corn producing sector in mexico alejandro nadal part 2
TRANSCRIPT
Declining support for agriculture
Withdrawal of support policies: public expenditures for agriculture drop to all-time historical low
Green Box subsidies could increase 200% today and remain within AMS authorized levels of URAA-WTO
In spite of all of this, Corn production increased and cultivated surface expanded.
“What happened?” asked World Bank and Mexico’s official experts?
Mexico: Total Corn Output (1980-2003)
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Met
ric
ton
s
Corn (grain) Cornfeed
Yields in Corn Production (1980-2003)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Tons
Tons/Cultivated surface Tons/Harvested surface
Land Surface in Mexico's Corn Sector (1980-2003)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Hec
tare
s
Cultivated surface Harvested surface
Explaining the dynamics of corn production in Mexico after NAFTA
• Producers prices did go down as a result of NAFTA• But corn output started to increase• Why?• General equilibrium versus partial equilibrium:
Need to consider the movement of the entire constellation of agricultural prices
• “El regreso al campo”: the return to the countryside by impoverished peasants that had previously migrated to urban centres
Tortilla prices increased by 50% in real terms
Explaining Corn Output in Mexico (1994-2003)
Real Tortilla Prices in Mexico1994-2003 (2002 pesos)
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: Banco de Mexico, Informacion Financiera y Economica, IPC
Explaining Corn Output in Mexico (1994-2003)
All agricultural prices fall. Open-pollinated corn varieties offer a safer option for poor producers.
Real Prices for Selected Crops (1980-2003)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Corn Rice Barley Beans Sorghum Soybeans Cotton
Discussion• Insecurity and adverse economic environment for
small scale producers– Adverse conditions: 293% inflation between 1994- 2003
• Why did output increase?• Not “in spite of” but precisely because of these
adverse conditions corn producers have expanded their operations (hence, “the return to the fields”)– All agricultural prices were falling: the relative price of
corn was stable or in fact increasing!– Corn is familiar technology– Staple food
Impacts on Production and Survival Strategies of Corn Producing Households
• Crop substitution• Changes in land use patterns• Reallocation of labor resources• Off-farm income-generating activities• Temporary or permanent migration
Migration and semi-proletarization degrade local institutions for resource management, as well as technological capabilities at the household level.
Impact on seed selection and recycling, and on the development of maize genetic resources.
Economic Forces and Maize Producers in Mexico
A. Rural exodus and semi-proletarization in response to pervasive poverty and economic pressure degrade local institutions and technical capabilities at the household level.
B. Labor-intensive processes (i.e., milpa multicropping and inter-planting systems) tend to be replaced by monoculture and higher herbicide usage rates. Crop biodiversity affected.
C. This impairs capacity to select and recycle seeds and degrades in situ conservation of maize genetic resources.
D. This may lead to a severe event of genetic erosion through poverty, migration and semi-proletarization.
E. Germplasm banks may not be a viable solution over the long haul. Passports of accessions not enough for comprehensive understanding of role of maize biodiversity (Taba, Ortega).