copia de promedio movil

7/26/2019 Copia de Promedio Movil

1/17

numero de periodo k = 4

Semana Error |Error|

1 17

2 21

3 19

4 23 23 23

5 18 20.00 -2 2

6 16 20.25 -4.25 4.25

7 20 19.00 1 1

8 18 19.25 -1.25 1.25

9 22 18.00 4 4

10 20 19.00 1 1

11 15 20.00 -5 5

12 22 18.75 3.25 3.25

13 21 19.75 18.94 0.81

14 20 19.75

MAD 5.0 19.5

MSE 8.2

A!"ua#A"

$ro%e!!ion&"


2/17

529

4

18.0625

1

1.5625

16

1

25

10.5625

3.31

Error2

0 2 4 6 8 10 120

5

10

15

20

25

$romedio M'(i#

A!"ua#A"

$ro%e!!ion&"

Semana

)en"a* +,a#one*


3/17

14


4/17

k = 5


1 17

2 21

3 19

4 23

5 18

6 16 19.9 3.87 3.87 14.95

7 20 18.7 -1.33 1.33 1.78

8 18 18.9 0.87 0.87 0.75

9 22 18.5 -3.53 3.53 12.48

10 20 19.5 -0.53 0.53 0.28

11 15 19.9 4.87 4.87 23.68

12 22 18.5 -3.53 3.53 12.48

13 19.47

MAD 2.6 $eriodo )a#or $e*o

MSE 3.1 "-4 1 0.07

"-3 2 0.13

"-2 3 0.20

"-1 4 0.27

" 5 0.33

15

A!"ua#A"

$ro%e!!ion&"

Error2


5/17

20 0.2

10 0.3

30 0.5

20 22.00

10

0 2 4 6 8 100

5

10

15

20

25

$romedio M'(i# $onderado

A!"ua#A"

$ro%e!!ion&"

Semana

)en"a* +,a#one*


6/17

12 14


7/17

CON K IMPAR

k = 3


1 17

2 21 19 2.00 2.00 4.00

3 19 21 -2.00 3.00 4.00

4 23 20 3.00 1.00 9.00

5 18 19 -1.00 2.00 1.00

6 16 18 -2.00 2.00 4.00

7 20 18 2.00 2.00 4.00

8 18 20 -2.00 2.00 4.00

9 22 20 2.00 1.00 4.00

10 20 19 1.00 4.00 1.00

11 15 19 -4.00 0.00 16.00

12 22

13

MAD 1.9

MSE 2.3

CON K PAR

k = 4


1 17

2 21

3 19 20.125 -1.13 3.38 1.27

4 23 19.625 3.38 1.13 11.39

5 18 19.125 -1.13 2.63 1.27

6 16 18.625 -2.63 1.50 6.89

7 20 18.5 1.50 1.50 2.25

8 18 19.5 -1.50 2.63 2.25

9 22 19.375 2.63 0.75 6.89

10 20 19.25 0.75 0.00 0.56

11 15

12 22

13

MAD 1.7

MSE 2.0

A!"ua#A"

$ro%e!!ion&"

Error2

A!"ua#A" $ro%e!!ion&" Error2


8/17

0 2 4 6 8 100

5

10

15

20

25

$romedio M'(i# .en"rado

A!"ua#A"

$ro%e!!ion&"

Semana

)en"a* +,a#one*


9/17

12 14


10/17

a#p/a 0.2


1 17 17.00

2 21 17.00 4.0 4.0 16.0

3 19 17.80 1.2 1.2 1.4

4 23 18.04 5.0 5.0 24.6

5 18 19.03 -1.0 1.0 1.1

6 16 18.83 -2.8 2.8 8.0

7 20 18.26 1.7 1.7 3.0

8 18 18.61 -0.6 0.6 0.4

9 22 18.49 3.5 3.5 12.3

10 20 19.19 0.8 0.8 0.7

11 15 19.35 -4.4 4.4 18.9

12 22 18.48 3.5 3.5 12.4

13 19.18

MAD 2.6

MSE 3.0

A!"ua#A"

$ro%e!!ion&"

Error2


11/17

0 2 4 6 8 100

5

10

15

20

25

Sua(i0amien"o E1ponen!ia#

A!"ua#A"

$ro%e!!ion&"

Semana

)en"a* +,a#one*


12/17

12 14


13/17

x y

Semana A!"ua# %

1 21.6 21.6 1

2 22.9 45.8 4

3 25.5 76.5 9

4 21.9 87.6 16

5 23.9 119.5 256 27.5 165 36

7 31.5 220.5 49

8 29.7 237.6 64

9 28.6 257.4 81

10 31.4 314 100

Formulas Excel

$endien"e 1.1

n"er!ep"o 20.4

Manual n 10

$endien"e 1.1 promedio 5.5

n"er!ep"o 20.4 % promedio 26.45

2

)en"a* i!i!#e


14/17

0 2 4 6 8 10 120

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

= 1.1 20.4

Ao

"a* +1000*


15/17

A#p/a 0.250

e"a 0.100

t A(t) a^(t) b^(t) F(t)

:anuar% 1 28 28.00 1.35

&e;ruar% 2 27 28.76 1.29 29.35

Mar!/ 3 30 30.04 1.29 30.05Apri# 4 34 32.00 1.36 31.33

Ma% 5 32 33.02 1.32 33.35

:une 6 33 34.00 1.29 34.34

:u#% 7 32 34.47 1.21 35.29

Au,u*" 8 36 35.76 1.22 35.68

Sep"em;er 9 33 35.98 1.12 36.97


16/17

2 4 6 8 10 12

ME>


17/17

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