corporate financial theory lecture 4. factors in capital budgeting & capital structure decisions...
TRANSCRIPT
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CORPORATE FINANCIALTHEORY
Lecture 4
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Factors In Capital Budgeting & Capital Structure Decisions
Market Values vs. all others Cost of Capital Competition Bankruptcy Signaling Hypothesis Bondholder Wealth Expropriation Theory Agency costs
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Topic Evolution
How To Measure Value (NPV, etc.)
Risk Return Trade Off (CAPM, etc.)
Modify Cash Flows
Scenario Analysis
Decision Tree
etc.
Modify Interest RatesWACC
APM
etc.
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How To Create Positive NPVs
Past Finance Math = Easy
Today Creating Value = Hard
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Smart investment decisions make MORE money than smart financing decisions
Smart investments are worth more than they cost:
= Positive NPVs
Firms calculate project NPVs by discounting forecast cash flows, but . . .
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS&
QUESTIONS TO ASK
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Source of Positive NPVs
Projects may appear to have positive NPVs because of forecasting errorse.g. some acquisitions result from errors in a DCF analysis
Don’t make investment decisions on the basis of errors in your DCF analysis.
Start with the market price of the asset and ask whether it is worth more to you than to others.
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS&
QUESTIONS TO ASK
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Source of Positive NPVs
Trust Market Values
Positive NPVs stem from a comparative advantage Look for comparative advantages
Strategic decision-making identifies this comparative advantage; it does not identify growth areas
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS&
QUESTIONS TO ASK
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Source of Positive NPVs
Don’t assume that other firms will watch passively.Ask --How long a lead do I have over my rivals? What will happen to prices when that lead disappears
In the meantime how will rivals react to my move? Will they cut prices or imitate my product?
Adjust your NPV calculations accordingly
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS&
QUESTIONS TO ASK
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Do Projects Have Positive NPVs? Rents = profits that more than cover
the cost of capital NPV = PV (rents) Rents come only when you have a better
product, lower costs, some other competitive edge…or lower cost of capital
Sooner or later competition is likely to eliminate rents
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Value Path
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Source of Positive NPVs
Comparative advantage Higher cash flows Lower COC Innovation Risk taking Good corporate governance
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Other Factors in CS & CB
Signaling Hypothesis
Bondholder Wealth Expropriation Theory
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Agency Theory and
Corporate Governance
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Public Company Shareholders
Holdings of Corporate Equities as of 3rd quarter 2010© McGraw Hill Corp.2011
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Asset Category 2005 2012 2005 2012
US Equity 40% 24% 61% 50%
Global Equity 20% 26%
Marketable Alternatives 0% 2% 11% 26%
Real Assets 6% 10%
Private Equity/ VC 5% 14%
Fixed Income 26% 20% 28% 24%
Cash 2% 4%
CalPERS Asset Allocation
Asset Category 2005 2012 2005 2012
US Equity 40% 24% 61% 50%
Global Equity 20% 26%
Marketable Alternatives 0% 2% 11% 26%
Real Assets 6% 10%
Private Equity/ VC 5% 14%
Fixed Income 26% 20% 28% 24%
Cash 2% 4%
Source: CalPERS 2005 Annual Investment Report, http://www.calpers.ca.gov/index.jsp?bc=/investments/assets/assetallocation.xml
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Asset Category 2005 2012 2005 2012
US Equity 45% 18% 67% 36%
Global Equity 22% 19%
Marketable Alternatives 4% 21% 8% 46%
Real Assets 3% 14%
Private Equity/ VC 2% 11%
Fixed Income 16% 13% 24% 18%
Cash 8% 5%
CICF Asset Allocation
Asset Category 2005 2012 2005 2012
US Equity 45% 18% 67% 36%
Global Equity 22% 19%
Marketable Alternatives 4% 21% 8% 46%
Real Assets 3% 14%
Private Equity/ VC 2% 11%
Fixed Income 16% 13% 24% 18%
Cash 8% 5%
Source: CICF 2006 Audit Report, CICF Portfolio Review, June 30, 2012
1997 Textbook Asset Allocation Recommendation
Stocks 75%
Bonds 15%
Treasury bills 10%
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Role of The Financial Manager
Financial
managerFirm's
operations
Financial
markets
(1) Cash raised from investors
(1)
(2) Cash invested in firm
(2)
(3) Cash generated by operations
(3)
(4a) Cash reinvested
(4a)
(4b) Cash returned to investors
(4b)
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The Principal Agent Problem
Shareholders = Owners
Managers = Employees
Question: Who has the power?
Answer: Managers
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Corporate Governance
OwnerManagerSole Proprietor
Owner / ManagerPartnership
ManagerOwnerPublic Corporation
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Corporate Governance (Public Cos.)
OWNERS
Fractured Limited resources Low incentive
MANAGERS
Organized Significant
resources Motivated Lobby state
legislatures
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Governance Measures
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Governance Measures
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Corporate Governance: History
Results:1. “Anti-Investor Laws”
• Began in 1968 (Williams Act)• Peaked in1987 (CTS Corp. v. Dynamics)
2. Shareholder rights groups• Institutional Shareholder Services (1985)• Council of Institutional Investors (1985)• Activist institutional investors (CalPERS)
3. Legislative Reactions• Sarbanes-Oxley• Dodd-Frank
4. others…
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Corporate Governance Research
QuestionDoes the level of shareholder rights correspond
with public company equity prices?
Corporate Governance And Equity PricesGompers, Ishii, Metrick, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Feb 2003, Vol. 118, Issue 1
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Corporate Governance ResearchCorporate Governance And Equity PricesGompers, Ishii, Metrick, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Feb 2003, Vol. 118, Issue 1
Study• 1,500 publically traded
firms• 1990-1999• Governance Rating
(G-Index)• 10 Categories• “Dictatorship” to
“Democracy”
ResultsPositive G-Index
• Higher firm value• Higher profits• Higher sales growth• Efficient CAPEX• Higher Tobins’s Q
+ 11.4% per G category (up from 2.2%)
• Fewer Takeovers
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Corporate Governance ResearchCorporate Governance And Equity PricesGompers, Ishii, Metrick, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Feb 2003, Vol. 118, Issue 1
• Seminal work in governance & equity prices• 517 citations in Business Source Premier
Does Delaware Law Improve Firm Value? Daines, Robert, Journal of Financial Economics, LXII (2001), 525–558.
Investor Protection and Corporate Valuation La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Vishny, Journal of Finance. June 2002, Vol. 57 Issue 3, p1147-1170.
Corporate Governance, Product Market Competition, and Equity PricesGiroud and Mueller, The Journal Of Finance, vol. LXVI, no. 2, April 2011, 563-600
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Indiana & Investors
POSITIVES
LP, LLC, etc. laws Secretary of State
Online filings Investor protection
Property tax cap Lower corp. tax rates Right-to-work State fiscal health,
IEDC, etc. Higher education
NEGATIVES
Public company laws Takeover target Reduced capital
formationGovernance SuccessOld National Bank (ONB)• 99.1 Governance Score• Best governance in peer
group• Ethisphere Award• Largest Indiana public bank• Profit Margin = 17.94%• Earn. Gr. (yoy) = 59.90%• Major acquisition firm
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Financial Market Functions
Source of funding Investor liquidity Risk management Source of information
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Market Information Problems1. Consistent Forecasts2. Reducing Forecast Bias3. Getting Senior Management Needed
Information4. Eliminating Conflicts of InterestThe correct
information is …
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Corporate Governance Problems
1. Ballot issues2. Maximizing value (whose?)3. Shareholder illusion of control and
shareholder rights4. Corporate law5. Institutional Shareholder Services
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Incentives
Reduced effort Perks Empire building Entrenching investment Avoiding risk
Agency Problems in Capital Budgeting
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Incentive Issues
Monitoring - Reviewing the actions of managers and providing incentives to maximize shareholder value.
Free Rider Problem - When owners rely on the efforts of others to monitor the company.
Management Compensation - How to pay managers so as to reduce the cost and need for monitoring and to maximize shareholder value.
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CEO Compensation (2010)
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CEO Compensation
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Measuring performance
MVA EVA & Residual income Economic Income CFROI
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MVA
Market Value Added
MVA = Market Cap year 2 – Market cap year 1
or
MVA = Market Cap – Book Value
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Residual Income & EVA
• Techniques for overcoming errors in accounting measurements of performance.
• Emphasizes NPV concepts in performance evaluation over accounting standards.
• Looks more to long term than short term decisions.
• More closely tracks shareholder value than accounting measurements.
• EVA by Stern and Stewart out of Boston
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Residual Income & EVA
Income
Sales 550
COGS 275
Selling, G&A 75
200
taxes @ 35% 70
Net Income $130
Assets
Net W.C. 80
Property, plant and equipment 1170
less depr. 360
Net Invest.. 810
Other assets 110
Total Assets $1,000
Quayle City Subduction Plant ($mil)
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Residual Income & EVA
Quayle City Subduction Plant ($mil)
13.000,1
130ROI
Given COC = 10%
%3%10%13 NetROI
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Residual Income & EVA
Investment Capital ofCost - Earned Income
required income-Earned Income
Income Residual
EVA
Residual Income or EVA = Net Dollar return after deducting the cost of capital
© EVA is copyrighted by Stern-Stewart Consulting Firm and used with permission.
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Residual Income & EVA
million
EVA
10$
)000,112(.130
Income Residual
Quayle City Subduction Plant ($mil)
Given COC = 12%
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Economic Profit
Invested Capital)(
Profit Economic
rROI
EP
Economic Profit = capital invested multiplied by the spread between return on investment and the cost of capital.
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Economic Profit
$10million
1,000.12)-.13(
Invested Capital)(
rROIEP
Quayle City Subduction Plant ($mil)
Example at 12% COC continued.
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Message of EVA
• Pros and Cons of EVA• Pros
• Managers motivated to invest in projects that earn more than they cost
• Makes cost of capital visible to managers
• Leads to reduction in assets employed
• Cons
• Does not measure present value
• Rewards quick paybacks
• Ignores time value of money
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EVA of US firms - 2005
Econimic Value Added (EVA)
Capital Invested
Return on Capital
Cost of Capital
Microsoft 8,247 28,159 40.9 11.7 Johnson & Johnson 6,601 60,857 19.0 7.8 Wal-Mart Stores 5,199 109,393 10.8 5.8 Merck 3,765 32,400 18.4 7.6 Coca-Cola 3,637 18,353 25.3 5.9 Intel Corp 3,264 34,513 23.2 13.2 Dow Chemical 1,749 44,281 10.2 6.3 Boeing (67) 41,813 5.6 5.8 IBM (196) 71,196 10.5 10.8 Delta Airlines (1,413) 25,639 1.0 6.3 Pfizer (3,838) 209,293 5.8 7.6 Time Warner (5,153) 132,985 3.8 7.8 Lucent Technologies (6,279) 61,987 (0.7) 9.6
($ in millions)
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Accounting Measurements
0
011 )(
price beginning
price in changereceipts cashreturn of Rate
P
PPC
Economic income = cash flow + change in present value
0
011 )(return of Rate
PV
PVPVC
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CFROI(Building a better mouse trap)
• Developed by Holt Value Associates, Inc. in Chicago
• Modified NPV approach
• Basically a “decomposed” DCF model
• Utilizes objective data inputs
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CFROI(Building a better mouse trap)
NCRs = Net Cash Receipts (from operations)
• are derived from sources and uses of funds statements
• Are calculated in 2 parts (existing operations & future investments) Discount Rates
Implied from market, using valuation models
Adjusted for Capital structure Non-operating Assets = Land & others
Assets operating-Non
of Value Realizable
RateDiscount 1 Value Warranted
Firm Total
NCRs
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CFROI(Building a better mouse trap)
Share /Equity Common
Value Equity Common
Value Equity Total
Value Firm Total
Shares Adjusted
Interest Minority -
Stock Preferred &Debt -
Assets operating-Non
sInvestment Future
Assets Existing
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Problem 1
Our company has the opportunity to invest in a project. Our initial outlay is $500. The project will yield $1200 at the end of the fourth year. Given a company cost of capital of 14%, what is the NPV of the project?
50.210500 4)14.1(1200
0
NPV
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Problem 2
You are going to retire next month. An insurance agent offers to sell you an annuity which pays $20,000 per year (at the start of each year) for 15 years. Assuming a yield of 8% on the annuity, how much should you pay for the annuity?
884,184
08.108.
1
08.
12020annuity of PV 14
kk
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Problem 3
If you sign an agreement today (t=0) to borrow $400 at the end of year 1, $400 at the end of year two, and repay $1000 at the end of year three, what is the interest rate you are paying? (hint: calculate the IRR)
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Problem 3
If you sign an agreement today (t=0) to borrow $400 at the end of year 1, $400 at the end of year two, and repay $1000 at the end of year three, what is the interest rate you are paying? (hint: calculate the IRR)
Answer
T0 T1 T2 T3
0 + 400 + 400 - 1000
calculator return 15.83%
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Problem 4
If you attempt to diversify your portfolio using BGE & Disney stock, which Portfolio, A, B, C is possible?
Risk
Return
DIS
BGE
A
B
C
![Page 55: CORPORATE FINANCIAL THEORY Lecture 4. Factors In Capital Budgeting & Capital Structure Decisions Market Values vs. all others Cost of Capital Competition](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022063015/56649e2b5503460f94b1a42f/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Problem 4
If you attempt to diversify your portfolio using BGE & Disney stock, which Portfolio, A, B, C is possible?
Risk
Return
DIS
BGE
A
B
C
![Page 56: CORPORATE FINANCIAL THEORY Lecture 4. Factors In Capital Budgeting & Capital Structure Decisions Market Values vs. all others Cost of Capital Competition](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022063015/56649e2b5503460f94b1a42f/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Problem 5
Based on the success of EuroDisney, Disney wishes to build two additional theme parks (SlavicDisney in Moscow, Russia and AfricaDisney in Lagos, Nigeria). Disney has a cost of capital of 14%. The company is in three industries; Movies,Theme Parks, & Consumer Products, with betas of 1.56, 1.7, and 1.2, respectively. Tbills are yielding 7% and the market return is at 15%.
What discount rate SHOULD the company use when evaluating these projects?
r = .07 + 1.7 ( .15 - .07 ) = 20.60%
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Problem 6
Based on the success of EuroDisney, Disney wishes to build two additional theme parks (SlavicDisney in Moscow, Russia and AfricaDisney in Lagos, Nigeria). Disney has a cost of capital of 14%. The company is in three industries; Movies,Theme Parks, & Consumer Products, with betas of 1.56, 1.7, and 1.2, respectively. Tbills are yielding 7% and the market return is at 15%.
What discount rate should Disney use if it wishes to modernize its consumer products production facility & why?
14% because that is its borrowing rate.
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Problem 7
DogDays Toy Co common stock is providing a 16% return. The company has no debt, but has a bond rating of AA (ytm=9%). Analysts feel that DogDays could add up to 30% debt without altering the required return on debt or equity. The company would like to build a plant to produce doggy basketball equipment, but the IRR is only 14% (where NPV = 0). What action can DogDays take to make the basketball project feasible?
Answer
Take on 30% debt and decrease the company’s COC.
r = 9 (30/100) + 16 (70/100) = 13.90%