coronary heart disease risk factors in canada: a microsimulation predictive model
DESCRIPTION
Doug Manuel, MD, MSc, William M. Flanagan, BM, Meltem Tuna, PhD, Anya Okhmatovskaia, PhD, Philippe Finès, PhD; Carol Bennett, MSc. Coronary heart disease risk factors in Canada: a Microsimulation predictive model. Simulated Technology for Applied Research (STAR). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Coronary heart disease risk factors in Canada: a Microsimulation predictive model
Doug Manuel, MD, MSc, William M. Flanagan, BM, Meltem Tuna, PhD, Anya Okhmatovskaia, PhD, Philippe Finès, PhD; Carol Bennett, MSc
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Simulated Technology for Applied Research (STAR)
Behnam Sharif, MSc, Jacek A. Kopec, MD, PhD, Hubert Wong, PhD, Aslam Anis , PhD, Eric C. Sayre, PhD, M. Mushfiqur Rahman, MSc, David Buckeridge, MD, PhD, Jillian Oderkirk, MSc, Michal Abrahamowicz, PhD, Sam Harper, PhD,Michael C. Wolfson, PhD
• A Canadian Institute for Health Research New Emerging Team including:
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Chronic Diseases
Major cause of death and disability worldwide.
Reason of more than 55 thousand deaths in Canada so far this year.
57% of those under 65 live with at least one chronic condition.
An additional chronic disease raises the risk of hospitalization by 44% among people under age 60.
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Risk Factors
Behavioural Smoking Physical Inactivity
Biophysical Obesity Elevated Cholesterol Blood Pressure
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POHEM: Population Health Model
ModGen(Developed in C++)
Interacting Agent models
Non-Interacting Agent models
Child Vaccination (CVMM)
HIVMM
LifePaths
PopSim
POHEM
Micro-simulation at Statistics Canada
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Characteristics of POHEM
case-by-case, longitudinal, continuous time, stochastic, Monte Carlo microsimulation
directly encompasses competing risks and comorbidity
longitudinal risk factor and disease sub-modules projects population forward in continuous time generates plausible health biographies over the
life course of synthetic individuals from empirical observations
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Process for projecting coronary heart disease risks in Canada, 2001 to 2020
Canadian population (2001)
Canadian Community Health Survey (2001)
Update yearly (2002 – 2009)
Update for births, deaths, immigration, emigration and change in CAD risks
Validate (2002 – 2009)
Compare births, deaths, immigration , emigration and prevalence of CAD.
Generate predictive estimates (2010 – 2020)
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Data sources
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Births and DeathsYearly Updates
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Immigration and Emigration Yearly Updates
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Socioeconomic Yearly Updates
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CAD Risks Yearly Updates
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Coronary heart disease risk factors, prevalence in 2001
Sex Million %Blood Pressure
Million %
Male 11.5 0.49 Optimal 15.7 0.66
Female 12 0.51 Normal 4.1 0.18
High-normal 2.3 0.1
Mean Median Hypertensive Stage I 1.3 0.05
Age 46.8 45 Hypertensive Stage II-IV 0.3 0.01
Smoking Million % Total Cholesterol Million %
Current 6.3 0.28 Low 4.4 0.19
Former 8.7 0.39 Low-Medium 8.5 0.37
Never 7.4 0.33 Medium 7.3 0.32
Medium-High 2.3 0.1
High 0.6 0.02
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Observed vs. Predicted
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
POHEM-Diabetes CCHS-Diabetes
POHEM-Smoking CCHS-Smoking
POHEM-BMI CCHS_BMI
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Multiple Risk Factors: Diabetes – Obesity - Smoking
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Predicted and observed risk factors, 2009 Canada
Projected Observed
Diabetes
Obesity
Smoking
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References
M.C. Wolfson , POHEM—a framework for understanding and modelling the health of human populations. Wld. Hlth. Statist. Quart. 47 (1994), pp. 157–176
Statistics Canada. Canadian Community Health Surveys, Cycles 1.1-4.1, 2009-2010.