contribution to the development of a comprehensive framework of african climate change program:...
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Contribution to the development of a comprehensive framework of African Climate change Program:
Economics of climate adaptation in Africa
Presented by Musonda Mumba - UNEP
*****Youba Sokona, OSS
Thomas E Downing, SEIMuyeye Chambwera, IIED
Paul Watkiss, SEI
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The work
Kindly note that these are preliminary results of the UNEP AdapCost Project supported by NORAD, building on relevant
studies supported by DFID, DANIDA & SIDA
This is therefore a join effort of:Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)
Observatoire du Sahel et Sahara (OSS)International Institute on Environment & Development (IIED)
AND Others.
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Work in relation to Comprehensive Framework
KINDLY note that its premature at this stage to complete the Comprehensive Framework that was called for in last
year’s decision – as this needs to be a COLLECTIVE effort emanating from Africa.
HOWEVER, this work highlights some of the elements of the Comprehensive Framework.
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Observations•Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from observations;
•Therefore adaptation to climate change is both a moral and survival imperative;
•Adaptation is about development, but development under uncertainty, where capacity to manage risk determines progress;
•Required is a new vision of how to do development under the pressure of new and increased risk.
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Key messages (1)
•Cost of climate adaptation in Africa is at least $1 billion now;
•Economic assessments relate to different users and uses;
•Reliable finance...for effective solutions;
•Many entry points for adaptation;
•Adaptation requires greater investment in generating and managing information and knowledge.
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Key messages (2)
•Adaptation planning should became a key imperative and not a marginal activity;
•Surveillance is a prerequisite for planning;
•Adaptation is contextual, should be driven by national agenda and no one size fits all;
•New types of institutions or new institutional arrangements required;
•Leadership for coordinated strategies.
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African warming...•Observed warming is already more
than can be explained without including greenhouse gases in global models;
•Envelop of projectedwarming is veryserious
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...will have costly impacts...
• Impacts of climate change in 2030could be 2.7% of GDP in Africa
• Regional variations are significant
• Source: initial results from a global integratedassessment model (FUND); UNEP AdaptCostand EC ClimateCost projects
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...that grow over time
Source: Preliminary runs of FUND for the UNEP AdaptCost and EC ClimateCost projects
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A sample of impacts in Africa
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Water Resources25% of Africa’s population to experience water stress by
2020 (75-250 mil people)
Areas of concern include: North Africa, Western Cape, Arid Lands of Kenya etc.
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Loss of Ecosystem Services
Loss of Corals and Bleaching – resulted in loss of tourism in Kenya
Biodiversity Hotspots: Reduction of mammal species in National Parks up to
25-40 %
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Une illustration : le Lac Faguibine (Mali)
The situation will worsen if we fail to act now
Jan 74-déc 78Oct 2006
Lake Faguibine, in Mali has dried up due to diminished rainfall
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Sea Level Rise
Risk areas – Coast lines – case studies: Egypt, Benin, Kenya, Mozambique
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Agriculture: Yield reduction of up to 50% - studies in Burkina Faso,
Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya…
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Other examples of impacts in Africa
•Cooling demand/Energy cost: Rising temps will increase cooling demand & energy costs – in Mediterranean for
example;
•Health, burden of disease: climate change already caused over 55,000 deaths/year due vector disease & diarrhoeal
diseases; Already Malaria is spreading to high-altitude areas (Mt. Kenya, Rwenzori Mountain Region)
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(Smith et al. 2009 PNAS)
Updated Reasons for Concern
EU 2°C-Guardrail
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What do we know about the cost of climate change adaptation in Africa?
• Estimates range from nearly a billion dollars now to over 50 billion dollars by 2030
• Low estimates for Africa are for present needs, lower bound of estimates based largely on global assessments;
• High estimates for Africa are for 2020 to 2030 and the upper bound of estimates based largely on global assessments.
• URGENTLY need to get national input.
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Adaptation costs in Africa
Source Low High Time frame
Oxfam 4.6 17.3 PresentStern 0.5 3.9 PresentWorld Bank 1.8 5.3 Present
AfDB/WB/UNECA 2 7 2030PAGE 1.9 7.8 2030SEI 0.8 10 2030UNDP 17.1 24.2 2015
US$ billion; based on a variety of methods; SEI estimates are from report to AMCEN in 2008, see new estimates for AdaptCost project
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Economic assessments of the cost of adaptation have different purposes
There is sufficient evidence for action: we should not wait until we know everything!
Project level: Screen each project for an opportunity to promote climate adaptation and reduce future impacts
Policy level: Establish a national and regional framework for action
Pathways: The most important strategic decisions are ones that enable a switch to a different pathway for
development
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Reliable finance leads to confidence in solutions and effective strategies
Some funding is on offer; little has been spent!Green bars: existing adaptation funds, with a cumulative
pledge (red line) at present of over $3 billion (global). Note the Adaptation Fund will have significant resources in the
next few years.Gold bars: expenditure by the funds, with a cumulative
expenditure (purple line) of less than $300 million.
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Adaptation initiatives in Africa
•NAPAs for Least Developed Countries
•Proliferation of Ad hoc projects and/or interventions (stocking exercise)
•Supply driven and not consistent with NAPAs
• Coherence and institutional issues
•Ownership and alignment gaps
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Adaptation initiatives in Africa
•The Africa Adaptation Network – in better position to collate information on Adaptation across Africa. Countries need to know where information on specific issues can be found & WHO to approach in the first place.
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Many entry points for adaptation
• Start with the urgent needs• Understanding vulnerability and impacts
• Improving natural resource management
• Reducing disaster risks
• Build capacity; learn by doing• Learn from pilot actions
• Scale up• Strategic protection
• Anticipate migration
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•Types of Adaptation linked to:
•Vulnerability Assessments
•Capacity
•Piloting Adaptation
•Operational
Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing
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•Example of URGENT Action:
•Awareness, Information, communication, early warning:
•Vulnerability Assessments: Build on NAPAs & existing platforms, link to multiple stressors e.g. desertification, health, pollution etc.;
•Capacity: Scale up existing organisations, networks, centres of excellence;
•Piloting Adaptation: Evaluate effect on poverty alleviation;
•Operational: Monitoring, learning from Actions.
Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing
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•Example of Action required with 5-10 years:
•Crisis management, large scale migration:
•Vulnerability Assessments: Scoping potential “hot spots”, understand pathways in multiple stressor context;
•Capacity: Establish international capacity with national focal points.
Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing
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•Example of Action required with 10-20 years – early preparation essential:
•Crisis management, large scale migration:
•Piloting Adaptation: Develop potential intervention models & approaches;
•Operational: Requires international strategies and Africa-wide Initiative.
Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing
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National leadership:coordinated, strategic approaches
• National Adaptation Mechanism• National framework and funding• Building multi-stakeholder approaches• Sharing information and actions
• Sustained over the coming decade• Confidence in coordinated action• Link to regional and global networks• Building the knowledge base
• Reliable, timely funding • Pilot actions• Early, major investments for critical needs
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Conclusions:Four key imperatives to consider
•Scale: Match need and responses to the scale of growing numbers of people and ecosystems in danger
•Speed: Waste no time because climate change is happening faster than predicted
•Focus: Manage risk, build the resilience by reducing vulnerability
•Integration: Consider at the same time risk reduction, adaptation, mitigation and human development goals
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Thank you...
For further information, see www.weADAPT.org
Additional funding from DANIDA, DFID, NORAD, Sida (CforD)