copyright 2012 1 {.html,.ppt} bled econference opening plenary – 18 june 2012 the first 25 years

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http://www.anu.edu.au/Roger.Clarke/......../EC/Bled25P {.html, .ppt}

Bled eConference Opening Plenary – 18 June 2012

The First 25 Years of the Bled eConference

Roger ClarkeXamax Consultancy, Canberra

Visiting Professor in Computer Science, ANUand in Cyberspace Law & Policy, UNSW

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QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor




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In 1987-88• Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital

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The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human

http://www.nytimes.com/1987/07/12/world/and-baby-makes-five-billion-un-hails-a-yugoslav-infant.html

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The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth humanThe world population is now 7 billion

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• In Chile, the FIFA World Youth Championship was won by Yugoslavia (incl. Boban, Prosinecki and Suker, but without Boksic, Jugovic and Mihajlovic)

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• The top single was by Bon Jovi, and U2 had its first hit

• The Eurovision Song Contest had 22 contestants – now 42

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• The top single was by Bon Jovi, and U2 had its first hit

• The Eurovision Song Contest had 22 contestants – now 42

• The European Community comprised 11 countriesThe EU - formed only in 1993 - is now 17 countries

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• The top single was by Bon Jovi, and U2 had its first hit • The Eurovision Song Contest had 22 contestants – now

42• The European Community comprised 11 countries

The EU - formed only in 1993 - is now 17 countries• Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher were in power• Mikhail Gorbachev came to power only in October 1988

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June 19892nd Bled Conference

November 1989Fall of the Berlin

Wall

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June 19892nd Bled Conference

November 1989Fall of the Berlin

Wall

June 19914th Bled eConference

June-July 1991Desetdnevna Vojna

(Ten-Day War)



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The Early Bled eConferences Electronic Data Interchange (EDI)

The exchange of documents in standardised electronic form, between organisations, in an automated manner, directly from a computer application in one organisation to an application in another

Admin and accounting applications (e.g. invoices)Operational uses (purchase orders, acknowledgements)

Batch data transfers, not online; limited strategic impact

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ICT in 1987-88







IBM PS/2

Mac Plus (1MB)Hard-drive option

HP 110

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ICT in 1987-88• Apple Mac and GUIs

had existed for 3-4 years

• MS Windows had just been released, but was primitive and would remain so for another 7 years

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• Analogue cellular mobile was new, and digital (2G) was several years away

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• 2400bps Modems• BBS



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• 2400bps Modems• BBS

• 10Mbps Ethernet• Built-in, plug-and-play

300Kbps Appletalk • IBM PCs just

beginning to talk to Minis



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Inter-Organisational Systems in 1987-88

• Airline Reservation Systems (from late 1960s)• ATMs (from early 1970s)• SWIFT (from 1977)• EFT/POS (from mid-1980s)

• FMIS remained almost entirely intra-organisational (The term ERP wasn’t even coined until 1990)

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Information SystemsA Definition

The multi-disciplinary study of:• the collection, processing and storage of data• the use of information by individuals and

groups, especially within organisational contexts

• artefacts and technologies that are applied to those activities

• the impact, implications and management of those artefacts and technologies

http://www.rogerclarke.com/SOS/ISDefn.html, 1990

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Intra-Organisatio

nal Systems



http://www.rogerclarke.com/SOS/ISDefn.html, 1990

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Strategic IS Theory

• Strategic IS Theory only emerged 198-1985• Proposition: Smart decisions enable

corporations to gain decisive and sustainable competitive advantage

• Examples:• airline reservation systems (1968)• IBM’s unbundling of software (1969)• IBM PC (1981)• Ethernet (Early 1980s)• GUIs (mid-1980s)

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The Scope of the Bled Conferences

Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) 1988-1992 (5)

EDI and Inter-Organizational Systems 1993-1995 (3)

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Inter-Organisational

Systems

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor


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Multi-Organisational

Systems

OrganisationalInformationSystem












Inter-Organisational

Systems

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StarNetwor

ks

Huband

SpokeSystems











Hub

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The Scope of the Bled Conferences

Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) 1988-1992 (5)

EDI and Inter-Organizational Systems 1993-1995 (3)

––– LANs mainstreamed, Internet arrival –––

Electronic Commerce 1996-2004 (9)

eConference 2005-2012 (8)

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Cascading Systems

MaterialManufacturer

ClothingManufacturer

Wholesaler

Retailer

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Extra-Organisational

Systems

http://www.rogerclarke.com/SOS/PaperExtraOrgSys.htmlProc. IFIP World Congress, Madrid (September 1992)

ATMs, EFTPOS, ...

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Systems

... Add Mobile Devices ...

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Systems

... AddSyndication

http://www.rogerclarke.com/SOS/PaperExtraOrgSys.htmlIFIP World Congress, September 1992

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Strategic IS Theory Extended• Each decision by an individual organisation is

just one small intervention within a complex system• Significant, sustainable competitive advantage from

strategic decisions is uncommon; it’s mostly luck

• In many contexts, ‘strategic’ does not involve competitiveness, e.g. public sector, not-for-profits

• Many strategic interventions for competitive advantage build on collaborative arrangements, incl. strategic partnerships, common infrastructure

• Many strategic interventions are much more valuable to the system as a whole than to the organisation

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The Bled eConference ‘Middle Period’1996-2004

• Internet Services Provides exhibited great creativity• eCommerce saw many experiments, some successful• eGovernment emerged• Internet Services investors showed enormous naivety

and the Internet Services ‘boom’ turned to ‘bust’• Researchers had no difficulty finding interesting

companies, sectors and systems to study• Success and failure factors were studied, seeking

ways to overcome the impediments to adoption

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The Bled eConference ThemesBled Electronic Commerce Conference

1996 (09) – Electronic Commerce for Trade Efficiency and Effectiveness

1997 (10) – Global Business in Practice1998 (11) – Electronic Commerce in the

Information Society1999 (12) – Global Networked

Organisations2000 (13) – Electronic Commerce:

The End of the Beginning2001 (14) – e-Everything: e-Commerce,

e-Government, e-Household, e-Democracy

2002 (15) – eReality: Constructing the eEconomy

2003 (16) – eTransformation2004 (17) – eGlobal

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The Bled eConference ‘Mature Period’2005-20??

• The strong focus on organisational applications and internationalisation has been somewhat moderated

• As early as 1998, 'the Information Society' theme• In 2001, the scope was declared to be 'e-

Everything' incl. e-Commerce, e-Government, e-Household, e-Democracy

• In 2005, a further adaption to the overall theme• ‘eConference’ reflects comprehensive scope,

encompassing all aspects of electronic interaction

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The Bled eConference ThemesBled Electronic Commerce Conference

1996 (09) – Electronic Commerce for Trade Efficiency and Effectiveness

1997 (10) – Global Business in Practice1998 (11) – Electronic Commerce in the

Information Society1999 (12) – Global Networked

Organisations2000 (13) – Electronic Commerce:

The End of the Beginning2001 (14) – e-Everything: e-Commerce,

e-Government, e-Household, e-Democracy

2002 (15) – eReality: Constructing the eEconomy

2003 (16) – eTransformation2004 (17) – eGlobal

Bled eConference

2005 (18) – eIntegration in Action2006 (19) – eValues2007 (20) – eMergence: Merging and

Emerging Technologies, Processes, and Institutions

2008 (21) – eCollaboration: Overcoming Boundaries Through Multi-Channel Interaction

2009 (22) – eEnablement: Facilitating an Open, Effective and Representative eSociety

2010 (23) – eTrust: Implications for the Individual, Enterprises and Society

2011 (24) – eFuture: Solutions for the Individual, Organisations and Society

2012 (25) – eDependability

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The Bled eConferenceCritical Success Factors

• Industry Stream, with multiple parallel sessions(now the Business and Government Panel Track)

• Business Meetings of International, Regional and National Groups

• Well-Reputed Supporters, esp. in early years– Milt Jenkins, Doug Vogel, Don McCubbrey

• Research Stream, with multiple parallel sessions

• Student ePrototype Bazaars • Graduate Student Consortia

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Conference Leadership• Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of

Maribor• Conference Chair – Joze Gricar (21), Andreja

Pucihar (4)Consistency, Continuity in theme, flavour, style and values

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Conference Leadership• Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Maribor• Conference Chair – Joze Gricar (21), Andreja Pucihar (4)

Consistency, Continuity in theme, flavour, style and values

• Research Stream ChairDiversity, Adaptation to the conference community's interests

• Over 18 years, 16 different individuals have performed the Research Stream Chair role – 9 male, 7 female

• Chairs’ affiliations in 9 different countries – Europe (6) – Germany 5, Greece, the UK, the Netherlands, Finland, Switzerland, and the USA, Australia, and Hong Kong

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Papers and Authorship• >1,000 papers, >2,000 authors• Since 1995, 773 refereed papers, 1,800 authors• 50 countries on the research program:

Australia 389 (22%), Netherlands 260 (15%), Germany 234 (13%), UK 100, Finland 95, USA 71, Ireland 68, Greece 66, Switzerland 61

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Papers and Authorship• >1,000 papers, >2,000 authors• Since 1995, 773 refereed papers, 1,800 authors• 50 countries on the research program:

Australia 389 (22%), Netherlands 260 (15%), Germany 234 (13%), UK 100, Finland 95, USA 71, Ireland 68, Greece 66, Switzerland 61

• On average, on each Research Stream program:• 17 countries (range 11 to 23)

55 universities (range 24 to 94) 9 authors not academics (range 2 to 19)

• 11 papers multi-institution (c. 25%) (range 4 to 21)• 7 papers multi-country (c. 15%) (range 1

to 13)

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Bled 25Special Section

(1)Reflect on the 24 Bled conferences held to date

(2)Focus on a persistent theme(3)Be future-oriented

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Bled 25Special Section

(1)Reflect on the 24 Bled conferences held to date(2)Focus on a persistent theme(3)Be future-oriented

• 27 expressions of interest• 9 contributions survived the review process• 5 by sole authors and 4 by teams of 2 to 8

people• 21 authors, whose affiliations are in 8 countries

Australia, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the UK, the USA, Vietnam

• Complemented by an IFIP WG8.4 Session

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Technologies as Themesat the Bled eConference

• Mainframes, Minis, Micros PCs, LaptopsMobiles, Tablets

• PPNs and VANs• LANs• The Internet and VPNs• Cellular Networks

But Technology has never been the primary focus

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Categories of eBusiness (60%)EDI 1995-1998 41

eCommerce (14%) 1996-2001 140 eMarkets, Directories, Auctions 1998-2002 51

SMEs 1998-2002 53

MCommerce, Mobile Apps 2002-2009 56

eMarketing, CRM, 2003-2011 55

Consumer BehavioureGovernment 2004-2008 35eHealth 2006, 2011 32Other (8 clusters) 108

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Corporate Perspectives (22%)

Inter-Organisational Systems 1995-1998 24 Supply Chain, ECR, Intermediaries 1998-2003 37 Business Models 2003-2005, 2009 29 BPR, Transformation,

Alignment, Integration 2003-2007 42 Strategic Alliance, Bus Networks,

Virtual Organisations 2004, 2007-2009 37 Other (4 clusters) 47

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Research Topics (19%)

Adoption, Impediments, Success Factors 2001-2007 52

Trust, Reputation, Risk 2001-2004, 2010-11 37 Other (7 clusters) 96

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Special Section – The Nine PapersMeta-Analyses 1. The First 25 Years of the Bled eConference: Themes and Impacts – Roger Clarke

2. Automatic Semantic Trend Analysis of the Bled eConference: 2001-2011 – Heinz Dreher

Categories of eBusiness

3. The Use of ICT to support Regional Developments: Contributions from the Bled eConference – Hans-Dieter Zimmermann

4. From MCom Visions to Mobile Value Services – Christer Carlsson and Pirkko Walden

Corporate Perspectives

5. Business Models Tooling and a Research Agenda – Harry Bouwman , Mark De Reuver, Sam Solaimani, Dave Daas, Timber Haaker, Wil Janssen, Paul Iske, Bastiaan Walenkamp

6. 25 Years of Research into the Management of eTechnology Projects – Julie Cameron

7. Inter-organizational Information Systems: From Strategic Systems to Information Infrastructures – Stefan Klein, Kai Reimers, Robert B. Johnston

8. Generating Procedural Controls to Facilitate Trade: The Role of Control in the Absence of Trust – Roger W.H. Bons, Ronald M. Lee, Vu Hoang Nguyen

Research Topics

9. User Acceptance of Electronic Commerce: Contributions from the Bled eConference – Hans van der Heijden

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Impact Measures• >1,000 papers in hard-copy and CD

Proceedings

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Impact Measures• >1,000 papers in hard-copy and CD Proceedings• 550 papers online at the Conference web-site

and in the AIS eLibrary• 53 papers (7%) in 13 Special Sections of IJEC and EM

plus many more independently, in other journals• Google Citations

• of Bled Papers c. 3,500• of Bled-derived Special Issue Papers, c. 2,000

• >10,000 downloads from AIS eLibrary alone, plus conference web-site and uni and personal repositories

• Graduate Student Consortia, Student ePrototype Bazaars, Research Collaborations, informal exchange

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From Past History on to Future History Zimmerman – Proposes more systematic study of eRegion initiatives and of success and failure factorsCarlsson and Walden – See mobile commerce at last maturing towards mobile value systemsBouwman et al. – Foresee improvements in tools to support the integration of business model analysis with other notions, especially business process analysis and enterprise architectureCameron – Shows the need for much more attention to the social and organisational factors that primarily determine project outcomesBons et al. – Suggest more imaginative balancing between blind trust and controls, in order to overcome impediments to adoptionKlein et al. – See the longstanding focus on inter-org’l systems (IOS) gravitating towards an information infrastructure (II) perspectiveVan der Heijden – Sees user acceptance research moving from surveys of what people say they do, towards observation of what people actually do

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Challenges for the Bled eConference beyond 2012

eTechnology• Virtualisation of Data Processing and Storage• Cameras, smart meters, drones, ...

perhaps an 'Internet of Things', even ‘Smart Dust’• Internet Traffic Monitoring (‘Deep Packet Inspection’)• Biometrics

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eTechnology• Virtualisation of Data Processing and Storage• Cameras, smart meters, drones, perhaps an 'Internet of Things', even ‘Smart

Dust’• Internet Traffic Monitoring (‘Deep Packet Inspection’)• Biometrics

eTechnology-in-use• Virtualisation of Organisational Structures and

Employment• Data Gathering, incl.

Locations, Communications, Content Access, Social Networks

• Denial of Anonymity and Multiple Identities, Insecure Sig Keys

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eTechnology• Virtualisation of Data Processing and Storage• Cameras, smart meters, drones, perhaps an 'Internet of Things', even ‘Smart Dust’• Internet Traffic Monitoring (‘Deep Packet Inspection’)• Biometrics

eTechnology-in-use• Virtualisation of Organisational Structures and Employment• Data Gathering – Locations, Communications, Content Access, Social Networks• Denial of Anonymity, Denial of Multiple Identities, Insecure Signature Keys

eTechnology Politics• Dominance of economic drivers over social needs• Dominance of corporate and government interests

over consumer and citizen interests • The Social Media Business Model is Anti-Social• Control over the Internet by Governments and the ITU

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Diversity of Scope, and of Units of Study

• Economic Perspective:• Corporation / Government Agency• Industry Segment / Sector• Local Region• Nation• Bloc / Region (EU, NAFTA, ASEAN)

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Diversity of Scope, and of Units of Study

• Economic Perspective:• Corporation / Government Agency• Industry Segment / Sector• Local Region• Nation• Bloc / Region (EU, NAFTA, ASEAN)

• Human Perspective:• Not-for-profit / NGO / Association• Community / Segment• Social Group• Individual

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Information SystemsA Definition

The multi-disciplinary study of:• the collection, processing and storage of data• the use of information by individuals and

groups, especially within organisational contexts

• artefacts and technologies that are applied to those activities

• the impact, implications and management of those artefacts and technologies

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The Dangers of Empricism

• Empiricism says ‘base interpretations on observations’

• Empiricists have to wait for phenomena to stabilise before they can deliver any information of value

• So empiricism is inherently backwards-looking.‘Old-world research’ describes past realities

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The Dangers of Empricism• Empiricism = ‘base interpretations on observations’• Empiricists have to wait for phenomena to stabilise

before they can deliver any information of value• So empiricism is inherently backwards-looking.

‘Old-world research’ describes past realities

• The subject-matter of the Bled eConference is dynamic• The style of the Bled eConference is instrumentalist• To be design-oriented, authors have to take risks, and

carefully balance academic rigour with relevance

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The Bled eConferenceOutstanding Paper Award

The Criteria

Perspective The Quality Sought

Real-World Relevance

Contribution Ambition

Academic Rigour

Presentation Ease of Access

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Conclusions• The Bled eConference has continually adapted

to rapid changes in context and needs• Its theme and scope are comprehensive and up-to-date,

encompassing all aspects of electronic interaction• It is relevant because of its instrumentalist tradition• It has a substantial community• The Bled eConference will continue to be highly

valuable as we confronts the challenges of designing and managing electronic interactions among organisations, among people, and between organisations and people

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http://www.anu.edu.au/Roger.Clarke/......../EC/Bled25P {.html, .ppt}

Bled eConference Opening Plenary – 18 June 2012

The First 25 Years of the Bled eConference

Roger ClarkeXamax Consultancy, Canberra

Visiting Professor in Computer Science, ANUand in Cyberspace Law & Policy, UNSW

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Meta-Analyses of the Bled Corpus

• 'Bled eConference Themes and Impacts'Roger Clarke

• 'Automatic Semantic Trend Analysis'Heinz Dreher

• application of a semantic analysis tool to the full-text of each set of refereed proceedings 2001-2011, generating measures of the occurrence of ConceptKeywords, within-year, and across the period

• enables detection and analysis of changing emphases, such as the patterns of references to people as users, participants, employees, team-members and objects

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Bled25 Special SectionCategories of eBusiness

• 'eRegions' – Zimmerman• Contribution of ‘e’ to economic and social

development within geographical regions, both within countries (e.g. , large and thinly-populated rural areas), and across national borders (e.g. Adriatic ports, the Bodenseee, Basque and many other areas)

• Considerable contributions of meetings, panels and workshops to collaborations

• More research focus needed, through systematic study of initiatives and of success and failure factors

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Bled25 Special SectionCategories of eBusiness

• 'Mobile Commerce, Mobile Value Services’ – Carlsson & Walden

• Note the slowness of take-up during the last decade, particularly of the more advanced services

• From messaging, via data services to transaction services, but the focus switches to mobile value services and particularly knowledge mobilisation

• Critical design factors that have underpinned previous successful product launches offer insights into design factors for the next round of products

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Bled25 Special SectionCorporate Perspectives

• 'Tools to Support Business Models' – Bouwman et al.road-mapping to cope with transitions, stress-testing, agile engineering, financial decision-making support

• The threads of previous lines of development in business modelling theory weave through the history of the Bled eConference, and the paper suggests that this is likely to be the case in future Bled conference programs as well

• Now need more effective combination of Business Models with Business Process Analysis and Enterprise Architecture Approaches

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• 'Project Management' – Cameron • Factor Research (incl. CSF)• Engineering tradition (incl. tools, life-cycle notions)• Social Science tradition (org’l structures, processes)

• Disappointingly slow adaptation of eTechnology project management techniques, from origins in intra-organisational systems, to the much more challenging contexts of inter-organisational information systems (IOIS) and extra-organisational systems (EOS)

• Decreasing emphasis on the engineering tradition, increasing attention to the social and organizational factors that primarily determine project outcomes

• Even more emphasis is needed on multiple levels of analysis and on multi-disciplinary research

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• 'IOIS and Information Infrastructure' – Klein at al.• Progressive shift in focus in IOIS research, towards

an information infrastructure (II) perspective• The unit of study began as the individual

organisation, but may now be the set of collaborating organisations, or the integral collaborative whole

• Underlines the value of the Bled eConference not only as a locus for informal meetings but also for disciplined face-to-face discussion, theory criticism and extension, and the conception of research projects

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• 'Procedural Controls to Facilitate Trade' – Bons et al.

• Trust by participants in multi-party electronic activities

• information infrastructure for international trade and the criticality of controls as a means of achieving – or of avoiding the need for – trust in international trade procedures

• The team’s 'deontic' approach enables formal modelling of the means of identifying and implementing the necessary controls, such as evidence of permissions, rights, obligations, prohibitions and waivers

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Bled25 Special SectionResearch Topics

• 'User Acceptance' – van der Heijden • During 2001-2003, existing theories based on the

Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) were applied• During 2004-2007, existing theories were extended,

particularly in the trust and privacy areas• During 2008-2011, Bled delegates have recognised the

limitations of the traditional models, moved beyond them, and adopted alternative theoretical approaches

• van der Heijden's paper anticipates fewer surveys of what people say they do, and more observation of what people actually do, including use of experimental method in order to achieve more control, and improved insights

copyright 2012 1 {.html,.ppt} bled econference opening plenary – 18 june 2012 the first 25 years

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