copyright © 2009 pearson prentice hall. all rights reserved. chapter 9 transaction exposure

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved.

Chapter 9

Transaction Exposure

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 9-2

Learning Objectives

• Distinguish between the three major foreign exchange exposures experienced by firms

• Identify foreign exchange transaction exposure• Analyze the pros and cons of hedging foreign

exchange transaction exposure• Identify the alternatives available to a firm for

managing a large and significant transaction exposure

• Evaluate the institutional practices and concerns of foreign exchange risk management


Foreign Exchange Exposure

• Foreign exchange exposure is a measure of the potential for a firm’s profitability, net cash flow, and market value to change because of a change in exchange rates– These three components (profits, cash flow and market value)

are the key financial elements of how we view the relative success or failure of a firm

– While finance theories tell us that cash flows matter and accounting does not, we know that currency-related gains and losses can have destructive impacts on reported earnings – which are fundamental to the markets opinion of that company



• Types of foreign exchange exposure– Transaction Exposure – measures changes in the value of

outstanding financial obligations incurred prior to a change in exchange rates but not due to be settled until after the exchange rate changes

– Operating Exposure – also called economic exposure, measures the change in the present value of the firm resulting from any change in expected future operating cash flows caused by an unexpected change in exchange rates



– Translation Exposure – also called accounting exposure, is the potential for accounting derived changes in owner’s equity to occur because of the need to “translate” financial statements of foreign subsidiaries into a single reporting currency for consolidated financial statements

– Tax Exposure – the tax consequence of foreign exchange exposure varies by country, however as a general rule only realized foreign losses are deductible for purposes of calculating income taxes


Exhibit 9.1 Conceptual Comparison of Transaction, Operating, and Translation Foreign Exchange Exposure


Why Hedge?

• Hedging protects the owner of an asset (future stream of cash flows) from loss

• However, it also eliminates any gain from an increase in the value of the asset hedged against

• Since the value of a firm is the net present value of all expected future cash flows, it is important to realize that variances in these future cash flows will affect the value of the firm and that at least some components of risk (currency risk) can be hedged against


Why Hedge - the Pros & Cons

• Opponents of hedging give the following reasons:– Shareholders are more capable of diversifying risk than the

management of a firm; if stockholders do not wish to accept the currency risk of any specific firm, they can diversify their portfolios to manage that risk

– Currency risk management does not increase the expected cash flows of a firm; currency risk management normally consumes resources thus reducing cash flow

– Management often conducts hedging activities that benefit management at the expense of shareholders



• Opponents of hedging give the following reasons (continued):– Managers cannot outguess the market; if and when markets are in

equilibrium with respect to parity conditions, the expected NPV of hedging is zero

– Management’s motivation to reduce variability is sometimes driven by accounting reasons; management may believe that it will be criticized more severely for incurring foreign exchange losses in its statements than for incurring similar or even higher cash cost in avoiding the foreign exchange loss

– Efficient market theorists believe that investors can see through the “accounting veil” and therefore have already factored the foreign exchange effect into a firm’s market valuation



• Proponents of hedging give the following reasons:– Reduction in risk in future cash flows improves the planning

capability of the firm– Reduction of risk in future cash flows reduces the likelihood

that the firm’s cash flows will fall below a necessary minimum

– Management has a comparative advantage over the individual investor in knowing the actual currency risk of the firm

– Markets are usually in disequilibirum because of structural and institutional imperfections


Exhibit 9.2 Impact of Hedging on the Expected Cash Flows of the Firm


Measurement of Transaction Exposure

• Transaction exposure measures gains or losses that arise from the settlement of existing financial obligations, namely– Purchasing or selling on credit goods or services when prices

are stated in foreign currencies– Borrowing or lending funds when repayment is to be made in

a foreign currency– Being a party to an unperformed forward contract and – Otherwise acquiring assets or incurring liabilities

denominated in foreign currencies


Purchasing or Selling on Open Account

• Suppose Trident Corporation sells merchandise on open account to a Belgian buyer for €1,800,000 payable in 60 days

• Further assume that the spot rate is $1.2000/€ and Trident expects to exchange the euros for €1,800,000 x $1.2000/€ = $2,160,000 when payment is received– Transaction exposure arises because of the risk that Trident will

something other than $2,160,000 expected– If the euro weakens to $.1000/€, then Trident will receive $1,980,000– If the euro strengthens to $1.3000/€, then Trident will receive

$2,340,000


Purchasing or Selling on Open Account

• Trident might have avoided transaction exposure by invoicing the Belgian buyer in US dollars, but this might have lead to Trident not being able to book the sale

• Even if the Belgian buyer agrees to pay in dollars, however, Trident has not eliminated transaction exposure, instead it has transferred it to the Belgian buyer whose dollar account payable has an unknown euro value in 60 days


Exhibit 9.3 The Life Span of a Transaction Exposure


Borrowing and Lending

• A second example of transaction exposure arises when funds are loaned or borrowed

• Example: PepsiCo’s largest bottler outside the US is located in Mexico, Grupo Embotellador de Mexico (Gemex)– On 12/94, Gemex had US dollar denominated debt of $264

million– The Mexican peso (Ps) was pegged at Ps$3.45/US$– On 12/22/94, the government allowed the peso to float due to

internal pressures and it sank to Ps$4.65/US$


Borrowing and Lending

• Gemex’s peso obligation now looked like this– Dollar debt mid-December, 1994:

• US$264,000,000 Ps$3.45/US$ = Ps$910,800,000

– Dollar debt in mid-January, 1995:• US$264,000,000 Ps$5.50/US$ = Ps$1,452,000,000

– Dollar debt increase measured in Ps • Ps$541,200,000

• Gemex’s dollar obligation increased by 59% due to transaction exposure


Other Causes of Transaction Exposure

• When a firm buys a forward exchange contract, it deliberately creates transaction exposure; this risk is incurred to hedge an existing exposure– Example: US firm wants to offset transaction

exposure of ¥100 million to pay for an import from Japan in 90 days

– Firm can purchase ¥100 million in forward market to cover payment in 90 days


Contractual Hedges

• Transaction exposure can be managed by contractual, operating, or financial hedges

• The main contractual hedges employ forward, money, futures and options markets

• Operating and financial hedges use risk-sharing agreements, leads and lags in payment terms, swaps, and other strategies

• A natural hedge refers to an offsetting operating cash flow, a payable arising from the conduct of business

• A financial hedge refers to either an offsetting debt obligation or some type of financial derivative such as a swap


Trident’s Transaction Exposure

• Maria Gonzalez, CFO of Trident, has just concluded a sale to Regency, a British firm, for £1,000,000

• The sale is made in March for settlement due in three months time, June– Assumptions

• Spot rate is $1.7640/£• 3 month forward rate is $1.7540/£ (a 2.2676% discount)• Trident’s cost of capital is 12.0%• UK 3 month borrowing rate is 10.0% p.a.• UK 3 month investing rate is 8.0% p.a.



– Assumptions• US 3 month borrowing rate is 8.0% p.a.

• US 3 month investing rate is 6.0% p.a.

• June put option in OTC market for £1,000,000; strike price $1.75; 1.5% premium

• Trident’s foreign exchange advisory service forecasts future spot rate in 3 months to be $1.7600/£

• Trident operates on thin margins and Maria wants to secure the most amount of US dollars; her budget rate (lowest acceptable amount) is $1.7000/£



• Maria faces four possibilities:– Remain unhedged– Hedge in the forward market– Hedge in the money market– Hedge in the options market



• Unhedged position– Maria may decide to accept the transaction risk– If she believes that the future spot rate will be

$1.76/£, then Trident will receive £1,000,000 x $1.76/£ = $1,760,000 in 3 months time

– However, if the future spot rate is $1.65/£, Trident will receive only $1,650,000 well below the budget rate



• Forward Market hedge– A forward hedge involves a forward or futures contract and a

source of funds to fulfill the contract– The forward contract is entered at the time the A/R is created,

in this case in March– When this sale is booked, it is recorded at the spot rate. – In this case the A/R is recorded at a spot rate of $1.7640/£,

thus $1,764,000 is recorded as a sale for Trident– If Trident does not have an offsetting A/P in the same

amount, then the firm is considered uncovered



• Forward Market hedge– Should Maria want to cover this exposure with a forward contract,

then she will sell £1,000,000 forward today at the 3 month rate of $1.7540/£

– She is now “covered” and Trident no longer has any transaction exposure

– In 3 months, Trident will received £1,000,000 and exchange those pounds at $1.7540/£ receiving $1,754,000

– This sum is $6,000 less than the uncertain $1,760,000 expected from the unhedged position

– This would be recorded in Trident’s books as a foreign exchange loss of $10,000 ($1,764,000 as booked, $1,754,000 as settled)



• Money Market hedge– A money market hedge also includes a contract and

a source of funds, similar to a forward contract– In this case, the contract is a loan agreement

• The firm borrows in one currency and exchanges the proceeds for another currency

• Hedges can be left “open” (i.e. no investment) or “closed” (i.e. investment)



• Money Market hedge– To hedge in the money market, Maria will borrow

pounds in London, convert the pounds to dollars and repay the pound loan with the proceeds from the sale

• To calculate how much to borrow, Maria needs to discount the PV of the £1,000,000 to today

• £1,000,000/1.025 = £975,610• Maria should borrow £975,610 today and in 3 months

time repay this amount plus £24,390 in interest (£1,000,000) from the proceeds of the sale


Account receivable £1,000,000

£1,000,000

Bank loan (principal) £ 975,610

Interest payable 24,390

£1,000,000

Assets Liabilities and Net Worth


• Money Market hedge– Trident would exchange the £975,610 at the spot rate of

$1.7640/£ and receive $1,720,976 at once

– This hedge creates a pound denominated liability that is offset with a pound denominated asset thus creating a balance sheet hedge



• In order to compare the forward hedge with the money market hedge, Maria must analyze the use of the loan proceeds– Remember that the loan proceeds may be used

today, but the funds for the forward contract may not– Because the funds are relatively certain, comparison

is possible in order to make a decision– Three logical choices exist for an assumed

investment rate for the next 3 months


Received today Invested in Rate Future value in 3 months

$1,720,976 Treasury bill 6% p.a. or 1.5%/quarter$1,746,791$1,720,976 Debt cost 8% p.a. or 2.0%/quarter $1,755,396

$1,720,976 Cost of capital 12% p.a. or 3.0%/quarter $1,772,605


• First, if Trident is cash rich the loan proceeds might be invested at the US rate of 6.0% p.a.

• Second, Maria could use the loan proceeds to substitute an equal dollar loan that Trident would have otherwise taken for working capital needs at a rate of 8.0% p.a.

• Third, Maria might invest the loan proceeds in the firm itself in which case the cost of capital is 12.0% p.a.



• Because the proceeds in 3 months from the forward hedge will be $1,754,000, the money market hedge is superior to the forward hedge if Maria used the proceeds to replace a dollar loan (8%) or conduct general business operations (12%)

• The forward hedge would be preferable if Maria were to just invest the loan proceeds (6%)

• We will assume she uses the cost of capital as the reinvestment rate


0.0192r

$1,754,000 r)(1 $1,720,976

proceeds) (forward rate)(1 proceeds)(Loan

==+=+

7.68% 100 x 90

360 x 0192.0 =

To convert this 3 month rate to an annual rate,


• A breakeven investment rate can be calculated in order to forgo numerous calculations and still aid Maria in her decision



• In other words, if Maria can invest the loan proceeds at a rate equal to or greater than 7.68% p.a. then the money market hedge will be superior to the forward hedge

• The following chart shows the value of Trident’s A/R over a range of possible spot rates both uncovered and covered using the previously mentioned alternatives


Exhibit 9.4 Valuation of Cash Flows by Hedging Alternative for Trident


$26,460 $1.7640 x 0.015 x £1,000,000

option ofcost rate)(spot x (premium) x option) of (Size

==


• Option market hedge– Maria could also cover the £1,000,000 exposure by

purchasing a put option. This allows her to speculate on the upside potential for appreciation of the pound while limiting her downside risk

• Given the quote earlier, Maria could purchase 3 month put option at an ATM strike price of $1.75/£ and a premium of 1.5%

• The cost of this option would be



• Because we are using future value to compare the various hedging alternatives, it is necessary to project the cost of the option in 3 months forward

• Using a cost of capital of 12% p.a. or 3.0% per quarter, the premium cost of the option as of June would be

$26,460 1.03 = $27,254

• Since the upside potential is unlimited, Trident would not exercise its option at any rate above $1.75/£ and would purchase pounds on the spot market

• If for example, the spot rate of $1.76/£ materializes, Trident would exchange pounds on the spot market to receive £1,000,000 $1.76/£ = $1,760,000 less the premium of the option ($27,254) netting $1,732,746



• Unlike the unhedged alternative, Maria has limited downside with the option

• Should the pound depreciate below $1.75/£, Maria would exercise her option and exchange her £1,000,000 at $1.75/£ receiving $1,750,000– Less the premium of the option, Maria nets $1,722,746– Although this downside is less than that of the forward or

money market hedge, the upside potential is not limited



• As with the forward and money market hedges, Maria can also calculate her breakeven price on the option– The upper bound of the range is determined by

comparison of the forward rate• The pound must appreciate above $1.754/£ forward rate plus the

cost of the option, $0.0273/£, to $1.7813/£

– The lower bound of the range is determined in a similar manner

• If the pound depreciates below $1.75/£, the net proceeds would be $1.75/£ less the cost of $0.0273/£ or $1.722/£


Exhibit 9.5 Trident’s Hedging Alternatives, Including an ATM Put Option


Put Option Strike Price ATM Option $1.75/£

Option cost (future cost) $27,254

Proceeds if exercised $1,750,000

Minimum net proceeds $1,722,746

Maximum net proceeds unlimited

Breakeven spot rate (upside) $1.7813/£

Breakeven spot rate (downside) $1.7221/£



Strategy Choice and Outcome

• Trident, like all firms, must decide on a strategy to undertake before the exchange rate changes but how will Maria choose among the strategies?

• Two criteria can be utilized to help Maria choose her strategy– Risk tolerance - of the firm,as expressed in its stated policies

and

– Viewpoint – Maria’s own view on the expected direction and distance of the exchange rate



• After all the strategies have been explained, Trident now needs to compare the alternatives and their outcomes in order to choose a strategy

• There were four alternatives available to manage this account receivable and Maria has a budget rate at which she cannot fall below on this transaction


Hedging Strategy Outcome/Payout

Remain uncovered Unknown

Forward Contract hedge @ $1.754/£ $1,754,000

Money market hedge @ 8% p.a. $1,755,396

Money market hedge @ 12% p.a. $1,772,605

Put option hedge @ strike $1.75/£

Minimum if exercised $1,722,746

Maximum if not exercised Unlimited



Managing an Account Payable

• Just as Maria’s alternatives for managing the receivable, the choices are the same for managing a payable– Assume that the £1,000,000 was an account payable in 90

days

• Remain unhedged – Trident could wait the 90 days and at that time exchange dollars for pounds to pay the obligation– If the spot rate is $1.76/£ then Trident would pay $1,760,000

but this amount is not certain



• Use a forward market hedge – Trident could purchase a forward contract locking in the $1.754/£ rate ensuring that their obligation will not be more than $1,754,000

• Use a money market hedge – this hedge is distinctly different for a payable than a receivable– Here Trident would exchange US dollars spot and invest

them for 90 days in pounds

– The pound obligation for Trident is now offset by a pound asset for Trident with matching maturity


6£980,392.1

36090

x .081

£1,000,000=

⎥⎦

⎤⎢⎣

⎡⎟⎠⎞

⎜⎝⎛+

This £980,392.16 would require $1,729,411.77 at the current spot rate


• Using a money market hedge – – To ensure that exactly £1,000,000 will be received in

90 days time, Maria discounts the principal by 8% p.a.


This is higher than the forward hedge of $1,754,000 thus unattractive


• Using a money market hedge – – Finally, carry the cost forward 90 days in order to

compare the payout from the money market hedge


$26,460 $1.75/£ x 0.015 x £1,000,000 =

Carried forward 90 days the premium amount is comes to $27,254


• Using an option hedge – instead of purchasing a put as with a receivable, Maria would want to purchase a call option on the payable– The terms of an ATM call option with strike price of

$1,75/£ would be a 1.5% premium


Exercise call option (£1,000,000 $1.75/£ $1,750,000

Call option premium (carried forward 90 days) $27,254

Total maximum expense of call option hedge $1,777,254


• Using an option hedge –– If the spot rate is less than $1.75/£ then the option would be

allowed to expire and the £1,000,000 would be purchased on the spot market

– If the spot rate rises above $1.75/£ then the option would be exercised and Trident would exchange the £1,000,000 at $1.75/£ less the option premium for the payable


Exhibit 9.6 Valuation of Hedging Alternatives for an Account Payable


Risk Management in Practice

• Which Goals?– The treasury function of most firms is usual considered a cost

center; it is not expected to add to the bottom line– However, in practice some firms’ treasuries have become

aggressive in currency management and act as profit centers

• Which Exposures?– Transaction exposures exist before they are actually booked

yet some firms do not hedge this backlog exposure– However, some firms are selectively hedging these backlog

exposures and anticipated exposures


Risk Management in Practice

• Which Contractual Hedges?– Transaction exposure management programs are

generally divided along an “option-line;” those which use options and those that do not

– Also, these programs vary in the amount of risk covered; these proportional hedges are policies that state which proportion and type of exposure is to be hedged by the treasury


Summary of Learning Objectives

• MNEs encounter three types of currency exposure: (1) transaction; (2) operating; and (3) translation exposure

• Transaction exposure measures gains or losses that arise from the settlement of financial obligations whose terms are stated in a foreign currency

• Operating exposure measures the change in the present value of the firm resulting from any change in future operating cash flows caused by an unexpected change in exchange rates

• Translation exposure is the potential for accounting-oriented changes in owner’s equity when a firm translates foreign subsidiaries’ financial statements to consolidated financial statements



• Transaction exposure arises from (1) purchasing or selling on credit and prices are stated in foreign currencies; (2) borrowing or lending funds when repayment is to be made in a foreign currency; (3) being party to an unperformed forward contract; and (4) otherwise acquiring assets or liabilities denominated in foreign currencies

• Considerable theoretical debate exists as to whether or not firms should hedge currency risk



• Transaction exposure can be managed by contractual techniques and certain operating strategies. Contractual techniques include forward contracts, money market and option hedges

• The choice of which hedge to use depends on the individual firm’s currency risk tolerance and its expectations of the probable movement of exchange rates over the transaction exposure period



• In general, if an exchange rate is expected to move in a firm’s favor, the preferred contractual hedges are those which allow the firm to participate in some of the upside potential, but protect it against adverse exchange rate movements

• In general, if an exchange rate is expected to move against the firm, the preferred contractual hedge is one which locks-in an exchange rate



• Risk management in practice requires a firm’s treasury department to identify its goals. Is the treasury a cost or a profit center?

• Treasury must also choose which contractual hedges it wishes to use and what proportion of the currency risk should be hedged. Additionally, treasury must determine whether the firm should buy and/or sell currency options, a strategy that has historically been risky for some firms and banks