copyright © cengage learning. all rights reserved. chapter 7 uncertainty: data and chance

Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

CHAPTER 7

Uncertainty: Data and Chance

Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

SECTION 7.1

The Process of Collecting andAnalyzing Data

3

What Do You Think?

• How can the way a set of data is represented affect the way it is interpreted?

• What do we mean by average?

• Why do mathematicians discourage reporting just the average when describing a population?

• Consider a graph that you have recently encountered. Was it accurate? How could you tell?

4

The Process of Collecting and Analyzing Data

There are four basic components in the process of using statistics to answer a question.

5

Four Basic Components

6


1. Formulating the Question

The process begins with a question that can be answered by collecting data, for example, what are the

chances that you will get a teaching job after graduating?

Then we figure out how to change this question into a “statistical” question that is specific enough that we can collect useful data but yet does not so simplify the

original question that the data aren’t useful. We are creating data as much as we are collecting data.

7


2. Collecting the Data

There are many things we have to think about to ensure that we have accurate data.

There are many methods used to collect data: observation, surveys, questionnaires, experiments, interviews, and simulations.

8


3. Representing and Analyzing the Data

Raw data is simply a pile of numbers, like all the materials for a building project—nails, boards, shingles,

etc. We need to organize the data and how we organize the data depends on what we want to know.

We can choose from many kinds of graphs and numerical methods, but there are no hard and fast rules

for deciding which ones are most helpful with respect to our question. Each one is more useful for some

situations and less useful, or even invalid, in other situations.

9


4. Interpreting and Presenting Our Results

We interpret these graphs and numbers and turn them into conclusions. We determine what answers they give us and what answers they didn’t give us.

Our first question involves categorical data, that is, data that are not numbers but categories.

10

Investigation A – What Is Your Favorite Sport?

A common introductory activity with children is to have them formulate questions and then collect data with themselves as the population. Let’s say this question has been presented: What is your favorite sport? What do we need to do to clarify this question so that when we ask everyone to answer the question, we will have useful data?

Discussion:Refining the question Several issues emerge when we consider this question, for example, do you mean favorite sport to play or to watch? If we don’t clarify this when we ask the question, people will not be answering the same question.

11

Investigation A – Discussion

Some will be saying their favorite sport to play and some will be saying their favorite sport to watch.

Let’s say we decide to ask: What is your favorite sport to watch? This is still not 100% clear: Favorite to watch on TV or to watch in person? My favorite to watch in person is baseball, but my favorite to watch on TV is football.

We also need to think about how to ask the question. For example, let’s say we decide to ask about favorite sport to watch on TV.

cont’d

12


Do we want it open-ended, where people can give whatever sport they consider to be their favorite, or do we ask them to select among a list, for example, football, soccer, basketball, and baseball?

As you can see, we can easily get overwhelmed with the many complexities of a seemingly simple question. When this happens, it is helpful to go back to why you are asking the question.

cont’d

13


For example, if you are just curious as to what people might think of as sports, then you would make it as open-ended as possible.

If you were asking this question just before the summer Olympics, you might ask: Which of the summer Olympic sports do you most like to watch? You might also consider having “none” as a legitimate response.

All this thinking in the first step of formulating the question!

cont’d

14


Collecting the data With respect to collecting the data, we need to consider what additional data we want.

For example, are we interested in investigating differences between boys and girls? If this were a high school poll, would we want to see if there was a difference among freshmen, sophomores, juniors, and seniors?

Representing the data At some point, the question is written, the format determined, and the data collected. Let’s say the question the college students asked was: What competitive, team sport do you most enjoy watching at your college?

cont’d

15


A common and simple way to display the data is a frequency table. This is simply a table showing the number of times (called the frequency) that each category occurred.

How might we represent these data? In this case, the two most common representations are a bar graph and a circle graph.

cont’d

16


Bar graph A bar graph is used to represent situations where the data are categories.

The bar graph is pretty straightforward, though there are choices of order.

We could arrange them randomly, alphabetically, or by popularity, depending on our preference.

cont’d

17


For example, we might put football, basketball, and baseball in order if we want to see how many of the class has one of the “big three” as their favorite sport(Figure 7.1).

cont’d

Figure 7.1

What is your favorite sport?

18


Circle graph The circle graph is a bit more complex.

We can turn the numbers into percents and then sketch a circle graph or we can turn them into degrees (fractions of a circle) and make the graph with a protractor.

Can you convert the data into percentages and into parts of a circle? (A whole circle is 360 degrees.)

cont’d

19


To convert to percentages, we first need to know the whole, which is 17 in this case.

Thus, football Since we are sketching, we can easily round this to 29%.

To find the degrees, you multiply by 360. For example, the football slice is degrees.

As with bar graphs, there are no hard and fast rules for ordering the slices. Again, it depends on what we want to know. If you are sketching the graphs by hand, there are many ways to do this.

cont’d

20


Let me walk you through one way. First, you can partition the circle into fourths. Thus each quarter circle is 25%. Then, depending on the nature of the data, you can divide each quarter into thirds (so each third is about 8%) or into fourths (so each fourth is about 6%).

We begin with the largest (29%),which is 25% plus 4%, so it makes sense to take the secondquarter and break it into thirds (8%)and then divide the first of thosethirds in half (4%) [Figure 7.2(a)].

cont’d

Figure 7.2(a)

21


Basketball is next with 18%. We have the 4% slice left plus 8% plus 8% = 20%, so the basketball slice will be not quite the rest of this quarter circle. We can always check with our whole. That is, football plus basketball = 47%, so we need to be just under and we are.

Baseball is 12%. In this case, rather than finding a 12% slice, I find it easier to find where 59% is, because that is how much of the circle I need after these three sports.

cont’d

22


Since 59% is 50% plus 9%, we can partition the third quarter circle into thirds [Figure 7.2(b)]. We have 50 plus 8, and so our line is just a “bit more” than this.

Next, we look at soccer andsee that we will now have 82% of the circle: 75% plus 7.So it makes sense to partitionthat last circle into fourths,6, 6, 6, 6 [Figure 7.2(b)].

cont’d

Figure 7.2(b)

23


Soccer is thus about one slice past the 75% mark. We now have three 6% slices—6% for rugby and 12% for lacrosse. The final circle graph is shown in Figure 7.2(c).

cont’d

Figure 7.2(c)

24


Stop for a moment and think about bar graphs and circle graphs. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each?

Most of my students find that bar graphs are easier to read than circle graphs. The bar graph tells you the number in each category (e.g., five people chose football as their favorite sport).

However, you cannot tell immediately from a bar graph what percent each category represents, and this is one of the primary advantages of a circle graph.

cont’d

25


From the circle graph, we can quickly see that just over of the people named football, and we can make statements about combinations of categories, for example, almost of the people named football or basketball.

One disadvantage of circle graphs is that they generally do not show the raw data, but rather the percentages, and so we lose the actual data.

One cautionary note with circle graphs is that they are valid only when we have a whole for which it makes sense to find parts of, that is, percentages.

cont’d

26


Analysis Now, we present our results. What we present depends on our intentions.

We can simply present the frequency table and readers can see the number in each sport.

The bar graph is a visual representation of the frequency table from which we can make various statements; for example, football and soccer were most popular.

cont’d

27


The circle graph enables us to make statements about what fraction or percentage of the whole each category or combinations of categories represent; for example, 59% chose the traditional “big 3” of football, basketball, and baseball.

Or we could say almost (41%) chose sports that haven’t been around as long in the United States.

cont’d

28

Investigation B – How Many Siblings Do You Have?

In this case, the response is not a category but rather a number. How would you formulate this question? What are the aspects that need to be addressed so that everyone will be answering the same question.

Refining the question There are many considerations. For example: What is a sibling? Does adopted count? What about half-, step-, or foster siblings? What if someone had a sibling who died? Do we count that? There are no right answers to these questions. It depends on what you want to find out.

29


If you want to know how many kids live full-time in the house, then you would ask how many siblings live with you all the time.

If you wanted to know the number of biological siblings, you would ask for full and half-siblings. If you want to know how many people the child considers to be his or her siblings, you would ask: how many siblings do you have—people that you consider to be your brothers and/or sisters?

cont’d

30


Collecting the data The data collection process for this question is fairly straightforward. However, we could expand the question to ask: How many siblings does your father have? Your mother? Of course, that could easily become complicated: what if the parents are divorced? What if the child feels closer to her step-father than to her biological father?

But, as the saying goes, welcome to my world! This is the kind of complexity that is involved in virtually every statistical question that is investigated. Thus, one of the “big ideas” of this unit is for you to see statistics not as cut and dried, black and white, but as complex and inexact.

cont’d

31


Representing the data Let’s say we collected the data and here are our results.

0 1 4 0 1 2 3 1 7 3 1 3 1 2 1 0 12 1 2

A first step is to organize the data into a frequency table:

cont’d

32


How might we represent these data, graphically and numerically? Make your own graphs and computations and interpretations before reading on.

cont’d

33

Investigation B – Discussion

Line plot One plot that is introduced in grade school is the line plot. A line plot for our data is shown below. What do you “see” from this graph? That is, what does it tell us with respect to our question that the raw data do not?

Figure 7.3

34


There are many ways to verbalize what we can interpret from the line plot. The data range from 0 to 12. We can see a cluster of data from 0 to 2. This could be verbalized as “most of the kids have 2 or fewer siblings.” We see some gaps in the data, and we see some data that lie outside the rest. These are often called outliers.

We could make quantitative statements about these data, for example, 68% of the students have between 0 and 2 siblings. We could represent this in fractional form also: almost of the children have 0, 1, or 2 siblings.

cont’d

35


Histogram We can make a histogram from these data. A histogram can be used to summarize numerical data that are on an interval scale, either discrete or continuous. Look at the histogram below.

cont’d

Figure 7.4

36


In the previous investigation, each bar represented the frequency of each category (that is, each sport). In this case, each bar represents the frequency of each number of siblings.

cont’d

Figure 7.5

37


The first graph is valid and the second one is not. The second one is not considered valid because it hides or masks the distribution of the data. That is, there is a gap between 4 and 7 siblings and a gap between 7 and 12.

Another aspect of the histogram that is confusing for many children and for some of my students is the y-axis, which is labeled “Frequency.” What does that mean? It tells the frequency of each amount. That is, 3 students have 0 siblings, 6 students have 1 sibling, etc.

cont’d

38


We could also make a circle graph from these data. Below are two circle graphs. One is in order of how many siblings. The other is in the order of greatest to least. Which do you prefer?

cont’d

Figure 7.6

How many siblings do you have? How many siblings do you have?

39


I prefer the former, because it enables me to quickly see other questions I might ask: How many children have 0 or 1 sibling? How many have more than 2 siblings? It is much easier to answer these kinds of questions if the slices of the circle are in numerical order.

cont’d

40

Measures of Central Tendency

41


You know the measures of central tendency as mean, median, and mode. We begin with how to find each:

Mean: Add each data value and divide by the number of data values.

Median: Arrange the data values in numerical order. The median is the middle data value. If there are an even number of data, then find the mean of the two closest to the middle. For example, if we have 3, 5, 6, 8, 12, and 15, there is no middle. Since 6 and 8 are closest to the middle, the median is 7.

42


Mode: The data value that occurs most often.

With our sibling data, we have

In this case, the mean is 2.47, the median is 2, and the mode is 1. So which one is correct? Actually, they are all correct. The more useful question is “which one is more useful?” and the answer depends on what we are looking for. If we are looking to answer the question, “what is the most frequent number of siblings?” then the answer is the mode.

43


If we are looking for the middle data value (half above and below), then our answer is the median.

If we are looking for what is normally considered to be the “average,” then the answer is the mean.

If you are moving to a new town, you probably want to know the average price of a new home. When you are looking for a job, you might want to know the average starting salary of teachers in the state.

44


In general, the average gives you a sense of the area where most of the data will lie, and it is generally close to the center of the data, which is why these three terms are called measures of central tendency.

That is, if you look at the neighborhood in which the mean, median, or mode lie, that will generally be where a majority of the data values are found.

45


Conclusions Below are three of many conclusions we could draw from this set of data:

The average number of siblings is either 1, 2, or 2.47, depending on which center we pick.

More than half the class has 2 or fewer siblings.

Two students come from much larger families than the rest of the class.

46

Deepening Our Understanding of Measures of Central Tendency

47


While most students have heard of mean, median, and mode before this course, “measures of central tendency” is a new concept and therefore worth more consideration. Think back on this investigation and take a moment to note your responses to the following questions

What does a measure of central tendency tell us about a set of data?

Why do we determine one of these centers in the first place?

What does it not tell us about a set of data?

48


Let me use an analogy to help answer these questions. If you saw a snapshot of my classroom, it would give you some information about my class. For example, you could determine the number of students, and you would see that the students are not sitting in rows.

You might see me standing at the front of the room and you might see a computer projection on the screen. Similarly, the mean, median, or mode gives us a snapshot of a set of data.

49


To summarize: Measures of central tendency are simply one of many parts of an analysis of data. At best, they present an incomplete picture.

At worst, they can lead to an erroneous sense of the set of data. Thus, a responsible report on a set of data will not give just the mean, median, or mode, but rather more information.

50


Pros and Cons of Each Measure In some cases, we want to know the mean. If you took five tests in a course, your instructor would generally determine your average score by using the mean—adding up the scores and dividing by 5.

In some cases, we want to know the median. If you determined the height of all the students in your class and ordered the numbers from smallest to greatest, the number in the middle would be the median.

In some cases, we want to know the mode. The mode is often used when the characteristic we are studying is not a number.

51


One of the reasons for determining the average of a set of data is that one number or one phrase can give a quick summary of the data.

The mean, median, and mode are all candidates to be considered as a representative of the data.

In some cases, the mean, median, and mode are very close, but sometimes they are not.

52


Deepening Our Understanding of the Mean The concept of “mean” is frustrating for a college teacher, because so many students enter the course believing that mean and average are the same thing. This concept falls in the “rubber band family of learnings.”

Imagine the student as a rubber band. The professor teaching the new idea is stretching the student’s understanding. However, researchers have found that in all too many cases, several months after the course the student’s understanding is like the rubber band—it snaps back to its initial state.

53


I discussed this earlier as the difference between rented and owned knowledge.

The next investigation is one I first discovered in a methods textbook for elementary teachers; I have since seen variations of it in many places, including elementary school textbooks.

My students enjoy it because it is fun and because they can quickly see that they can use it with their students also.

54

Investigation C – Going Beyond a Computational Sense of Average

This investigation is designed to help you come to a deeper understanding of the meaning of the mean.

Imagine that five elementary school children were asked how many movies they saw in the past year, and they responded: 7, 2, 9, 8, and 4.

First, write down what you think the mean tells you about a set of data.

55


Figure 7.7 is one physical representation of the data, using pennies to represent each movie seen. Figure 7.8 is a bar graph where the bars are horizontal.

Figure 7.8Figure 7.7

cont’d

56


Do not compute the mean. Rather, draw a vertical line across the standard bar graph where, on the basis of your current sense of what the mean is, you “feel” the mean will be.

Now, I want you to get some pennies and make the “graph” shown in Figure 7.7. If you don’t have pennies, other coins or small objects will do.

Now move the pennies so that all the bars are the same length. What did you just learn about the mean?

cont’d

57

Investigation C – Discussion

The mean can be viewed as the number you get when all the values are leveled off.

In this case, if we “give” values from the larger amounts to the smaller amounts until all the amounts are the same, then the length of the bars and the number of pennies in each row are all the same.

This conception of the mean is often referred to as the fair share conception.

58

Another Interpretation of Mean

59


The mean is also the center of gravity of a set of data; this can also be described as the balance point of the data. Think of a seesaw. If two people of the same weight sit the same distance from the center, it balances. If one person sits farther from the center, the seesaw will not balance (Figure 7.9).

Figure 7.9

60


If you imagine each of the children in this investigation sitting on a seesaw at the number corresponding to the number of movies they saw, the seesaw would balance at 6, the mean. That is, the two persons at 2 and 4 will balance the three persons at 7, 8, and 9 because the 2 and the 4 are farther from the center than 7, 8, and 9(Figure 7.10).

Let us now move on to another question and another set of data.

Figure 7.10

61

Investigation D – How Many Peanuts Can You Hold in One Hand?

I have done this investigation with my students and with local elementary school children. You might do this also!

Refining the question This question is pretty straightforward. However, the collection process is a bit messy!

Collecting the data Most of the leaders in statistics education argue that one of the big ideas of statistics is variation. This has to do with the fact that most of the numbers we use when collecting and analyzing data are not the same. Sometimes they are not the same because of the natural variation among individuals.

62


Then there is variation that often happens when we take repeated measurements of an individual or an object. In this investigation, when a person grabs a handful of peanuts, they will not get the same number each time.

When I first did this investigation, I did it five times and I got 32, 28, 22, 31, and 35 peanuts. This kind of variation is called measurement variation.

cont’d

63


We expect natural variation. However, when collecting data to answer a question, we want to minimize measurement variation.

In this case, we have to think about the data collection process so that we minimize the measurement variation.

Thus, we have to standardize the procedure for collecting the data. How might you describe the procedure so that everyone is doing the same thing?

cont’d

64


When we tried this, some people scooped the peanuts, that is, they reached in with palm up and open. Then they closed their hand slightly and slowly brought their hand up.

Others reached in with their palms down and grabbed. I found that if I groped around, I could feel when I had about as many peanuts as possible. So we had to standardize the procedure.

cont’d

65


We decided on:

Reach in with your palm down and grab as many peanuts as you can.

You have to raise your hand from the bag within three seconds. Move your hand so that it is above the table. Whatever peanuts fall onto the table will be counted.

We also considered other “yeah buts” that could affect the reliability (consistency) of the data, for example, there were some empty shells and there were double shells and single shells.

cont’d

66


To reduce this variation, we could empty the peanuts on a table and then put into a bag only those peanuts that consisted of double shells.

Representing the data Here are our data.

18, 18, 20, 22, 22, 22, 22, 22, 23, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 26, 26, 27, 27, 30, 30, 32, 32, 37

What do you see? What graphs might help us to understand the shape of the data—how the data values are distributed, clusters, gaps, outliers, range, etc.? What measures of central tendency are more useful?

cont’d

67


Let us consider a line plot as shown below. What does this representation tell us?

cont’d

Figure 7.11

68


From the line plot, we can make many statements:

The data range from 18 to 37 peanuts.

The data are pretty well spread out.

That is, there is no primary cluster as there was in the previous set. About of the students held between 22 and 26 peanuts.

cont’d

69


The mean is 25.3. The median is 25. The mode is 22, well sort of. In this case, the mode is technically 22, but almost as many people held 25.

So, 22 is not as “strong” a mode as 1 was for the number of siblings. We will discuss this idea more deeply in the next investigation.

The person who held 37 is a bit of an outlier in the sense that there is a fairly big gap between 37 and the next highest data value, 32.

cont’d

70


Just as with the siblings data, we could make a histogram. However, in this case, the data are more spread out.

When the data are more spread out, in order to help us interpret the data better, it helps to put the data into intervals. In this case, we can make a grouped frequency table for the data. For example, we could do the following:

cont’d

71


We can make a histogram from these data. What do we gain from putting the data into intervals and then making a histogram (Figure 7.12)?

cont’d

Figure 7.12

72


In this case, two conclusions we can make from the histogram are that the majority of the data are between 20 and 29 and that there are some below 20 and some above 29.

In the case of intervals, the question is not “what is right?” but again “what is useful?” We generally group data using our base ten system (e.g., 0–9, 10–19, 20–29, etc.).

cont’d

73


We could have done that with these data, but it wouldn’t have been terribly useful:

That is, we didn’t need a histogram to see that the vast majority of cases were in the 20s. In many cases, we want to view our data with a finer grain.

cont’d

74


In this case, the finer grain consisted of making the intervals 5 instead of 10. However, we could have picked smaller intervals (e.g., 18–20, 21–23, 24–26).

In general, as the interval size increases, the graph gives us less information about the data.

We will investigate intervals more deeply in the next investigation.

cont’d

75


Conclusions:

So what have we learned about how many peanuts can a person hold in one hand?

We have learned that there is quite a bit of variation: The greatest value is virtually double the smallest value.

The majority of the numbers are clustered between 22 and 26, and both mean and median are in the mid-twenties.

cont’d

76

Investigation E – How Long Does It Take Students to Finish the Final Exam?

This was a question for which I decided to collect data. I know that a fair exam is one in which there are questions about everything that was addressed during the semester. However, a fair exam would be very long.

Therefore, a final exam has a certain inherent degree of unfairness. Thus, having more questions on the final exam increases the chance that the exam will be fair.

However, if an exam is too long, students can get stressed. So I decided to gather data on this question.

77

Investigation E – How Long Does It Take Students to Finish the Final Exam?

I told my students that they could take as much time on the final as they wished, and I recorded how long each student took to take the exam. The data below are the times, in minutes, that the students took on the exam:

62, 76, 87, 89, 93, 95, 98, 99, 101, 103, 105, 108, 111, 112, 115, 115, 116, 116, 124, 124, 126, 126, 130, 132, 132, 134, 137, 139, 139, 144, 146, 148, 148, 154, 154, 156, 160

What analyses might you do of these data to advise me? Take some time to explore the data, using knowledge that you already have. Summarize what you learned and state your conclusions.

cont’d

78

Investigation E – Discussion

Examining the spread of the data A line plot (Figure 7.13) gives us a sense of the distribution without losing any data.

In this case, the line plot doesn’t tell us much beyond what we knew already. The range is so great that patterns in the data are not apparent.

Figure 7.13

79


A stem-and-leaf plot helps us to organize the data(see Table 7.1).

cont’d

Table 7.1

80


A stem-and-leaf plot (sometimes simply called a stem plot) display the values in rows. The numbers at the left are the stems and the numbers are the right are the leaves.

Consider the two digits at the top row of the stem-and-leaf plot: 6 and 2.

The 6 is essentially a code that tells us that all the values on this row are in the 60s. Thus, the 2 next to the 6 represents a data value of 62.

cont’d

81


As with the line plot, we don’t lose any data (for example, we still know the minimum and maximum). In this case, the stem plot shows us that as we get closer to the middle of the data, the number of students is greater.

As we did with the peanuts data, by selecting an interval size, we can make a grouped frequency table for the data. The intervals are called classes.

cont’d

82


It is important to note again that there is no one “right” interval size. For example, we could choose an interval size of 10 minutes, in which case we have Table 7.2.

cont’d

Table 7.2

83


This choice produces 11 classes. Alternatively, we could choose an interval size of 20 minutes, in which case we have Table 7.3, which gives us six classes.

cont’d

Table 7.3

84


From these data, we can make a histogram. Examine the two histograms in Figure 7.14.

cont’d

Figure 7.14

(b)(a)

85


The histogram in Figure 7.14(a) indicates that the majority of the times are between 90 and 150 minutes, and it shows two peak intervals: 110–119 and 130–139. The histogram in Figure 7.14(b) indicates that a majority of the times lie between 100 and 139 minutes.

Note that with the second set of grouped frequencies, we could also make a circle graph for the data. This would more rapidly give a sense of what proportion of the class finished in each of the time intervals. Technically, we could do this with the first set, but a circle graph with 11 slices is a bit much.

cont’d

86


Finding the center If you haven’t already done so, estimate the median from the line plot or one of the histograms.

From the line plot (Figure 7.13), we can see that there are about as many data values above 120 minutes as below.

cont’d

Figure 7.13

87


From Figure 7.14(a), we can see that there are roughly as many data values above the 120–129 group as there are below. In fact, the median is 124 minutes. In this case, the mean is close, 120 minutes.

cont’d

Figure 7.14(a)

88


The strict interpretation of the mode is relatively meaningless in this case.

There are several data values that occurred twice, but a frequency of only 2 in a set of 37 hardly makes a number a candidate for typical.

Thus, when we make grouped frequency tables, we speak of a modal class—that is, the class that occurs most frequently.

cont’d

89

Measures of Center Revisited

90

Measures of Central Revisited

It is crucial that you understand what centers tell us, what they don’t tell us, and how they can be misleading.

While centers can give us a snapshot of a population, they do not tell us anything about the variation in a set of data, about clusters, gaps, and the range.

91

Measures of Central Revisited

Table 7.4 summarizes the main reasons for using each measure and some of the disadvantages of each.

Table 7.4

92

Dispersion, Variation, and Distributions

93


We have focused on three tools that enable us to make statements about a set of data: graphs, measures of center (mean, median, and mode), and measures of dispersion (range, clusters, gaps, and outliers).

There are many ways in which a set of data can be distributed. In this course, we will focus on five distributions: uniform, skewed to the right, skewed to the left, bimodal, and normal.

94


The graphs in Figure 7.15 represent idealized (smoothed) versions of these distributions.

Figure 7.15

95


The line graphs shown in Figure 7.15 can be thought of as evolving from histograms (with which most students report being more comfortable). For example, if we collected data on the number of siblings, we would have the histogram shown at the left in Figure 7.16.

Figure 7.16

96


If we made a line graph from those data, we would have the line graph shown at the right in Figure 7.16.

Table 7.5 gives one example for each of the five distributions.

Figure 7.5

97


If the shape of the graph of “Salaries in a factory” is skewed to the right, that means that the frequency of salaries will peak to the left of the middle, and the graph will slope more sharply to the left than to the right.

In other words, there will be people much farther to the right of the center (making much higher salaries) than to the left of the center.

From another perspective, the peak of this graph is not in the exact middle of the highest and lowest salaries but is closer to the lowest.

98


We can make some generalizations about using these terms to describe the center of a set of data:

• If the distribution of the data is skewed, the median will often be more representative than the mean. Do you see why?

• If the data are categories rather than numbers (for example, favorite TV show versus age), the mode is used to convey the center of the data.

99


We might say, for example, that the typical American family eats hot dogs on the Fourth of July; this

statement indicates that it has been determined that more families eat hot dogs on the Fourth of July than any other food.

• If the distribution is symmetric (for instance, normal) the mean, median, and mode will be close to one another.

100


Variation comes to play in another way with respect to distributions. Both of the graphs below represent data that are normally distributed. In the former case, the variation is small; in the latter case, the variation is large.

Figure 7.17

101

What Have We Learned About the Data Collection and Analysis Cycle?

102


We have learned that we collect and analyze data for a variety of reasons: to help us make a decision, to help us make predictions, and to help us to understand situations.

We have learned that when we are collecting data, we often want a number that gives us a sense of that region where most of the data are likely to lie.

We have learned that there are different candidates for center, and each one has its pluses and minuses. Which one we select, or whether we report all three, depends on what we want to know about the population on which we are collecting data.

103


We have learned that any of the centers gives us only a partial sense of the population.

We have learned that variation exists everywhere. There is naturally occurring variation—people prefer different sports, people have different size families, not everyone can pick the same number of peanuts, and not everyone finishes the exam in the same amount of time.

There is also measurement variation.

104


When asking a question, we want to minimize the measurement variation. If we have not done a good job of minimizing this kind of variation, then our results are suspect.

We have learned that there are different ways to represent data—tables, line plots, bar graphs, circle graphs, and histograms. We can also make graphs from grouping the results into intervals or classes.

105


We have learned that every population has a shape when we make a line plot or histogram. There are many features in interpreting the shape of a set of data:

All sets of data have a smallest and a largest value, a minimum and a maximum. We can subtract the minimum from the maximum and get the range.

Most sets of data have one or more clusters and one or more gaps. Some sets have outliers. We even have names for certain kinds of shapes: normal, skewed and so on.

106

Exploring Data with Larger Numbers and Different Settings

107


Up to this point, we have investigated data where the numbers are all relatively small. If you look at a newspaper, you will find data and graphs with large numbers. Now, we will examine how to make and interpret graphs when the numbers are large.

In each of the investigations that follow, you will initially be presented with a set of data or a graph. You will be asked to record your initial impressions and conclusions. You will also be asked to note questions you have about the data or the graph.

108


We will discuss two kinds of questions: questions about aspects of the data or graph that you don’t understand and questions about the reliability and validity of the data

Questions about reliability ask whether two people collecting the data would get the same numbers. Questions about validity ask whether the methods used to collect the data are sound.

109

Investigation F – Videocassette Recorders

In this first investigation, we will examine two commonly usedgraphs and some of the problemsinvolved in making them. Take a minute to examine the data in Table 7.6.

First, describe the growth of VCRs, as mathematically as possible, as though you weretalking to someone on the phone.

Table 7.6

Source: The Universal Almanac 1992,copyright © 1992 by John W. Wright.Reprinted with permission of AndrewsMcMeel Universal. All rights reserved.

110

Investigation F – Videocassette Recorders

Please be more precise than “Wow, they sure got popular fast.” Second, describe any questions you have about the data.

cont’d

111

Investigation F – Discussion

At the most basic level, Table 7.6 shows that the number of U.S. households with VCRs increased every year. At a slightly more sophisticated level, using our knowledge of multiplication and estimation, we can say that the number of households with VCRs just about doubled every year until 1987.

Possible questions about this table include: What does (’000s) mean? What has happened since 1990? Because the table starts in 1978, does that mean that was the year in which VCRs were first sold? Who collected the data, and how did they get these numbers?

112


Many people wonder what (’000s) means. This is a convention that graph makers use when dealing with large numbers.

There are two equivalent ways to “decode” this symbol: “Write three zeros after each number in the table to get the actual numbers” or “Each number is in the thousands; thus 200 means two hundred thousand.”

cont’d

113


Graphing these data Now let us examine how a graph can help us to see the data better.

What kind of graph do you think might best describe these data?

cont’d

114


Look at the two graphs in Figure 7.18 and address the following questions: What do they tell us about the VCRs? Are both graphs “correct,” or is one “better” than the other? Summarize the pros and cons of each graph.

cont’d

Figure 7.18

115


Both of these graphs are valid ways to represent these data. Many people prefer bar graphs to line graphs, finding the former easier to understand. The primary advantage of the line graph has to do with slope.

In a linear equation, the slope is constant, so a straight line indicates constant growth. However, when the slope keeps increasing, that indicates that the rate of growth is increasing, and we refer to such growth as exponential.

The line graph in Figure 7.18 more clearly shows that the rate of increase started to slow down in 1987.

cont’d

116


A common graphing mistake A mistake that many students make when graphing is shown in Figure 7.19. Do you see why this graph is invalid?

cont’d

Figure 7.19

117


The maker of the graph chose one unit for the bottom part of the graph and then chose another unit for the top part of the graph. That is, the student had two different vertical units on the same graph.

For the first four vertical intervals, the unit is 2.5 million; thereafter, the unit is 10 million. The rationale for the different scales is that the smaller numbers can be more accurately placed. However, it is not acceptable to change the unit (or scale) on a graph.

cont’d

118


Changing the unit conveys an invalid impression of the data. The earlier graph implies that the rate of increase slowed down after 1984, whereas it wasn’t until 1987 that the rate of increase began to slow down.

On the other hand, there is no single “right” answer to what is the “best” unit. In general, the smaller the unit, the better we can see trends in the data. However, the smaller the unit, the bigger the graph.

cont’d

119


Horizontal spacing This issue of scale and unit applied to the horizontal spacing also. For example, one can choose to have more or less horizontal space between the years, as long as the spacing is constant—that is, each year is the same distance apart from the previous year.

Although there are no rights and wrongs with respect to these decisions, it is important to note that different decisions about the choice of units cause the graph to look different.

cont’d

120


For example, the two graphs in Figure 7.20 represent the same data. In these two graphs, the vertical scales are identical. The difference is that in the graph at the right, the years are closer together.

cont’d

Figure 7.20

121


Although the two graphs appear very different, they are mathematically equivalent. For example, the number of VCRs in 1985 was double the number in 1984. In both graphs, the point representing 1985 is twice as high as the point representing 1984.

Missing years At this point a curious reader might be wondering what has happened since 1990. Since 1990, we don’t have data for every year. We do have data for 1995 and 2000. However, before you look at the data, predict what you think they might be.

This is called extrapolating—that is, predicting the future on the basis of current information.

cont’d

122


The numbers for 1995 and 2000, respectively, are 79 and 86 million. Figure 7.21 shows two commonly drawn graphs. What do you think about the graphs? Are they both valid or is only one valid?

cont’d

Figure 7.21

123


In some cases, as you have found already, two different methods can both be valid. However, in this case, the first graph is invalid.

It is invalid because the distance between 1990 and 1995 is the same as the distance between 1990 and 1989. However, 1990 and 1995 are 5 years apart, whereas 1989 and 1990 are only 1 year apart.

The second graph shows visually what the numbers show—that the rate of increase in households with VCRs was slowing down.

cont’d

124

Interpreting Graphs

125

Interpreting Graphs

In everyday life, we generally don’t collect data and graph data as much as we interpret other people’s graphs of data that they or yet other people have collected. The ability to interpret and to critique graphs is important.

As you read each graph, I encourage you to think about four kinds of questions before you read the discussion. As always, if you write down your responses, you are likely to retain more from your work.

126

Interpreting Graphs

Conclusions:

What conclusion(s) can I draw from the graph? Do the conclusion(s) that I read seem reasonable?

Construction of the graph:

Are the scales and the units clear or are they misleading? Would another graph be more appropriate? Why or why not?

127

Interpreting Graphs

Reliability/validity:

Do I have questions about how the data were obtained that could affect the accuracy of the data?

Further questions:

Questions to help you better interpret or understand the data and graph.

Questions that this data set and graph provoke in you.

128

Investigation G – Fatal Crashes

Let us begin with a graph that indicates hopeful news. Examine the graph in Figure 7.22 and answer each of the four kinds of questions before reading on.

Source: NHTSA Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), 2004.

Figure 7.22

129

Investigation G – Discussion

One student wrote the following: “The percent of fatal car crashes in which the driver was drunk fell dramatically between 1990 and 1997.” What do you think of her summary?

Actually, there are several problems with the student’s summary. First, the data don’t seem to be restricted to car crashes. What kinds of “traffic fatalities” do you think count in these data?

130


Other kinds of traffic fatalities include crashes between two motor vehicles (trucks, cars, motorcycles) in which one or both drivers were drunk, single-motor-vehicle accidents in which the driver was drunk, and possibly accidents in which a motor vehicle hit a pedestrian or a person on a bicycle.

A second problem with the student’s summary has to do with what “drunk” means. What do the graph makers mean by “drunk”? How did the people who recorded the data know that a driver was drunk? How were the data gathered?

cont’d

131


It seems reasonable to expect that there are data for every motor vehicle accident in which there was a fatality.

However, how did the people who recorded the data determine the number of such accidents in which at least one driver was drunk? Did a sobriety test or a blood test show that the person was drunk?

Furthermore, the definition of drunk varies from state to state: In some states, a person with a blood alcohol level of 0.08% is considered drunk, whereas in other states the blood alcohol level has to be 0.10%.

cont’d

132


Now let us examine the student’s use of the word dramatically to describe the change in fatalities. Look back at the vertical axis of the graph—what does the jagged line just below 30% mean?

It means that this is a truncated graph—that is, the authors of this graph deleted the 0%–30% interval. Why might someone want to truncate a graph?

cont’d

133


Sometimes graphs are truncated to save space. However, sometimes they are truncated to distort the data. Let us see how the graph would look if it had not been truncated (Figure 7.23).

cont’d

Percent of fatal accidents involving alcoholFigure 7.23

134


How does the decline in the percentage of drunk drivers in fatal accidents look now?

cont’d

Percent of fatal accidents involving alcohol

Figure 7.23

135


As you can see, the decline does not seem so great in the untruncated graph. The actual percent decrease from 53 to 34 is about 36% (that is,

Which graph would you have picked if you were working for a beer company preparing an advertisement showing that drunk driving is on the decline? What if you were a member of SADD (Students Against Drunk Driving)?

cont’d

136


What do the numbers mean? Below are two of many possible responses.

• In 2004, 36% of all fatal motor vehicle accidents involved a drunk driver.

• In 2004, of every 100 fatal motor vehicle accidents, 36 involved a drunk driver.

Further questions Finally, let us examine additional questions that we might ask. What do you predict has happened since 2004? Do you think the percentage has leveled off or has continued to decline? Where could you go to find out? What other data would you like to see?

cont’d

137

Investigation H – Hitting the Books

Take a few moments to examine Figure 7.24. A critical aspect of this examination is asking yourself questions about conclusions, construction of the graph, and reliability/validity. Write your responses to these questions

Figure 7.24

138

Investigation H – Discussion

Describing the graph Critique the following two statements, which represent conclusions that people have made from this graph.

• Barely one-third of college students study more than 10 hours per week.

• Most college students average less than 2 hours a day on homework.

The first conclusion is simply taken straight from the graph: “Barely ” is consistent with 34%. The second statement represents a valid interpretation of the graph, because less than half of the students spend more than 10 hours a week.

139


What do the data mean? Now let us look beyond the first impressions to examine what the data mean.

If the data included both part-time and full-time students, the number of hours reported would naturally go down. (Why?) Finally, how we ask the question has an influence on our data.

You might want to replicate this study on your own campus and compare the results of asking the question in two different ways.

cont’d

140


Choice of graph The makers of this graph chose a circle graph. What other choices would be appropriate, or is the circle graph the “best” choice?

Here it is a matter of personal preference. Circle graphs work well when we are looking at parts of wholes. In this case, the whole represents all students, and the makers of the graph have divided the whole into three subsets. However, using a bar graph would not be wrong.

cont’d

copyright © cengage learning. all rights reserved. chapter 7 uncertainty: data and chance

Documents

data slide

data raw data

useful data

accurate data

categorical data

set of data

data arent useful

original question