conversions: rural alaska energy supply chains presented to rural alaska energy conference september...
TRANSCRIPT
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Conversions:Rural Alaska Energy Supply
Chainspresented to
Rural Alaska Energy ConferenceSeptember 2002
Steve ColtInstitute of Social and Economic Research
University of Alaska Anchorageemail [email protected]
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Electricity in PCE Communities
• Serves about 78,000 people• with 5,400 kWh per person per year
Source: PCE FY00 statistics
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Three Questions
•Where does rural Alaska electricity come from?
• Why does it cost so much?• What can we do about it?
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• Urban Alaska electricity comes from– natural gas– hydro– (and coal)
• Rural Alaska electricity comes from– Diesel ! (and hydro)
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Generation in PCE Communities by Source –
Hydro
12%
Diesel
88%
Total = 425 million kWh/yearor 48 MW average outputSource: PCE FY00 statistics
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Three Questions• Where does rural Alaska electricity
come from?
•Why does it cost so much?
• What can we do about it?
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Electricity in PCE Communities
• Serves 78,000 people• with 5,400 kWh per person per
year• using 360 gallons diesel per person
per yr• that costs about $390 per person
per year
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Fuel Cost per kWh: Anchorage vs. Rural Alaska
2
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
cent
s pe
r kW
h
Anchorage high-wind communities
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Rural diesel electricity comes from:
• Fossils• Crude Oil• Diesel at Refinery Gate (Anacortes
WA, Richmond WA, Nikiski AK)• Diesel at Barge Dock• Diesel in Tank Farm• Electricity at Powerhouse• Electricity in home
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Components of Utility Diesel Cost
• Crude oil = $.35-.55 • Refining = $.25 • Bulk Barge = $.10-.30 • Inland Transport = $.00 - $1.00• Bulk Storage = $.10-.20
• Total = $.80 - $2.30
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Actual Range of Fuel Costs
King Cove, City of Quinhagak Togiak Perryville, City of Chauthbaluk Noatak
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
$ p
er
Ga
llo
nPCE Recipient Communities
Box Plot - Median, Upper & Lower Quartiles, Outer Fences, Outliers
Source: FY96-FY00 PCE Annual Report 0ct 01 Oct. 22, 2001 11:47:46 AM
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crude
29%
refiner
16%
inland
32%
storage
10%
barge
13%
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NonFuel Cost per kWh
8
27.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
cent
s pe
r kW
h
Anchorage AVEC
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Nonfuel cost includes
• Generators (machines)• Distribution lines and meters
(equipment)• Operations, Maintenance and
Management (people)
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Total Non-Fuel Cost per kWh Sold vs. kWh SoldFirm Level Data - Unfilled Panel
$0.000
$0.200
$0.400
$0.600
$0.800
$1.000
$1.200
$1.400
$1.600
$1.800
$2.000
0 10000000 20000000 30000000 40000000 50000000 60000000 70000000
kWh Sold
$ p
er
kWh
APC
AVEC
BethelUnalaska & Nome
THREA
Naknek
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Nonfuel cost per kWh for small rural utilities
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000
kWh Sold
$/k
Wh
Village Non-Profit
Village For Profit
Regional Non-Profit
Regional For-Profit
Kotlik-99
Kotlik-97
Kotlik-98
Tuntutuliak
AVEC
Arctic Village
Pedro Bay
Napaskiak
Venetie
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True Cost of Electric Service to PCE Communities: $116
million/yr
Booked Fuel26%
Booked O&M33%
Booked Capital15%
Off Book Capital Grants9%
Off Book Subsidized Interest
16%
Off Book O&M1%
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Three Questions
• Where does rural Alaska electricity come from?
• Why does it cost so much?
•What can we do about it?
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What can we do?• Reduce fuel use?
– Yes! Save 9-18 cents per kWh
• Eliminate generators?– Maybe….Save 0-5 cents per kWh
• Reduce Distribution Equipment?– No. (at least not now…) 5-10 cents per
kWh
• Save OM&M Expense (people)?– Probably not…5-20 cents per kWh
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Electricity Goes to:
• Light, sound, heat, appliances, TV, computer– Efficiency of conversion matters!
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How do We Do It?
• Invest – • in 3 kinds of capital
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Three Kinds of Capital
• Physical Capital – generators, wind turbines, distribution lines
• Human Capital – people with the right skills in the right place at the right time
• Social Capital – communities and utilities that work together to sustain the electric system
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Rural Energy and Jobs
• The conventional energy system supports significant employment.
• Little of the total cost goes out-of-state
• About 75% of rural energy project dollars flow to urban areas. (weatherization)
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We’re all in this together.
View this show after Thursday 9/19 at:
www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu
~The End