corporate finance - beny w2011
TRANSCRIPT
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rt
Law 635 Outline
I. Basic Finance Equations
a. PV
=
Ct
1r
t , where ris discount factor and C = dollars in year t
b. NPV = C0
T
Ct
1rt
C c. DCF =
t(For different cash flows Ct at each t)
t1 (1r)
Cd. PV of perpetuity =
r
e. PV of annuity =
1 1r r1r
t (t-year annuity factor) for fixed sum forspecified period
f. Annuity due: first payment made immediately; multiply PV of ordinaryannuity by (1 + r)
1rt1
g. FV of annuity =r
C1h. PV of growing
perpetuity = rg, where g is the growth rate
i. PV of T-period growingannuity =
1rg
1g
t
rg1r
t
j. Continuous compounding annuity: the new ris such that er= 1+[old rate]
1 1 1 i. PV C *
r r ert
mn
k. Compound Interest: FV
nP*
1m
, where m is number of compounds peryear
i. Limit as m gives you FVn = Pert
II. Bonds
a. Definitions
i. Bond:
1. Entitled to fixed set of cash payoffs; regular interestpayments (coupon)
2. At maturity, you get final interest payment + face value
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(par value) of the bond
ii. Ask Price: Amount needed to buy note
from dealer iii. Bid price: Amount needed
to sell note to dealer
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T
iv. Spread: Difference between bid and ask
v. Duration / Macaulay duration = weighted average of times whenbonds cash payments
are received
vi. Term structure of interest rates = relationship b/w short-
and long-term rates vii. Spot rate rn = n-year rate of interest
viii. Stripped bond / strips = bonds that make onecash payment
ix. Arbitrage = money
machine x. Ratings
(Moodys / S&P
1. High = AAA; AA
2. Medium = A; BBB
3. Low = BB; CCC; CC
4. Very Low (Junk) = C, D
b. PV of bond = (coupon * annuity factor) + (final payment *discount factor)
1i. = C*
1 ParValue
rr1rt
1rt
ii. Example: 4-year bond with $8.5 coupon; 3% discount rate; $100 facevalue
PV8.5* 1
1 100iii.
0.03
0.03
*1.034
(1.03)4
c. YTM = rate of return on the bond (IRR), backed out from PV calculation as a
function of price, coupon, and par value
d. Duration = t*PV(C
t)
, where final maturity date is at Tt1 PV
i. A weighted average time to each payment; shorter than thematurity date
duration
e. Modified duration =volatility = 1
yield
, a measure of interest-rate risk
i. A measure of how much the bond price changes given a 1% change inYTM
ii. Bond prices and interest rates move in
opposite directions f. Inflation, Nominal Cash Flows, Real
Cash Flows
Ct
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i. Real cash flow atdate t=
, where C = nominal cash flow(1CPI)
t
ii. Real rate ofreturn =
1i
1CPI
1, where i is nominal interest rate
iii. Real interest rate i CPI
iv. Average US inflation is about 3%
v. Fishers theory: Change in expected inflation rate causes same
proportionate change in n o m i n al interest rate; no effect on required
real interest rate
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1. 1 + i = (1 + r)(1 +CPIexpected)
g. Types of corporate bonds
i. Floating rate bonds (e.g. coupon payments tied to treasury rate + 2%)
ii. Convertible bonds (may exchange bond for shares of common stock)
h. How bond yields vary with maturity depends on
i. Real rate of interest (theoretically, this is flat)
ii. Expected future inflation (can be upward or downward sloping)
iii. Interest rate risk premium (increases with time)
i. Expectations theory of term structure: bonds priced so that investor who
holds succession of short bonds can expect same return as investor who
holds long-term bond
i. But it leaves out risk
j. Some comparative statics
Factor (as this goes Effect on Bond Price
Default probability Lower
Inflation risk Lower
Taxability of coupon Lower
Liquidity Higher
Yield to maturity / IRR Lower
Coupon rate Higher
III. Stocksa. Definitions
i. Primary market = Sales of shares to raise new capital
ii. Secondary market = stock exchanges like NYSE / NASDAQ
iii. Market order = to buy / sell stock at best available price
iv. Limit order = Price at which person is willing to
buy/sell stock v. Auction markets: NYSE; TSE; LSE;
Deutsche Borse
vi. Non-auction market: NASDAQ
vii. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs): portfolios of stocks to buy/sell in asingle trade
viii. Growth stocks bought primarily for capital gains; income stocks
primarily for dividends b. Valuation Techniques / Stock price determinants
i. Comparables: Look at market-to-book value ratio;
price-earnings ratio ii. PV(stock) = PV(dividends),
theoretically
1. Gains come from dividends and capital gains; that is, rDIV
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(P1P0 )
P0
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?1
2. Rearranging gives you
Equation (1): P0
DIV1
P1
1r
3. r= market capitalization rate or cost of equity capital,which is the rate of
return of stocks in the same risk class (assumed to all havesame return)
DIVP4. We know from (1) that P 2 2 ; we could plug thisinto (1) 1
5. Or, we can generalize
to P0
1r
DIV
1
1r
DIV2
1r2 ...
DIVH PH
1rH
H
DIV P6.
Rearranged, P
t H , where H is the horizon.
0
t1 1rt
1rH
Theoretically, though, the terminal price should approach zeroas H approaches
DIVinfinity,giving us
P0
t1
t
rt
iii. Dividend theory: growth companies (e.g. CSCO) that never pay
dividends now are just investing for later when there are fewer
profitable opportunities; those later dates will have higher dividends
(which accounts for the high valuation today)
c. Cost of Equity Capital
i. If we forecast a growth rate g for the companys expected dividends,we get:
P DIV
1 , so long as r> g0rg
ii. Rearranging, we get rDIV1 g
, whereP0
DIV1 is the dividend yieldP
0
iii. Example: Company has stock price of $42.45; dividend payments of$1.68 / share;
annual growth of 6.1%
1. r= (1.68 / 42.45) + (0.061) = 0.101 = 10.1%
iv. Since long-run growth rate is hard to come by, can also use payoutratio (Div / EPS)
DIV1. Plowback ratio = 1 payout ratio = 1
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EPS
2. EPS / book equity per share = return on equity = ROE
3. Dividend growth rate = g = plowback * ROE
d. DCF Valuation with Varying Growing Rates
i. Plowback ratio is based on old numbers; may represent
unsustainable growth ii. Instead, get the realistic growth
number gt at time t, and back out rfrom it
DIV DIV
1
DIV
P 1 2 ...
* t 0
1r (1r)2
(1r)
t rg t
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iii. You can use multiple-stage DCF models to do ramp-up years and
steady growth years using the model above
e. Price and EPS
i. Expected return of company that plows back nothing and only
produces dividends = like a perpetual bond; expected return istherefore dividend yield = EPS1 / P0
1. Therefore, P0 = EPS1 / r
ii. If earnings are reinvested (a stock thats purely a growth stock
rather than an income stock), and reinvestment has same risk as
present business, then share price should be unaffected
1. Reduction in value by 0 dividend should be offset by
increase in value in dividends in later years, so same
formula for P0
2. This is only true if the NPV of the new project is 0.
3. More
generally, P0
EPS
1 PVGO , where PVGO is the net
present valuer
of growth opportunities
a. Example: Stock with market capitalization rate of 15%;$5 dividend in
Y1 and 10% growth thereafter; ROE = 0.25.
i. Then, P0
DIV1
rg
$5
0.150.1
$100
b. Assume earnings per share is $8.33
i. Payout ratio is thenDIV1
EPS
1
$5
$8.33
0.6 , whichmeans
that the plowback ratiois 40%.
ii. The equation balances g = (plowback * ROE) =(0.4 * 0.25)
=0.1
c. If there were no growth opportunities, weshould find
P EPS1
$8.33
$55.56, but
instead, P
= $100.
0r 0.15
0
d. Since ROE = 0.25, the plowback NPV can be represented
as
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NPV1 (0.4)* ($8.33)
[(0.4)*($8.33)]* 0.25
$2.220.15
e. In Year 2, the plowback has a 10% growth rate, giving usabout $2.44:
NPV2 (0.4)*(8.33)* (1.1)
[(0.4)*(8.33)*
(1.1)]*0.25
0.15
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f. That is, NPVt= (1.1)(NPVt - 1), which gives us
PVGO NPV
1
rg
$2.2
2
0.150.1
$44.44 , which completesthe
f. Valuation throughDCF
equation:
P0
EPS
1 PVGO $55.56 $44.44 $100r
i. Free cash flow = amount of cash a firm can pay to investors
after paying for all investments necessary for growth
ii. Valuation: discount the free cash flows to horizon, and add the
discounted present value at time H
1. Estimating horizon value
a. Constant-growth DCF formula
i. Example: discount rate of 10%; long-run growthrate of 6%;
free cash flow of 1.59 at year 7
1 FCF ii. PV
H1 [CHECK THIS et seq.for
H(1r)
H
rg
off-by-one
error]b. P/E ratios
i. Example: Take an assumed P/E ratio, and plug itin
ii. PVH
1
(1r)
H
(ratio*earnings
H1 )
c. Market-Book ratios
i. Example: Take an assumed Market-Book ratio,and plug it
ii. PVH
1
(1r)
H
(MarketToBookRatio*AssetValue
H)
d. Growth Opportunities
i. Assume that, at some point H, PVGO is zero
earnings
g. Price/Earnings
R ii. PVH
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H1 r
i. Growth stocks: low current earnings,
high PVGO ii. Income stocks: high current
earnings, low PVGO iii. Rough guide to
PVGE
1. 0-10 = stock undervalued, or earnings expected to decline
2. 10-17 = P/E is at fair value
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3. 17-25 = overvalued or earnings fell relative to last report
4. 25 = very promising future or speculative bubble
IV. Alternatives to the NPV
a. Three things to remember about NPV
i. Dollar today worth more than a dollar tomorrow
ii. NPV depends on cash flow and opportunity cost of capital
1. Investors who look at book rate of return only dont get the
whole picture (depends whats treated as a capital
investment); companies may worry how book return is
affected by an investment
iii. NPV(A + B) = NPV(A) + NPV(B)
b. Competitors to the NPV
Rule i. ThePayback Rule
1. Definition
a. Payback period found by counting tit takes before
cumulative cash flow equals the initial investment
b. Payback rule = if payback period is less than some t,
then the project should be accepted.
2. Three Examples
Proje C0 C1 C2 C3 Payback NPV at
A (2,00 50 50 5,00 3 2,62
B (2,00 50 1,80 0 2 (58
C (2,00 1,80 50 0 2 50
a. If the cutoff above is 2 years, then only B and C get
investments even though B has a negative NPV
3. Problems with payback rule
a. Ignores cash flows after cutoff date
b. Equal weight to all cash flows before the cutoff date
4. Advantages with payback rule
a. Easy to communicate / justify
b. Short paybacks = quick profits = quick promotions
c. Limited access to capital favors rapid payback evenw/some NPV hit
5. Discounted Payback
a. Definition: How long does it last in order for NPV to bepositive?
b. In example above, DPP(A) = 3; DPP(B) = DNE; DPP(C) = 2
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c. Allows manager to reject non-NPV-positive projects
that make sense from a payback-only perspective
ii. Book Rate of Return / Accounting Rate of Return
1. Definition
a. Average income divided by average book value overproject life
BookIncomeb. Book Rate ofReturn =
2.
Problems
BookAssets
a. Not a good measure of true profitability; depends on
whats capex and whats opex
b. Average across all of the firms activities; thats not
usually the right hurdle for new investments
i. E.g. if opportunity cost of capital is 12% but
historic book return is 24%, implication is
reject a 20% rate of return investment
iii. IRR (Internal Rate of Return) / DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
1. Definition in single period is easy
a. IRR Payoff
1Investment
b. NPVC
0
C11r
0 , which can berewritten as r
C1 1C
0
2. Calculating the IRR
a. NPVC
0
C
1
1IRR
C
2
(1IRR)2
...C
T
(1IRR)
T
0,
which is solved through trial and error.
3. The Rule
a. IRR rule = accept a project if the opportunity cost of
capital is less than the internal rate of return
4. Problems
a. Lending or Borrowing?
i. Project A has C0 of (1,000), C1 of 1,500, IRR =
50%
ii. Project B has C0 of 1,000, C1 of (1,500), IRR =
50%
iii. These arent equally attractive; one is borrowing(which we
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want to do at a low IRR) and one is lending(want high)
b. Multiple Rates of Return
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c. CapitalRationing
i. Sometimes, you can solve for two different r
that satisfy the IRR equation. (There can be
infinitely many; depends on how many sign
changes there are in the cash flows). There are
also cases where no IRR exists.c. Mutually Exclusive Projects
i. A project may have higher IRR but lower NPV; if
theyre mutually exclusive (e.g. capital
constraints), you actually want the one with
better NPV.
ii. IRR also doesnt have the value additivityproperty (cf. NPV)
d. Multiple Opportunity Costs of Capital
i. Cost of capital varies over time
ii. Inappropriate when short- and long-term ratesdiverge
i. Basic Equation
1. ProfitabilityIndex =
NPV
Investm
ent
2. Pursue the projects that have the highest profitability index, butthere are capital
constraints; with a limited number of projects, its easy, but with
more, uselinear programming models
ii. Soft Rationing capital constraints are soft and are provisionallimits adopted by
management
iii. Hard Rationing implies market imperfections; examples are
shareholder vetoes, etc. d. How to apply NPV
i. Three rules
1. Only cash flow is relevant
2. Always estimate cash flows on an incremental basis3. Be consistent in your treatment of
inflation ii. Rule 1 (cash flow is king)
1. Always estimate cash flow on an after-tax basis
2. Make sure cash flows recorded only when
they occur iii. Rule 2 (cash flows on an incremental
basis)
1. Dont confuse average and incremental payoffs
a. Incremental NPV from investing in a loser may be
positive (chasing losses is OK); similarly, dont chase
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good money after good (a 20-year old race horse is not
a good investment)
2. Include all incidental effects
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?
V.
Risk
a. E.g. investing in a new regional air route may be NPV inisolation, but
+NPV when adding new business
b. E.g. New product may cannibalize own business, but
competitor products will eat away market share
anyway; invest and hope for good.
3. Forecast sales today and recognize after-sales cash flows tocome later
4. Dont forget working capital requirements
a. Definitions
i. Diversifiable risk risk that can be reduced
or eliminated ii. Nondiversifiable cannot be
eliminated
b. Order of risk (in descending order)
i. Small cap
stocks ii. Large
cap stocks iii.
Junk bonds
iv. Investment-grade
corporate bonds v. Municipal
bonds
vi. US T-bills /
bonds c. Measuring
risk
i. Variance / Standard Deviation
2 2 22ii. Portfolio variance for twoassets:
x1
1
x22 2(x1x21212 )
iii. Portfolio risk = systematic risk + unsystematic risk
1. Beta = sensitivity of stocks return to return on market portfolio(cannot be
eliminated throughdiversification)
ima. i 2
m
, with numerator = covariance with market
2. Portfolio Beta = weighted average of each stocks portfolio
3. Systematic risk is the market standard deviation
multiplied by beta d. Efficient Frontier / Market Porfolio borrowing
and lending at risk-free rate
rm
rf
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i. Slope of capital market line is the Sharpe Ratio, which ism
ii. Bottom line points:
1. Only invest in efficient portfolios that maximize return per unit ofrisk
2. Capital market line depicts tradeoff b/w risk and return fordiversified portfolios
3. Separation theorem: Its efficient just to invest in the marketportfolio, and
borrow / lend at the risk-free rate
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VI. CAPM
a. Expected return on an
asset = rf
b. Challenges to the model:
a (rmrf )
i. Can only test model against actual results, so not
testable ex ante ii. Estimating beta is difficult
iii. Can only use a proxy for the complete market portfolio, since not all
assets are publicly traded
iv. Testing CAPM is a joint test of both the validity of CAPM and efficiency
of asset pricing c. Assumptions underlying CAPM:
i. No transactions
costs ii. No taxes
iii. Homogenous expectations /valuations iv. Passive
investment
v. Ability to freely borrow / lend at
risk-free rate vi. Risk-free security
exists
vii. Investors only concerned about
systematic risk viii. Market efficiency
d. Arbitrage Pricing Theory
i. Identify a reasonably short list of macroeconomic factors expected to
affect stock returns ii. Estimate risk premium on each of these factors;
multiply by sensitivity of stock to each of
these factors
VII. Cost of Capital and WACC
a. Cost of capital = expected return on assets = rdebt * (debt / total firm
value) + requity * (eq/total firm value)
b. WACC = (1 Tc) * rD * (D / V) + rE * (E / V), where Tc is the marginal rate of
corporate taxVIII. Efficient Markets
Hypothesis a. Three
Forms:
i. Weak (price reflects historical price / trading information) (random walkhypothesis)
ii. Semi-strong: Market prices reflect all publicly
available information iii. Strong: Market prices reflect all
information, both public and private
1. Implication: even corporate insiders cannot earn
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abnormal returns b. Testing these hypotheses
i. Weak form: technical analysis doesnt provide greater returns than buy& hold, given
trading costs
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ii. Semi-strong: Observe stock price response to events like stock splits /
dividends announcements, etc. prices react within 5-10 minutes for
earnings and dividend changes (Patell & Wolfson)
iii. Strong: Whether mutual funds / pension funds consistently outperformthe market;
1. Jeng et al. corporate insiders buys have abnormal returns >6%/year
2. Ziobrowski Senators portfolios outperform market by 12%
c. Mechanisms (Gilson andKraakman):
i. Universally informed trading
ii. Professionally informed
trading iii. Derivatively
informed trading
1. Made permissible by direct / indirect info leakages2. Trade decoding
3. Price
decoding iv.
Uninformed trading
1. Soft information like forecasts /
predictions d. Information Costs
i. Acquisition
costs ii.
Processing Costs
iii. Verification
Costs
e. Anomalies
i. January effect: Returns tend to be higher in January than other
months (particularly small-cap stocks); seems to have
disappeared lately
ii. Returns tend to be lower on Monday
iii. Investors tend to underreact to surprise earnings
announcements iv. Stock market overreaction (e.g.
JPN stock market in the 1980s) v. New-issue puzzle:
IPOs tended to underperform
vi. S&P Effect: When added to S&P 500, price rises between 2-3%
vii. Stock market crash (1987): 23% devaluation of American corporatesector
1. But can be explained using Div / (r g) with big dropoff in g orbig increase in r
viii. Internet Bubble: Companies excess valued, but even savvy
analysts pushing f. Behavioral Finance Theory (Shleifer & Summers)
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i. Two types of traders: arbitrageurs;
noise traders ii. Noise traders =
responsive to pseudo-signals iii.
Investor biases:
1. Overconfidence
2. Over / underreaction to recent events
3. Trend chasing
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4. Excessive trading
5. Underdiversification
iv. Arbitrageurs are risk-averse and cant totally eliminate noise tradersnoise
1. Arbitrage has high transaction costs
2. Short-selling prevents convergence trading
3. Budget constraints
4. Risky to adopt contrarian position
v. Heterogeneous Expectations Asset Pricing Model (HEAPM)
1. CAPM assumes investors have homogenous expectationsvalue converges to
bestestimate
2. HEAPM assumes investors disagree on future risks / returns,
PLUS limits to arbitrage, making stock prices notfundamentally efficient
vi. Critiques
1. Anomalies shouldnt account for much money relative to size ofmarket
2. Many anomalies tend to be short-lived and disappear whendiscovered
3. Anomalies not easily translatable into profitable trading
strategies b/c of transactions costs
4. Unpredictable
IX. Corporate Finance
a. Terms
Tunneling = transfer of assets / profits out of firms for benefit of
ii. Preferred stock takes priority over common stock in regards to
iii. Floating-Rate Preferred Stock Pays dividends that vary with short
iv. Subordinate debt = repaid in bankruptcy only after senior debt
v.
vi.
Secured debt = first claim on specific collateral in event of default
Protective covenants = Restrictions on firm to protect bondholders
vii. Eurodollars = dollars held on deposit in bank outside the US
viii. Eurobond = Bond marketed internationally; may be denominated in
ix. Private placement = sale of securities to limited number of qualifiedinvestors without a
x. Convertible bond = bond that holder can exchange for some other
bond + call option)
xi. Warrant: Right to buy shares from company at stipulated pricebefore set date
xii. Book Value: backward looking; cf. Market value
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b. Relationship v. Arms Length Finance
i. Relationship finance: Financier has power over the firm being financed
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1. Physical asset-intensive businesses; older industries; lower
market-to-book ratios
ii. Arms length finance: Financier protected by explicit Ks /transparency
1. High-tech; intangible assets like IP; R&D; high
market-to-book iii. Various pros and cons (search Arms
Length Finance)
iv. Venture capital = hybrid (financing for start-ups; usually high tech)
1. Exit mechanisms:
a. Sale to another
company b. Start-up
buys itselfback
c. Block sale of VCs stake to another block investor
d. IPO
c. IPO terminology
i. Underwriter: Firm that buys an issue of securities; resells to public
1. Asymmetric info b/c of new issuer; underwriter reduces
verification costs ii. Prospectus: Formal summary, provides info like
risk factors / line of business
iii. Underpricing: Issue securities at offering price set below true
value of security iv. Rights Issue: Issue of securities offered only
to current stockholders
d. Dividendsi. Term
sCash Dividend = payment of cash by firm to sh/hs
2. Ex-dividend date: Determines date when stockholder is
3.
payment
Record date: Person who owns stock on this date receives
acquired after ex-dividend date
ii. Type
1. Regular Cash Dividend
2. Special Cash Dividend
3. Stock Dividend
4. Stock Repurchase
a. Buy shares on open
market b. Tender
offer to shareholders c.
Private negotiation
d. Dutch
auction iii. Dividend Policy
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1. Lintners Sylized Facts (from interviews with corporatemanagers)
a. Long-term target payoutratios
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b. Managers reluctant to make changes (esp. increases)
that might have to reverse
c. Transitory earnings changes unlikely to affect dividendpayouts
d. Repurchase, rather than issue dividends with large
amount of unwanted cash
2. Information effect: Investors react positively to dividend
increases; negatively to decreases
a. Signaling effect
b. Firm value change? Three theories
i. Dividend policy ir r ele v a n t (Miller-Modigliani)
1.
Assumptions:
a. No taxes, transaction costs,
market imps b. Fixed capital
budgeting plan
c. Fixed borrowing
d. Efficient capital markets
e. Financial deficit funded by retained
earnings; all extra cash paid out asdividends
2. Investors dont need dividends to
convert shares to cash
X. Capital Structure
a. Miller-
Modigliani
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a. Wont
pay
higher
prices
forfirms
with
more
divide
nd
payou
ts
b.
Divid
end policy = irrelevant; no impact
on firm value!
ii. Dividends increase firm value
1. Some investors prefer high dividends
to support current income
2. Managers that dont have high present
value growth opportunities have
incentives to spend cash wastefully
(Goodyear)
3. Easterbrook: Mitigate monitoring costs with
Easterbrook
iii. Dividends reduce firm value
1. Dividends w e r e taxed more heavily thancapital gains
2. No longer true after Bushs 2003 dividendtax cut
i. Proposition I capital structure doesnt matter
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1. Doesnt matter whether f ir m borrows or in d i v id u a l borrows
2. Claim: levered firm and unlevered firm have same value
3. Assumptions:
a. Perfect capital markets
i. Perfect competition in
capital market ii. Firms /
investors borrow at same rate
1. Brealey-Myers: This isnt
realistic iii. Equal access to all
relevant information
iv. No transaction costs;
no taxes b. No bankruptcy
costs
c. Capital structure doesnt affect investment / operatingpolicies /
managementincentives
d. WACC is fixed (rA = Operating Income / Value of
securities)
ii. Proposition II : Leverage raises requiredreturn on equity
1. Return on equity increases in proportion to the debt-equity
ratio; rate of increase depends on spread between expected
return on assets and on debt:
D2. r
E rA (rArD )E
3. Similarly, leverage increases beta of firms shares
D4. E A (AD )E
5. Critique (Brealey Myers)
a. At moderate levels of debt, shareholders dont
increase their required rate of return in exact
proportion to increase in leverage
b. Imperfections in the capital market give corporate debtan advantage
over personal debt; shareholders thus pay premium forlevered shares
Db. Tax-Adjusted WACC: WACC rD *(1T
C )*V
c. Why Debt Policy DOE S Matter
ErE *
V
i. Tax Advantage interest expenses deductible from corporate income
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1. All else equal, levered firm pays less in taxes than all-equityfirm
2. PV(tax shield) = TC * D, assuming permanent borrowing
a. This is equal to corporate tax rate * interest payment /
expected return on debt
b. For more, search PV of Tax Shield or Space Babies
3. Firm value = Value of All-Equity Firm + PV (Tax Shield)
4. M-M I with corporate taxes suggests: Optimal = 100% debt
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a. BUT company needs to have income
to shield b. Alternative means to shield
income from taxes
c. Need to consider offsetting costs of debt
5. New M-M I: VL = VU + TCD+ Costs ofFinancialDistress ii. Costs of Financial Distress
1. Direct costs
2. Indirect Costs
3. Agency Costs
a. When firm is levered, conflict b/w interests of
s t o c kh o ld er and bo n d h o ld er arise
b. Temptation to cash in and run, play for time,
bait and switch c. Undertake negative NPV
investments corporate waste)
4. Adjusted Present Value = Base Case NPV +
PV Impact iii. Trade-Off Theory
1. Capital structure is a tradeoff between tax savings anddistress costs of debt
2. Companies with intangible assets have higher costs of
distress; should have lower D/E ratios. Safe tangible asset
companies should have high D/E ratios
3. Consistent with industry differences in structure
4. BUT some highly profitable companies like MSFT/PFE haveminimal debt iv. Pecking-Order Theory
1. Premise = asymmetric information
2. Issuing equity signals managers belief that firm is
o v e r v alu ed the firms stock price will fall, so issue debt if
possible
3. Issue debt next; choose safest debt first
4. Conflicts with Trade-off Theory (Look up Tensions b/wTheories)
XI. Optionsa. Payoff Diagrams (x-axis is stock price; y-axis is payoff)
b. Buying a call:
c. Selling a call:
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d. Buying a put:
e. Selling a put
f. Protective Put (buy stock;
buy put) Downside protection,
w upside potential
g. Straddle (buy call,
buy put) Profit from
volatility
h. Downside Protection (buy call and have bank deposit paying the strike
price same payoff diagram as the protective put
i. Put-Call Parity: Value of call + PV of exercise price = Value of put + Share price
j. Option value determinants:
Factor (as this goes Effect on Call Price Effect on Put Price
Stock price (intrinsic + -
Exercise price (intrinsic) - +
Interest rate (speculative) + -
Volatility (speculative) + +
Expiration date + +
k. Intrinsic value = difference between exercise price and spot price ofunderlying asset
l. Speculative value = difference between option price and intrinsic value ofoption
XII. Executive Compensation
a. Goal = reduce Principal-Agent
problem b. Options
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compensation incentivizes, but:
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i. Too many options might make managers reckless
ii. Need to get the right mix of stocks / options / other forms of
compensation to get incentives correct
iii. Option compensation might run risk of
self-dealing c.Options Repricingi. Lower the strike price so options dont fall out
of the money ii. FASB said no, but firms found
backdoor means
d. Options Backdating
i. Manager designates grant date earlier than date board made
decision to grant options ii. Estimated cost = $500mm per sample
firm
e. Options Forward Dating
i. If stock price has been falling, manager designates
later grant date f. Option Reloading
i. Receive a new option for each received when you
exercise options ii. Exercise price of new options set to
new stock price
g. Bullet Dodging delay options grant until just
after bad news h. Spring loading time an
options grant to precede good news
i. Checks: SEC disclosure rules; substantive restrictions
XIII. Yields
a. An example: Bond has par of $1K, 5% coupon, 20% chance of bankruptcy(will only pay $500)
i. Expected CF = (1050 * 0.8) + (500 * 0.2) = $940
1. Value = $940 / 1.05 = $895
2. YTM = (1050 / 895) 1 =17.3%
b. Default Option:
i. Bond value = bond value assuming no default, less value of putoption on assets
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