copyright, dr. v covello, center for change/risk communication core slides dr. vincent t. covello...

Copyright, Dr. V Covello, Center for Change/Risk Communication

Core Slides

Dr. Vincent T. CovelloDirector

Center for Risk CommunicationNew York, New York

Email: [email protected] [email protected]

Core Slides

Dr. Vincent T. CovelloDirector

Center for Risk CommunicationNew York, New York

Email: [email protected] [email protected]


DefinitionsDefinitions

Risks: Definition

“Threats to that which we value.”

Risk Communication: Definition

“The exchange of information about risks.”

Risks: Definition

“Threats to that which we value.”

Risk Communication: Definition

“The exchange of information about risks.”


Risk Communication GoalsRisk Communication Goals

• enhance knowledge and understanding

• build trust and credibility

• encourage appropriate behaviors and levels of concern

• enhance knowledge and understanding

• build trust and credibility

• encourage appropriate behaviors and levels of concern

Risk Communication:Media Goals (CDC)

Risk Communication:Media Goals (CDC)

• Be first, be right, be credible

• Inform, not inflame

• Address rumors, inaccuracies, and misperceptions quickly

• Be first, be right, be credible

• Inform, not inflame

• Address rumors, inaccuracies, and misperceptions quickly


Risk Communication Hypotheses

“Most of the concerns and questions of upset people can be predicted in advance.”

“When people are stressed and upset, they typically want to know that you care before they care what you know.”

“When people are stressed or upset, they often have difficulty hearing, understanding, and remembering information.”







=========Rule of 3

“When people are stress or upset, they typically can only process 3 messages at a time.”


=========Rule of 3



Stakeholder Predictability

“50 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Terminally Ill Patients”


“50 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Terminally Ill Patients”



• “50 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Terminally Ill Patients”

• “77 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Journalists in a Disaster”








• “65 Most Frequently Asked Questions about Bird Flu and Pandemic Influenza” (pandemicflu.gov)




• “65 Most Frequently Asked Questions about Bird Flu and Pandemic Influenza” (pandemicflu.gov)


ExerciseExercise


“77 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Journalists and

the Public in a Disaster”

“77 Most Frequently Asked Questions by Journalists and

the Public in a Disaster”

Types of Questions:

• Factual Questions• Emotionally Charged Questions• Challenge, Trap, and Pitfall

Questions

Types of Questions:

• Factual Questions• Emotionally Charged Questions• Challenge, Trap, and Pitfall

Questions


Types of Questions Types of Questions

• Factual Questions

• Emotionally Charged Questions

• Challenge, Trap, and Pitfall Questions

• Factual Questions

• Emotionally Charged Questions

• Challenge, Trap, and Pitfall Questions


Challenges/Traps/PitfallsChallenges/Traps/Pitfalls

• False Negative Questions• Guarantee Questions• What If (Worst Case Scenario)

Questions

• False Negative Questions• Guarantee Questions• What If (Worst Case Scenario)

Questions


Challenge Questions: Do’s and Don’ts

Challenge Questions: Do’s and Don’ts

Don’t repeat a false negative

Do repeat the opposite of the false negative

Don’t repeat a false negative

Do repeat the opposite of the false negative


• Risk communication is a science-based discipline

• High stress situations change the rules of communication

• The key to risk communication success is anticipation, preparation, and practice




Risk Communication:

Key Messages

Risk Communication:

Key Messages


• 8000 Articles in Peer Reviewed Scientific Journals

• 2000 Books• Reviews of the Literature by Major

Scientific Organizations (e.g., National Academy of Sciences)




Risk Communication LiteratureRisk Communication Literature


Risk Communication Literature: Research Based Resources

Risk Communication Literature: Research Based Resources

Dr. R. Hyer and Dr. V. Covello

Effective Media Communication During Public Health Emergencies:

A World Health Organization Handbook

World Health Organization, United Nations: Geneva, April 2007

(www.who.int/bookorders)

Dr. R. Hyer and Dr. V. Covello

Effective Media Communication During Public Health Emergencies:

A World Health Organization Handbook

World Health Organization, United Nations: Geneva, April 2007

(www.who.int/bookorders)


ResourcesResources

Effective Media Communication During Public Health Emergencies

• A Comprehensive Bibliography of Peer

Reviewed Articles• Over 1000 Do’s and Don’ts (With

Explanations)• A Section on Message Mapping




Explanations)• A Section on Message Mapping


ResourcesResources




Explanations)• A Section on Message Mapping and

Message Mapping Templates




Explanations)• A Section on Message Mapping and

Message Mapping Templates


Message Map Stakeholder Question or Concern:

Key Message9 words on average



Support-ing Info.

1.1

Support-ing Info.

1.3

Support-ing Info..

1.2

Support-ing

Info. 2.1

Support-ing Info.

2.2

Support-ing Info.

2.3

Support-ing Info.

3.1

Support-ing Info.

3.2

:

Support-ing Info.

3.3


Message MappingMessage Mapping

1. Department of Health and Human Services/CDC: Pre-Event Maps for Avian Flu/Pandemic Influenza (www.pandemicflu.gov)

2. Multi-State Partnership for Agricultural Security: Message Maps for 30 Agricultural Scenarios

3. Environmental Protection Agency: Message Maps for 6 Water/Groundwater Contamination Scenarios (www.epa.gov/nhsrc)

1. Department of Health and Human Services/CDC: Pre-Event Maps for Avian Flu/Pandemic Influenza (www.pandemicflu.gov)

2. Multi-State Partnership for Agricultural Security: Message Maps for 30 Agricultural Scenarios

3. Environmental Protection Agency: Message Maps for 6 Water/Groundwater Contamination Scenarios (www.epa.gov/nhsrc)


KDG Template (Overarching Message Map)

KDG Template (Overarching Message Map)

(Know, Do, Go)

Key Message 1: What is most important for people to know

Key Message 2: What is most important for people to do

Key Message 3: Where can people go to get credible information

(Know, Do, Go)

Key Message 1: What is most important for people to know

Key Message 2: What is most important for people to do

Key Message 3: Where can people go to get credible information


Risk Communication Templates


• KDG• APP• CCO• 27/9/3• TBC

===• Primacy/Recency• AGL-4• 1N=3P




Risk Perceptions (Fear Factors)


Lower Concern/Fear

1. Under one’s control

2. Trustworthy sources

3. Fair/large benefits

Lower Concern/Fear



3. Fair/large benefits

Higher Concern/Fear

Controlled by others

Untrustworthy sources

Unfair/few or unclear benefits Involuntary

Higher Concern/Fear



Unfair/few or unclear benefits Involuntary


Message Mapping ExerciseMessage Mapping Exercise








Risk Communication LiteratureRisk Communication Literature


Risk Communication Literature: TemplatesRisk Communication Literature: Templates






The APP TemplateThe APP Template

1. Anticipate

2. Prepare

3. Practice

1. Anticipate

2. Prepare

3. Practice


The APP Template Planning and Preparation

The APP Template Planning and Preparation

“If I had all day to cut down a large tree, I would use most of the day sharpening my axe.”

Abraham Lincoln

“If I had all day to cut down a large tree, I would use most of the day sharpening my axe.”

Abraham Lincoln



“For most high stress situations, over 95 percent of stakeholder concerns and questions can be predicted in advance.”


“For most high stress situations, over 95 percent of stakeholder concerns and questions can be predicted in advance.”


Communication RegretCommunication Regret



1. Anticipate

2. Prepare

3. Practice

1. Anticipate

2. Prepare

3. Practice


Anticipate

1. Scenarios

2. Stakeholders/Partners

3. Stakeholder Questions and Concerns

Anticipate

1. Scenarios

2. Stakeholders/Partners

3. Stakeholder Questions and Concerns



1. Anticipate

2. Prepare

3. Practice

1. Anticipate

2. Prepare

3. Practice


Prepare

1. Messages2. Messengers3. Means

Prepare

1. Messages2. Messengers3. Means

APP TemplateAPP Template


Prepare Messages

1. Overarching Message

(e.g., KDG)

1. Informational Messages

2. Challenge Question Messages

Prepare Messages

1. Overarching Message

(e.g., KDG)

1. Informational Messages

2. Challenge Question Messages


The CCO Template The CCO Template

• Compassion

• Conviction

• Optimism

• Compassion

• Conviction

• Optimism


Caring/Empathy

“When people are stressed and upset, they want to know that

you care before they care what you know.”

Caring/Empathy

“When people are stressed and upset, they want to know that

you care before they care what you know.”


Assessed in first 9-30 seconds

Assessed in first 9-30 seconds

Listening/Caring/

Empathy/Compassion50%

Competence/Expertise 15-20%

Honesty/ Openness

15-20%

AllOther Factors

15-20%

Trust Factors in High Stress Situations

Trust Factors in High Stress Situations


Risk Communication ModelsRisk Communication Models

• The Trust Determination Model

• The Attention Span/Mental Noise Model

• The Negative Dominance Model

• The Trust Determination Model

• The Attention Span/Mental Noise Model

• The Negative Dominance Model


The CCO Template The CCO Template

• Compassion

• Conviction

• Optimism

• Compassion

• Conviction

• Optimism


Mayor Giuliani, 9/11Mayor Giuliani, 9/11

“The number of casualties is more than any of us can bear ultimately.”

“The number of casualties is more than any of us can bear ultimately.”


The 27/9/3 Template

The 27/9/3 Template

• 27 words

• 9 seconds

• 3 messages

• 27 words

• 9 seconds

• 3 messages


Attention Span/Mental NoiseAttention Span/Mental Noise


=========Rule of 3



=========Rule of 3



“The Magic Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information”George A. Miller (Department of Psychology, Princeton University)The Psychological Review, 1956, vol. 63, pp. 81-97

“The Magic Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information”George A. Miller (Department of Psychology, Princeton University)The Psychological Review, 1956, vol. 63, pp. 81-97

Risk Communication: Attention Span Research





“The Magic Number Three, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Receiving, Processing, and Remembering Information in High Stress Situations”

“The Magic Number Three, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Receiving, Processing, and Remembering Information in High Stress Situations”


High Stress Situations:

Rule of 3 Shift

High Stress Situations:

Rule of 3 Shift• Low Stress Situations:

Brain can hold on average

7 messages

• High Stress Situations:


3 messages

• Low Stress Situations:


7 messages



3 messages


The 27/9/3 Template

The 27/9/3 Template

• 27 words

• 9 seconds

• 3 messages

• 27 words

• 9 seconds

• 3 messages


27/9/3 Template27/9/3 Template

• 27 words

(total of 27 words for all three key messages, with each key

message averaging 9 words in length)

• 9 seconds

• 3 messages

• 27 words

(total of 27 words for all three key messages, with each key

message averaging 9 words in length)

• 9 seconds

• 3 messages


27/9/3 Exercise:Tony Blair, Prime Minister

7/7/05 London Terrorist Bombing

27/9/3 Exercise:Tony Blair, Prime Minister

7/7/05 London Terrorist Bombing


Risk Perceptions Risk Perceptions TBC Template (Trust, Benefits,

Control)

Key Message 1: Trust Message

Key Message 2: Benefits Message

Key Message 3: Control Message

TBC Template (Trust, Benefits, Control)

Key Message 1: Trust Message

Key Message 2: Benefits Message

Key Message 3: Control Message


Risk Perception LiteratureRisk Perception Literature


Risk Perceptions

“Perception equals reality.”

“That which is perceived as real is real in its consequences.”


“Facts about risk appear to play

little or no role in determining public fears, perceptions, and concerns about risks.”

“Facts about risk appear to play little or no role in determining public fears, perceptions, and concerns about risks.”




Lower Concern/Fear


2. Large benefits


4. Voluntary

5. Fair

6. Natural origin

7. Children not victims

Lower Concern/Fear


2. Large benefits


4. Voluntary

5. Fair

6. Natural origin

7. Children not victims

Higher Concern/Fear


Few or unclear benefits


Involuntary

Unfair

Human origin

Children as victims

Higher Concern/Fear


Few or unclear benefits


Involuntary

Unfair

Human origin

Children as victims


Risk Perception/Fear Factors Risk Perception/Fear Factors• Trust

• Listening/Caring• Competence/Expertise• Honesty/Transparency

• Benefits/Fairness • Societal• Community• Personal

• Control• Choice• Voice• Knowledge (e.g. things

for people to do)

• Trust• Listening/Caring• Competence/Expertise• Honesty/Transparency

• Benefits/Fairness • Societal• Community• Personal

• Control• Choice• Voice• Knowledge (e.g. things

for people to do)


PERCEPTIONS OF RISK

WEIGHTING FACTORSFactor Weight

Trust 2000

Benefit 1000

Control 1000


Risk PerceptionsRisk Perceptions

“The more you can do to increase perceived trust, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.”

“The more you can do to increase perceived trust, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.”



“The more you can do to increase perceived benefits and fairness, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.”

“The more you can do to increase perceived benefits and fairness, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.”



“The more you can do to increase perceived control, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.”

“The more you can do to increase perceived control, the less the concern, worry, and anxiety.”


Key Word Message Map

West Nile Virus Map

Key Message“Remove Standing Water”

Key Message“Wear Protective Clothing”

Key Message“Use Insect Repellent”

1.1

1.3

1.2

2.1

2.2

2.3

3.1

3.2

:

3.3

Unattended swimming pools

Long Sleeves

Cup of Water

Flower Pots/Bird

Baths

Long Pants

Dusk and Dawn

DEET

23%

Medical Research


Seven Step ModelSeven Step Model

1. Empathy/Caring2. Key Messages (3)3. Key Message 14. Key Message 25. Key Message 36. Repeat Key Messages (3)7. Sources of Further Information

1. Empathy/Caring2. Key Messages (3)3. Key Message 14. Key Message 25. Key Message 36. Repeat Key Messages (3)7. Sources of Further Information




• APP• CCO• 27/9/3• KDG• TBC





Primacy/Recency Template

“When people are stressed or upset, they typically focus most on what is said first (primacy)

and last (recency).”

Primacy/Recency Template

“When people are stressed or upset, they typically focus most on what is said first (primacy)

and last (recency).”


Primacy/Recency TemplatePrimacy/Recency Template


Brain processes information based on linear order (e.g., 1, 2, 3)


Brain processes information based on primacy/recency (e.g., 1, 3, 2)


Brain processes information based on linear order (e.g., 1, 2, 3)


Brain processes information based on primacy/recency (e.g., 1, 3, 2)


AGL-4 Template

=======

AGL (Average Grade Level) Minus 4 (Four Grade Levels)

Template

“When people are stressed or upset, they typically process

information at four grade levels below their average grade

level.”

AGL-4 Template

=======

AGL (Average Grade Level) Minus 4 (Four Grade Levels)

Template

“When people are stressed or upset, they typically process

information at four grade levels below their average grade

level.”


AGL-4 ShiftAGL-4 Shift


Brain processes information at

AGL (average grade level)



AGL-4 (average grade level minus 4 grade levels)



AGL (average grade level)



AGL-4 (average grade level minus 4 grade levels)


1N=3P Template

====

1N (Negative) Equals

3 P (Positives) Template

“When people are stressed or upset, they typically focus more

on the negative than on the positive.”

(Negative Dominance Principle)

1N=3P Template

====

1N (Negative) Equals

3 P (Positives) Template

“When people are stressed or upset, they typically focus more

on the negative than on the positive.”

(Negative Dominance Principle)


Negative Dominance

Negative Dominance

• High Stress Situations: 1N=3P(one negative on average equals three positives)

• Bad News Template: It takes on average 3 positives to balance one negative.

• High Stress Situations: 1N=3P(one negative on average equals three positives)

• Bad News Template: It takes on average 3 positives to balance one negative.


Negatives

====

No, Not, Never, Nothing, None

Negatives

====

No, Not, Never, Nothing, None



• The Stakeholder Predictability Model -- Templates: APP, KDG• The Attention Span/Mental Noise Model

-- Templates: 27/9/3, Primacy/Recency, AGL-4

• The Trust Determination Model -- Templates: CCO, TBC

• The Negative Dominance Model -- Templates: 1N=3P






Message EnhancementsMessage Enhancements

• Visuals

• Credible sources

• Non-verbal communication

• Bridging

• IDK

• Visuals



• Bridging

• IDK



Visuals

“When people are stressed or upset, a well constructed and presented visual can increase message attention, understanding, and recall by over 50 percent.”

Visuals

“When people are stressed or upset, a well constructed and presented visual can increase message attention, understanding, and recall by over 50 percent.”


Visuals

• Graphics

• Analogies

• Story Telling

Visuals

• Graphics

• Analogies

• Story Telling


Will H5N1 come to the US?


Resource Materials - VisualsResource Materials - Visuals

Prof. Edward Tufte (Yale University)

• “Visual Explanations”

• “The Visual Display of Quantitative Information.”

• “Envisioning Information.”

Prof. Edward Tufte (Yale University)

• “Visual Explanations”

• “The Visual Display of Quantitative Information.”

• “Envisioning Information.”



• Visuals



• Bridging

• IDK

• Visuals



• Bridging

• IDK


Credibility LadderCredibility Ladder

Most Credible

Least Credible

Most Credible

Least Credible

High Credibility

Medium Credibility

Low Credibility

High Credibility

Medium Credibility

Low Credibility


Credibility TransferenceCredibility Transference

“A lower credible source takes on the credibility of the highest credible source that agrees with its position on an issue.”

“A lower credible source takes on the credibility of the highest credible source that agrees with its position on an issue.”


Credibility ReversalCredibility Reversal

“When a lower source attacks the credibility of a higher source, the lower source loses further credibility.

The only information source that can effectively attack the credibility of another source is one of equal or higher credibility.”

“When a lower source attacks the credibility of a higher source, the lower source loses further credibility.

The only information source that can effectively attack the credibility of another source is one of equal or higher credibility.”



• Visuals



• Bridging

• IDK

• Visuals



• Bridging

• IDK


Non-Verbal Communications in High Stress Situations

• Provide up to 75 percent of message

content

• Are intensely and quickly noticed

• Typically override verbal content

• Are typically interpreted negatively


Resource Materials:

Non-Verbal Communincation

Resource Materials:

Non-Verbal Communincation

• Prof. D. Morris, “Body Talk: A Dictionary of Human Gestures”

• Prof. P. Ekman, “Telling Lies: Clues to Deception”

• Prof. P. Ekman, “Emotions Revealed”

• Prof. D. Morris, “Body Talk: A Dictionary of Human Gestures”

• Prof. P. Ekman, “Telling Lies: Clues to Deception”

• Prof. P. Ekman, “Emotions Revealed”



• Visuals



• Bridging

• IDK

• Visuals



• Bridging

• IDK


BridgingBridging


Bridging Statements

Examples: 1.“The most important thing

for people to know is…”2.“What all this boils down

to is…” 3.“What needs to be

emphasized is…”

Bridging Statements

Examples: 1.“The most important thing

for people to know is…”2.“What all this boils down

to is…” 3.“What needs to be

emphasized is…”



• Visuals



• Bridging

• IDK

• Visuals



• Bridging

• IDK


I.D.K. (I Don’t Know) Template

I.D.K. (I Don’t Know) Template

(Repeat the Question)

Say You Don’t Know/Can’t

Answer/Wish You Could Answer*

Give the Reason(s) Why You Don’t Know or Can’t Answer*

Indicate Follow Up with Deadline*

(Bridge to What You Can Say, Such as Overarching Message)

(Repeat the Question)

Say You Don’t Know/Can’t

Answer/Wish You Could Answer*

Give the Reason(s) Why You Don’t Know or Can’t Answer*

Indicate Follow Up with Deadline*

(Bridge to What You Can Say, Such as Overarching Message)








Risk Communication:

Key Messages

Risk Communication:

Key Messages

copyright, dr. v covello, center for change/risk communication core slides dr. vincent t. covello...

Documents

questions of upset people

risk communication new

v covello

covello director center

difficulty hearing

exchange of information

levels of concern slide

new york email