contents...ardrums derrinturn johnstown bridge coolock northern cross palmerstown 3 . 12 13...

2 3

Contents

Introduction 6

Executive Summary 8

Location 10

Connectivity 12

The Vision 14

Planning 16

Transport Infrastructure 16

New Apartment Guidelines 18

Summary 19

Growth Area 1 - Existing Planning Permission 20

Growth Area 1 - Feasibility Study No.1 26


Growth Area 3 - Expired Planning Permission 30


Economic Overview 34

Contacts & Further Information 36

Clongriffin DART Station

Portmarnock Golf Club

Baldoyle

Clongriffin

Fr. Collins Park

Sutton

Howth

4 5

Exciting Residential Development Opportunity with Planning Permission in Partindicative site boundary only

6 7

Introduction

RESIDENTIAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Residential completions increased by 23.2% Y/Y

in Q1 2019

18,828 residential dwellings developed in the past

12 months

Dublin has 28.3% of national population with 26.8% of

housing stock

DART Station

100m Dublin Bus

300m Airport

11.8kmDublin Port

14.4km

TRANSPORTATION

CONTRACT

18,828 New dwellings

23.2% Residential completions

26.8% Housingstock28.3%

Nationalpopulation

Ireland is one of the fastest growing economies in the EU

Economic output increased 6.7% in 2018

Dublin’s population rising by 2% per annum

ECONOMIC FACTORS

Residential transactions are currently growing by 4.5% Y/Y

nationally in Q1 2019

New homes sales are up 20.4% Y/Y, compared to only 1.4% in

the second-hand market

Prices currently rising by 3.9% pa nationally

RESIDENTIAL SALES MARKET

6.7% Economic output

20.4%New home sales

Ireland Economic growth

4.5% Residential transaction

2% Dublinpopulation

3.9% Pricerise

Employment growing with 81,200 new jobs created in 12 months to March 2019

Unemployment fallen to 4.8%

Real aggregate disposal income growing by 5.3%

per annum

EMPLOYMENT

Vacancy levels at 1.2% Vacancy levels 4% below Natural Vacancy Rate

Dublin rent increasing by 7.8% per annum

RESIDENTIAL RENTAL MARKET

4.8% Unemployment fall

81,200 New jobscreated

5.3% Disposable income

4% Below natural rates

1.2% Vacancy level

7.8% Dublin rent

TO LET

Measurements are approximate

8 9

Executive Summary• On the instruction of Receiver’s Tom

O’Brien and Simon Coyle, Mazars, Savills is delighted to present Project Shoreline to the market, an impressive residential development opportunity that offers scale, an attractive coastal location and proximity to Dublin City Centre in a single lot.

• Project Shoreline represents a unique opportunity to develop a predominately residentially zoned site that has been divided into two areas known as Growth Area 1 (GA 1) and Growth Area 3 (GA 3). Together, with High Amenity lands, the opportunity extends to approximately 50.77 hectares (125 acres), making it one of the largest residential development opportunities available in Dublin.

• The subject site is situated in Baldoyle, an attractive coastal town in north county Dublin. The site takes a high-profile position, in a highly accessible location with an abundance of public transport facilities within the immediate vicinity.

• GA 1 has the benefit of a full grant of planning for 546 residential units. The proposed scheme incorporates a new town centre and impressive landscaped grounds.

• In addition to the consented scheme, three feasibility studies demonstrate the potential to optimise critical mass on GA 1 and GA 3 (S.P.P) as a result of recent changes to national planning guidelines.

The land holding of approximately 125 acres, to be sold in one lot, comprises of:

Project Shoreline represents

a unique opportunity to

develop two adjacent zoned residential sites

• Approximately 16.66 hectares (41.16 acres).

• Full planning permission for 546 units, 1,917 sq m of commercial accommodation and high amenity lands.

• 161 houses, 62 duplex units and 323 apartments.

• Feasibility Study demonstrates potential uplift in residential unit numbers to 710 - 833 units.


• Zoned ‘Residential’ and ‘Village Centre’ under Local Area Plan.

• Historic planning permission for 483 residential units and a crèche.

• Feasibility Study demonstrates potential for retail accommodation, a crèche and an uplift in residential numbers to 759 units.


Growth Area 1

Growth Area 3

High Amenity Lands

10 11

LocationThe subject site is situated between the Coast Road and Clongiffin DART Station in the established residential coastal town of Baldoyle.

Prospective residents of the scheme can enjoy a selection of local amenities including those of Baldoyle Village, located approximately 1.5 km to the south east of the subject property and those of Sutton, Portmarnock and Howth which are located just beyond Baldoyle. The popular Clarehall Shopping Centre is located within approximately 6 km west of the site, while Dublin City Centre is approximately 14 km to the south.

The area caters for young families, professionals and outdoor enthusiasts with several schools, sports clubs, beaches and public parks in close proximity. Local schools include Saint Mary’s School for Girls, St. Fintan’s High School and St. Marnock’s National School. There are 3 golf clubs within the vicinity; Portmarnock Golf Club, St. Anne’s Golf Club and Sutton Golf Club, as well as GAA and rugby clubs. This coastal location is well known for its beaches with Portmarnock Beach and Burrow Beach within approximately 5 km.

With all that is on offer, the site is ideally placed for residential development, offering proximity to Dublin City Centre combined with much sought-after seaside living.

The site is ideally placed for residential development, offering proximity to Dublin City

Centre combined with seaside living

2

3

2

23

3

44a

N4N4

N7

N7 N81

N4

N3

N2

N2

N11

N11

N31

N31

N11

N81

N81

N81

N7

CorduffCorduff

17

15

1413

12

11

10

9

1

7

6

5

4

2

1

2

5

3

M1

M50

M50

M50

M50

M50

M11

4

4

5

5

7

6

M50

M3

M2

M4

M4

M7

M7

M9

M7

DUBLINAIRPORTDUBLIN

AIRPORT

DUBLINDUBLINDUBLINDUBLIN

BallsbridgeBallsbridge

SandyfordSandyford

StillorganStillorganRatfarnhamRatfarnham

DundrumDundrum

ChurchtownChurchtown

ClonskeaghClonskeagh

TerenureTerenure

TempleogueTempleogue

FoxrockFoxrock CabinteelyCabinteely

LeopardstownLeopardstown

CarrickminesCarrickmines

DunLaoghaire

DunLaoghaire

DonnybrookDonnybrook

DrumcondraDrumcondra

DocklandsDocklands

BeaumontBeaumont

SantrySantryFinglasFinglas

CastleknockCastleknock

LucanLucan

BallyfermotBallyfermot

WalkinstownWalkinstown

CitywestCitywest

BelgardBelgard

TallaghtTallaght

SaggartSaggart

MalahideMalahide

PortmarnockPortmarnock

ClontarfClontarf

ClongriffinClongriffin BALDOYLEBALDOYLE

HowthHowthSuttonSutton

SwordsSwords

DunboyneDunboyne

KilcloonKilcloon

CelbridgeCelbridge

StraffanStraffan

CastledillonCastledillon

BackwestonBackweston

Adamstown Adamstown

Moyglare HallMoyglare HallOngarOngar

LeixlipLeixlip

CloneeClonee

MaynoothMaynooth

RathcoffeyRathcoffey

FanaghFanagh

KilshanroeKilshanroe

The GreenhillThe Greenhill

StaplestownStaplestown

The CottThe Cott

BlackwoodBlackwood

RobertstownRobertstown

AllenwoodAllenwood

KilmeageKilmeage

AllenAllenCarraghCarragh

MilltownMilltown

ClonaghClonagh

NaasNaas

MullacashMullacash

BallymoreEustace

BallymoreEustace

BlessingtonBlessington

ManorKilbrideManor

Kilbride

BallinageeBallinagee

ArdcloughArdcloughClaneClane

KildareKildare

MaddenstownMaddenstown

BallysaxBallysax

EnfieldEnfield

RathroneRathrone

Dun Na SiDun Na SiArdrumsArdrums

DerrinturnDerrinturn

JohnstownBridge

JohnstownBridge CoolockCoolock

NorthernCross

NorthernCross

PalmerstownPalmerstown

3

BALDOYLEBALDOYLE

12 13

ConnectivityBaldoyle offers unrivalled accessibility with strong public transport links and an established road network. The site adjoins Clongriffin DART Station giving access to the City Centre within approximately 20 minutes whilst providing suburban services between Malahide and Belfast.

There are numerous local bus routes including 15, 29a, 31d, 32 and 32x with bus stops positioned in close proximity providing access to the city within approximately 40 minutes.

Accessibility is further enhanced by the R107, the main arterial road linking northern towns and suburbs to the city, situated approximately 3 km to the west. The M50 motorway is within proximity to the property and together they provide access to the City Centre within approximately 30 minutes by car. Dublin Airport is located approximately 12km to the north-west.

Travel Times from Subject Property*

DART - 5 minute walk

Dublin Bus - 7 minute walk

M50 – R107 - 15 minute drive

Dublin Airport - 18 minute drive

DublinAirport

CasementAir Base

CasementAir Base

R118

R119

R119

R828

R827

R116

R116

R115

R117

R117

R826

R111

R802

R105

R131

R103

R105

R105

R124

R124

R112

R825

R118

R113

R113

R118

R131

R807

R807R107

R108

R805

R108

R104

R104

R106

R809

R809

R106

R106

R107

R103

N1

R118

R138

R110

R110

R133

R114

R114

R114

R137

R137N31

N31

N11

M11M50

M50

M50

M50

M4

M50

M1

M1

M50

M50

M50

R132

R132

R108

R122

R122

N81

N81

N82

N7

N7

R113

R810

R148

R109

R113

R113

R136

R136

R134R134

R112

R119

R134

R120

R113

2

3

14

5

N2

Connolly Station

Dun LaoghaireDun Laoghaire

KilbarrackKilbarrack

RahneyRaheny

Dalkey

Killiney

Kilternan

Deansgrange

Blackrock

Booterstown

DundrumGoatsown

Foxrock

Sandyford

Clonskeagh

Rathfarnham

Terenure

Dalkey

Killiney

LoughlintownLoughlintown

CherrywoodCherrywood

Carrickmines

CabinteelyCabinteely

SallynogginSallynoggin

GlenagearyGlenageary

Kilternan

Deansgrange

Blackrock

Booterstown

DundrumGoatsown

StillorganStillorgan

Foxrock

Sandyford

Clonskeagh

Rathmines

BallsbridgeCrumlin

Rathfarnham

Terenure

StackstownGolf Club

StackstownGolf Club

KilboggetPark

MarlayPark

MarlayPark

KilboggetPark

DUBLINDUBLIN

Rathmines

BallsbridgeCrumlin

Clontarf

Drumcondra

Beaumont

Whitehall

Donaghmede

Swords

Sutton

PortmarnockGolf Club

PortmarnockGolf Club

St. AnnesGolf ClubSt. Anne’sGolf Club

St Anne’s ParkSt Anne’s Park

ClontarfBull

IslandBull

Island

Drumcondra

Beaumont

Whitehall

DonaghmedeClongriffinClongriffin

BALDOYLEBALDOYLE

Baigriffin

Swords

Sutton

Balgriffin

PortmarnockPortmarnock

MalahideMalahide

KinsealyKinsealy

ClondalkinClondalkin

PhoenixPark

PhoenixPark

DunsinkDunsink

GrangeCastle

Golf Club

GrangeCastle

Golf Club

NewlandsGolf ClubNewlandsGolf Club

Tallaght

Saggart

CitywestCitywest

Adamstown

Lucan

LiffeyValley

Ballymount

Carrickmines

KimmageKimmage

BluebellBluebell

Howth

Dublin Port

Castleknock

Ashtown

Castleknock

Ashtown

Dublin Port

Port Tunnel

Howth

Baldoyle offers unrivalled accessibility

with strong public transport links and

an established road network

* Please note the above timings are approximate only.

14 15

The VisionIn recent years, Baldoyle has transformed from a quiet seaside village into a popular residential location. The vision for Project Shoreline is to enhance this already thriving community with the development of over 50.77 hectares (125 acres).

Project Shoreline has the potential to offer approximately 1,600 homes in total with GA 1 already having planning permission for 546 residential units, however with detailed review this could be enhanced further, SPP.

In light of recent changes to the national planning policy, the purchaser will benefit from a significant opportunity to enhance the density of the existing planning permission whilst also developing GA 3, subject to planning permission. Two feasibility studies demonstrate the potential for an uplift in density on GA 1 to 710 units or 833 units. GA 3 benefits from a historic planning permission for 483 units setting a precedent for future development. A feasibility study for GA 3 demonstrates the potential for 759 units (SPP).

The scheme incorporates approximatively 27.95 hectares (69.06 acres) of high amenity lands which is intended to be transferred to Fingal County Council by the perspective developer. The lands will enhance the scheme by providing residents with landscaped parks and walkways creating a tranquil environment for the whole community.

The vision for Project Shoreline is to enhance this already thriving community with the development of over

50.77 hectares (125 acres)

16 17

Planning The subject lands fall under the Fingal Development Plan 2017 – 2023 and the Baldoyle Stapolin Local Area Plan 2013 – 2019 (LAP). Under the LAP, the lands are predominantly zoned ‘Residential’ with an area zoned ‘Village Centre’ and ‘High Amenity’. The LAP classifies the sites as Growth Area 1 (GA 1) and Growth Area 3 (GA 3).

GA 1 has full planning permission for 546 residential units and approximately 1,917 sq m (20, 635 sq ft) commercial accommodation. In addition to this, two feasibility studies demonstrate the potential uplift in density for residential dwellings following the change in planning guidelines.

In 2008, GA 3 was granted full planning permission for 483 residential units and a crèche. This planning permission has since expired but sets a precedent for future development.

As a result, a third feasibility study has been created to demonstrate the potential for a revised residential scheme for GA 3.

In addition to the above-mentioned areas, there is approximately 27.96 hectares (69.06 acres) which is zoned ‘High Amenity’. Under the LAP the lands are to be transferred to Fingal County Council allowing them to be taken in charge.

As part of the LAP, a school is required to support the proposed GA 1 development. The Receiver has arranged for a site to be designated for a public school on lands adjacent to the subject lands.

R E D A R C H E S R O A D

ST

AP

OL

I N A

VE

NU

E

LO

NG

FIE

LD

RO

AD

Figure 1: Baldoyle Stapolin Local Area Plan 2013 – 2019

Project Shoreline has the potential to offer approximately 1,600 homes in total SPP with

GA 1 already having planning permission for 546 residential units

GA 1GA 3

Ownership Boundary

Transport InfrastructureTo enhance the existing public transport provisions, the proposed development will incorporate additional bus routes linking to existing routes and Clongriffin DART Station. The proposed scheme also incorporates cycle pathways, two ‘green corridors’, Ireland’s Eye Avenue and Stapolin Avenue and primary roads, Longfield Road and Red Arches Road.

New Road Network

2 ‘Green’ Corridors

CyclePathways

ClongriffinDart Station

AdditionalBus Routes

GA1

GA3

GA3

18 19

New Apartment Guidelines Under the new planning guidelines, design standards for build to sell apartments and build to rent apartments have been revised, as demonstrated below which will allow for an increase in density of residential housing.

Build to Sell Build to Rent

12 apartments per core max No restriction on no. of apartments per core

Restrictions on studio & 1 beds No restriction on the mix of units

Majority of units to be 10% larger than the minimum Majority do not need to be 10% larger

50% of suburban to be dual aspect Dual aspect reduced to 33% close to public transport

1 car space per unit & 1 visitor space for every 3-4 units Minimal car parking requirements near public transport

1 bike space per bed space & 1 visitor bike space for every 2 units

1 bike space per bed space & 1 visitor bike space for every 2 units

Minimum Apartment Size

Type Studio 1 bed 2 bed(3 people)

2 bed(4 people)

3 bed

Size 37 sq m 45 sq m 63 sq m 73 sq m 90 sq m

New Height Guidelines

In order to assist with increased density, new Government policy also outlines a desire for increased building heights in appropriate urban locations.

Summary

GA 1 Planning

Permission

GA 1 Feasibility

Study 1

GA 1 Feasibility

Study 2

GA 3 Expired

Planning Permission

GA 3 Feasibility

Study 3

Apartments & Duplex Units 385 557 680 376 681

Houses 161 153 153 107 78

TOTAL 546 710 833 483 759

Following the revised design guidelines, there is the potential to further increase the densities by building on the what is outlined in the feasibility studies (S.P.P) with increased building heights and reconfiguration of block layouts.

20 21

Zone Description Consented Height

A Village Centre comprising ground floor retail units, apartments and main link to Clongriffin DART Station 6 storeys

B Primary open space area known as Stapolin Haggard with a mix of residential housing and apartments 4 storeys

C Residential units comprising of apartments and houses and a central park 3 storeys

D 3-4 bed semi-detached houses 2 storeys

Growth Area 1Existing Planning Permission

GA 1 has a full grant of planning (reference no. F16A/0412) for the development of a high-end mixed-use scheme. The proposed scheme comprises 546 residential units and a village centre with high amenity lands. The final grant was permitted in November 2017 by An Bord Pleanala for 10 years.

Under the planning permission, Henry J. Lyons designed a scheme that is subdivided into zones A, B, C and D comprising of the following elements:

The proposed scheme comprises 546 residential units and a village centre with high amenity lands

The proposed scheme offers a range of housing options catering for a variety of people and households, coupled with local amenities and outdoor space. The residential element includes 1, 2 and 3 bed apartments, 2 bed duplex apartments and 3 and 4 bed houses. The commercial element has been designed to create a vibrant neighbourhood centre incorporating a range of retailers including a café, convenience store and crèche.

As part of the planning permission, interim boundary treatments were indicated to the back of the footpath along the route referred to as Stapolin Way. These flank the open space area referred to as the Haggard until such time as Growth Area 2 is delivered. A strip of this area, as indicated on the plan in Figure 1, is not within the control of the Receiver. It is noted that the permitted carriageway

and footpath do remain within the control of the Receiver. In this regard, Conditions 3 and 6 attached to the planning permission require detail design of footpaths, carriageways, and boundary treatments to be agreed with the planning authority prior to commencement of development. In the event that the prospective purchaser should wish to implement the planning permission, we are advised by RPS Group that an alternative treatment along this boundary can be proposed through a compliance submission for agreement with the planning authority. Alternatively, in the event a prospective purchaser should wish to materially amend another element of the planning permission as approved, appropriate treatments to this boundary could also be included as part of an amended planning application.

growth area 1

22 23

Zone A

Zone B

Zone C

Zone D

Accommodation ScheduleExisting Planning Permission

Zone Use Type Beds No. Units Size (sq m) Size (sq ft )

A

Apartment 1 5 - -

Apartment 2 162 - -

Apartment 3 28 - -

Convenience - - 461 4,962

Retail 1 (Café) - - 200 2,153

Retail 2 - - 88 947

Retail 3 - - 99 1,066

Retail 4 - - 99 1,066

Retail 5 - - 90 969

Crèche - - 880 9,472

Sub Total 195 1,917 20,635

Zone Use Type Beds No. Units

B

Apartment 1 7

Apartment 2 69

Apartment 3 4

Apartment (own door) 2 16

Duplex 2 20

House 3 23

House 4 25

Sub Total 164


C



Duplex 2 42

House 3 58

House 4 43

Sub Total 175


D House 3 12

Sub Total 12

TYPE 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED

TOTAL 20 333 125 68

% Mix of Total 4% 61% 23% 12%

TOTAL APARTMENTS 323

TOTAL DUPLEX 62

TOTAL HOUSES 161

TOTAL NO. UNITS 546

CO

AS

T R

OA

D

RED ARCHES RD

CLONGRIFFINDART

STATION

GA1

GA1 Location

24 25

34.0 M2

Kitchen / Living

15.9 M2

Double Bed

11.5 M2

Twin Bed

3.4 M2

St.

1.3 M2

St.

3.7 M2

St.8500

6000

2800

4366

2800

4100 1200

5400

1500

Reference: 2b.t1aQuantity: 8Unit Type: 2 Bed / 4 Person ApartmentArea: 88.6 SqmStorage: 8.5 Sqm

Type: 2b.t1a

Block:

Unit No:

Ref Ga

Ref Ga

15.9 M2

Twin Room

11.5 M2

Double Bed

48.6 M2

Kitchen / Living

3.2 M2

St.

1.3 M2

St.

3.4 M2

St.

6852

2800

2800

5400

1200 4100

6000

8500

1500

Reference: 2b.t4Quantity: 15Unit Type: Large 2 Bed / 4 Person ApartmentArea: 102.6 SqmStorage: 7.9 Sqm

Type: 2b.t4

Block:

Unit No:

Ref Ga

Ref Ga

30.6 M2

Kitchen / Living

12.0 M2

Double Bed

13.6 M2

Twin Room

1.9 M2

St

3.2 M2

St.

1.3 M2

St.

0.6 M2

St

1500

1200

4000

8500

2825

3400

4000

3965

Reference: 2b.t3Quantity: 15Unit Type: 2 Bed / 4 Person ApartmentArea: 86.5 SqmStorage: 7.0 Sqm

Type: 2b.t3

Block:

Unit No:

Ref Ga

Ref Ga

12.2 M2

Double Bed

1.3 M2

St

1.3 M2

St

16.9 M2

Twin Bed

2.2 M2

St.

30.1 M2

Kitchen / Living

2.2 M2

St.

3575

1200

4550 1400

7200

3400

2800

1800

4100


Type: 2b.t2

Block:

Unit No:

Ref Ga

Ref Ga

11.5m2Double Bed

30.0m2Kitchen / Living

15.9m2Twin Bed

3.4m2

St.

1.3m2St.

3.2m2St.

2800

8500

6000

4100 1200

5400

1500

3900

2800


Type: 2b.t1

Block:

Unit No:

Ref Ga

Ref Ga

2 Bed Apartments

30.0 m2Kitchen / Living

13.2 m2Double Bed

1.3 m2St

3.2 m2St

1650

8500

1200

3900

6000

4000

3325

41.7m2Living/Dining

1.75m2Storage

WC

elec. meterUPC Eircon

0.92m2Storage

15.3m2Bedroom 1

11.6m2Bedroom 2

7.1m2Bedroom 3

1.68m2Storage

0.6m2Storage

0.99m2Storage

En Suite Bathroom

Growth Area 1Existing Planning Permission Sample Floorplans

Apartment - 2 Bed

Apartment - 1 Bed

Two Storey House - 3 Bed

Ground Floor First Floor

30.5 m2Living/ Dining

11.47m2Bedroom 2

3.35 m2Storage

WC

13.06m2Bedroom 1

1.23 m2Storage

1.43 m2Storage

hp

3673

2150

3381 13031357

1051

2100

4148 2615

4744

5325

1896

1800

3710

1155

13.71 m2Bedroom 2

hp

2.26 m2Storage

Bathroom

0.78 m2Storage

18.4 m2Bedroom 1

3805

3602

1700

2915

2625

1400

4820 1950

En Suite

WC

35.96 m2Living/ Kitchen /Dining

2.04 m2Storage

8418

3651

5605

1500

1550

4386

3119

0.96 m2Storage

Terrace Area31.23m2

625

Duplex Apartment - 2 Bed

First Floor Second Floor

GA 1 Planning application boundary

Proposed sitepLan

26 27

Feasibility study 1 incorporates 710 residential units equating to an increase of 164 units when compared to the planning permission. This has been achieved by designing narrower blocks whilst retaining the consented block heights and the removal of 8 houses.

Zone Use Type Beds No. Units Size (sq m) Size (sq ft)

A

Apartment 1 134 - -

Apartment 2 90 - -

Apartment 3 25 - -


Retail 1 (Café) - - 200 2,153

Retail 2 - - 88 947

Retail 3 - - 99 1,066

Retail 4 - - 99 1,066

Retail 5 - - 90 969

Crèche - - 880 9,472

Sub Total 249 1,917 20,635


B

Apartment 1 91

Apartment 2 76

Apartment 3 15


Duplex 2 8

House 3 21

House 4 23

Sub Total 238


C

Apartment 1 32

Apartment 2 36

Apartment 3 6



Duplex 2 24

House 3 56

House 4 41

Sub Total 211


D House 3 12

Sub Total 12


TOTAL 257 246 135 64

% Mix of Total 36% 35% 19% 9%


TOTAL DUPLEX 32

TOTAL HOUSES 153

TOTAL NO. UNITS 710

GA 1 - Feasibility Study 1 Consented Height

Zone A

Zone B

Zone C

Zone D

5 Storey

4 Storey

3 Storey

28 29

The second feasibility study demonstrates the potential to increase the number of units again by adding 287 units to the consented design. This may be achieved with the addition of an extra floor to each block, having narrower blocks and the removal of 8 houses.


A

Apartment 1 162 - -

Apartment 2 108 - -

Apartment 3 30 - -


Retail 1 (Café) - - 200 2,153

Retail 2 - - 88 947

Retail 3 - - 99 1,066

Retail 4 - - 99 1,066

Retail 5 - - 90 969

Crèche - - 880 9,472

Sub Total 300 1,917 20,635


B

Apartment 1 115

Apartment 2 94

Apartment 3 19


Duplex 2 8

House 3 21

House 4 23

Sub Total 284


C

Apartment 1 44

Apartment 2 48

Apartment 3 8



Duplex 2 24

House 3 56

House 4 41

Sub Total 237


D House 3 12

Sub Total 12


TOTAL 329 294 146 64

% Mix of Total 39% 35% 18% 8%


TOTAL DUPLEX 32

TOTAL HOUSES 153

TOTAL NO. UNITS 833

GA 1 - Feasibility Study 2

Zone A

Zone B

Zone C

Zone D

6 Storey

5 Storey

4 Storey

3 Storey

Increased Building Height

30 31

Growth area 3

6 Storey

5 Storey

4 Storey

3 Storey

2 storey


AApartment 2 137

Apartment 3 5

Sub Total 142


ADuplex Apartment 1 60

Duplex Apartment 2 174

Sub Total 234


A House 2 40

House 4 67

Sub Total 107


TOTAL 60 351 5 67

% Mix of Total 12% 73% 1% 14%


TOTAL DUPLEX 234

TOTAL HOUSES 107

TOTAL NO. UNITS 483

Expired Planning Permission

In 2008, GA 3 was granted full planning permission for 483

residential units and a crèche

CO

AS

T R

OA

D

RED ARCHES RD

CLONGRIFFINDART

STATION

GA3

GA3 Location

32 33

Growth area 3

Zone A

Zone B

Zone C

Zone D

10 Storey

6 Storey

5 Storey

4 Storey

3 Storey

Feasibility Study 3 A feasibility study has been designed to demonstrate the potential to deliver 759 residential units comprising of apartments and houses divided between zones A-D within GA 3. The following sets out the accommodation schedule for GA 3.


A

Apartment 1 128 - -

Apartment 2 196 - -

Apartment 3 58 - -


Retail 1 (Café) - - 200 2,153

Retail 2 - - 100 1,076

Retail 3 - - 100 1,076

Retail 4 - - 100 1,076

Retail 5 - - 100 1,076

Sub Total 382 900 9,688


B

Apartment 1 20

Apartment 2 16

Apartment 3 8

House 3 24

House 4 33

Sub Total 101


C

Apartment 1 9 - -

Apartment 2 12 - -

Apartment 3 6 - -

House 3 11 - -

House 4 10 - -

Crèche - - 800 8,611

Sub Total 48 800 8,611


D

Apartment 1 104 - -

Apartment 2 58 - -

Apartment 3 66 - -

Convenience - - 1,800 19,375

Retail 1 (Café) - - 300 3,229

Retail 2 - - 200 2,153

Retail 3 - - 200 2,153

Retail 4 - - 200 2,153

Retail 5 - - 100 1,076

Retail 6 - - 100 1,076

Sub Total 228 2,900 31,216


TOTAL 261 282 173 43

% Mix of Total 34% 37% 23% 6%


TOTAL HOUSES 78

TOTAL NO. UNITS 759

34 35

ECONOMIC OVERVIEWIreland’s economy continues to perform especially well with output rising at one of the fastest rates within the EU. Underpinning this is the robust performance of the labour market. Employment is currently growing by 3.7% per annum – a solid rate of jobs growth by any historical or comparative standard. Unemployment has fallen to 4.8% and real aggregate disposable incomes are growing by 5.3% a year due to a combination of modest pay increases, further tax cuts and increased numbers at work. While the capacity remains for further jobs growth, Ireland’s labour resources are gradually being sweated more intensively; in addition to lower unemployment there has been an uptick in labour force participation, a decline in part time work and an increase in the average number of hours worked. All of this suggests that wage inflation is likely to strengthen, which should be supportive of the housing market.

Figure 1: Unemployment Rate

Housing Market

TransactionsResidential transactions rose by 4.5% nationally in Q1 2019. However, the pace of growth in new home sales outstripped that of second-hand properties, reflecting the increase in residential construction. A key driver of demand is demographic pressure, with Dublin’s population increasing by 2.0% compared to 1.5% for the rest of the country. As such, annual sales in Dublin have risen at a slightly faster rate than the country as a whole.

Supply, Demand and House Prices18,828 residential dwelling units were completed in the rolling 12 months to Q1 2019, up 23.2% year-on-year. Of these, 7,204 (38.3% of total output) were in Dublin. This compares to the capital’s current 28.3% share of the national population and 26.8% share of the housing stock, demonstrating that the focus of new development is on the capital. However, while residential supply is clearly increasing, it is not yet sufficient to meet demand. Having extensively analysed the key components of housing demand – namely population growth, average household size, obsolescence of existing stock and factoring in a level of compensation for a backlog of undersupply in recent years – Savills estimates an annual housebuilding requirement of around 35,000 units per annum out to 2022, with approximately 37% of this requirement in Dublin.

Comparing our current supply and demand estimates we envisage that the market, both nationally and in Dublin, will remain undersupplied until at least 2023. Consequently, competition for available properties remains in place with the net result being competitive bidding leading to price and rent inflation.

Figure 2: Housing Completions vs. Requirement - National

Nationally residential prices are rising by 3.9% per annum, while the rate of growth in the capital has come off a three-year high of 13.0.% in April 2018 to 1.2% currently. About 12.2% of this slowdown can be attributed to the base effect – as average prices rise, the same money value uplift naturally leads to smaller-and-smaller percentage increases. Mortgage restrictions have also contributed to the moderating inflation, particularly as loan-to-income ratios have become more binding. However, this factor should not be overplayed. In the starter home market in particular, cash investors (both individuals and institutions) are ready and willing to compete for properties that lending restrictions are preventing owner occupiers from buying. Indeed, it is notable that cash buyers still account for 54.3% of all residential transactions. A more cogent analysis therefore is that house price inflation in Dublin is primarily slowing due to a narrowing gap between supply and demand. As these supply and demand curves converge, the market will become better balanced and both price and rent inflation will ease. Given the current extent of undersupply however, we will continue to see house price inflation for the foreseeable future, albeit at a moderating rate. We are currently forecasting annual price growth of about 4-7% and 3-5% both nationally and in Dublin in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Private Rented Sector (PRS)Demand for rented accommodation continues to be driven by the affordability challenges of home ownership. Despite an expansion in the overall stock of properties in Dublin’s PRS, vacancy has fallen to just 1.38% (Figure 3). This is significantly below the Natural Vacancy Rate (NVR) which Savills econometrically estimates to be 5.19% in the capital. Theory suggests that if the actual vacancy rate lies beneath the NRV the market is undersupplied and rents will be rising, and that is precisely what is happening.

Rents nationally are increasing by 6.9%, while the pace of growth in Dublin is higher at 7.8% despite being a designated Rent Pressure Zone (RPZ). Rental growth in properties that have not previously been let and those that have undergone substantial changes – both of which are exempted from the rent caps – would appear to explain why growth in the capital continues to exceed the regulated rate of 4.0% per annum. Looking ahead, Savills’ econometric model is predicting rental inflation in Dublin of around 6.5% and 4.6% in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Figure 3: Vacancy Rate in Dublin’s Private Rented Sector

Ireland’s economy continues to perform especially well with output rising at one of the fastest rates within the EU.

2017

2018

2019

(f)

2020

(f)

2021

(f)

2022

(f)

1716151413121110

9876543

%

UN

ITS

10,000

5,000

0

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Source: CSO

Requirements Completions

2000

Q1

2001

Q1

2002

Q1

2003

Q1

2004

Q1

2005

Q1

2006

Q1

2007

Q1

2008

Q1

2009

Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

2016

Q1

2017

Q1

2018

Q1

2019

Q1

Sources: Savills Research, CSO

2017

2018

2019

(f)

2020

(f)

2021

(f)

2022

(f)

1716151413121110

9876543

%

UN

ITS

10,000

5,000

0

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Source: CSO

Requirements Completions

2000

Q1

2001

Q1

2002

Q1

2003

Q1

2004

Q1

2005

Q1

2006

Q1

2007

Q1

2008

Q1

2009

Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

2016

Q1

2017

Q1

2018

Q1

2019

Q1

Sources: Savills Research, CSO

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

%

Source: Savills Research, CSO, Daft.ie

2008

Q2

2008

Q4

2009

Q2

2009

Q4

2010

Q2

2010

Q4

2011

Q2

2011

Q4

2012

Q2

2012

Q4

2013

Q2

2013

Q4

2014

Q2

2014

Q4

2015

Q2

2015

Q4

2016

Q2

2016

Q4

2017

Q2

2017

Q4

2018

Q2

2018

Q4

Dublin VR Dublin NVR

36 37

Data RoomFurther information is attainable through a dedicated web based data room www.project-shoreline.com

SALES AGENTS

SOLICITORByrne Wallace88 Harcourt StreetSaint Kevin’s, Dublin 2

www.byrnewallace.com

Receivers

Savills Ireland the Vendor/Lessor give note that the particulars and information contained in this brochure do not form any part of any offer or contract and are for guidance only. The particulars, descriptions, dimensions, references to condition, permissions or licences for use or occupation, access and any other details, such as prices, rents or any other outgoings are for guidance only and are subject to change. Maps and plans are not to scale and measurements are approximate. Whilst care has been taken in the preparation of this brochure intending purchasers, Lessees or any third party should not rely on particulars and information contained in this brochure as statements of fact but must satisfy themselves as to the accuracy of details given to them. Neither Savills Ireland nor any of its employees have any authority to make or give any representation or warranty (express or implied) in relation to the property and neither Savills Ireland nor any of its employees nor the vendor or lessor shall be liable for any loss suffered by an intending purchaser/Lessees or any third party arising from the particulars or information contained in this brochure. Prices quoted are exclusive of VAT (unless otherwise stated) and all negotiations are conducted on the basis that the purchasers/lessees shall be liable for any VAT arising on the transaction. This brochure is issued by Savills Ireland on the understanding that any negotiations relating to the property are conducted through it. All maps produced by permission of the Ordnance Survey Ireland Licence No AU 001799 © Government of Ireland. Designed and produced by Creativeworld Tel +353 1 447 0553

John SwarbriggDirectorDevelopment+3531 618 [email protected]

Ebba MowatAssociate Development+353 1 618 [email protected]

Anneliese CharlesworthSurveyorDevelopment+353 1 618 [email protected]

Savills33 Molesworth StreetDublin 2, Ireland

www.savills.iePSRA - 002233

MazarsBlock 3 Harcourt CentreHarcourt RoadDublin 2

Alison O’Sullivan +353 1 691 [email protected]

TitleA title summary is available in the property data room.

ViewingsViewings strictly by appointment and to be arranged with the sole selling agent.

Clongriffin DART Station

Portmarnock Golf Club

Baldoyle

Tom O’Brien of Mazars

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