context for reform of the private rented sector rory o’donnell, nesc generation rent : the future...
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Context for Reform of the Private Rented Sector
Rory O’Donnell, NESC
Generation Rent : the Future of the Private Rented Sector in IrelandThreshold, RIA, 16 June 2015
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Three Major Policy Advances
1. Goals of housing policy 2. Scale & nature of the challenge3. Social Housing Strategy
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Three Major Policy Advances 1. Goals of housing policy:• Affordability • Sustainability• Inclusion (SHS, p. 17)
2. Scale & nature of the challenge3. Social Housing Strategy
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Three Major Policy Advances 1. Goals of housing policy 2. Scale & nature of the challenge:
‘one-quarter to one-third will find it increasingly difficult’ (SHS, p. 17)
3. Social Housing Strategy
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Three Major Policy Advances 1. Goals of housing policy 2. Scale & nature of the challenge3. Social Housing Strategy–Resumed supply & Task Force –Promise policy to manage Buy-to-Lets–Promise policy for private rental sector
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Four NESC reports 2014-15 1. Social Housing at the Crossroads: Possibilities for
Investment, Provision and Cost Rental2. Homeownership and Rental: What Road is Ireland
On?3. Ireland’s Rental Sector: Pathways to Secure
Occupancy and Affordable Supply4. Housing Supply and Land: Driving Action for the
Common Good (forthcoming)
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Understanding Ireland’s Changing Tenure Mix • The long-run role of policy & credit availability• Recent role of housing bust & credit freeze• The advantages of homeownership over rental
- given Ireland’s housing & rental system• Role of rent supplement & housing supports • Uncertainty facing tenants, landlords, investors
& public actors
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It’s systemic not just conjunctural & sectoral
Homeownership• Developers claim its not
profitable to build at current prices
• The price at which it will be profitable to build will not be affordable for many
Rental• Landlords claim a loss at
current rents • The rents & regulations at
which investment will be profitable will be unaffordable & unattractive to many
What links these is the unstable, land-dominated market & failing supply system
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The Current Dualist Framing Rent Control Incentives for
Developers/InvestorsOR
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The Current Dualist Framing Rent Control Incentives for
Developers/InvestorsOR
Need policy on both fronts
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From rent control to secure occupancyand
From ad hoc incentives to coherent supply-side subsidies with conditionality
Secure occupancy Supply-side supports with conditionalityand
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Putting Secure Occupancy & Incentives in a Wider Context
Active land & housing supply managementSecure occupancy Supply-side supports
with conditionalityand
Supply-side subsidies with conditionality
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Putting Secure Occupancy & Incentives in a Wider Context
Active land & housing supply managementSecure occupancy Supply-side supports
with conditionality
Permanent, affordable, rental as a guiding framework for conditional supply-side subsidies
and
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Enhancing the Role of the Private Rental Sector: the Elements
Active land & housing supply managementSecure occupancy Supply-side supports
with conditionality
Permanent, affordable rental as a framework for conditional supply-side subsidies
and
Social Housing Expansion
Resolution of Buy-to-Let
Arrears
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From rent control to secure occupancy
Secure occupancy Supply-side supports with conditionalityand
• Market-sensistive rent regulation•Make leases indefinite•Sale no longer ends a tenancy•Improve dispute resolution
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From rent control to secure occupancy
Secure occupancy Supply-side supports with conditionalityand
•Market-sensistive rent regulation•Make leases indefinite•Sale no longer ends a tenancy•Improve dispute resolution
•Affordable housing for intermediate households•Student & elder housing•Tax reform of rental income •Vacant space•Reducing cost of construction
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Pathways to Permanent Affordable Rental Housing
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Pathways to Permanent Affordable Rental Housing
A strategy that is more than the sum of its parts
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Direct Public Influence on Supply
FinanceRegulation &
Cost
Interdependent Elements of a Housing Policy
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Housing market & rental system are relatedDualist & Speculative
• Unstable prices• Rents rise with asset price for
regulatory & market reasons• Tenants are involuntary & temporary• A ‘housing ladder’• Pressure to borrow, lend & give
demand subsidies • Landlords motivation is capital gain
as much as income stream• They need flexible tenure to achieve
capital gains
Unitary & Land Managed• More stable prices• Predictable rents for regulatory &
market reasons• Tenants are voluntary & long-term• Less ‘housing ladder’• Finance less housing-based,
reliance on supply-side policy• Landlords motivation is income &
long-term asset security• They can bear long tenancies &
predictable rent uprating