO2 correlation

Correlation of Metro-Highway & NEDC Fuel Consumptions

Most vehicle specs in above data are same in terms of engine size and transmission for both markets

2007 US Metro-Highway & 2007 NEDC Fuel Consumption Comparisons

(Certification Data, ~30 vehicles with common USA & Europe specs.)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0US M-H Fuel Cons. (L/100km)

NED

C F

uel C

ons.

(L/1

00km

)

Cost of Ownership Assumptions

10 Years240,000 km5% inflation rate

Assessed Net Lifetime Cost vs CO2 Levels from Grouped Technologies(derived from NESCAFF GHG Study, Large Car data, M-H)

-1500.00

-1000.00

-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200


Net

Life

time

cost

s (E

uro)

0.35 Euro/L(2$/USG)


(240,000km) saving


Comparison of NESCCAF & SwRI Curve fits

NESCCAF

SwRI

Net Cost Savings for Customer

Comparison of NESCCAF and SwRI Net Cost to Customer over 10 years, including 5% inflation/year


-8000.00

-6000.00

-4000.00

-2000.00

0.00

2000.00

90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 180.0 190.0 200.0


Net

Life

time

cost

s (E

uro)

0.45 Euro/L(2.58$/USG)

0.35 Euro/L(2$/USG)

0.7 Euro/L(4$/USG)

1.05 Euro/L(6$/USG)


(240,000km) saving



Net costs calculated by NESCCAF method for Euro 0.35-1.05/L fuel costs, adjusted for inflation


….and at current UK fuel prices….


-12000.00

-10000.00

-8000.00

-6000.00

-4000.00

-2000.00

0.0090.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 180.0 190.0 200.0


Net

Life

time

cost

s (E

uro)

0.45 Euro/L($2.58/USG)

1.58 Euro/L(8.83$/USG)

0.7 Euro/L($4/USG)

1.05 Euro/L($6/USG)


(240,000km) saving



…And the effect of only 160,000km use in 10 years


-12000.00

-10000.00

-8000.00

-6000.00

-4000.00

-2000.00

0.0090 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200


Net

Life

time

cost

s (E

uro)

1.58 Euro/L(8.83$/USG)Negative "Cost" is net

customer lifetime saving


160,000km/ 10 years

240,000km /10 years

Lifetime Net Cost per avoided Tonne CO2 per Customer vs CO2 Levels(LARGE car, 240,000km)

-600.0

-500.0

-400.0

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0

Large car M-H CO2/km

Net

Cos

t Ben

efit

avoi

ded

Tonn

e C

O2

(Eur

o/to

nne)

1.58 Euro/L($8.83/USG)

0.7 Euro/L(4$/USG)

1.05 Euro/L(6$/USG)

0.45 Euro/L(2.58$/USG)

Negative CO2 "Cost/benefit" is customer saving per avoided

CO2 tonne

Net Cost/ton avoided CO2 vs vehicle CO2 levels

At current prices, European customers will personally save

> Euro 500 per tonne of CO2 avoided, at least to ~160g/km, the benefit reducing

to ~Euro 450 at 120 g/km CO2

ConclusionsThe net lifetime cost of CO2 reductions by added engine technology is negative for current and likely future fuel pricing, i.e. the customer benefits, as well as the climate.

For current fuel prices in Europe, the cost savings for the customer is 7000EU at 130 g/km CO2

Thank you

Tom [email protected]

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