conversion strategy (de)

© Andre Morys, Web Arts AG www.web-arts.comFRANKFURT - HAMBURG - MÜNCHEN

André Morys

Conversion OptimierungHardcore

http://www.web-arts.com

Wer kennt den Unterschied?

HRS Booking

© Andre Morys, Web Arts AG www.web-arts.com3

André Morys @morys

j.mp/convopt


© Web Arts AG www.web-arts.com

Wir beraten Top 100 Unternehmen für mehr Wachstum

4


© Web Arts AG www.web-arts.com

115 Conversion Experts in 15 Offices worldwide

5

Web Arts is founder of the worldwide alliance of leading

conversion optimization companies



„Welcher Header hat 22% mehr Leads gebracht?“



„Welches Kategorieseiten-Layout hat den Umsatz um 75,09% gesteigert?“



„Welcher Add-to-Cart-Button hat den Umsatz um 159,95% gesteigert?“

Fehler 3: Das geht gar nicht.

Fehler 1: Woran lag es denn

genau?Fehler 2: Wo sind die Informationen über

Testlaufzeit und Stichprobe?

(99,9% Konfidenzlevel)

Bullshit.



Which Test Won -> Which Test Was Stopped Zu FRÜH UM MEHR UPLIFT VORZUGAUKELN



Glaube keinen A/B-Test-

Case Studies.


© Andre Morys, Web Arts AG www.web-arts.com

A/B Test Resultat

Realität

„Ich spüren keinen Uplift“

18



Nach 1 Stunde

+106,76%



Nach 1 Tag

+9,06%



Nach 2 Tagen

+10,13%



Nach 3 Tagen

+3,24%



Nach 7 Tagen

+8,68%



Nach 14 Tagen

+2,41%



Nach 4 Wochen

+0,91%



A/BTesting

70% wissen nicht, dass es ein Fragezeichen gibt 20% haben keine Antwort

10% haben eine Idee, wie Sie in Phase 3 kommen



konversionskraft.de/tools

29

Gilt auch für Segmente und MVT!



CRO: Improve Digital Value Chain

30

Site

Digital Value Chain

�Clicks

1-3%



Kosten für Entscheidungen

+

+- ValiditätConfirmation Bias

Der Begriff Bestätigungsfehler (confirmation bias) bezeichnet in der Kognitionspsychologie die Neigung, Informationen so auszuwählen, zu suchen und zu interpretieren, dass diese die eigenen Erwartungen erfüllen. Unbewusst ausgeblendet werden dabei Informationen, die eigene Erwartungen widerlegen (disconfirming evidence). Die betreffende Person unterliegt dann einer Selbsttäuschung oder einem Selbstbetrug.



Was ist die Alternative?



Stimulus

Reaktion



Traffic

Website

Web Analytics

Das Distanzhandels Paradoxon



Traffic

Website

Web Analytics

Click

Hand

Motor Control

prefrontal Cortex

Limbic System

Perception

Das Distanzhandels Paradoxon



Traffic

Website

Web Analytics

Click

Hand

Motor Control

prefrontal Cortex

Limbic System

Perception

99%

1%



Test: facebook Acount Deaktivierung

37

fb cancellation seite beispiel




38

fb cancellation seite beispiel




39


„Warum sollte ich hier und jetzt kaufen?“


Kernfragen für mehr Kontrast von Testhypothesen

‣ Wird es überhaupt wahrgenommen?

‣ Ist es relevant?

‣ Hat es einen Wert?

‣ Ist es alleinstellend?

‣ Folgt es psychologischen Prinzipien?

41



Rauschen - kein signifikanter

Gewinner

Varianten laufen stabil besser - 2.800

Conversions pro Variante +7,4% Sales

Conversion Rate

48

14 Tage Testlaufzeit = 3 x Sales Cycles



V0: Original



V1: stimulantere Bühne + Portrait Einkäufer



V2: zusätzlich mehr Fokus auf Value Propositions




Gewinner


Gewinner

159% Uplift

Woran erkennt man valide Resultate?



V2 erzeugt signifikant mehr Umsatz bei

weniger Bestellungen




Sind die Bilder der Einkäufer wirklich relevant für Kunden? War das Cross-Selling wichtiger?

Weiter optimieren und testen...


+15,57% Sales-Conversion Rate

-1,8% Sales-Conversion-Rate

+4% Sales-Conversion-Rate


Wie viele solcher Entscheidungen werden in Redesign-Projekten falsch getroffen?



4 Wochen Testlaufzeit

Gewinner läuft > 3 Wochen parallel

58




Goal =

Die gleiche Variante erzeugt ebenfalls signifikant mehr Brutto-Nachfrage

59




2011 2012 2013 2014


Persuasion = Growth Factor

HRS = Traditional hotel booker since 1972 Booking.com = Young Challenger, fueled with persuasion principles

© Web Arts AG www.web-arts.comFRANKFURT - HAMBURG - MÜNCHEN

Behavior PatternsCompetitive Advantage through psychological knowledge

How do I perceive things?

What is fun for me?How do I build relations? What is most convenient for me?

Perception

Gamification SimplificationRelation

What is the influence of other people?

How do I make decisions?

SocialDecision

bit.ly/conversiontraining



Decision Social Perception

Relation Gamification Simplification

How do I perceive things?

What is fun for me?How do I build relations? What is most convenient for me?

What is the influence of other people?

How do I make decisions?

Behavior PatternsCompetitive Advantage through psychological knowledge




Cognitive Biases (139)

Actor-observer bias Affective forecasting Ambiguity effect Attentional Attribute substitution Attribution theory Availability cascade Backfire effect Bandwagon effect Base rate fallacy Belief Bias Bias Blind Spot Bizarreness effect Change bias Choice Supportive Bias Clustering Illusion Cognitive bias mitigation Cognitive distortion Confirmation bias Congruence bias Conjunction fallacy Conservatism Consistency bias Context effect Cross-race effect Cryptomnesia Denomination effect Disqualifying the positive Distinction bias Dunning-kruger effect Duration neglect Egocentric bias Emotional reasoning Empathy gap Essentialism Exaggerated expectation

Expectation bias Extrinsic incentives bias False consensus effect False memory Focusing Effect Forer effect Functional fixedness Fundamental attribution error Gamblers fallacy Generation effect Google Effekt Hard-easy effect Heuristics in judgement and decision making Hostile media effect Hot-hand fallacy Humor effect Illusion of control Illusion of external agency Illusion of transparency Illusion of validity Illusory correlation Illusory superiority Impact Bias impression management Inference-observation confusion Information Bias Ingroup bias Innumeracy Insensitivity to sample size Introspection illusion Jumping to conclusion bias Just-world hypothesis Less is better effect Leveling and sharpening List-length effect

Ludic fallacy Magical thinking Magnification and minimization Mental filter Mere-exposure effekt Misattribution Misinformation effect Misinterpretations Modality effect Price illusion Mood-congruent memory bias Moral credential effect Moral luck Naive cynicsm Naive realism Negativity bias Neglect of probability Next-in-line effect Normalcy bias Omission bias Opimism bias Osborn effect Ostrich effect Outcome bias Outgroup homogenity Overconfidence effect Pareidolia Part-list cueing effect Peak End Rule persistence Pessimism bias Picture superiority effect Planning fallacy Positivity bias Post-purchase rationalization Pro-innovation bias

Projection bias Pseudocertainty effect Reactive devaluation Recency bias Reminiscence bump Risk compensation Rosy retrospection Salience Selective perception Self-relevance effect Semmelweis reflex Social comparison bias Social desirability bias Somatic markers hypothesis Source confustion Stereotyping Subaddivity effect Subject validation Suggestibility Survivorship bias System Justification Telescoping effect Texas sharpshooter fallacy Time-saving bias Tip of the tongue phenomen Ultimate attribution error Unit bias Verbatim effect Von restorff effekt Zeigarnik effekt Zero-risk bias Zero-sum heuristic




Adaptive Bias Affect Heuristic All-or-nothing thinking Anchoring Anxiety Aesthetic = Good Arousal Authenticity Authority Autonomy Availability Heuristics Banner Blindness Black swan theory Bonding Breaking Rules Caring Challenge Cognitive Dissonance Commitment & Consistency Comparability Completion Context Contrast effect Curiosity Curse of knowledge Decoy Effekt Default Defensive attribution hypothesis Endowment Effect Exclusivity Faces/Views Feedback Flow Framing

Free Funneling Grouping Halo Effect Herding Hide/Remove Hope Hyperbolic discounting Identification Illusion of asymmetric insight Illusion of truth effect Innerer Dialog Irrational Escalation Island Joy/Fun Known Kognitive Leichtigkeit Leaderboard Liking Logic Loss Aversion Mastery Mental accounting Mental Models Mirror Nonsense math effect Order Order/Harmony Overgeneralization Paradox of choice Patterns/Principles Preview Primacy-Recency-Effekt Priming

Proof Purpose Reactance/Censoring Reason why Reciprocity Remove Represantativeness heuristic Reputation Restraint bias Reward Rhyme-as-reason effect Rules Scarcity Schuld Self expression Self fulfilling prophecy Self serving bias Self-perception theory Sensation Skim/Scan/Read Social Proof Sofortiges Erfolgserlebnis Spurring Status quo Story-telling Sympathie Tension/Closure Testimonial Testing effect Threat Trait ascription bias Trust Try out Tunneling

Unlocking Value/UVP Well travelled road effect Worse-than-average effect Zugehörigkeit

Competitive Advantage through psychological knowledge

Behavior Patterns




Adaptive Bias Affect Heuristic All-or-nothing thinking Anchoring Anxiety Aesthetic = Good Arousal Authenticity Authority Autonomy Availability Heuristics Banner Blindness Black swan theory Bonding Breaking Rules Caring Challenge Cognitive Dissonance Commitment & Consistency Comparability Completion Context Contrast effect Curiosity Curse of knowledge Decoy Effekt Default Defensive attribution hypothesis Endowment Effect Exclusivity Faces/Views Feedback Flow Framing

Free Funneling Grouping Halo Effect

Herding Hide/Remove Hope Hyperbolic discounting Identification Illusion of asymmetric insight Illusion of truth effect Innerer Dialog Irrational Escalation Island Joy/Fun Known Kognitive Leichtigkeit Leaderboard Liking Logic Loss Aversion Mastery Mental accounting Mental Models Mirror Nonsense math effect Order Order/Harmony Overgeneralization Paradox of choice Patterns/Principles Preview

Primacy-Recency-Effekt Priming Proof Purpose Reactance/Censoring Reason why Reciprocity Remove Represantativeness heuristic Reputation Restraint bias Reward Rhyme-as-reason effect Rules Scarcity Schuld Self expression Self fulfilling prophecy Self serving bias Self-perception theory Sensation Skim/Scan/Read Social Proof Sofortiges Erfolgserlebnis Spurring Status quo Story-telling Sympathie Tension/Closure Testimonial Testing effect Threat Trait ascription bias Trust

Try out Tunneling Unlocking Value/UVP Well travelled road effect Worse-than-average effect Zugehörigkeit

Competitive Advantage through psychological knowledge

Behavior Patterns




Or like this?

70



Or even like this?

71

Kacke. Das wird eng.



Hype Disillusionment Enlightenment Productivity

159% Beispiel Inhouse-Test

Frontlineshop

Booking.com

Was kann ich tun?



Frontlineshop

Booking.com

1) Validität der Resultate erhöhen:

‣ Testlaufzeit verlängern ‣ A/A‘/B/B‘ testen um Artefakte zu erkennen ‣ nicht in Segmenten nach Pseudo-Uplifts suchen ‣ Alpha-Fehler-Kumulierung verstehen

bit.ly/cro-statistik



Frontlineshop

Booking.com

2) Effektivere Hypothesen generieren

‣ Kein Trial&Error ‣ Verhaltensökonomik verstehen

(„booking.com“) ‣ Qualitative Methoden einsetzen ‣ Hypothesen priorisieren




Frontlineshop

Booking.com

3) Fokus verändern

‣ Prozesseffizienz messen ‣ Erfolgsquote in Prozent ‣ ROI p.a. ‣ Durchschnittlicher Uplift

‣ Optimierungsprozess optimieren ‣ Woher kommen die besten

Hypothesen? ‣ Wie wird die Organisation agiler?


Growth Engineering

Playbook

konversionsKRAFT.de/playbook


André Morys CEO

Web Arts AG [email protected] Tel. +49.6172.68097-15

www.web-arts.com

Danke!

Folge mir auf Twitter: @morys

conversion strategy (de)

Leadership & Management