coral reefs and climate change - national oceanic and ... · coral reefs and climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
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Coral reefs and climate change
Elizabeth Selig and John Bruno
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Climate change and coral reefs
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Lecture outlineLecture outline• Basic coral biology and gy
terms• Climate change effects
on coral reefson coral reefs– Range shifts– Ocean circulation changes– Sea level rise
O idifi i– Ocean acidification– Ocean temperature increases
- bleaching- disease
• Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD)(CoRTAD)
Great Barrier Reef (Robert Ricker)
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Basic coral biology:h i l d f i l f lphysical needs for survival of corals
• LightLight • Low nutrient water• Fairly narrow temperature range (21°C - 30°C)Fairly narrow temperature range (21 C - 30 C)
Pohnpei, Micronesia (David Burdick)Pohnpei, Micronesia (David Burdick)
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coral colony colonial coral polypsmouth
(James P. McVey)(David Burdick)
single polyps(James P. McVey)
coral skeleton
Anatomy of coral polyp
(NOAA/NOS)
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Basic coral biology: l l l bi i
Coral tissue with zooxanthellae
coral-algal symbiosisB fit t l Coral tissue with zooxanthellaeBenefits to coral:1) productivity2) calcification)3) nutrient recycling4) provision of O2
Benefits to zooxanthellae:1) protection from predators2) l ti f i t2) regulation of environment3) nutrient recycling4) provision of CO2
(University of Wisconsin Plant Teaching Collection)(University of Wisconsin Plant Teaching Collection)) p 2
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Coral stress response:l bl hicoral bleaching
• What is it?What is it?– A stress response to
unfavorable environmental conditionsconditions
– Loss of algal pigments or zooxanthellae expulsion or both
• Causes:– Change in ocean temperature
( / )(+ / - )– Increase in visible light or UV
lightg– Decreased salinity– Synergism of many stressors
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Coral stress response:l bl hicoral bleaching
(Andy Bruckner)
Coral head bleaching (left) and recovery (right)
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Lecture outlineLecture outline• Basic coral biology and gy
terms• Climate change effects
on coral reefson coral reefs– Range shifts– Ocean circulation changes– Sea level rise
O idifi i– Ocean acidification– Ocean temperature increases
- bleaching- disease
• Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD)(CoRTAD)
Great Barrier Reef (Robert Ricker)
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Range shifts
(Image: Precht and Aronson, 2004) (Photo: John Bruno)
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Range shifts
Net gain in reef habitat area: very minor
Buddemeier et al, 2004
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Ocean circulation changes
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Ocean circulation changes
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Sea level rise
Remnants of a drowned reef below the photic zone on West Bank, Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, Gulf of Mexico(NURC/UNCW and NOAA/FGBNMS)
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Ocean acidification
CO22
CO2 (aq) + H2O ↔ H2CO3
CaCO3H2CO3 ↔ H+ + HCO3-
CaCO3
HCO3- ↔ H+ + CO3
2-
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Ocean acidification
CO22
CO2 (aq) + H2O ↔ H2CO3
CaCO3H2CO3 ↔ H+ + HCO3-
CaCO3
HCO3- ↔ H+ + CO3
2-
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Ocean acidification
Buddemeier et al, 2004
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Ocean acidification
Buddemeier et al, 2004
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Ocean acidification
Guinotte et al, 2003
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Ocean temperature increases
Thailand0.126 ° C increase/decade (P < 0.001)
Tahiti0.08 ° C increase/decade (P < 0.02)
Projected 1 2 ° C increase by 2030 2050
from Brown 1997
Projected 1-2 C increase by 2030-2050
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Ocean temperature increasesIncreases in Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature (Puerto Rico 1966-1995)
Severe bleaching events
0.7°C increase in 30 years
Winter et al. 1998
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Ocean temperature increases
Barton and Casey 2005
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Ocean temperature increases: metrics for disease and bleachingmetrics for disease and bleaching
Metric Question Potentialapplication
TSA Is the temperature warmer ( > 1°C) thantypical summertime highs? Bleaching
WSSTA Is the temperature warmer ( > 1°C) than usual for that week of the year? Disease
Other metrics: magnitude/intensity, regional metrics, different threshold values
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Ocean temperature increases: bleaching
El Niño events
bleaching
Hoegh-Guldberg 1999
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Ocean temperature increases: bleachingbleaching
Berkelmans et al 2004
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Ocean temperature increases: bleaching
1998 global bleaching reports:
bleaching
compiled by C. Wilkinson
Regions of the World
% reef destroyedpre 1998
% reef destroyedin 1998
% reef in critical
stage loss 2 10
% reef threatened loss 10-302-10 years 30 years
Arabian Region 2 33 6 7
Wider Indian Ocean 13 46 12 11
Australia, Papua New Guinea
1 3 3 6
Southeast & East 16 18 24 30Asia
Wider Pacific Ocean
4 5 9 14
Caribbean Atlantic 21 1 11 22
Status 2000 Global *
11 16 14 18
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Ocean temperature increases:Ad ti bl hi h th iAdaptive bleaching hypothesis
• Physiological response is related to host and symbiotic algae
• Symbionts have differential responses to stress
• Multiple types of symbionts and shosts are on reefs
• Frequent bleaching favors stress-resistant symbionts (which may be less competitive in a lower stress environment)in a lower stress environment)
Buddemeier and Fautin, 1993
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Ocean temperature increases:bl hibleaching
Possible adaptivePossible adaptive responses to increased ocean temperatures
• 0.2-1.0 °C per decade increased thermal
p
increased thermal tolerance?
• Shift to more tolerantShift to more tolerant species?
• Role of climateRole of climate variability?
Coral bleaching, Guam, Mariana Islands (David Burdick)
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Ocean temperature increases: metrics for disease and bleachingmetrics for disease and bleaching
Metric Question Potentialapplication
TSA Is the temperature warmer ( > 1°C) thantypical summertime highs? Bleaching
WSSTA Is the temperature warmer ( > 1°C) than usual for that week of the year? Disease
Other metrics: magnitude/intensity, regional metrics, different threshold values
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Ocean temperature increases:didisease
(John Bruno)
(NOAA/OE)
Clockwise: Black band, yellow band, aspergillosis, and white pox
(Andy Bruckner) (Andy Bruckner).
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White syndrome and increases in t tocean temperature
(NOAA/NMFS/PIFSC)
Bruno et al 2007
(A. Bruckner, 1996)
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Ocean temperature increases:bl hi d dibleaching and disease
• More frequent andMore frequent and severe bleaching
• More mass bleaching gevents
• More severe El Niño (David Burdick)
cycles• Increased disease
(David Burdick)
prevalence and severity
(David Burdick)
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Lecture outlineLecture outline• Basic coral biology and gy
terms• Climate change effects
on coral reefson coral reefs– Range shifts– Ocean circulation changes– Sea level rise
O idifi i– Ocean acidification– Ocean temperature increases
- bleaching- disease
• Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD)(CoRTAD)
Great Barrier Reef (Robert Ricker)
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Studying temperature patterns: Coral Reef Temperature AnomalyCoral Reef Temperature Anomaly
Database (CoRTAD)• 1985-near
present
30
present• 4km resolution
AVHRR sensor• AVHRR sensor (Pathfinder)
• global
http://pathfinder.nodc.noaa.gov
0
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Operational NESDIS 50 kmH M iHotspot Mapping
Latit
ude
LongitudeLongitude
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NOAA/NASA AVHRR P thfi d 9 kAVHRR Pathfinder 9 km
Latit
ude
LongitudeLongitude
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RSMAS/NODC AVHRR Pathfinder 4 kmAVHRR Pathfinder 4 km
Latit
ude
LongitudeLongitude
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Satellite versus In situ measurements(Data from GBRMPA; In situ loggers at 5 10m depth)
Lizard IslandTurner Cay
(Data from GBRMPA; In situ loggers at 5-10m depth)
Lizard IslandTurner Cay
30 P<0.00012
30ts (C
)
P<0.00012
26
28 R2 = 0.893
26
28
emen
t R2 = 0.958
24
26
24
26
easu
re
22
22 24 26 28 30
22
tu m
e
22 24 26 28 30 2 2 2 2 3
Pathfinder derived SST (C)In s
i 2 2 2 2 3
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Spatial analyses of anomaly frequencies
TSA frequency 1985-2005
WSSTA frequency 1985-2005
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Spatial analyses of anomaly lengths
Average TSA length
Average WSSTA length
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Climate change effects on coral reefs
• Habitat loss due to reef drowning, reduced f b ildi d i d t idifi tireef building and erosion due to acidification
and loss of marginal habitats• Species loss due to the loss of less
acclimated coral species or those susceptible to thermally driven disease outbreaks