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    TERM PAPERON

    CASE

    RELATED TO CAPITAL BUDGETING AND

    PROBABILTY DISTRIBUTION

    CASE ANALYSIS

    OF

    UNIVERSITY CITY LOUNGE

    United International University

    School of Business

    Spring, 2011

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    Submitted to:

    Md. Enamul Haque

    Assistant Professor

    United International University

    Prepared by:

    Suzona Asad 111 081 149

    S.M. Sakib 111 081 205

    Mahim Iqbal Jagirdar 111 081 166

    Ismat Jerin Chetona 111 082

    Date of submission: April 26, 2011

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    3

    S e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e sS e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e s

    This section will focus on:

    Letter of Transmittal

    Acknowledgement

    Executive Summary

    Table of contents

    Introductory Part

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    April 26, 2011

    Md. Enamul Haque

    Assistant Professor

    Course Name: Corporate Finance

    Course Code # BUS 2112

    United International University

    Dhanmondi, Dhaka.

    Dear Sir

    Subject: Submission of Report on Case Study Related to Capital Budgeting and

    Probability Distribution

    With due respect and humble submission, we student of BBA, spring 2011 are submitted

    the report on Case Study Related to Capital Budgeting and Probability Distribution. It

    gives us immense pleasure to inform you that we have completed this report under your

    kind hearted direct supervision.

    Now we have placed this report before you for your approval. We hope that our report

    will satisfy you.

    Sincerely yours,

    ___________

    Suzona Asad

    ID # 111081149

    (On the behalf of)

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    Acknowledgement

    At first we would like to thank almighty God for helping us all the way, and then

    Bachelor of Business Administration (BBA) for having such a wonderful and unique

    course, through which we get chance to know about the implication of Corporate

    Finance.

    We would like to give special thanks to our honorable instructor Md. Enamul Haque for

    giving us the great chance to report on this kind of important topic. And he has helped us

    from time to time on different issues regarding the case study & preparation of report.

    During the preparation of the report, we had some problem that had been erased out with

    his propound lecture and assistance. Without his cooperation and guideline this report

    would have been an incomplete one

    We would like to thanks the United International University for helping us all the time

    and in all the way. And we would like to convey our thanks to our one of the facultiesMoshtafa Monzur Hasan who has helped us a lot to solve this problem. And without his

    support, we will not be able to solve this case. We would like to convey our thanks to one

    of our faculties Jinea Akhter who has assisted us in every possible ways.

    We also appreciate the unity, spontaneous workability and successful team spirit of our

    fellow group members/friends. Without cooperation and support from each other, it

    would not be possible to prepare a resourceful report.

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    Table on Contents

    Serial no. Parts Page no.

    Executive summary VII

    1. INTRODUCTION 01

    1.1 Objective 01

    1.2 Scope 01

    1.3 Limitation 011.4 Methodology 01

    1.4.1 Types and Sources of Data 01

    1.4.2 Data Collection Plan 01

    1.4.3 Data Analysis Plan 01

    2 2. WHAT IS GLOBALWARMING?

    02

    2.1 History 02

    2.2 Global Warming andBangladesh at a Glance 03

    2.3What is Green House Effect

    05

    2.4 Causes of Rising CarbonDioxide

    05

    2.5

    Effects of Global Warming

    06

    2.6 Causes of Global Warming 09

    2.7 Impact of Global Warmingon Bangladesh

    12

    6

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    2.8 Effect of global warmingon soil and land resourcesin Bangladesh

    14

    2.9 Consequences of GlobalWarming

    15

    2.10 What we can do to reduceglobal warming

    16

    2.11Solutions and Technology

    17

    3.

    CONCLUSION ANDRECOMMEDATION

    19

    REFERENCE21

    7

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    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    University City Lounge is a lounge that is located in the college community ofClaremont, Pennsylvania, about 65 miles north of Pittsburgh. The case study is related tothe University City Lounge, which is operated by Richard James. In this case, it has beenseen that the owner of the lounge has two mutually exclusive projects, Conventional setand Video-projector. These two projects are having different initial investment anddifferent and different returns. We have shown various financial analyses for theselection of any one of them.

    The objective of this report is to know about the real scenario of financial condition, toknow how to implement different financial tools. For completion of this report, we haveused only secondary data. And there are some limitations in this report that is mainlybecause of the limitation of information. But we have tried to give our 100% effort toprepare this report.

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    9

    S e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e sS e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e s

    This section will focus on:

    Origin of the report

    Scope of the report

    Rationale of the study

    Objectives of the study

    Methodology of the study

    Limitation of the study

    Report

    Preliminaries

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    1.1: Origin of the report:

    This report has been undertaken as a part of course requirement of Cases in

    Financial Decision Making. Our course instructor Md. Enamul Haque has

    assigned us the case on University City Lounge) so as to gain some

    practical knowledge about Capital budgeting Decision. The study really

    provides us an opportunity to explore and confront the reality about issues

    relating to Capital Budgeting Decision.

    1.2: Scope of the study:

    The report intends to analyze the case of University City Lounge. The

    report is prepared with a view to provide a brief but complete idea

    about Capital Budgeting Decision. For the analysis of the case different

    tools of Finance have been applied. These are namely Net Present

    Value (NPV) approach, Probability analysis, Profitability Index, Standard

    deviation sensitivity analysis and simulation analysis.

    1.3: Rationale of the study:

    The case is a part of our term paper. We believe that such an intensive

    study will help us in many ways in the future. This will surely enhance

    our analytical ability. In the case analysis we apply various tools and

    techniques of finance. This present study enables us to gather

    knowledge Capital Budgeting Decision. The knowledge of the study will

    help, when we will work in our professional career as a financialanalyst. So, we thanked to our course teacher to arrange this study.

    1.4: Objectives of the study:

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    The primary objective of this case report is to analyze the criticalissues and pros and cons of University City Lounge. The objectives canbe more specifically stated as:

    To get an idea about the Capital Budgeting Decision

    To enable to apply the concepts in financial decision making. To know how to link various complex situation.

    To increase our analytical ability.

    Apart from this, the case study also has following objectives:

    Identification of the problem or problems

    Identification of the alternative courses of action

    Critical Analysis; both qualitative and quantitative

    Provide Recommendation

    1.5: Methodology:

    This case report is an analytical report in nature.

    Data Collection: The organization part of the report is mainlybased on the secondary data provided in the case.

    Assumptions: As there was no scope for acquiring data fromoutside sources, some realistic assumptions have beenconsidered for missing information.

    Data Analysis:We have analyzed the data from the perspectiveof

    Qualitative Judgments: In the qualitative analysis, we

    provide theoretical aspect of Budgeting Decision. Weconduct economy analysis, Industry analysis, and Companyanalysis. In company analysis we put emphasis on SWOTanalysis. Apart from this we also analyze financial historyof the company, business risk, and financial risk.

    Quantitative Appraisal: The data was analyzed withsimple financial tools like Net Present Value (NPV)approach, profitability index. In quantitative analysis, wedeal with the problem of the case and analyze somefocusing point of the case.

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    Language:Abstract terminology and technical terms have beenavoided as much as possible so that any person can understandthe theme of the case report.

    1.6: Limitations of the study:

    The limitations of the study are defined by the extensive of the factscovered by the study and those that left out. However, theselimitations can be presented in the following lines:

    The first limitation is the lack of intellectual thought and analytical

    ability to make it the most perfect one.

    The analysis is based on some limited data, so it has become

    difficult to draw a complete figure.

    Lacking of detailed information on many aspects.

    Use of case based data only is another limitation of the study.

    We lack the advanced statistical, mathematical and analytical skills

    for the complex analysis of the report.

    We had to complete the analysis within a very short span of time,

    which restricted our analysis.

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    S e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e sS e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e s

    This section will focus on:

    Capital Budgeting

    Different investment decisions:

    Techniques of capital budgeting and their acceptance criteria

    Different situation analysis

    Conceptualframework

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    S e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e sS e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e s

    This section will focus on:

    Overview of University City Lounge

    Formation of University City Lounge

    Investment Strategy of University City Lounge

    Problem Statement

    Alternative courses of actions

    Introduction

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    Introduction:

    Capital budgeting is one of the most important tasks faced by financial managers. A

    firms capital budgeting decisions define its strategic direction, because moves into new

    products, services, or markets must be preceded by capital expenditures. Capital

    budgeting is very obviously a vital activity in business. The results of capital budgeting

    decisions continue for many years. Vast sums of money can be easily wasted if the

    investment turns out to be wrong or uneconomic.

    In the case University City Lounge, we have applied various tools of capital budgetingto determine whether the owner of University City Lounge invest in the Conventionalset or in the Video projector.

    3.1: University City Lounge: A close Overview

    University City Lounge a small corporation in the college community of Claremont,

    Pennsylvania. It is primarily a university-oriented city. University City Lounge (UCL)operate by Richard James founded five years ago in down town section of the city.

    University City Lounge (UCL) growth opportunity is 10 percent each year. James owns

    all the stocks of UCL. The firm has no outstanding debt. University City Lounge (UCL)

    mainly appealing to students in general and young adults. The room of the business

    contains ten tables that seat four persons each and five large booths capacity is six

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    persons each. Also there is a separate game room. There are five tables that seats 20

    customers. The third area within UCL is situated to the right of the central drinking

    space. Also there is a bar house in the T.V. lounge and right now UCL T.V. is not

    working. So this time James going for two mutually exclusive investment project. (1) A

    conventional color set with a 25-inch screen or (2) a product called video-projector,

    which is offers a 24-square-foot (6 feet high by 4 feet wide). James tax matters handle by

    Danial Ruggins. He and James began to develop the data necessary for making an

    effective choice between the two televisions. First project costs $700 fixed and other

    inventory costs is $200. Second project $3800 including set-up costs. James would add 6

    tables at a unit cost of $30 and 24 chairs at unit costs of $10 and additional assets costs is

    $300. The assets of UCL were always depreciated using the straight-line method. They

    estimated UCL will get 218 customers daily and their seating factor is 1.5 times. James

    operates UCL on all 365 days of the year. Last year, UCL earned $24,371 after taxes,

    sales were $358,000, Cost of goods sold was $187,592 and last year their tax was 29.1

    percent. Now current tax rate is 34 percent. UCL is expecting adding one extra customer

    in their lounge which increased their annual sales $1643. UCL is thinking two different

    types of probability in terms of their project. James and Ruggins are now considering one

    of the projects from two.

    3.4: Investment Strategy:

    The owner of University City Lounge has decided that they are having two mutually

    exclusive projects. First one is the conventional set and second one is the video projector.

    3.6: Alternative courses of actions:

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    We can determine whether the investment should made in Conventional set or in

    Video projector by using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The quantitative

    approaches include:

    Net Present Value (NPV) approaches

    Profitability Index

    Probability distribution

    Standard deviation

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    S e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e sS e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e s

    This section will focus on:

    Revenues and Expenses

    Initial results and investment considerations

    Current Investmentopportunity: University City

    Lounge

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    4.1: University City Lounge: Base Case Analysis

    University City Lounge has two options for investment, Conventional set or videoprojector. The initial cost for Conventional set is $(700+200) = $900 and the initial costfor Video projector is ($3800+6*30+24*10+300) = $ 4520. the return is different forthe two projects.

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    S e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e sS e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e s

    For complete, rational and prudent study, we divide the analysis into twobroad classes:

    Analytical Part

    Analysis

    Qualitative Analysis Quantitative Analysis

    Economy Analysis

    Industry Analysis

    Company Analysis

    Risk Analysis

    Capital Budgeting

    Probability distribution

    Risk Analysis

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    Economy Analysis:

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    S e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e sS e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e s

    This section will focus on:

    Economy Analysis

    Industry Analysis

    Company Analysis

    Qualitative Analysis

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    The city has never faced depression.

    The city has diversified and sound industrial base.

    Other restaurant has the capability to buy a high priced videoprojector.

    5.3: Company Analysis:

    SWOT Analysis

    Strengths

    High Sales volume:

    High growth rate

    Location

    Environment

    Sales in last year was proximate $24371

    The growth of the net profit is 10%

    Located in a sound industrial based area.

    The lounge is having three separate environments,dining area, game room and lounge.

    Weaknesses

    Distance from city

    Sole proprietorship

    Its located about 65 miles north of Pittsburgh

    One owner

    Opportunities

    Economical situation

    Good personal

    relationship

    The city gas never faced depression.

    The owner has a good personal relationship with

    several local bankers.

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    Threats

    Increased tax amount

    Uncertainties:

    The tax rate was 29%, but now its go to be 34%

    There is an uncertainty that whether the video

    projector or the conventional set will be profitable.

    6.1: Risk analysis:

    As it is mentioned, Gas industry is highly risky investment arena. In the Bailey prospectthere are many uncertainties. The uncertainties include:

    Uncertainty about cost of initial investment. Uncertainty about customers preference

    Uncertainty about sales amount.

    Uncertainty about demand of Lounge.

    Due to the existence of the above uncertainties, it can be said that University City Loungeis going to invest in a risky projects.

    In our analysis throughout the report we have considered different scenarios. Thisincludes:

    For Conventional set, the optimistic situation hasbeen determined.

    For conventional set, the demand has been decidedbased on probability distribution

    For Video projector, the seating-factor has beenconsidered.

    For video projector, the probability distribution hadbeen used.

    All the situations have been determined by using various discounting rates, because thediscounting rate is not certain here.

    Risk Analysis- Base case:

    After Tax cash flow:

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    s

    6.2: Analysis of Bailey Prospect:

    For the accept / reject decision we have used following techniques:

    Net present value (NPV)

    Internal rate of Return (IRR)

    Modified IRR

    Payback period method

    Profitability Index

    Apart from this we have used:

    Sensitivity analysis

    Scenario analysis

    Simulation analysis

    6.2.: Capital budgeting technique: Analysis of BaileyProspect:

    The capital budgeting techniques are shown in the appendix.

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    24

    S e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e sS e g m e n t O b j e c t i v e s

    This section will focus on:

    Financing the project

    Hamada equation

    Optimum capital structure

    Analysis of bailey prospect

    Project Financing

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    7.1: Financing the project:

    To raise fund for business expansion or for other purposes the company can issue equity

    or debt to private or public market or it can take term loan from any financial institution.

    But it is important to determine the best source of fund for the company. This depends on

    many variables like economic condition, interest rates, companys financial condition,

    industrys condition, and many other potential macro economic factors.

    Debt has some advantages. Interest on debt is tax deductible and it lowers the effective

    cost of debt. However, debt has negative sides as well. The higher the proportion of debt,

    the more risky the firm is. Due to high riskyness the debt holder and equity holder

    demand for additional risk premium. This increases the cost of firm. Again if the firm

    fails to pay fixed payment on debt, it may results in the bankruptcy of the firm. So, it is

    vital for the firm to set the optimal combination of debt and equity.

    In this case, we have assumed that the firm will either use its own capital money, or itwill use 50% debt and 50% equity.

    Calculation of risk free rate and required rate of return:

    in the case, the after tax risk-free rate is 5%it has been assumed that the cost of debt is 10% and the required rate of capital is 12%,we have assumed that the risk-premium is 7% when the risk is comparatively lower andthe risk premium is 10% when the risk is comparatively higher.

    Required rate of return calculation:

    According to Capital Asset Pricing Model:

    r= RF+ (RM-RF)

    Here, risk-free rate=5%

    =1 (Considering average capital market)

    Risk premium is 7%

    r = 0.05+ 1*0.07

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    =12%

    Comparative qualitative analysis of Conventional set and Video projector.

    Conventional set is colorful and 25 inch.

    Video projector is 24 square feet and having clear image.

    Video projector is more costly than that of the conventional set.

    There is possibility that the conventional set can be bought by other lounges.

    Main part:

    Considering 12% required rate of return, and 34% tax-rate, NPV of Conventional-

    set:(when the situation is optimistic)

    Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5out flow 700 0 0 0 0

    out flow 200 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 2.142 2.142 2.142 2.142 2.142

    After tax income (for 1 day) 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372

    After tax income (for 1 year) 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078

    Depreciation 140 140 140 140 140

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    Depreciation tax shield 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6

    For 5 years the inflow is 47.6*A 5%,5years+516.0078*A12%,5years

    2066.18912

    For 5 years the outflow is 900

    NPV of the project is 1166.18912

    profitability index 2.29576569

    Required rate of return calculation:

    According to Capital Asset Pricing Model:

    r= RF+ (RM-RF)

    Here, risk-free rate=5%

    =1 (Considering average capital market)

    Risk premium is 10%

    r = 0.05+ 1*0.10

    =15%

    r wacc = S/B+S (rs) + B/B+S (rb) (1-T)

    = * 0.12+ * 0.10 (1-0.34)=9.3%

    The risk of the Lounge may increase, that time the required rate of return may increase.So considering higher risk, we have assumed that the required rate of return is 15%

    year-1 Year-2 year-3 year-4 year-5

    out flow 700 0 0 0 0

    out flow 200 0 0 0 0before tax income 2.142 2.142 2.142 2.142 2.142After tax income (for 1day) 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372

    After tax income (for 1year) 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078

    Depreciation 140 140 140 140 140

    Depreciation tax shield 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6

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    For 5 years the inflow is 47.6*A 5%,5years+516.0078*A15%,5years

    1935.821

    For 5 years the outflow is 900

    NPV of the project is 1035.821

    profitability index 2.150912222

    Considering 9.3% required rate of return:

    year-1 year-2 year-3 year-4 year-5out flow 700 0 0 0 0

    out flow 200 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 2.142 2.142 2.142 2.142 2.142

    After tax income (for 1 day) 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372

    After tax income (for 1 year) 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078

    Depreciation 140 140 140 140 140

    Depreciation tax shield 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6

    For 5 years the inflow is 47.6*A 5%, 5years+516.0078*A9.3%, 5years

    2197.64726

    For 5 years the outflow is 900

    NPV of the project is 1297.64726

    profitability index 2.441830294

    Considering 5% required rate of return: (Considering only risk-free rate)

    Conventional

    year-1 Year-2 year-3 year-4 year-5

    out flow 700 0 0 0 0

    out flow 200 0 0 0 0

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    before tax income 2.142 2.142 2.142 2.142 2.142After tax income (for 1day) 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372 1.41372

    After tax income (for 1year) 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078 516.0078

    Depreciation 140 140 140 140 140Depreciation tax shield 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6

    For 5 years the inflow is 47.6*A 5%, 5years+516.0078*A5%, 5years

    2440.126822

    For 5 years the outflow is 900

    NPV of the project is 1540.126822

    profitability index 2.711252024

    Standard deviation:

    Mean= (2066.189117+ 1935.821+ 2197.647265+ 2440.126822)/4=2159.946051

    = 215.2092

    Cumulativeprobability

    Profitabilityindex

    Profitability index based on probabilitydistribution

    0.1 2.295765686 0.229576569

    0.2 2.295765686 0.459153137

    0.3 2.295765686 0.688729706

    0.4 2.295765686 0.9183062740.5 2.295765686 1.147882843

    0.6 2.295765686 1.377459412

    0.7 2.295765686 1.60703598

    0.8 2.295765686 1.836612549

    0.9 2.295765686 2.066189117

    0.95 2.295765686 2.180977402

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    0.1 2.150912222 0.215091222

    0.2 2.150912222 0.430182444

    0.3 2.150912222 0.645273667

    0.4 2.150912222 0.8603648890.5 2.150912222 1.075456111

    0.6 2.150912222 1.290547333

    0.7 2.150912222 1.505638555

    0.8 2.150912222 1.720729778

    0.9 2.150912222 1.935821

    0.95 2.150912222 2.043366611

    0.1 2.441830294 0.244183029

    0.2 2.441830294 0.488366059

    0.3 2.441830294 0.732549088

    0.4 2.441830294 0.9767321180.5 2.441830294 1.220915147

    0.6 2.441830294 1.465098176

    0.7 2.441830294 1.709281206

    0.8 2.441830294 1.953464235

    0.9 2.441830294 2.197647265

    0.95 2.441830294 2.319738779

    0.1 2.711252024 0.271125202

    0.2 2.711252024 0.542250405

    0.3 2.711252024 0.813375607

    0.4 2.711252024 1.08450081

    0.5 2.711252024 1.355626012

    0.6 2.711252024 1.626751214

    0.7 2.711252024 1.897876417

    0.8 2.711252024 2.169001619

    0.9 2.711252024 2.440126822

    0.95 2.711252024 2.575689423

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    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    Series1Series2

    Series3

    Series4

    Pessimistic situation

    Considering 15% required rate of return:

    out flow 700 0 0 0 0

    out flow 200 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 0.700434 0.700434 0.700434 0.700434 0.700434After tax income (for 1day) 0.46228644 0.462286 0.462286 0.462286 0.462286

    After tax income (for 1year) 168.7345506 168.7346 168.7346 168.7346 168.7346

    Depreciation 140 140 140 140 140

    Depreciation tax shield 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6

    For 5 years the inflow is 47.6*A 5%,5years+168.7345506A12%,5years

    771.7074735

    For 5 years the outflow is 900

    NPV of the project is -128.2925265

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    profitability index 0.857452748

    Considering 12% required rate of return:

    out flow 700 0 0 0

    out flow 200 0 0 0

    before tax income 0.700434 0.700434 0.700434 0.700434After tax income (for 1day) 0.46228644 0.462286 0.462286 0.462286

    After tax income (for 1year) 168.7345506 168.7346 168.7346 168.7346

    Depreciation 140 140 140 140

    Depreciation tax shield 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6

    For 5 years the inflow is 47.6*A 5%,5years+168.7345506A12%,5years

    814.333382

    For 5 years the outflow is 900

    NPV of the project is -85.666618

    profitability index 0.904814869

    Considering 9.3% required rate of return:

    Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-4

    out flow 700 0 0 0 0

    out flow 200 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 0.700434 0.700434 0.700434 0.700434 0.700434After tax income (for 1day) 0.46228644 0.462286 0.462286 0.462286 0.462286

    After tax income (for 1year) 168.7345506 168.7346 168.7346 168.7346 168.7346

    Depreciation 140 140 140 140 140

    Depreciation tax shield 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6

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    For 5 years the inflow is 47.6*A 5%,5years+168.7345506A9.3%,5years

    862.4016474

    For 5 years the outflow is 900

    NPV of the project is -37.5983526

    profitability index 0.958224053

    Considering 5% required rate of return:

    out flow 700 0 0 0 0

    out flow 200 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 0.70043 0.700434 0.700434 0.700434 0.700434

    After tax income (for 1day) 0.46229 0.46228644 0.46228644 0.462286 0.462286After tax income (for 1year) 168.735 168.7345506 168.7345506 168.7346 168.7346

    Depreciation 140 140 140 140 140

    Depreciation tax shield 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6

    For 5 years the inflow is 47.6*A 5%,5years+168.7345506A12%,5years

    936.615

    For 5 years the outflow is 900

    NPV of the project is 36.6154

    profitability index 1.04068

    Standard deviation:Mean= 846.2645

    Standard deviation=70.71548

    Pessimistic

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    cumulativeprobability profitability index out come

    0.1 0.857452748 0.085745275

    0.2 0.857452748 0.17149055

    0.3 0.857452748 0.257235824

    0.4 0.857452748 0.3429810990.5 0.857452748 0.428726374

    0.6 0.857452748 0.514471649

    0.7 0.857452748 0.600216924

    0.8 0.857452748 0.685962198

    0.9 0.857452748 0.771707473

    0.95 0.857452748 0.814580111

    cumulativeprobability profitability index Out come

    0.1 0.904814869 0.090481487

    0.2 0.904814869 0.180962974

    0.3 0.904814869 0.271444461

    0.4 0.904814869 0.361925948

    0.5 0.904814869 0.452407435

    0.6 0.904814869 0.542888921

    0.7 0.904814869 0.633370408

    0.8 0.904814869 0.723851895

    0.9 0.904814869 0.814333382

    0.95 0.904814869 0.859574126

    cumulativeprobability profitability index Out come

    0.1 0.958224053 0.095822405

    0.2 0.958224053 0.191644811

    0.3 0.958224053 0.287467216

    0.4 0.958224053 0.383289621

    0.5 0.958224053 0.479112027

    0.6 0.958224053 0.574934432

    0.7 0.958224053 0.670756837

    0.8 0.958224053 0.766579242

    0.9 0.958224053 0.862401648

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    0.95 0.958224053 0.91031285

    cumulative

    probability profitability index Out come0.1 1.04068 0.104068

    0.2 1.04068 0.208136

    0.3 1.04068 0.312204

    0.4 1.04068 0.416272

    0.5 1.04068 0.52034

    0.6 1.04068 0.624408

    0.7 1.04068 0.728476

    0.8 1.04068 0.832544

    0.9 1.04068 0.936612

    0.95 1.04068 0.988646

    0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1

    1.2

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    Series1

    Series2

    Series3

    Series4

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    Video-projector:

    Considering 15% required rate of return:

    Videoprojector

    year-1 Year-2 year-3 year-4 year-5

    out flow 3800 0 0 0 0

    Outflow 300

    Out flow 180

    out flow 240 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 3.0536352 3.053635 2.678999 2.678999 2.678999

    After tax income (for 1 day) 2.015399232 2.015399 1.76814 1.76814 1.76814

    After tax income (for 1 year) 735.6207197 735.6207 645.371 645.371 645.371

    Depreciation 844 844 844 844 844

    Depreciation tax shield 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96

    For 5 years the inflow is $3,552.65

    For 5 years the outflow is 4520

    NPV of the project is ($967.35)

    Profitability index $0.79

    Considering 12% required rate of return:

    Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5

    out flow 3800 0 0 0 0

    Outflow 300

    Out flow 180out flow 240 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 3.0536352 3.053635 2.678999 2.678999 2.678999After tax income (for 1day) 2.015399232 2.015399 1.76814 1.76814 1.76814

    After tax income (for 1year) 735.6207197 735.6207 645.371 645.371 645.371

    Depreciation 844 844 844 844 844

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    Depreciation tax shield 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96

    For 5 years the inflow is 3721.331278

    For 5 years the outflow is 4520

    NPV of the project is -798.668722

    Profitability Index 0.82330338

    Considering 9.3% required rate of return:

    Videoprojector

    year-1 Year-2 year-3 year-4 year-5

    out flow 3800 0 0 0 0

    Outflow s

    Out flow 180

    out flow 240 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 3.0536352 3.053635 2.678999 2.678999 2.678999After tax income (for 1day) 2.015399232 2.015399 1.76814 1.76814 1.76814

    After tax income (for 1

    year) 735.6207197 735.6207 645.371 645.371 645.371

    Depreciation 844 844 844 844 844

    Depreciation tax shield 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96

    For 5 years the inflow is 3893.203861

    For 5 years the outflow is 4520

    NPV of the project is -626.796139

    Profitability index 0.861328288

    Considering 5% required rate of return:

    Videoprojector

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    year-1 Year-2 year-3 year-4 year-5

    out flow 3800 0 0 0 0

    Outflow 300

    Out flow 180

    out flow 240 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 3.0536352 3.0536352 2.6789994 2.6789994 2.6789994

    After tax income (for 1day) 2.015399232 2.015399232 1.768139604 1.768139604 1.768139604

    After tax income (for 1year) 735.6207197 735.6207197 645.3709555 645.3709555 645.3709555

    Depreciation 844 844 844 844 844

    Depreciation tax shield 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96

    For 5 years the inflow is $4,204.32

    For 5 years the outflow is 4520

    NPV of the project is ($315.68)

    Profitability index $0.93

    Mean:

    $3,842.88

    Standard deviation 278.19592

    Cumulative Probability Profitability index outcome

    0.1 0.79 0.079

    0.2 0.79 0.158

    0.3 0.79 0.237

    0.4 0.79 0.316

    0.5 0.79 0.395

    0.6 0.79 0.474

    0.7 0.79 0.553

    0.8 0.79 0.632

    0.9 0.79 0.711

    0.95 0.79 0.7505

    Cumulative Probability Profitability index outcome

    0.1 0.82330338 0.08233

    0.2 0.82330338 0.164661

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    0.3 0.82330338 0.246991

    0.4 0.82330338 0.329321

    0.5 0.82330338 0.411652

    0.6 0.82330338 0.493982

    0.7 0.82330338 0.576312

    0.8 0.82330338 0.6586430.9 0.82330338 0.740973

    0.95 0.82330338 0.782138

    Cumulative Probability Profitability index outcome

    0.1 0.861328288 0.086133

    0.2 0.861328288 0.172266

    0.3 0.861328288 0.258398

    0.4 0.861328288 0.344531

    0.5 0.861328288 0.4306640.6 0.861328288 0.516797

    0.7 0.861328288 0.60293

    0.8 0.861328288 0.689063

    0.9 0.861328288 0.775195

    0.95 0.861328288 0.818262

    Cumulative Probability Profitability index outcome

    0.1 0.93 0.093

    0.2 0.93 0.186

    0.3 0.93 0.279

    0.4 0.93 0.372

    0.5 0.93 0.465

    0.6 0.93 0.558

    0.7 0.93 0.651

    0.8 0.93 0.7440.9 0.93 0.837

    0.95 0.93 0.8835

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    0

    0.1

    0.2

    0.3

    0.4

    0.5

    0.6

    0.7

    0.8

    0.9

    1

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    Series1

    Series2

    Series3

    Series4

    Current seating factor:

    Considering 15% required rate of return:

    Year-1 year-2 year-3 year-4 year-5

    out flow 3800 0 0 0 0

    Outflow 300

    Out flow 180

    out flow 240 0 0 0 0before tax income 77.112 77.112 77.112 77.112 77.112After tax income (for 1day) 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392

    After tax income (for 1year) 18576.2808 18576.28 18576.28 18576.28 18576.28

    Depreciation 844 844 844 844 844

    Depreciation tax shield 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96

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    For 5 years the inflow is $63,512.96

    For 5 years the outflow is 4520

    NPV of the project is $58,992.96

    Profitability index $14.05

    Considering 12% required rate of return:

    out flow 3800 0 0 0 0

    Outflow 300

    Out flow 180out flow 240 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 77.112 77.112 77.112 77.112 77.112After tax income (for 1day) 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392

    Tax rateAfter tax income (for 1year) 18576.2808 18576.28 18576.28 18576.28 18576.28

    0.34

    Depreciation 844 844 844 844 844

    R=12% Depreciation tax shield 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96

    For 5 years the inflow is $68,205.72

    For 5 years the outflow is 4520

    NPV of the project is $63,685.72

    Profitability index $15.09

    Considering 9.3% required rate of return:

    Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5

    out flow 3800 0 0 0 0

    Outflow 300

    Out flow 180

    out flow 240 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 77.112 77.112 77.112 77.112 77.112After tax income (for 1day) 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392

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    Tax rateAfter tax income (for 1year) 18576.2808 18576.28 18576.28 18576.28 18576.28

    0.34

    Depreciation 844 844 844 844 844

    R=9.3% Depreciation tax shield 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96

    For 5 years the inflow is $72,938.69

    For 5 years the outflow is 4520

    NPV of the project is $68,418.69

    Profitability index $16.14

    Considering 5% required rate of return:

    year-1 year-2 year-3 year-4 year-5

    out flow 3800 0 0 0 0

    Outflow 300

    Out flow 180

    out flow 240 0 0 0 0

    before tax income 77.112 77.112 77.112 77.112 77.112After tax income (for 1day) 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392 50.89392

    After tax income (for 1

    year) 18576.2808 18576.28 18576.28 18576.28 18576.28

    Depreciation 844 844 844 844 844

    Depreciation tax shield 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96 286.96

    For 5 years the inflow is $81,667.96

    For 5 years the outflow is 4520

    NPV of the project is $77,147.96

    Profitability index $18.07

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    Mean

    $71,581.33

    Standard deviation 7747.59895

    Current seating factor

    Cumulative Probability Profitability index Outcome

    0.1 14.05 1.405

    0.2 14.05 2.81

    0.3 14.05 4.215

    0.4 14.05 5.62

    0.5 14.05 7.025

    0.6 14.05 8.43

    0.7 14.05 9.835

    0.8 14.05 11.24

    0.9 14.05 12.645

    0.95 14.05 13.3475

    Cumulative Probability Profitability index Outcome

    0.1 15.09 1.509

    0.2 15.09 3.018

    0.3 15.09 4.527

    0.4 15.09 6.036

    0.5 15.09 7.545

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    0.6 15.09 9.054

    0.7 15.09 10.563

    0.8 15.09 12.072

    0.9 15.09 13.581

    0.95 15.09 14.3355

    Cumulative Probability Profitability index Outcome

    0.1 16.14 1.614

    0.2 16.14 3.228

    0.3 16.14 4.842

    0.4 16.14 6.456

    0.5 16.14 8.07

    0.6 16.14 9.684

    0.7 16.14 11.298

    0.8 16.14 12.912

    0.9 16.14 14.526

    0.95 16.14 15.333

    Cumulative Probability Profitability index Outcome

    0.1 18.07 1.807

    0.2 18.07 3.614

    0.3 18.07 5.421

    0.4 18.07 7.2280.5 18.07 9.035

    0.6 18.07 10.842

    0.7 18.07 12.649

    0.8 18.07 14.456

    0.9 18.07 16.263

    0.95 18.07 17.1665

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    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    20

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    Series1

    Series2

    Series3

    Series4

    Conclusion and recommendations