continued permafrost warming on the arctic slope of alaska ...2014 update gary clow usgs/instaar...
TRANSCRIPT
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Continued Permafrost Warming on the Arctic Slope of Alaska,
2014 Update
Gary Clow USGS/INSTAAR
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Alaska Climate Divisions
Bieniek et al. (2014)
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Statewide Air-Temperature Anomaly
5-yr running ave Bieniek et al. (2014)
dT = +0.9 K
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5-yr running ave Bieniek et al. (2014)
Statewide Air-Temperature Anomaly
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Arctic Slope Air-Temperature Anomaly
5-yr running ave Bieniek et al. (2014)
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Sea Ice Extent
NSIDC/NOAA
Sep-2011
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Air temperature reanalyses produced using the WRF model, 3.3-km resolution.
Warm Chukchi sector
Cool Chukchi sector
Cool NPR-A / Warm Arctic NWR
NE wind
A common pattern
Air-Temperature Patterns, Arctic Alaska
• With the juxtaposition of the Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, and Brooks Range, weather and climate patterns are somewhat complicated on the Arctic Slope.
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Chukchi Sea
Beaufort Sea ground temps
soil moisture
wind
snow depth
rainfall
air temp
radiation
telemetry USGS Climate-Station Network, Arctic Alaska
GTN-P
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+1.63
+1.44
+0.70
+0.87
+0.27
+0.92
°C/decade
Mean-Annual Air-Temperature Trends Stations with at least 10 years of data
Chukchi Sea
Beaufort Sea
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+1.63
+1.44
+0.70
+0.87
+0.27
+0.92
°C/decade
Mean-Annual Air-Temperature Trends Stations with at least 10 years of data
Chukchi Sea
Beaufort Sea
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Seasonal Air-Temperature Trends Fish Creek 1992-2013
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Atmosphere Active Layer (thaws in summer)
Permafrost
30 cm
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+1.63 +1.86
+1.44 +1.62
+0.70 +1.48
+0.87 +0.66
na +1.46
+0.27 +0.36
+0.92 +0.65
°C/decade air active layer
Mean-Annual Active-Layer Temperature Trends Stations with at least 10 years of data
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Fish Creek 1998-2013 Seasonal Ground-Temperature Trends
Active Layer (10 cm)
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Maximum Active-layer Depth
Year
Dep
th (c
m)
Active-layer Freeze-up Date
Day
of Y
ear
Year
Snow Depth
winter trend +10.8 cm / decade
Snow
Dep
th (c
m)
Snow and Active-Layer
Fish Creek
Fish Creek Fish Creek
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Chukchi Sea
USGS Deep-Borehole Array Thermal State of Permafrost
Beaufort Sea GTN-P
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Chukchi Sea
USGS Deep-Borehole Array Thermal State of Permafrost
Beaufort Sea GTN-P
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Permafrost Temperatures: South Meade Well
1980
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1981
Permafrost Temperatures: South Meade Well
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1983
Permafrost Temperatures: South Meade Well
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1984
Permafrost Temperatures: South Meade Well
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1989
Permafrost Temperatures: South Meade Well
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2002
Permafrost Temperatures: South Meade Well
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2007
Permafrost Temperatures: South Meade Well
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Permafrost Temperatures: South Meade Well
2012
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2012
20-m temps
Permafrost Temperatures: South Meade Well
+2.4°C warming since 1980 +2.9°C warming since 1989
1989 1980
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Permafrost Temperatures Deep Borehole Array
ESN, Beaufort Coast +1.8°C
Dep
th (m
) Temperature (°C)
FCK, Coastal Plain
TLK, Chukchi Coast
Dep
th (m
)
Dep
th (m
)
Temperature (°C)
SME, Coastal Plain
Dep
th (m
)
Temperature (°C)
2012
2012
2012 +1.9°C
+2.4°C
2012
+2.9°C
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Chukchi Sea
Permafrost Warming since 1990 (20-m depth)
Beaufort Sea
2.8 K
1.8 K 2.1 K
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- 4.1
- 6.6
- 6.5 - 6.4
- 6.2
- 6.3
- 7.0 - 7.4
- 7.2 - 6.2
- 5.4
- 7.7
- 2.7 - 1.4
- 3.9
- 4.3
Current Permafrost Temperatures at 20-m Depth
Chukchi Sea
Beaufort Sea
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Permafrost
Active Layer
Continuous Permafrost Discontinuous Permafrost
Permafrost Zones Alaska
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Permafrost
Active Layer
Continuous Permafrost Discontinuous Permafrost
Tair = -8°C Tg = -5°C
mean-annual
Permafrost Zones Alaska
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Current Permafrost Temperatures at 20-m Depth
Discontinuous Permafrost
Chukchi Sea
Beaufort Sea
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Summary: • Air temperatures across the Arctic Slope are continuing to warm during the autumn.
• Active-layer temperatures are increasing during all seasons except summer.
- increased autumn air temperatures - thicker cold-season snowpacks
• Permafrost temperatures have warmed 2-3 K since 1990 and are continuing to do so. (1 K / decade)
• The discontinuous permafrost boundary is primed to jump north of the Brooks Range.