coordination centre for effects jean-paul hettelingh, ec4macs kick off meeting, iiasa, 6-7 march...

Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 Coordination Centre for Effects

EC4MACS

Task 3:

Ecosystem Impact Assessment

by the

MNP-Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE)


The Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) …

• Consists of:– Max Posch,– Jaap Slootweg,– Jean-Paul Hettelingh,

• Collaborates with Alterra (Wim de Vries and Gert Jan Reinds) on bio-geochamical modelling,

• Collaborates with university of Leiden on GIS and ecology.


…Develops methodologies and databases on European critical loads (acidification, eutrophication, heavy metals); deposition below which no adverse effects occur to ecosystems according to current knowledge…,

5th percentile critical loadsAcidification Eutrophication


…and methodologies to assess future effects of changes in the exceedances of critical load (emission scenario dependent)…,


…in collaboration with 27 National Focal Centres (NFCs),covering about 1,5 million data points on soil-vegetation

characteristics within the EMEP modelling domain of GAINS


…in support of effect-based European air pollution policies; CLRTAP-Oslo protocol (2001), CLRTAP-Gothenburg protocol (1999), EC-NEC

directive (2001), EC-Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution.

Intergovernmental bodies, expert groups and scientific centresUN/ECE-LRTAP Convention

International Co-operative Programme on Modelling and Mapping


EB

WGE

RIVMCCE

Decision on effects basisof protocols.

Formulate workplan, endorse CCE results.

Methods & data development,reach consensus in ICP M&M, Scientific community & NFCs.

Consensus on methods ?

Apply methods; provide data.

UN/ECE workshops,CCE workshops,

Conferences.

Data, and maps verified and ok ?

TFIAM

noyes

no

yes

Results (critical loads) in IMPACT module of RAINS

and other IEMs.

…Including scientific consensus under the LRTAP-Convention…

NFCs


…implements results in RAINS/GAINS…

Industrial production

Agriculture

Energy

NH3 emissions

NOx emissions

VOC emissions

PM emissions

CO2 emissions

N 2O emissions

HFC emissions

PFC emissions

SO2 emissions

SF6 emissions

Single and

multiple

pollutant

emission

controls

S deposition

N deposition

O3 formation

CH4 emissions

Secondary aerosols

Primaryparticles

Critical loads for acidification

Critical loads for nitrogen

Critical levelsfor ozone

Life expectancy

Health guidelines O3

Radiative forcing/GWP

Surface waters

Forests soils

Human health

Climate

Crops


…focuses in the future on revision processes under CLRTAP and EC (EC4MACS)…

• EC-Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution

• CLRTAP Gothenburg Protocol


…Assessing exceedance of critical loads for acidification in e.g.2000, 2010-CLE, 2020-CLE, 2020-MFR

2000

2020-MFR2020-CLE

2010-CLE

Area at risk in EU25: 18%, 11%, 7%, 2%Area at risk in Europe: 12%, 8%, 6%, 1%


Exceedance %: EU25: 65.1 60.3 55.9 25.4 Europe: 45.8 45.6 44.0 13.8

2000

CLE 2020

CLE 2010

MTFR 2020

…Assessing exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication in e.g.2000, 2010-CLE, 2020-CLE, 2020-MFR,


…currently extending methods to include biological endpoints

also for natura2000 areas…


…exploring overlays between NFC-sumissions and location of Natura2000 sites…(e.g. Netherlands)


Track 1: Voluntary Call for Data 2006/07

- Empirical N critical loads: Should be done by all countries to be able to compare with computed values!

- Update of the critical load of nitrogen: Application of wide(r) range of critical limits, also addressing biodiversity. (CCE-Alterra Background Document)

- Dynamic Modelling:

- Enquire availability of data to run more complex (Δ vegetation) models.

Track 2: 2007-future

- Focus on implementation/use of (more complex) modelling of N-effectson biodiversity (see CCE Background Document) and Natura2000 areas- Under climate change…- Under uncertainty.

…implemented the CLRTAP and EC4MACS workplan


…will review results under climate change…

• Δ temperature → Δ critical load

• Δ precipitation → Δ critical load

• …

• Δ dispersion → Δ exceedance of critical loads

• …

• → Δ risk of impacts (magnitude and spatial distribution


…will review results under uncertainty.

• Critical loads cannot be validated (…impacts are in the future…)

• …Can be verified by means of “ensemble modelling” (use more than 1 single methodology; e.g. comparing magnitude and spatial distribution of empirical and computed critical loads

• …focus on robustness of exceedances…

• …by improving knowledge on false positifs (wrongly reject exceedance), and collaborate with the EC4MACS team in identifying no regret scenarios and co-benefits to diminish the “cost” of false negatifs (wrongly reject non-exceedance).


Thank you

www.mnp.nl/cce

coordination centre for effects jean-paul hettelingh, ec4macs kick off meeting, iiasa, 6-7 march...

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