controlling vehicular air pollution in beijing
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Controlling Vehicular Air Pollution in Beijing. Professor Kebin He Dept. of Environmental Science & Engineering, Tsinghua University Orlando, Florida, USA June 24, 2001. Overview of urbanization. Increase of number for Chinese cities. Urbanization Trends in China. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Controlling Vehicular Air Pollution in Beijing
Professor Kebin He
Dept. of Environmental Science & Engineering, Tsinghua University
Orlando, Florida, USA
June 24, 2001
Overview of urbanization
•Increase of number for Chinese cities
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Urbanization Trends in China
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
> 200 100- 200 50- 100 20- 50 <20Urban Population (10,000)
19941998
NOx Concentration for Different Scale Cities
0
0, 010, 02
0, 030, 04
0, 050, 06
0, 070, 08
0, 09
> 200 100- 200 50- 100 20- 50 <20
NOx
(mg/m
浓度
3)
19941998
Rates of NOx exceeding standard
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
> 200 100- 200 50- 100 20- 50 <20
( )城市人口 万人
(%)
超标率
19941998
6
Why Beijing?
7
Motorization(Vehicles per 1000 people)
•0
•100
•200
•300
•400
•500
•600
•1940 •1950 •1960 •1970 •1980 •1990 •2000
• Veh
icle
s p
er 1
000
peo
ple
•Japan
•Tokyo
•Tokyo Ward area
•Korea
•Seoul
•China
•Beijing
•9
•72
•317
•557
•226
•356
•216
8
7.2
9.310.2
1.4
3.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
London New York Paris Tokyo Beijing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140V
ehic
le o
wn
ersh
ip, m
illio
n
NO
x con
cen
trat
ion
, g/
m3
Beijing is characterized by its low vehicle ownership and high pollution: Comparison of Beijing with four big cities
Data for Beijing is in 1998. Others are in 1990.
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1981 1986 1990 1995
Pas
seng
er tr
ips,
bill
ion
Bicycle Bus Subway Taxi Private car
Source: Yang, Urban Transportation and Environment in Beijing.
Primarily due to past settlement patterns, the relatively short trips, and government policy to promote bicycle use, Beijing’s transportation heavily relies on buses and bicycles. However, Beijing is beginning to experience a rapid rate of motorization, and most of the recently increased trips come from automobiles.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1981 1986 1990 1995
Pas
seng
er tr
ips,
bill
ion
BicycleBusSubwayTaxiPrivate car
Source: Yang, Urban Transportation and Environment in Beijing.
Primarily due to past settlement patterns, the relatively short trips, and government policy to promote bicycle use, Beijing’s transportation heavily relies on buses and bicycles. However, Beijing is beginning to experience a rapid rate of motorization, and most of the recently increased trips come from automobiles.
10
Passenger Traffic by Public Transportation Mode in Beijing
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998
An
nu
al p
asse
ng
er t
raff
ic (
1,00
0 p
asse
ng
eres
)
Beijing Taxi
Beijing Buses
Beijing Subway
Beijing Tram/Train
11
Bus
Car
Light rail
Subway
MC
NMV
Others
Comparison of passenger trip mix among big cities in the world
100%0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Beijing
Mexico city
Seoul
Bangkok
Rio de Janeiro
Buenos Aires
New York
London
Paris
Tokyo 1990
1990
1990
1990
1992
1995
1992
1992
1992
1995
12
China: Urban NOx Concentration
NOx Concentration in Chinese cities
Non-attainmentcities
Non-attainment forClass II standard
Non-attainment forClass III standard
yearNo.Of
cities numberrate
(%)number
rate
(%)number
rate
(%)
Non-attainment
cities for ClassIII
1995 88 32 36.4 3 3.4 0 0Beijing,
Guangzhou,Lanzhou
1996 88 27 30.7 25 28.4 2 2.3Beijing,
Guangzhou
1997 94 32 34.1 29 30.9 3 3.2Beijing,
Guangzhou,Shanghai
1998 96 32 33.3 29 30.2 3 3.1Beijing,
Guangzhou,Shanghai
13
Beijing: Air Pollutant Concentrations
Air Quality in Beijing from1997-1999 (mg/m3)
year SO2 NOx CO TSP
1997 0.125 0.133 3.0 0.318
1998 0.120 0.152 3.3 0.378
1999 0.080 0.140 2.9 0.364
14
BEIJING: O3 Concentration in 1997-1999
•3
Ozone concentration in Beijing
O3 Concentration in Beijing
Number of non-
attainment days
Number of non-
attainment hours
Max. Hourly
concentration
(g/m3)
1997 71 434 346
1998 101 504 384
1999 119 777
• Similar temporal variations at the two sites
• Strong weekly variations: max difference for two consecutive weeks is 2.5 times
Weekly variations
Beijing: PM2.5 Mass Concentration Levels
in 1999-2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
9/24-
9/30
10/6-
10/14
10/21
-10/2
7
11/4-
11/11
11/18
-11/2
5
12/2-
12/9
12/16
-12/2
3
12/30
/99-1
/6/00
1/13-
1/20
1/27-
2/3
2/10-
2/17
2/24-
3/2
3/9-3
/16
3/23-
3/30
4/6-4
/13
4/20-
4/27
5/4-5
/11
5/18-
5/25
6/1-6
/8
6/15-
6/22
6/29-
7/6
7/13-
7/20
7/27-
8/3
8/10-
8/17
8/24-
8/31
9/7-9
/14
9/21-
9/28
Sampl i ng Dates
PM2
.5 C
once
ntra
tions
(µg
.m-3
)
Chegongzhuang
Tsi nghua
16
Beijing is developing its suburbanization and decentralization, which will increase the passenger kilometers traveled
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Population in suburban area
Population in rural area
Population in core city
Popu
lati
on, m
illi
on
Source: Beijing’s Master Planning, 1993.
B e ij in g is d e v e lo p in g it s s u b u r b a n iz a t io n a n d d e c e n t r a liz a t io n , w h ic h w il l in c r e a se t h e p a s s e n g e r k i lo m e t e r s tr a v e le d
0
2
4
6
8
1 0
1 2
1 4
1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 20 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5
P o p u la t io n in s u b u rb a n a r e a
P o p u la t io n in ru r a l a re a
P o p u la t io n in c o r e c i t y
Pop
ulat
ion,
mil
lion
S o u rc e : B e i j in g ’ s M a s t e r P la n n in g , 1 9 9 3 .
17
From Other Countries’ Experiences, China Has a Great Potential for Continuous Vehicle Growth
664
428501 523
598
8
136
764
0
200
400
600
800
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
Bra
zil
Me
xico
U.K
.
Fra
nce
Jap
an
Ca
na
da
U.S
.
Vehicles Per 1000 Persons
18
Relations between Vehicle Population and Emissions
100,000 vehicle population growth
Increasing emissions of 25,000t CO and 2,000t
NOx
0. 0
2. 0
4. 0
6. 0
8. 0
10. 0
排放量(万吨)
CO/ 10 NOx
220万辆260万辆300万辆 2007
年
19
Three cases in Beijing
• Formulating mobile source control
strategy from 1995 to 2010
• Evaluating the effectiveness of air
pollution control measures since 1998
• Prediction of air quality in 2008
20
Case I:Mobile Source Emission Inventory
(NOx, 1995, t / y)
21
Case I: MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS
●Spatial distribution of annual average concentrations in 1995
CO NOx
Case I: MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS
Pollution Share for Concentration
(%) Year Emissions,(t))
Pollution Share
for Emission
(%) Urban Area Downtown
1995年 107.5 76.8 76.5 86.3CO
1998年 129.0 82.7 84.1 89.5
1995年 9.38 40.2 68.4 72NOx
1998年 11.5 42.9 72.8 73.6
23
Case I: IMPACTS OF EMISSION CONTROL ON AIR QUALITY
•CO
•0•50
•100•150•200•250•300•350
•1995 •1998 •2002 •2010 •year
•10
thousa
nd
tons
•0•1•2•3
•NOx
•0•2•4•6•8
•10•12•14•16•18•20
•1995 •1998 •2002 •2010 •year
•10
thousa
nd t
ons
•0
•1
•2
•3
•The reduction potential of different control strategies
24
Case I: Government Action
☆ Beijing: emission standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles
☆ Shanghai: emission standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles
☆ Emission Standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles (GWPB1-1999)
☆ Standard for hazardous contents in gasoline (GWPB001-1999)
25
Effectiveness from four phases’ control measures
NOx PM10SO2
transport coalPhase 1 1. 31% 4. 52% 0. 27% 0. 4%Phase 2 11. 02% 9. 68% 2. 86% 3. 9%Phase 3 23. 39% 12. 84% 4. 77% 8. 8%Phase 4 27. 63% 15. 53% 6. 84% 11. 4%
NOx PM10SO2
transport coalPhase 1 1. 31% 4. 52% 0. 27% 0. 4%Phase 2 11. 02% 9. 68% 2. 86% 3. 9%Phase 3 23. 39% 12. 84% 4. 77% 8. 8%Phase 4 27. 63% 15. 53% 6. 84% 11. 4%
• emission reduction (baseline:1998 )
26
1998四期措施后相对于 年的削减率
0. 00%5. 00%
10. 00%15. 00%20. 00%25. 00%30. 00%35. 00%40. 00%45. 00%
SO2 NOx PM10
削减率,%
浓度监测值浓度计算值排放量
Effectiveness from four phases’ control measures
27
Meet VKTDemand
Transport mode
Energy consumption
Emissions Air quality Meet environ. Requirement?
Scenarios for vehicle targeted measures, fuel-targeted measures, and transport system measures
Non-motorizedvehicles
Motorized vehicles
Emission factors
Traffic flow distribution
Policy directions
Walk Bicycle Railway Roadway
Light rail Subway
GIS support system
No
Yes
Cars
LDV
HDGV
HDDV
………
28
Tranportation MODE
Priorities: Rail, Public, Bicycle, Car
0
20
40
60
80
100
Bi cycl e Pub Rai l Car
E-bene. ,%T-bene. ,%
29
Future plan for Beijing’s Railroad
30
Clean transportation for Olympics
Subway: 1.3 million person-trip / day in 19992.5 million person-trip / day in 2007
Mass Transit: 9 million person-trip / day in 1999 18 million person-trip / day in 2007
34,000 clean fuel vehicle, 1300 pure CNG8 million bicycles
31
Future Consideration
CLEAN
VEHICLETECHNOLOGY
CLEAN
FUELS
APPROPRIATEMAINTENANCE
ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE
VEHICLE POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY
TRANSPORTATION & LAND USE PLANNING
32
Case III:Prediction of PM10 Concentration in Beijing in 2008
•Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2)
-- For new vehicles
•EURO •1 •EURO •2 •EURO •3 •EURO 4
•Light-duty
•vehicles•Ⅰ•1999.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2007.1 •2010.
•Light-duty
•vehicles •Ⅱ•2000.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2007.1 •2010.
•High-duty
•vehicles
•2000.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2008.1 •2014
•Motorcycles •2001.1.1
33
Case III:Prediction of NOx Concentration in Beijing in 2008
•Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2)
-- For new vehicles
•EURO •1 •EURO •2 •EURO •3 •EURO 4
•Light-duty
•vehicles•Ⅰ•1999.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2007.1 •2010.
•Light-duty
•vehicles •Ⅱ•2000.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2007.1 •2010.
•High-duty
•vehicles
•2000.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2008.1 •2014
•Motorcycles •2001.1.1
34
概 述
Thank You!