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European Centre for theDevelopment of Vocational Training

Scenarios and Strategiesfor Vocational Education and Training in Europe

Report about the survey undertaken in the framework of the joint CEDEFOP/ETF project in the United Kingdom

by Tom Leney and Alison Wolf, Institute for Education, University of London and Mike Coles, Qualification and Cirriculum Authority (QCA), London

Contents

Page

Section 1 Introduction and overview 1

Section 2 Scenarios – a useful tool? 5

Section 3 The results of the UK survey 8

Section 4 The European Report 15

Section 5 The UK seminar 17

Section 6 Recommendations 25

Appendix I UK Responses to the questionnaires 26

Appendix 2 Comments made by respondents to the questionnaires 32

Appendix 3 VET systems in the UK: An outline of recent changes 49

“Everything that’s in the world when you are born is just normal. Anything that gets invented between then and when you turn 30 is incredibly exciting and with any luck you can make a career out of it. Anything that gets invented after you’re 30 is the end of civilisation as we

know it until it’s been around for 10 years, when it gradually turns out to be all right really.”

Douglas Adams, A Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Internet (Sunday Times, 29 August 1999)

Section 1 Introduction and overview

This section of the report introduces the European VET Scenarios Project to the participants in the UK seminar, and provides an overview of the results that are emerging from the first phase of the project in the UK and across Europe.

The aims of the project The project is developing a range of alternative scenarios for the future development of vocational education and training (VET) in the participating member states of the European Union (EU) and in several central and eastern European (CEE) countries1. The project is also exploring the usefulness of VET scenarios as a tool to improve our understanding of VET systems in their various contexts, in the hope that they can become a useful basis for informing policy makers at national and European level.

The objectives of the European VET Scenarios Project are:

1. To develop a method for constructing scenarios for VET - by linking and making sense of a range of trends and strategies.

2. To gather and analyse data on the views of experts - so as to be able to build, at least in a preliminary way, alternative national and European scenarios.

3. To explore with policy makers, social partners and other stakeholders the potential of VET scenarios as a policy and decision-making tool.

The research in the UK is being conducted at the Institute of Education in London in collaboration with QCA.

The seminarThe UK national seminar is being held as the project comes towards the end of its first phase. Participants in the seminar have an expertise in associated policy development and/or research. The objectives of the seminar are to consider the UK data in the light of European data; and to make a first attempt to develop the range of scenarios that have arisen from UK and European research. Another purpose of the seminar is to discuss potentially useful strategies for operation within these scenarios and to gain advice on potentially useful methods for the second phase of the project.

‘Scenarios’Clearly, it is helpful to provide a working definition. We take scenarios to be images of expected or hoped-for futures. Creating scenarios means building up narrative descriptions of the future and trying to focus attention on important causal processes and key points of decision making. This involves linking trends, expectations, causal factors and strategies. Here, we are looking at a ten-year time frame.

Our research focused on ‘expected’ aspects of scenarios, but respondents’ comments often highlighted what they ‘hoped for’.

1 The participants are specified on the cover of the report. The Max Goote Centre in Amsterdam is co-ordinating, and the project is co-sponsored by CEDEFOP and the European Training Foundation (ETF)

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Because the whole purpose of scenario thinking is to explore the inter-relationship between trends and strategies, accuracy in predicting the future is not necessarily the best measure of a good scenario. In fact, scenario building might be particularly useful in times when change is rapid, but outcomes are pretty uncertain. Criteria for a useful range of scenarios include their plausibility and the usefulness of each scenario in policy making.

We take VET to refer to both initial and continuing vocational education and training. Section 2 of this report will consider how scenarios thinking might be applied in the field of VET.

Data collection in the UK and across EuropeEarlier this year, the partners in the eleven participating countries jointly developed three questionnaires, then each sent some 600 questionnaires in total to 10 categories of experts. In the UK one of the questionnaires was sent to each respondent. The respondents were selected from nationally published listings to comprise 10 categories of expects in a range of fields relating to VET. This generated some 210 responses and has provided data as to the views of a range of expert stakeholders concerning future trends and appropriate strategies for VET and related contexts.

The questionnaires were divided into three contexts: Economy and technology; Employment and the labour market; and, Training, skills and knowledge. In each context the respondents were asked to score and comment on the importance and likelihood of 23 trends and the relevance of 20 strategies.

While the small size of the sample in each country (linked to a high degree of consensus on many issues in the UK) means that some of the national results must be treated with caution, they are useful. The international results should provide an accurate cross-section of stakeholders’ views as to the future of vocational education and training across Europe.

The analysis of the data gathered through this survey has brought us to the point where we can begin to construct scenarios for VET in the UK.

The UK – main conclusionsHere, we draw out the salient points from the survey conducted in the UK. Section 3 of this report gives more detail of each of the UK findings. Appendix 1 lists all the trends that respondents were questioned about, and likelihood and importance that they attributed to each one.

Many of the questions across all three questionnaires deal with the wide range of factors linked to what is now usually called globalisation, and the impact that these factors will have on the economy, working life and training. The UK survey indicates a striking consensus that these factors will have a major impact over the next decade. Most UK respondents believe that market-driven changes, rather than social considerations, are set to dominate.

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There is less of a consensus, however, concerning the likelihood and importance of partnerships developing between different players, and of the role of sectoral organisations, regions and SMEs.

There is also less of a consensus about the impact of demographic factors – such as the ageing of the population and migration. Furthermore, predictions about the impact of changes on different age and social groups vary. Consider, for example, the impact of young people’s transitions through education and training to work on economic development and social exclusion. We consider that these factors merit further investigation as we turn from the trends to scenario building.

In terms of VET, our respondents anticipate strongly a number of trends. VET is likely to become increasingly outcome-based, and courses and qualifications are likely to become more individualised and differentiated. ICT will become a normal part of education and training; key, transferable skills will gain in importance. Individuals will be expected to take more responsibility for their own training. Finally, education and training policies will become more integrated with other policies and strategies.

Turning to strategies, we found no major differences between the views of different stakeholders as to who should take responsibility for implementing particular strategies. The small size of the UK sample made it impossible to compare and contrast all constituent groups. However, we could carry out grouped comparisons. These showed overwhelming agreement between those involved in the private and public sectors, including observers and researchers, as to the relative importance of different agencies in implementing VET strategies. Here, the results create some ambiguity concerning the role of individuals in managing their own learning. In spite of the importance attributed to this in the trends analysis, respondents ascribe very little importance to individuals in developing VET strategies. Interestingly, the European Commission is seen as having quite a significant role.

Further statistical analysis (factor analysis) that we have conducted points up the important of several combinations of factors. For the economy and technology these are, inter alia, the following clusters: factors associated with industrial restructuring; those linked with the impact of changes on cultures and people’s lifestyles; factors associated with what is now often called the knowledge society.

In the employment context, two interesting clusters emerge. One links the mobility of labour and multiculturalism. Those who think that increased labour mobility among jobs is most likely expect greater multiculturalism and migration, and vice versa. The other links change with patterns of social exclusion. Pessimistic and optimistic views, which we think worth exploring further, are emerging.

Factors relating directly to VET developments remain difficult to interpret on the evidence we have. However, one emerging factor – which clearly links to many of the comments that respondents took the time to make across all three questionnaires – indicates an emerging dichotomy between optimists and pessimists amongst respondents.

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Underlying many of the doubts expressed (here we refer to ‘hoped for’ as opposed to expected futures) seems to be the tension between the development of a flexible, demand-led system and one that can guarantee access and combat social exclusion. Strikingly, companies are seen as likely to play only a marginal role in the training of the unemployed and those preparing for work.

The draft European reportHappily, the first draft of the European report became available, just before the national seminar took place. We distributed it to participants with their final papers, a week or so in advance of the seminar.

The European Report, which is based on the data from all the participating countries, confirms our findings and – because of all the additional data available – is able to take aspects of the analysis further than we can. While outcomes differ between countries, there is also a considerable degree of consistency and similarity. Whether this applies only to the pressures that VET systems need to respond to, or whether it will also extend to strategies and solutions that different countries adopt will be interesting to follow through.

The co-ordinating team in Amsterdam used the multi-national data to suggest preliminary areas of uncertainty for each of the three main contexts. Two variants are offered for Context C.

We set these out below.

Figure I: European areas of uncertainty (provisional)

Context Interactive issues identified for building scenariosA Economy and

technologyThe extent to which companies restructure to become/ remain competitiveThe extent to which partnerships are formed with VET providers

B Employment and labour market

The extent of labour mobility

The extent of modernisation occurring in the workplace

C Training, skills and knowledge First Version

The extent to which VET providers are responsive to changing needs

The demand for key or transferable skills, alongside specific skills needed in the work setting

C Training, skills and knowledge Second Version

The extent to which training is an individual responsibility

The extent to which training protects the interests of certain social groups

Section 4 of this report builds up the suggested scenarios. The draft European report provides detail and more background.

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Section 2 Scenarios – a useful tool?

The notion of scenarios has strong connotations through common sense and everyday use, so it is worth pausing to outline the main aspects of the methodology that we are adopting.

Here, we also set scenarios thinking alongside two other ways of involving stakeholders in policy development and formulation. One is used frequently by the government in the UK, the other developed mainly in France.

Constructing scenariosWe have traced how the project is developing. We have conducted a survey of experts through a postal questionnaire and analysed the results. We hope that discussions at the seminar will help to develop an understanding of the basic trends and the key uncertainties, and explore how the uncertainties relate to one another. Thus, we are attempting to identify themes for building scenarios. This means taking continuity, turbulence and uncertainty into account.

The methodology developed in the Netherlands and elsewhere usually selects the two main, identified uncertainties as the poles for scenario building. This allows us to construct a grid with four scenarios. Possible variables for VET related contexts are suggested at the end of Section 1 and developed in Section 4 of this report.

Figure II: Scenario Construction

A1 A2

B1 Scenario 1 Scenario 2

B2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

We could refine and extend the model by building in ‘mid’ positions for factor X or Y. In any case, we will need to check the scenarios for plausibility and consistency. Could the scenarios develop in the timescale adopted? Do they take the most important uncertainties into account? Are they useful conceptually to researchers? Do they help policymakers to move beyond what several respondents have referred to as ‘short-termism’?

If the outcome of the research is successful, we would hope to see the scenarios thinking adopted, when appropriate, as a policy tool and as part of the frame of reference for deciding research and development priorities.

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Three European methods for involving participants in policy formationIn public sector and government-led policy developments in the UK, public consultation normally follows the publication of a green or white paper, or some other consultation document. In France, while different kinds of consultation are commonplace, the ‘observatory’ is a mechanism that has developed to involve key stakeholders in policy decisions to tackle identified problems. In the Netherlands there is a growing interest in scenario building as a flexible tool for longer-term strategy development, encouraging clear but flexible visions of the future to assist policy formation. Each tool has its purposes, and each operates in a rather different way. Of course, they are not mutually exclusive. Each of the three methods is discussed below.

The UKIn the UK we are used to the publication of a consultation document in which the major thrust of policy development is already decided on, but where much of the detail and some of the key areas for decision have yet to be put in place. A good example of this is the current DfEE White Paper on the institutional structures for lifelong learning. Many of the fundamentals are already decided on as government policy. The decision to replace the Further Education Funding Council (FEFC) and Training and Enterprise Councils (TECs) with a Learning and Skills Council and to place the management of the development of lifelong learning on a regional basis has already been taken. Consequently, the consultation concerns important matters, but not the key policy decisions. Similarly, the DfEE’s recent green paper on reforming the teaching profession established the main thrust of policy for the payment, structure and performance management of the profession, and consulted on all the key details. Interestingly, this green paper attracted the largest response ever to a DfEE consultation exercise, and most of the respondents rejected at least one of the main tenets on which the policy is based. It is worth noting that public consultation in the UK over the past two decades has had a tendency to be built around what the government has seen as key necessities, rather than key uncertainties. A wide range of working and task groups (such as those set up in the DTI by the last government concerning the formation of engineers) undertake the preliminary work

FranceFor aspects of social policy, policy making involves the public authorities working closely with the social partners. A tool called the ‘observatory’ is often used to develop effective policies to tackle particular problems, such as high levels of unemployment among young people in a particular region. Two sets of ‘social actors’ are involved. At an early stage, officials and researchers assemble and present the full range of data and issues that relate to the whole policy area in question. Once the data are in place, the policy makers gather together in the observatory (actually or virtually) and, on the basis of the wide range of information and angles provided, consider a range of strategies and attempt to work out the most viable policy solutions to the identified problem. In the French system, and in the example given above, the social partners (notably, employers’ and employees’ representatives) are included as policy makers, and they have a shared role in managing issues of training and employment policy. The term ‘observatory’ is in common usage in France for the process outlined above and – while it lacks a certain resonance in English – the term does convey the methodology quite well. Because there are two main stages, the data

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gathering process is often referred to as ‘constructing the platform’ and the decision-making process involving the social partners as the work ‘in the observatory’.

The NetherlandsThis report focuses on the construction of scenarios, and we have already attempted to summarise some of the key aspects. Both public and private sector organisations have developed scenario thinking in the Netherlands.

It may be illustrative to indicate briefly how scenarios are used to improve decision making by Royal Dutch Shell. Shell has been developing scenarios as part of its strategic thinking since the early 1970s to try to ensure that the organisation can adapt quickly and flexibly, as a major company in a fast-changing and unpredictable world. The company attempts to improve decision making by developing multiple scenarios against a background of possible future environments. This background includes the issues that concern the company most closely; it also includes elements in the environment that are fairly predictable, ‘trend breakers’ (whose outcome is unpredictable but whose dynamics can be understood) and, finally, potential major surprises.

This involves four steps. The first step is to select the issues. Some issues, such as economic growth and energy prices, appear in most Shell scenarios. Others reflect changing events. The second step is to analyse the main areas of concern. This should help to determine the driving forces, critical uncertainties and possible discontinuities, and includes a range of factors including energy, social change and the environment. The third step is to organise the scenarios around a logical concept. Most commonly, this produces two or four alternative scenarios. Finally, the most useful scenarios are selected and given sharper focus. It is important that, while decision makers should see their concerns reflected in these scenarios, the scenarios should also enable them to reach new understanding.

Scenarios - a useful tool? We have already pointed out that the policy tools that we have introduced into the discussion are not mutually exclusive. It would be interesting to explore whether each can be used most readily in particular social, economic and political contexts. It would also be helpful to explore the kinds of problems that each is most appropriate in tackling in the future development of VET and related fields of activity.

We want to suggest that scenarios thinking may help to meet three challenges. Firstly, how to build model pathways for the future that are not ‘single track’, and which can take account of both likely and highly uncertain factors. Secondly, how to link trends and strategies in a way that is both realistic and flexible. Thirdly, how to develop a way of formulating policy that takes longer-term factors (and the associated uncertainties) effectively into account, and is not limited primarily to short-term problems.

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Section 3 The results of the UK survey

The survey helps us to identify expert respondents’ perceptions of key trends in VET and the related fields of economy and technology, employment and the labour market. This section of the report looks at the responses to the questionnaires, then summarises the further factor analysis that we have conducted.

Questionnaire responsesResponses to the questionnaires are summarised in Appendix A, where we have listed, for each question:

1. the percentage of respondents who consider it either likely or almost certain that a given trend will be realised by 2010;

2. the percentage who consider that a given trend is either important or very important for the future of vocational training.

A large proportion of the questions in all three questionnaires dealt with various aspects of globalisation, and its accompanying economic effects and impact on skill requirements. It is only in the last few years that these have become widely discussed, and in many cases the empirical evidence cannot be definitive (because we are talking about perceived trends and likely future changes, not completed developments.) What is striking about our results, therefore, is the degree to which our respondents display consensus.

On only 12 of the 69 questions do we find that less than half of our respondents think the development to be less than likely/almost certain. In a large number, over 80 per cent of respondents agree that a trend is likely. As for importance, for every single question a majority of respondents consider the specific trend to be potentially important or very important. Figure III displays this graphically.

The major conclusion to be drawn is that there is overwhelming consensus on the importance of the cluster of developments commonly associated with “globalisation”. Moreover, the few areas where a wider spread of opinions and predictions is found do not really change this conclusion of consensus. Some simply represent the “flip-side” of a question which, rephrased in different ways elsewhere, met with general agreement. (For example, only 37 per cent believe economic growth will lose its dominance, and only 21 per cent that enterprises will play a major role in training the unemployed. Both these are fully consistent with the general view that market-driven changes in company organisation will be major and far-reaching).

One area where a relative lack of consensus appears is in relation to the impact of demography and the different experiences of different age groups. Only a few questions probed the effects of an ageing workforce: this might usefully be taken further. Similarly, issues relating to young people’s transitions were touched on sparingly. Given their importance for social cohesion and economic growth, it is interesting that this area, again, revealed less overwhelming consensus than do many others.

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Figure III: Levels of consensus among UK respondents

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Context A

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12Number of items which >80%believe likely/almost certain

Number of items which between60 and 80% believelikely/almost certainNumber of items which between40 and 60% believelikely/almost certainNumber of items which <40%believe likely/almost certain

Context B

0

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Context C

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In the field of the economy and technology, as Appendix 1 shows, over 80 per cent of respondents believed a number of developments to be likely or almost certain by 2010. They consider that: International competition will become knowledge intensive; companies will have to restructure continuously; ICT developments will link people in new ways; outsourcing and lean production will intensify; the effects of globalisation will become more apparent; people are less likely to follow a single, stable career path.

Similar percentages predict the following for employment and the labour market. Employers will expect more employees to adopt flexible working practices. Tackling disaffection among some social groups will have to become an important priority. The labour market will continue to be subject to rapid change. Broad competencies and skills will be more in demand. People will develop new combinations of education and training over their career.

In the field of VET, over 80 per cent predicted as follows. VET will become more outcome based. Individuals will take more responsibility for their education and training. VET will become more integrated with other policies and strategies. ICT will become a normal part of formal education and training. VET providers will offer more individualised and modularised courses and qualifications. Key, transferable skills will gain in importance.

StrategiesRespondents were also asked, for each trend, whether action of various kinds should be taken; and, if so, by whom. Very few ever marked an action as unnecessary, although this may be in part a function of the questionnaire design, which invited a positive response by asking “Who is responsible for this area of activity?” The questionnaire provided an array of possible positive responses and only one, not very prominent “null” choice. We have therefore looked at the pattern of choices rather than comparing all responses suggesting activity with the tiny numbers ticking “No activity required.”

Multiple choices were possible; and given the overlap in questionnaire topics, we have summarised across questionnaires to give a general picture of where respondents feel responsibility for VET most lies. The overall totals follow. The data also shows how limited the differences were between respondents from different groups – particularly when respondents are divided into the categories of public sector, industry-linked and observers (see Figure IV).

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Figure IV: Perceived responsibly of different actions (UK respondents)

Possible Locus of Responsibility % of total choices received by this group(N = 11608)

EU Agencies 11.8National State 19.9Local/Regional Governments 13.9Employer Associations 12.2Unions 9.7Sectors 8.0Individual Enterprises 8.3Education/Training Providers 13.1Individuals 3.1

More than 1 choice could be made for each possible course of action. On average, respondents made 3.3 choices per action.

Factor analysisWe carried out further analyses of the data, and in particular a factor analysis, to see where responses to questions seemed to be closely associated with each other, and so might be taken as manifestations of some general, underlying dimension. The basic assumption of factor analysis is that such underlying dimensions or factors can be used to explain complex phenomena; and that observed correlations between variables result from the fact that they share, or are a manifestation of, or derive from such factors. (For example, if scores on different tests which are in theory measuring very different content and traits turn out to be highly intercorrelated, this suggests that they are actually measuring a single dimension e.g. literacy, or even general intelligence, instead.)

In this case, we were looking for two things. The first was clusters of variables which could be related, in a meaningful way, to some underlying view of how things were developing in the VET world. This could be, for example, the impact of globalisation or of changes in company size and structure, or of a move from demand for specific to demand for generic skills. Secondly, we wanted to pinpoint those variables where, in contrast, people’s responses clearly could not be related to (‘explained by’) common factors. Such variables would be of particular relevance in planning the next stage of the Scenarios research.

The factor analysis yielded some interesting results, but before discussing these, an important caveat is in order. We noted above that our respondents generally displayed very high levels of consensus in their answers. For almost every trend we presented them with, most agreed that it was likely to occur and most agreed that it was potentially important.

This meant that we had a restricted range of responses: most answers fell in one or two categories. For purely arithmetical reasons, a restricted response range means that you get low correlations between variables. As a result, the factor model was generally less

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appropriate than we might have hoped. If the correlations between variables are small, it is unlikely that they share common factors. In this case, the restricted range of answers may nonetheless conceal major differences in people’s views, and in the strength of underlying relationships (and so the existence of common factors), but we obviously cannot know where this is occurring. The factor analysis results must therefore be treated with caution.

Context A: Economy and technology2

The low levels of correlation among variables mean that we cannot identify underlying factors with any great confidence. Nonetheless, in this analysis five fairly distinct factors do emerge, each giving a high loading to a distinctive group of items.3

For the ‘likelihood’ responses, the first factor has heavy loadings for items A4, A5, A6, A12, A13, A14 and A23. We find it hard to interpret this factor, but note that the factor is also, itself, highly correlated with two of the other factors. The second factor can be seen as an ‘industrial restructuring’ cluster. There are heavy loadings for items A1, A3, A8, A10 and A11, and it seems that respondents tend to view a number of trends relating to innovation and company structure as inter-related- even though they vary in how fast they think these will spread.

Factor 3 (with heavy loadings for items A10, A17, A18, A20 and A22) relates to the impact of change on cultures, public/private partnerships and the like. What we are picking up here is that some people feel globalisation will have major and rapid impact in these areas, while others do not. Factor 4 weights items A1, A2, A3, and A21: it relates to the impact of globalisation on career paths, and the speed of change to a ‘knowledge society’, and again there is some disagreement among our respondents on this. Finally, factor 5 weights items A9, A15, A19 and A20 but explain very little more of the variance.

The factor analysis for the ‘importance’ responses is extremely difficult to interpret. There is some real variation among our respondents in how important they believe globalisation to be, reflected in the importance they attach to changes in career paths, and, equally, company restructuring. However, it is important to emphasise that these are differences of degree, not kind. As the earlier discussion indicated, generally there is overwhelming consensus on the nature of globalisation’s impact, and its major importance.

Finally, the following variables are interesting because they do not appear to be part of the general ‘globalisation’ cluster, and instead evoke quite distinct responses and greater levels of disagreement among respondents.

A4 ‘Economic growth will lose its dominance’A7 ‘Regional structures will strengthen links between the economy and VET providers’A16 ‘Technological innovation will lead to an increase in inequality between different social groups’.

2 The reader should refer to Appendix 1 to identify the trend statements that numbering used here refers to.3 In the case of the likelihood responses, the varimax output (after 18 iterations) is used: for the importance ones, varimax again (17 iterations).

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Context B: Employment and the labour market The responses to this questionnaire show a very similar pattern to that described above. Intercorrelations are generally low, and the factors (before and after rotation) are difficult to interpret, reflecting the general consensus with respect to the topics covered: namely, flexibility, restructuring, constant change, ‘knowledge management’.

However, two clusters of items stand out, and are evident in the factor analysis as well.

The first relates to labour mobility and labour force multiculturalism. Those who think that increased labour mobility among jobs is extremely likely also tend to expect more migration and a much more multicultural workforce, and vice versa. There is clearly an underlying view of European economic and political development here which it would be interesting to probe further. The other cluster (and corresponding factor) where respondents’ answers seem to tap quite different theories about social change relates to issues of exclusion. Respondents tend either to think that unemployment among the young will worsen relative to other groups, that labour mobility will increase rapidly, that transitions from education to employment will lengthen and that there will be increased polarisation in the workforce – or that none of these is hugely likely.

Context C: Training, skills and knowledgeThe general level of agreement among our respondents again affects the extent to which factor analysis provides any robust outputs. Only eight correlations in the whole correlation matrix (for 23 x 23 items) reach 0.4 or above for the ‘likelihood’ replies, and only 13 for the ‘importance’ responses. To a statistician, this makes it unsurprising that the factors extracted are difficult to interpret. However, one factor does stand out, and we might label this the ‘optimism’ factor. As the frequency data show (Appendix A), our respondents are not on the whole, very optimistic about the future role of enterprises as agents of social integration. Responses to statement C23 provide typical evidence of this. However, there are a few such optimists: and their view of the future sees this role as linked to a growing importance for regional structures (C7), success in involving SMEs in the VET system (C13), and greater integration of the VET system overall (C14).

The rationale for the minority, upbeat view would be worth probing further in stage 2 of the project.

The qualitative dataThe comments that respondents wrote have enabled us to assemble and analyse a good deal of qualitative data. We have collated more than 1000 comments. (Appendix II will be available at the seminar). Often the comments give the intellectual or emotional response of respondents to the perceived trends that they are analysing, and provide valuable additional material.

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Frequently, the comments provide strong evidence of the views of what we have just called optimists and pessimists. In response, for example, to the statement (which almost all considered likely or almost inevitable by 2010) that ICT will link people in new ways (A5), optimists stated that:

‘ICT is the key driving force,’ and‘This will accelerate, provided the learning opportunities are there for people to keep up’.

Pessimists, on the other hand, stated:

‘This is almost inevitable, but I regret the demise of personal communication, face to face, in business and in social life.’ And, more simply,‘Scary, isn’t it?’

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Section 4 The European report

It is helpful that the draft of the European report is now available. It confirms the results and analysis that this report has provided, and it provides and analyses a good deal more detail across the participants’ systems.

As we indicated in Section 1, the European report also proposes a number of preliminary scenarios. We report these below in a slightly amended version. Each scenario takes two uncertainties and explores each possible combination of the two.

Economy and TechnologyThese scenarios explore the extent to which companies will restructure to remain competitive, along with the extent to which partnerships are formed with VET providers.

Figure V: Economy and Technology – draft scenario

Few or no partnerships with VET providers

Many partnerships with VET providers

Weak restructuring for competitiveness

1 StagnationThe economy limps on, but develops no strong linkages with training

2 Good will, but no resultsNo strong economic restructuring is prevalent, although there are numerous linkages with VET providers

Strong restructuring for competitiveness

3 Short-term developmentEconomical restructuring follows its own path, but not in partnership with VET providers

4 Rich developmentThe economy is restructured while many contacts with training providers develop

Employment and the labour marketHere, the extent of labour mobility is set against the extent of modernisation occurring in the workplace

Figure VI: Employment and Labour Market – draft scenario

Limited modernisation of the workplace

Extensive modernisation of the workplace

Low degree of labour mobility

1 ImmobilityOrganisations are unwilling to innovate and, likewise, employees stick to traditional patterns and practices

2 Organisational change Organisations change their internal structures and processes, but the labour force does not adapt to new practices

High degree of labour mobility

3 Flexible workers, inflexible work Employees are willing to adapt and develop new skills, but companies are unwilling to innovate

4 SynergySynergy between organisational modernisation and individual development.

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Training, skills and knowledgeHere there are two versions. The first explores the extent to which VET providers are responsive to changing needs; and, the demand for key and transferable skills alongside specific skills needed in the company/ on the job.

Figure VII: VET – first draft scenario

Weak demand for social and transferable skills in conjunction with job-specific skills

Strong demand for social and transferable skills in conjunction job-specific skills

VET providers are not responsive

1 Traditional, inward looking systemThere is no specific need for generic skills and training providers stick to their traditional offer

2 Clash between demand and training providersThere is demand for social and generic skills, but VET providers do not respond

VET providers are responsive

3 Unmet innovationVET providers are willing to innovate, but there is no demand for social or transferable skills

4 Demand for social skills met by responsiveness VET providers, perhaps decentralised, provide general and transferable skills and meet industry’s skills needs

Second versionWhile this scenario construction is certainly attempting to grapple with interesting variables, it does not seem to us to be worked out convincingly. Why, for example should scenario 2 refer to a state-led system. Could it not be one in which specific groups of employees and employers protect their own interests or status? Such a system may be social partnership led.

Figure VIII: VET – second draft scenario

Training is little used to protect the interests of certain social groups

Training used to a large degree for the protection of certain social groups

Training is not seen as an individual responsibility

1 FragmentationNeither the individual nor major interest groups take responsibility for training

2 State based arrangementsTraditional state-based, social-democratic arrangements prevail

Training is seen mainly as an individual responsibility

3 Neo-liberalismIndividuals must take responsibility for their own training, since no other stakeholder takes a lead

4 A collaborative modelThe individual has a personal training portfolio, but with flexible and well signposted training provision readily available

ConclusionIt is helpful to have some prospective scenarios to look at, at this stage. This helps to ask the question: which issues are most appropriate for building scenarios for the UK? This was the main focus at our seminar.

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5 The UK seminar

IntroductionThe seminar was held, as planned, on 16 September 1999 at the offices of the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority (QCA) in London. Mike Coles chaired the seminar, and both Alison Wolf and Tom Leney made presentations. Burkart Sellin attended on behalf of CEDEFOP; this was helpful, giving the seminar a broader perspective.

The seminar secured the active and enthusiastic participation of a wide range of key policy players. By and large, participants held senior positions in their respective organisations. Our only proviso here is that responses to the forty or so invitations that we had sent out came almost entirely from the public sector, and the private sector was little represented at the seminar.

Discussion at the seminar was lively, and feedback indicates that the participants consider that their participation was worthwhile, and that scenarios building, which has not received much attention in the UK, could develop into a useful tool for policy development in the field of VET and, perhaps, more broadly in the development of education policy. If so, the VET Scenarios Project has a constructive role to play.

We had invited all participants for the morning session, indicating that the afternoon session would consider more methodological issues, and the question of how to take the project forward into phase two.

Programme9.00 Welcome and introductions

Keith Weller (QCA). QCA’s interest in the work.Tom Leney (Institute of Education) The project, where it leads, ways of looking at developments.

Burkart Sellin (CEDEFOP) The European context for the research.

9.30 The data and what it might meanAlison Wolf (Institute of Education) The UK data, and how it compares to that from other countries Tom Leney The UK data: the thoughts of respondents

10.15 Scenarios for 2010: discussion of the trends and initial scenarios

arising from the data.

12.0 The next steps Introduced by Mike Coles (QCA)12.30 Lunch1.30 Research issues

The afternoon was designated for a discussion of research issues that have arisen during the work so far, and for following up issues raised in morning session. All participants were invited to stay, but particularly those with an interest in research methodology and plans for phase 2 of the project are welcome to participate.

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The participants were as follows:

Harvey Coleman* ( DfEE), Burkart Sellin (CEDEFOP), Tom Leney (Institute of Education), David Guile*(Institute of Education), Alison Wolf (Institute of Education), Dugald Sandeman* (QCA), Mike Coles (QCA), Rob Taylor* (QCA), Keith Weller* (QCA),Anne Harper (QCA), Donal Kerr (FAS Ireland), Gwen Evans* (Association of Teachers and Lecturers), Richard Masters (Local Government Management Board), Norman Gealy* (Moloney and Gealy Consultancy), Martin Ridge (Department of Trade and Industry), Richard Chambers (Lewisham College), Graham Jimson* (Lewisham Local Education Authority). An * indicates those who attended for the morning session only.

A summary of the day’s work: The main presentations, outcomes and conclusions

PresentationsKeith Weller, opening the seminar on behalf of QCA, indicated the importance that the agency attaches to the project. He said that to fulfil its remit, QCA needs to be forward looking. It needs to research both the content of education and training and the structure of qualifications, and link these with developments in the systems within which education, training and qualifications will function. The scenarios research is important for the UK in several distinct ways. Firstly, it may provide a systematic way of looking at the future that can take uncertainties into account. It provides us with a new way of gathering information to inform policy. Secondly, it is interesting how different countries use different methods to gather evidence and advice in order to develop policy. In the UK focus groups and paper consultations are the norm, so the scenarios technique may open up some new possibilities in policy formation. Thirdly, globalisation of trade has its influence on the balance of skills needed in the workforce. Scenarios research allows us to work in the UK context whilst keeping an eye Europe-wide. Lastly - but most important - this research provides an opportunity for those with an interest in optimising the effectiveness of VET (meeting needs, providing access, improving skills levels) to get together to give a steer to a project which has the potential to be useful for all partners in the VET system.

Tom Leney then introduced in more detail the idea of scenario building as a method that might have the potential to look flexibly at future trends and needs in a particular field, and to link these in with strategic approaches. This might help to concentrate on medium and long term developments and strategies, helping to look beyond the limitations of ‘short-termism’ in policy formation for, in this case, VET The emphasis of the seminar would be on working together to help build a useful tool and to make a first attempt to suggest scenarios for VET in the UK. This was not a seminar where experts would be telling others how to do things; rather, it was a collaborative attempt to explore the possibilities of something relatively new to us all. After explaining how the research partnership was operating across a considerable number of countries in the EU and across central and eastern Europe, he introduced some of the basic features of scenario building, using the process adopted – with its pitfalls – by Royal Dutch Shell in the Netherlands as an example. The aim of scenarios building as Shell uses the technique is to help the company to adapt and play a leading role in a changing and unpredictable world, and since the 1970s multiple scenario building had been used by the company to help develop strategic thinking. The company’s strategists look for ‘trends’, ‘trend breakers’ and ‘potential surprises’ in the various

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contexts, including scientific, technological, commercial and social, in which it operates. The attempt is then made to build these into a logical concept – which means a coherent set of alternative, outline scenarios. Then detail is added and refinements made, and maybe one or two of the potential scenarios are rejected as too simplistic or implausible. The scenarios incorporate strategies, so they take account of what is expected and what is/is not hoped for. In scenario building it is the important, but unpredictable trends that count most. These are the ones that the seminar should try to help define. Then, a comparison was made between three methods of policy formation – the UK preference for a public consultation exercise, the methodology developed in France for the ‘observatory’ and, of course, scenarios building – emerging largely in Europe through work being done in the Netherlands. If the last of these has advantages it will help us to link trends (particularly uncertain developments) with strategies, and it will not be single track. The method lends itself to long-term thinking not ‘short termism’. On the other hand, the dangers are that the method can, at worst, become mechanistic and superficial.

Burkart Sellin described the role of CEDEFOP and explained how the management of the Scenarios Project had been set up at a European level, with CEDEFOP and ETF co-sponsoring and the whole project being led and co-ordinated by the Max Goote Centre in Amsterdam. The countries involved make for an interesting combination, and this gives the project an innovative edge and potential. He indicated that CEDEFOP attaches importance to the project, and that it is pleasing to see that such a large partnership is producing significant work already. He examined briefly the relationship between trends and strategies, expressing the view that perhaps the linkage needed more thorough exploration in the development of the scenarios methodology. Probably the questionnaire had understated the strategies aspect, and this would need re-examination in phase 2. He also asked whether the contexts had been described comprehensively enough in the three questionnaires, and asked whether the contexts needed to be reconceptualised in some ways. He placed emphasis on issues relating to employment, competitiveness and developments in ICT.

Alison Wolf introduced in some detail the method used for the quantitative aspects of the questionnaire, and elaborated the conclusions contained in section three of this report. Participants had received the UK report in advance of the seminar. She also indicated how compatible the conclusions that we had drawn are with the conclusions from other countries contained in the preliminary international report, which had also been circulated in advance.

Alison drew attention to the trends that respondents felt to be most likely in each of the contexts. Again, see section three. Alison emphasised the limitations of the data resulting from the limited range of values recorded, and the generally very low intercorrelations between variables that were a direct result of this. This, in turn, made it hard to identify distinct factors or interpret any of the different factor analyses that she had used - an issue which, since the seminar, has also been raised by the Austrian team in particular. In order to ensure that there were no obvious statistical tools which she had omitted to use, and which might have provided clearer outcomes, she had double-checked her interpretations with a statistician colleague, whose conclusions were the same as her own. Without going too deeply into the mathematics of why this is so, and with the aid of OHP slides, she showed why it was only possible to draw

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limited conclusions when there was such a high degree of consensus being shown by respondents of all categories on most issues. Similarly, Alison explained that the phrasing of the statements on strategies and agencies had led to multiple agencies being attached to most strategies, and that the three contexts were not as clearly distinguished (through the statements) as they could have been.

As section three shows, Alison Wolf indicated, nevertheless, that some interesting trends and correlations occurred. Here, she emphasised that:

There was wide agreement on the importance of the cluster of factors associated with globalisation, but less agreement about how they would impact.

There were interesting divergences of view on matters relating to the impact of economic growth, regionalisation and the link between technological innovation and inequality.

There were differing views too relating to mobility and, particularly perhaps, in factors of optimism/pessimism.

Scenarios building would need to address the question of what drives a need for new qualifications in VET, how to conduct needs analysis, and how best to build qualifications for the future.

Turning again to European comparisons, Alison asked whether we could conclude that a cross-Europe convergence was developing or not. The phrasing of some of the statements could make this appear to be the case – if so, this might be a weakness of the tools used, rather than evidence of developments across Europe. Alison suggested that phase two should consider bilateral as well as multi-lateral comparisons, and that these were issues that could be taken up in a wider conference.

The presentations summarised above, and the discussion points raised, had taken up enough time, and we did not want to shorten the time for open discussion, so Tom Leney introduced the qualitative data only briefly. Introducing appendix 2, he indicated that respondents’ comments often gave more sharply differentiated views than the quantitative data, and that the range of responses to statements therefore gave an interesting idea of what respondents thought, felt and believed. This reflected Alison’s interesting observations about optimists and pessimists.

Outcomes of the morning and afternoon discussionsThe general discussion followed and here we outline the main points that were raised and developed.

It should be possible to develop some scenarios and strategies based on the questionnaire evidence and the seminar discussions. It was a more open question whether we could seek to validate any conclusions from either source with documentary evidence.

The seminar had contributed to taking participants’ thinking forward. It would be good to have a wider seminar next year.

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Several important observations were made about the methodology.

The value of scenarios methodology lies in the fact that it fills the intermediate ground between pure researchers and policy makers, using evidence.

We need a clear statement of purpose and objectives for the whole exercise.

There were some serious flaws in the current methodology:1. The design of the questionnaire leads to ambiguity in questions (language) and

in meaning (importance ratings following the statements). A fuller glossary might help.

2. The relationship between fields A, B and C needs clarification3. Context A may get too much emphasis in relation to B4. The ‘who’s responsible’ section does not discriminate in terms of importance.

For example, the behaviour of government is fundamental both to trends and in terms of strategies. But ‘Government is not a logical operation – it leaps in ten year jumps, then stands still’. All players often have a role in the development of VET, but the questionnaire has not let us make the important distinctions. This is a key , uncertain variable, which we need to flesh out.

5. Does the questionnaire style capture the personal views of expert respondents, or are we getting received wisdom?

6. There are some areas where overlap between A, B and C is significant and this may generate a strand for a scenario (e.g. A8/9, B1 and C21)

7. It would be important to link quantitative to qualitative data, and a survey of this type needs to be followed by another method of gathering data, such as in-depth interviewing on a semi-structured basis.

We need, as an objective, to develop a method for constructing scenarios that experts (researchers, policy makers) can use in their own circumstances. The current method, which relies on the construction of a complex postal questionnaire with a limited output has serious limitations. It was clear that colleagues who attended the seminar from a variety of agencies had some quite specific, practical hopes and expectations for scenario thinking, which this first stage of the research could not fulfil.

We need to ensure that scenarios inform policy and not imply that policy informs scenarios (funding example).

Several gaps in the aspects covered by the statements were identified

Sectoral factors need more careful attention

We are asking questions about direction of change but not about the expected/hoped for rate of change.

In context C, there is too little focus on qualifications. This is a serious omission. In order to work on this defect, sectoral work needs to precede qualifications work.

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Employability needs attention; this may in fact be a strand in a scenario.

Who pays for VET is not addressed adequately.

World trends/comparisons are missing.

Gender issues are ignored.

A caveat – the chicken and the egg. Scenarios thinking is meant to help form policy, not to reflect current fashions and orthodoxy in policy making.

Difficult to predict trends and relationships suggested by the group, in relation to VET scenario buildingBy the end of the afternoon session, a number of key uncertainties had been offered as important axes for scenario building. Looking at the UK evidence and the tentative scenarios in the European report helped to identify these. The suggested variables are as follows.

1. The systems relationship between VET providers and the labour market.One scenario here is that jobs are changing but VET provision and qualifications lag behind. This can be expanded into the four logical variants. Refinement of this matrix need to take into account: the role of the employer in shaping/providing training, links with specialist or school-based VET provision, employability and the role of qualifications and their development.

This would result in a combination of two of the draft scenarios mapped out in the preliminary European report, which are reproduced in section four of this report; thus linking contexts 2 and 3.

Limited modernisation of the workplace and the labour market

Extensive modernisation of the workplace and the labour market

VET providers are changing slowlyVET providers are changing quickly

2. The role of VET in mediating/limiting social exclusionHere, the axis relates to the perceived role of VET and to its effectiveness. Handled well, this variable could link up to the careers of young people who drop out and measures for combating exclusion.

A way of formulating the resulting scenarios is shown on the next page.

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Tackling social exclusion is not seen as a major economic and social priority

Tackling social exclusion is seen as a major economic and social priority

VET providers do little to widen participation and combat social exclusionVET providers play a significant role in widening participation and combating social exclusion

3. The high/low take up of training (whether initial or continuing) linked to the issues of who pays/provides and how this fits into lifestyles

A recent survey conducted by one of the participants showed that four out of five people thought continuing training to be important, but only one in five was taking up continuing training. In turn, this related to intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, and to expectations about payment for training and longer-term career prospects.

Built up as a matrix, this would look something like the second draft scenario suggested in the preliminary international report. (See figure VII in section 4 of this report).

Continuing training is not seen as a ‘normal’ part of the workplace or job

Continuing training is seen a ‘normal’ part of the workplace or job

Training is not seen as primarily the responsibility of the individualTraining is seen as primarily the responsibility of the individual

4. Axes that reflect the ambiguities: particularly the optimist/pessimist factorThis brings in important links between the question of youth transitions, labour market changes and education and training provision. As a part of any of the scenarios that we construct, it adds the important dimension of what scenario builders hope for and what they fear may happen.

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5. Exploring the broader link between modes of education and training provision, the organisation of work and their impact on economic development.

This links the three contexts with which the Scenarios Project is concerned, suggesting a more complex set of scenarios, based on three axes. It serves also to bring an ambiguity to light: do we seek, eventually, to unify the contexts into one set of coherent scenarios, or to build up scenarios that keep the contexts separate?

6. The links between sectoral (perhaps also regional) variations and the training of individuals.

Conclusions from the seminarWe were aware that our discussions had concentrated on the ‘trends’ aspects of scenarios building, and that we had not yet begun to build in the strategies aspects in any meaningful way. The question was asked whether this was because the research project is at an early stage; whether as a team we had become diverted into considering the trends aspect too strongly; or, whether this was a reflection of the emphasis of the work of the whole project at this stage. We thought that the views of other participating research partners could throw light on this question.

The seminar did help to make tentative progress in identifying provisional axes for scenario building for the UK. Key axes (as indicated above) that merit further development are outlined in one to six above. Paragraphs 1, 2, 3 and 5 immediately above are recommended for further consideration. Any development into alternative scenarios based on these polarities will need to take strategies and (what is hoped for/feared) into consideration, and will need to make strong reference to both qualifications and VET structures into account. Also (see paragraph 6 above) any provisional scenarios will need to be fleshed out and be given the feel of being in touch with perceived likely realities: to use a sectoral approach for further development is likely to be fruitful.

These conclusions needed qualitative judgements and decisions to be made from the data and from the developments in the seminar. Experts had had to form a view. There was no statistical determination of the relationships involving key uncertainties. In fact, having started from a quantitative, statistical approach, the UK seminar reached a strong conclusion that the next stage of research should rely on reaching conclusions from in depth discussions or interviews, rather than attempt to mount another statistical exercise through a postal questionnaire.

It was suggested that to achieve the aims of the project in the next phase, we should not concentrate too much on an overall pan-European set of scenarios. Indeed, scenarios could vary according to country and, within countries, according to sector or region. The best way to proceed would be to develop scenarios in more localised environments and to put detail on the outlines by working with the range of experts in the particular circumstances.

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6 Recommendations

We have worked hard to bring the UK part of the scenarios project to this point. We have enjoyed working as a team, and have learnt a good deal from the experience. We now have the enthusiastic involvement of a number of colleagues who are experts in the fields of policy and training provision, mainly in the public sector. At the same time, the data collection and analysis was a laborious process whose outcome was, in some ways, disappointing. It did not produce data that took us as far on as we had hoped.

Our main recommendations are:

1. We certainly wish to remain involved as a team, but we consider that the second phase of the project should encourage participating countries to experiment in a less constrained way so as to develop scenarios that have the potential to be helpful to researchers and policy makers in national and more localised or sectoral settings. Scenarios need to be used in particular and real circumstances: they need to be useful.

2. We suggest that in-depth interviews with selected experts in particular contexts, sectors or regions, will produce a richer yield, and is to be preferred to a quantitative methodology in the next phase of the project.

3. If scenarios are to define and develop as an approach that policy makers and researchers can operate to develop strategies to cope with longer term developments, then the project will need to develop and describe a tool that policy makers and researchers can operate without too much difficulty. The postal questionnaire research conducted across a number of countries has set the ball rolling. But the present method of working would be too unwieldy for companies, researchers and agencies to use it as a tool in their own local circumstances.

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APPENDIX I Summary of UK Responses

Context A: Economy and technology

Trends

A1 Increasingly, international competition will become knowledge intensive. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 90% who believe this trend to be important or very important 90

A2 Companies will have to restructure continuously. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 89% who believe this trend to be important or very important 85

A3 More emphasis will be placed on entrepreneurial skills. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 72% who believe this trend to be important or very important 78

A4 Economic growth will lose its dominance. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 37% who believe this trend to be important or very important 71

A5 Developments in information and communication technologies (ICT) will link people in new ways. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 97% who believe this trend to be important or very important 97

A6 Organisations representing an overall industrial or commercial sector (sectoral organisations) will have an important role in enhancing innovation. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 56% who believe this trend to be important or very important 73

A7 Regional structures will develop and strengthen the links between the local/regional economy and the providers of vocational education and training.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 66% who believe this trend to be important or very important 70

A8 The trend towards outsourcing and ‘lean’ production will intensify.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 83% who believe this trend to be important or very important 80

A9 Increasingly, companies will bring in skills from other enterprises.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 73% who believe this trend to be important or very important 76

A10 Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will be in the best position to innovate in technology. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 49% who believe this trend to be important or very important 69

A11 Large and small companies will become more interdependent.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 72% who believe this trend to be important or very important 73

A12 A wider Europe and the Single European Market will restructure the European economy.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 59

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% who believe this trend to be important or very important 73

A13 Society will become more critical of some aspects of technology. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 76% who believe this trend to be important or very important 70

A14 Increasingly, job-related training will become the responsibility of the business community. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 58% who believe this trend to be important or very important 87

A15 The boundaries between manufacturing and service industries will become more and more blurred. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 70% who believe this trend to be important or very important 72

A16 Technological innovations will lead to an increase in inequality between different social groups. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 72% who believe this trend to be important or very important 89

A17 The effects of globalisation will become more apparent. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 89% who believe this trend to be important or very important 81

A18 Economic restructuring will have a major impact on national cultures and social institutions. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 76% who believe this trend to be important or very important 80

A19 Innovation-seeking companies will work more closely together in the area of in-company training. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 51% who believe this trend to be important or very important 73

A20 Private/public partnerships will play an increasingly important role in coping with common problems. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 75% who believe this trend to be important or very important 66

A21 People are less and less likely to follow a single, secure and stable career path throughout their working life. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 96% who believe this trend to be important or very important 92

A22 The skills needs of the labour market, and the requirement for particular qualifications, will become more difficult to forecast. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 70% who believe this trend to be important or very important 83

A23 As a consequence of collective bargaining/negotiating, companies will have an increasingly direct involvement in training.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 47% who believe this trend to be important or very important 77

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Context B: Employment and the labour market

Trends

B1 Employers will require more and more people to adopt flexible working practices.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 90% who believe this trend to be important or very important 95

B2 Companies will have to restructure continuously. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 96% who believe this trend to be important or very important 90

B3 The workplace will become more multicultural.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 72% who believe this trend to be important or very important 70

B4 The ageing of employees will inhibit change and innovation. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 7% who believe this trend to be important or very important 55

B5 The concept of the 'Learning Organisation' will be widely accepted and applied.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 63% who believe this trend to be important or very important 79

B6 Hierarchies will become much less pronounced.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 58% who believe this trend to be important or very important 58

B7 An ageing population will enhance lifelong learning.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 68% who believe this trend to be important or very important 83

B8 Unemployment among young people under 25 will increase, compared to other age groups.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 24% who believe this trend to be important or very important 74

B9 Training will be limited to permanent staff only.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 47% who believe this trend to be important or very important 80

B10 Tackling disaffection among some social groups will become an important priority.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 86% who believe this trend to be important or very important 93

B11 The government will continue to play an important role in vocational education and training. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 75% who believe this trend to be important or very important 91

B12 Flexibility of labour will fit more and more comfortably with people’s life style.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 55% who believe this trend to be important or very important 82

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B13 The migration of labour will increase.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 56% who believe this trend to be important or very important 51

B14 Collective labour agreements will have less significance.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 61% who believe this trend to be important or very important 54

B15 The labour market will continue to be subject to rapid change, so broad competencies will be more and more in demand.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 91% who believe this trend to be important or very important 97

B16 The mobility of labour will increase. 85% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 78% who believe this trend to be important or very important

B17 ‘Knowledge management’ will become generally accepted.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 76% who believe this trend to be important or very important 91

B18 The social exclusion of certain ‘at risk’ and disadvantaged groups will continue, and even intensify. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 64% who believe this trend to be important or very important 86

B19 Young people will tend to need a longer period for making the transition from school to work. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 65% who believe this trend to be important or very important 88

B20 There will be a “brain-drain” to Western Europe. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 45% who believe this trend to be important or very important 60

B21 Social and communicative skills will be more highly valued in employment processes. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 88% who believe this trend to be important or very important 90

B22 Increasingly, the workforce will polarise into those with high levels of qualification and those with low levels of qualification. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 60% who believe this trend to be important or very important 74

B23 People will develop new combinations of education and training over the course of their career.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 85% who believe this trend to be important or very important 90

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Context C: Training, skills and knowledge

Trends

C1 Developments in information and communication technology will mean that formal training will become less important. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 49% who believe this trend to be important or very important 79

C2 Vocational education and training will become more outcome-based. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 83% who believe this trend to be important or very important 93

C3 Individuals will take more responsibility for their own education and training. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 82% who believe this trend to be important or very important 93

C4 Vocational education and training will become more integrated with other policies and strategies. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 87% who believe this trend to be important or very important 93

C5 Expenditure on vocational education and training will increase. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 75% who believe this trend to be important or very important 90

C6 Specialist and technical skills will gain in importance. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 43% who believe this trend to be important or very important 60

C7 Regionalisation will have a major impact on vocational education and training.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 60% who believe this trend to be important or very important 62

C8 Decentralisation will have a major impact on VET provision. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 62% who believe this trend to be important or very important 82

C9 Training organised by the various sectors of industry and commerce will become more important. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 66% who believe this trend to be important or very important 68

C10 Older employees will be encouraged and motivated to participate in vocational education more often. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 71% who believe this trend to be important or very important 96

C11 Formal education and training will remain important, in particular, for groups at risk of social exclusion. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 57% who believe this trend to be important or very important 87

C12 Information and communication technologies (ICT) will become a normal part of formal education and training. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 99% who believe this trend to be important or very important 96

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C13 SMEs will benefit from an increase in the transfer of knowledge, through the agency of vocational education and training providers. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 48% who believe this trend to be important or very important 81

C14 Stronger links will be formed between vocational training providers and other educational institutions.% who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 60% who believe this trend to be important or very important 93

C15 Providers of VET will offer more individualised and differentiated courses and qualifications, often on a modular basis % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 87% who believe this trend to be important or very important 91

C16 Social and communication skills will gain in importance. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 83% who believe this trend to be important or very important 92

C17 General and transferable skills will gain in importance. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 85% who believe this trend to be important or very important 89

C18 Knowledge management will be subject to rapid change and renewal. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 47% who believe this trend to be important or very important 66

C19 Knowledge and skills gained outside formal training (informal learning) will be better recognised. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 69% who believe this trend to be important or very important 85

C20 Tackling social exclusion will receive higher priority. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 76% who believe this trend to be important or very important 93

C21 Vocational education and training programmes will become more varied and flexible. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 79% who believe this trend to be important or very important 92

C22 In-company training will become more important. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 75% who believe this trend to be important or very important 81

C23 Enterprises will provide training for more unemployed people, and have a role in their re-integration into the workforce. % who consider this likely or almost certain by 2010 21% who believe this trend to be important or very important 67

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Appendix 2 Comments made by respondents to the questionnaires

In addition to scoring a range of trends for their likelihood and importance, the questionnaires provided space for a comment on particular trends, should respondents wish to record a view. We received more than 1000 comments. These often give a vivid picture of respondents’ attitudes to, and views of, the issues in question. Thus, the comments provide a useful, additional source of data.

We collated the views expressed for each statement. Then we selected statements that seem to typify the range of comments being made. To do this, we have chosen a maximum of five statements per trend. Thus, the qualitative statements reflect the range of views expressed, not the numbers of respondents making a particular comment.

Here we present the range of comments we received for the trends that we refer to in particular in the national report.

Context A: Economy and Technology

A1 Increasingly, international competition will become knowledge intensive

On the whole I believe that competitive companies will rely heavily on an increasing proportion of the workforce being knowledge intensive, but they will still have a large number of task oriented employees by 2010.

This is already happening in parts of the engineering sector, and we are already seeing this happen in large companies.

I have a problem with the word increasingly. Economic activity has become more knowledge intensive for the whole of the last

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200 years. Whether change is accelerating is problematic to measure.

This will vary according to the sector and the market strategy followed by the company and the country.

A2 Companies will have to restructure continuously

Post-modern society is already responding to constant change. We will have to get better at living with well-managed continuous change. Flexibility is the name of the game.

‘Continuously’ is over-dramatic. Systematic change is crucial, but any organisation must be sure of its reason for being and of delivering its core business.

Structures do not solve problems, although they can create them. Restructuring is often a displacement for creativity. I believe and that it is in equally, if not more, important that companies recognise that managers need to learn how to manage in a different way, rather than to continuously restructure.

A3 More emphasis will be placed on entrepreneurial skills

It is important to watch this. I believe more people will be entrepreneurs and self-employed than now, but there will always be people who are employees. But as companies employ fewer full-time employees, there will be a rapid growth in highly skilled and knowledgeable individuals working in an advisory and consultancy capacity.

This is already happening as industries become casualised. This is not to infer that it is therefore desirable, since it is mostly forced rather than by choice.

Self-employment in the UK grew in the 1980s. In the 1990s is has fallen, so what is the empirical basis for forecasting any growth?

A4 Economic growth will loose its dominance

If only! But I do not hold out much hope. Short-termism will drive in the other direction.

European populations are used to economic growth. They will only voluntarily trade part of potential growth for environmental and other such concerns. At present I am pessimistic.

Much depends on whether the global economy is responsive to wider issues. Striving for economic growth is usually attributed to governments not individuals. Individuals may place emphasis on awareness etc.

This will depend on the current state of standards of learning, and whether a shift to lifestyle issues takes place on not.

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This has probably been a trend over the past two decades. The quality of life, lifelong learning and citizenship will become buzz words.

A5 Developments in ICT will link people in new ways.

ICT is the key driving force. This is already happening and will accelerate, provided the

learning opportunities are there for people to keep up. This is almost inevitable, but I regret the demise of personal

communication, face to face, in business and in social life. Scary, isn't it?

A7 Regional structures will develop to strengthen the links between the local/regional economy and the providers of vocational education and

training

This is potentially in conflict with the increasingly global nature of business. Regionalism seems misguided.

Local structures and local labour markets will remain the most important. Few labour economists would recognise the concept of a regional labour market.

This will depend to a large extent on the political party in power. The current government is and favour of regionalisation of power and of the economy. Devolution will intensify in Britain. The regional base is growing, although pressures to centralise at national and supranational levels remain.

While I think that regional structures will develop, I am not sure that this will lead to stronger local links with providers of vocational education and training. For example, I already provide world-wide training through email and Internet.

A8 The trend towards outsourcing and ‘lean’ production will intensify

Several companies are already there in Scotland This seems to be a current trend, although coupled with organisations that experiment with new initiatives that then become core activities if successful.

The only way to survive. Empirical evidence on this is unclear. While this is true for large companies, I suspect that the

increase in SMEs will provide a counterbalance to outsourcing

A9 Increasingly, companies will bring in skills from other enterprises

In theory, yes. But big is not always beautiful. Important to watch for, and this is happening already to an

extent, as a progression from the partnership idea. But smaller companies in particular seem likely to maintain their focus on

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sectors specific skills, rather than recognising the value of transferable skills.

There may not be the same merger mania as in 1980s, now that there are counter trends of social responsibility for the large multinationals. Insourcing may continue to increase, but information and communication technologies and intelligent systems may replace outsource requirements.

We could see the development of ‘skills guilds’, selling their specialist skills to a range of employers.

A10 SMEs will be in the best position to innovate in technology

Smaller companies will still have the more flexible approach by the nature of their structures.

Unlikely, because cost is an issue to users and in the development of technology. Employment in SMEs has fallen in the UK during this recovery. Innovation is lower in small companies.

Small enterprises currently do not seem to be able to innovate. I do not see the situation changing greatly.

This is unlikely. There are always some innovators, but funding and resource is still channelled via higher education or larger public companies. There is a need for more support and funding for innovation and good practice - the economic climate and government regulations will also key influences.

A11 Large and small companies will become more interdependent

This would be beneficial, but I do not know if it will happen. Unlikely. Surely, successful small companies are likely to be

swallowed up or bought out. I feel that smaller companies will be sector specific and the

unique selling point will be individual customer service. They may be experimenters for a larger companies.

A12 A wider Europe and the Single Market will restructure the European economy

This is more likely to affect some areas of the economy than others. In hospitality in the UK the service is delivered in a particular locality to meet local customer needs, so will be subject to less change than a product based industry who can compete in different localities. May have an impact on larger multinational hospitality companies and may lead to different mix in the labour market.

Restructuring will take place, but I am not sure why the rapid increase in the available labour force should inhibit innovation. This appears to be a flawed premise.

Global forces are likely to minimise the impact of the available labour force on inhibiting innovation.

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Integration of countries with fundamentally distinct economic and political experiences since 1945 represents a huge challenge and consequences will be difficult to predict. Instability on its borders may affect the economic performance of Europe.

A13 Society will become more critical of some aspects of technology

I think that public pressure and awareness will also help, such as the UK's changing attitudes to GM food. We hope! Market rather than critique will drive development. ETP/CA

Society is both mistrustful of technology and awaiting the latest life-improving break through. It is difficult to determine in advance what ‘socially accepted’ is.

As users become more sophisticated and questioning this will undoubtedly happen. However, there will probably be an underclass who will not have adequate skills to access what will be highly elaborate technology; and this will create divisions.

A14 Increasingly, job-related training will become the responsibility of the business community

An alternative view is that the growth of freelance employment will make this an individual responsibility.

There remain strong reasons for businesses to minimise their own costs of training. This is done through poaching and under-training; and there is still a great resistance to investing in training, particularly in small firms. Training is still viewed as a cost to the business.

The cynic would say it may in the end become the responsibility of the individual employees in large sections of the economy. The ultimate challenge is to get owners and managers to realise that they cannot expect to pluck skilled people off the employment shelf as and when needed.

This will become an increasing part of the Government's agenda, to force responsibility and payment of things on to companies. Training levies will probably be introduced. But this is a role that the business community has been slow to adopt. Government does not seem to have put sufficient pressure on business.

Lifetime learning will be initiated in the workplace, whereas initial training and education may stay in the hands of the training providers.

A15 The boundaries between manufacturing and service industries will become more blurred

Possibly, but this will be slow to affect some businesses and will happen at different rates within the European Union.

This is already happening, certainly in a number of instances.

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As likely as not. Whilst the impact of technology will be very significant, there are still a vast number of very small service organisations that fall outside these partnerships.

A16 Technological innovations will lead to an increase in inequality between different social groups

This is one of the biggest economic issues facing Europe. This could be a problem as much for geographical areas as for social classes and gender and ethnic groups. But it is highly undesirable and needs to be minimised by social interventions.

I hope that initiatives such as the University for Industry will prevent this from happening.

This may have been happening in the 1970s and 80s. Present and future trends are unclear.

Increasingly, technology and social exclusion will go hand in hand. The rich/poor gap is widening in the UK as information technology applications eliminate relatively unskilled jobs.

A17 The effects of globalisation will become more apparent

Almost certain, very important. Unpredictability makes answers to most of the previous questions highly speculative.

I cannot answer this question, as globalisation is at best an ill-defined concept. At worst it is totally vacuous.

This is not new. Completing this questionnaire is becoming apocalyptic. Stop the

world, we want to get off!A18 Economic restructuring will have a major impact on national cultures and social institutions

The cultural and social infrastructure and the inflexibility of some of the current labour market practices are not sustainable. The institutional, social, religious and political framework may have to adapt. But change will be very difficult and present great upheaval and backlash.

This will be essential for economic well-being. This has already happened in many countries. But some countries may take a long time to adapt, and others may not be willing.

I hope that some of the strengths of a national identity are not lost.

Most likely be US cultural imperialism!

A19 Innovation-seeking companies will work more closely together in the area of in-company training

There is already evidence of greater willingness to co-operate on developing in-company training, although mainly by linking programmes to national occupational standards rather than directly to programmes for other companies.

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This is important, but competitiveness and commercial sensitivity will prevent this happening.

This has been tried many times before. The outcome is very hit and miss.

This is already happening, where mutually beneficial, in health and social care sector.

A20 Private/public partnerships will play an increasingly important role in coping with common problems

Yes, although not through a crude market to force being applied to the public sector. Change will be more subtle and complex than that.

Do not forget the role of the voluntary sector! Partnerships is another very vague concept. Almost certain, very important. Here there are threats as well as

opportunities.

A21 People are less and less likely to follow a single, secure and stable career path throughout their working life

People never did. Jobs for life was always a mythical concept by and large. HER

This is the common trend, but I am not convinced that the pendulum will continue to swing in this direction. In any case, the statistics do not show that this has occurred to the extent that many claim.

This is already happening and the trend seems set to intensify. This will have far reaching consequences on individuals, which

we are scarcely beginning to address - individuals are having to cope with considerable change in life patterns without role models or structures.

A23 As a consequence of collective bargaining/negotiating, companies will have an increasingly direct involvement in training

I am not sure that this will happen just as a consequence of collective bargaining. Why not simply because companies think they can provide a cheaper and more are geared to their own purposes themselves?

Training deserves to be higher on the negotiating agenda. Trade unions have a responsibility to raise the profile of training and to ensure that employers honour their own responsibilities.

Unlikely, very important. A highly competitive, rapidly changing industrial sector will not be prepared to implement the level of security which supports this type of agreement.

The potential is far less collective bargaining as jobs and work become more individual lives. However, as a result of this firms will become more involved in training to maintain their competitive edge.

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Particularly through sector specific and regional bodies influencing vocational education and training. SO

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Context B: Employment and the labour market

B1 Employers will require more and more people to adopt flexible working practices

The technology will drive us towards flexible working practices, and this is already accelerating. What is more, employment legislation and the Social Chapter are likely to increase the amount of professional flexible working.

Current trends are in this direction, but there could be a backlash due to effects on family and community life.

The traditional investors in training, employers, will withdraw their financial support from the flexible workers, and this will seriously disrupt traditional patterns of funding and make it difficult to encourage continuing professional development.

Safeguards against unscrupulous employers are important, because some will take advantage of this changing situation. l

It is important to us that we have people available full-time where possible.

B3 The workplace will become more multicultural

I do not envisage a large influx of employees from other European Union countries. There will be strong counter pressures of local culture and language differences. Genuine multiculturalism is unlikely below the top levels of larger companies.

This is already happening. It is a major demographic factor in changing structure of the European workforce..

People will need to work together, but may not find it easy. First, you must overcome the barriers of racism, bigotry and ignorance.

Increasing globalisation of markets will mean that successful businesses will trade world-wide.

B4 The ageing of employees will inhibit change and innovation

The elderly of the future will be more flexible and adaptable than the elderly of the past.

It should not. It need not. But it might. With the right preparation such as multi-skilling and education

the next pensionable generation will have learned to be flexible. It is the only the fear of change that inhibits innovation.

The ability of older employees to grasp change has been significantly underestimated. They do, however, a need to be convinced of the need for and benefit of change.

B5 The concept of the 'Learning Organisation' will be widely accepted and applied

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This is very important – there is a growing recognition of cultural, human and commercial dividends.

There are many different conceptualisations of the learning organisation, and very different implications for implementation.

This is a fashion statement. The concept of the learning organisation is yesterday's news. The latest fad is busy superseding it, and this is knowledge management. In reality, financial performance and labour shortages will remain the dominant influence.

External training - and training concepts - are not usually appropriate for small firms. The bulk of their training is on the job and often needs to fundamentally change.

It will start with large companies, but will spread with help from agencies such as the

B6 Hierarchies will become much less pronounced

Line management will still be significant for large companies. Small firms are always closer to the shop floor.

Hierarchies change, but we will undoubtedly find some new ways to stratify ourselves. Covert hierarchies will be as important as ever.

Team working and shared approaches to decision-making should emerge, although history suggests otherwise.

Vested interests instructors will resist this kind of change, but the number of levels in hierarchies is reducing.

Companies are going global very quickly and structures will have to keep up. The pace of change is set to accelerate - those not in tune with the new technological world will have to rely on those who are. This will break down traditional demarcation lines of authority and seniority.

B7 An ageing population will enhance lifelong learning

In the UK the present elderly population is probably be the last generation to be stratified by its past.

If only this was likely! Such policies are rare and need promoting. Western Europe will have to redefine retirement age and the legal framework for workers of 60 and older.

Upskilling of older workers is vital that it will take a long while to move cultures away from prioritising the young.

Especially women returners?

B8 Unemployment among young people under 25 will increase, compared to other age groups.

The transition has become longer and more difficult for people at all educational levels in the past 30 years, but educational improvements are mitigating this.

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Only for a small minority. Youth labour has a significant demand and young people will retain the advantage of offering cheaper employment. Furthermore, demography means that young people will become a relatively scarce resource.

This is too broad a generalisation. Geography and individual attainment levels will provide ever wider variance.

Not if the education system prepares them properly. Basic skills learning needs encouragement.

B10 Tackling disaffection among some social groups will become an important priority

Social disaffection will lead to greater polarisation of minority groups so this will become a more urgent area for public priority.

Increased wealth for certain groups will lead possibly to increased social tensions. Provider

There are signs this is now underway in the UK. The government has already recognised this problem and local authorities are forming partnerships with various agencies to tackle it.

The response to the challenge is wholly inadequate. Whether the measures taken will work is another matter.

B12 Flexibility of labour will fit more and more comfortably with people’s life style

Only if this is balanced by real security. The flexibility of labour that the employers seek will only partly

correspond to employees’ aspirations. I do not accept the statement. There is already much evidence of

the social and family disruption closed by these tends towards so-called greater flexibility. Flexibility means instability induced by uncertainty and lack of power in the job market for individuals in society.

However, people need to earn adequately and the burden should not rest only on the workforce. If employers do not want the responsibility of providing social support, they must provide adequate remuneration.

It is unlikely to fit comfortably because there are vast social, cultural and economic barriers to overcome.

B13 The migration of labour will increase

Language and cultural barriers will continue to inhibit social movement. Increased regional autonomy will limit population movement as well.

Mobility within the European Union may become greater than is currently the case, and compared to countries outside Europe.

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This movement will not be large enough to impinge seriously on planning for vocational education and training.

I expect that this will occur mainly in the skilled and professional workforce. ER

This is a very important issue, which requires major infrastructure investment in education. EE

B15 The labour market will continue to be subject to rapid change, so broad competencies will be more and more in demand

It will still be important to gain specialist skills, because

generalists cannot do everything well. Multi-skills requirements are more important in SMEs, which

are now the major job creators. As European output becomes more specialised, so must the

staff. But they must also be relatively flexible as the dynamics will be faster. Ability to learn and change will be the most important factors, and this is not an easy problem to solve.

Unfortunately the UK's system of qualifications and employers attitudes will militate against this change, which needs to happen.

B16 The mobility of labour will increase

Flexible skills are needed in small firms, which can change direction quickly to respond to market needs.

There seems to be no end to this trend, which will also include moves between employment and self-employment.

Culture makes this very difficult in some areas. Inter-firm transfers might rise a bit. A lot of skills are still quite

sector specific.

B17 ‘Knowledge management’ will become generally accepted

For human resource management, yes. But for anyone else within an organisation? Myth or reality?

This is desirable but unlikely, because too few employers have the skills to do this.

Proper knowledge management is the key to future individual and social prosperity. But there is nothing new here, and this was always the case in a very successful companies, which are often small in size.

B18 The social exclusion of certain ‘at risk’ and disadvantaged groups will continue, and even intensify

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The change will not be based on the listed factors. Geography, attainment at school and socio-economic start point may be bigger issues then race or gender.

The vocational education and training can have little impact on this issue.

We cannot afford to exclude disadvantaged groups, for their sakes and for society.

I do not come across these glass ceilings in my own environment.

B19 Young people will tend to need a longer period for making the transition from school to work

Lifelong careers will no longer possible, so that multi-skills will be required. There are likely to be more transitions between periods of employment..

This has already happened to a great extent. It is not clear that it will necessarily worsen as employers’ demand and the supply of better qualified young people are a better match.

This is already a factor and the school the age is effectively raised to 21.

Education does not prepare young people for work and a transition period is needed to develop the skills. We need closer links between educational curriculum content and vocational needs of industry. This barrier will blur.

Watch the rate of return on higher education become more uncertain and variable. The emphasis on lifelong learning may lead away from long initial training and higher education, for example to two year sub-degree courses followed by lifelong learning.

B20 There will be a “brain-drain” to Western Europe

Yes, this will happen, but the highly qualified will by definition be the most adaptable. So this is not very important to the European Union but could be highly significant for central and Eastern Europe.

The inadequacy of the British in modern foreign languages is unlikely to make this significant.

This is likely - because training, remuneration and social aspects remain better in many other European countries than in the UK.

The numbers will be relatively small, but important in certain sectors and occupations.

B21 Social and communicative skills will be more highly valued in employment processes

Communication skills and flexibility are particularly important

for small firms. Other.

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Is this myth or reality? The school curriculum needs to capitalise on the value that we

put it on non- academic criteria as well. There is apparent disagreement about priorities, but this is not real. In the UK the national curriculum is too confining.

B22 Increasingly, the workforce will polarise into those with high levels of qualification and those with low levels of qualification.

If this happens and is not arrested, the social costs of the challenges posed by an underclass will be very significant. Vocational education and training has a clear role to stop this from happening.

This is unlikely, due to higher levels of participation This is likely to happen, unless action is taken urgently to

engage a young people in learning. At present we are too preoccupied with assessment.

You will always have high-flyer and the socially excluded. The level in between will become more equal, and I think that the proportion of the workforce with low- or medium-level qualifications will increase.

B23 People will develop new combinations of education and training over the course of their career

This is unlikely unless people are allowed to do so by training systems that are designed to encourage individuals to continuously develop, and enjoy doing so.

They need to, but it is less clear that they will do so unless this is actively facilitated.

Adaptability, lifelong learning, is an antidote to unemployment and social exclusion.

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Context C: Training, Skills and knowledge

C2 Vocational education and training will become more outcome-based

There is already a strong demand to move in this direction.

Business is goal and objective driven and enterprise performance is measured by outcomes, so this is a natural and continuing trend. Businesses need to be able to measure the benefits of VET.

The degree to which institutional resistance and interest militates against such development will determine the rate of such progress. This means moving from institutional to learner priority. The aspiration suits the customer but not the provider.

There is no paradise at the end of the rainbow of outcomes. We are chasing a chimera.

Government outcome targets for education will drive this through.

I have mixed feelings. Should one learn for economic survival or for personal satisfaction? I would wish to see a combination of both.

C3 Individuals will take more responsibility for their own education and training

Personal responsibility is the only way for individuals to insulate

themselves from the impact of economic variations and market movements. I myself, and many of my peers, already manage my own development portfolio.

While a move in this direction is preferable, it is not so easy to put into practice. And there are too many vested interests acting as barriers to this.

This is a lifelong learning issue and will depend on the degree to which early education prepares for such ownership. At lower levels of attainment, individuals will need to be led, guided and encouraged.

This has big implications for all stake holders and worrying issues of fragmented, functional learning. The issue of funding will be crucial.

If the strategy is pushed, sectors of the community could be excluded. How will it work in a low wage economy and against the UK's class based society?

C4 Vocational education and training will become more integrated with other in terms of strategies and policies

This links to the broad competitiveness themes, which are already become clear. Customised training will become the norm. Standardised, large, monolithic training programmes will become relatively less important.

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Given the record to date, it is highly unlikely that such a shift would take place. I also believed training providers are too slow to change from traditional methods.

In the field of human relations the acid test is how well individuals perform in the workplace. Training therefore needs to be realistic and not too theory based.

Current national vocational qualification type certification is inadequate

It is not clear that many organisations are changing fundamental behaviour. SMEs for example, have been and will probably remain reactive.

C7 Regionalisation will have a major impact on vocational education and training

This will depend on the sector and industry. Increasing

globalisation will encourage national and even European co-ordination. Delivery, such as through learning partnerships, may organise local provision to meet sector needs.

It is already regionalised but this may not suit large, national or multinational employers.

Much of the current rhetoric is about diversity, flexibility and adaptability. The reality is often more central control and regulation.

This is very important in the sense that regions are already showing signs in the UK of the competitive urge to be better than their neighbours. The long-term consequences of this are intriguing.

A graduate workforce needs national and international flexibility, rather than a local or regional perspective.

C9 Training organised by the various sectors of industry and commerce will become more important

In some countries yes. In others no. This depends on the degrees

of social partnership. I do not predict any significant changes from the current

position. The Sectoral organisation is not always paramount. In any case, past history shows that industry has a poor record for taking responsibility for training. Education should stay firmly in the hands of the local authority and the government. Industry should pay a training levy

This is a vital development that should be encouraged and supported. It will be essential to keep up with changing technologies and organising by sector helps efficiency.

National training organisations in the UK are developing an increasing impact on training regimes for specific sectors. As

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usual, however, there will be a patchwork of provision from the excellent to the non-existent. How to achieve coherence?

One need is to co-ordinate the various funding bodies in the UK.

C10 Older employees will be encouraged and motivated to participate in vocational education more often

The western European population is ageing, but staying youthful

in approach. Knowledge based economies can employ older (educated) people more readily. But this will require a major shift in attitudes. There are significant cultural barriers to overcome.

Learning in VET terms should for life. The experience brought to the workplace by older employees should not be militated against by lack of training or investment in such.

This is already happening in the 1990s in the glass industry. We are currently wasting a lot of experience by assuming that old dogs won't learn new tricks.

If portfolio careers with changes of direction at different stages are to become common, then re-training and updating are essential.

C12 Information and communication technologies (ICT) will become a normal part of formal education and training

We are already moving to this with the key skills initiative at level three, and more than 40,000 Open University students are now on line.

As interactive television and on-line learning become more sophisticated and available, this will become the case. However, are we must not lose sight of the very real advantages brought to learners through some traditional teaching methods, networking, social interaction etc.

Recognition needs to be made for the fact that the IT content of some jobs now is insignificant. It will infiltrate from 2005 onwards even in these occupations.

The success of this will be very long term. At present, ICT is the weakest area in the primary and secondary schools curriculum.

A requirement is that the money is available to keep information and communication technology equipment up to date, in all institutions. The UK government has recently invested substantial funds in the development of ICT in schools, colleges and libraries. However, current funding levels are not sufficient to create a level playing field which will allow all students and teachers to access the technology.

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C13 SMEs will benefit from an increase in the transfer of knowledge, through the agency of VET providers

SMEs have fewer resources and are, therefore, less likely to engage with VET providers. They seldom see vocational education and training providers as serious mediators of technology and process transfer, until they have internalised enough of the issue.

This is the most challenging aspect of for VET. Strategies for encouraging and facilitating SME involvement is imperative. Initiatives such as Skills For Small Businesses need to be built upon.

Not all our SMEs are so backward! In my experience, the technology of SMEs is in advance of VET providers! Perhaps this experience is unusual, but I do think a little humility from VET providers may be in order.

We need to find a way to allow SMEs access to training without detriment to normal company activities.

This is desirable, but I am sceptical that it will really happen except through things like supply chain initiatives.

C 15 Providers of VET will offer more individualised and differentiated courses and qualifications, often on a modular basis

This is beginning to happen to the work of the NTOs. SCA needs

to support steps to achieve this process, to encourage and motivate learning. This will be increasingly demanded by customer groups who will want differentiated qualifications.

Fragmentation is still an important issue. The VET providers may be too unstable to risk total dependency on individuals rather than block and group bookings.

Training needs to be able to match and cope with people's increasingly fragmented patterns of work and life.

The attitude to funding will affect this in great measure. It would already be happening if public funding regimes support it.

With greater emphasis on individuals being responsible for their learning and career management, greater flexibility from providers is essential.

C16 Social and communication skills will gain in importance

They are already very important. Just not dealt with effectively,

and therefore we have inadequate youngsters. This is critical in service-based economies. Organisation needs

are increasingly dependent on flatter management structures with more delegated powers being given to staff, so these areas will indeed again in importance.

Is the requirement for effective team working really different from what it was a century ago, or is it the flavour of the month?

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Small, cohesive units are the future of all businesses and the fabric of society, be they SMEs (who do it best) or global.

The question is out of date. We are already in a position where this has happened very widely.

C17 General and transferable skills will gain in importance.

This is the key to lifelong learning, and must be the case as the opportunity to have one job to for life is now gone.

There is much variation between different sectors and industries. Employers talk about to transferable skills, but often appoint on the basis of specialist skills.

General and transferable skills are not well conceived. Does language include the ability to speak foreign languages? How about becoming a person as well?

C20 Tackling social exclusion will receive higher priority

This is hard to predict. We tend to swing between focus on economic development and a focus on social exclusion, when in fact we need both in balance. This will be essential for a stable society.

As lower level and unskilled jobs disappear, this problem is going to grow, not diminish. I do not believe that the cycle will ever be broken for many.

There is no guarantee of success with current policies. The size of the challenge should not be under-estimated. This is a very complex area which will not be resolved overnight.

I see very faint government commitment to this. Neo-liberal economic policies will inhibit progress.

C21 Vocational education and training programmes will become more varied and flexible

Employers will not carry on paying for undercooked

experiments. This is important, but the emergence of the QCA role in the

accreditation of awarding bodies and qualifications is likely to slow it down. The system is slow to change!

If programs become more modular and flexible, then it will be possible to combine highly specific job related training with the broad base of general skills and knowledge.

Few skills are single job related anyway. With greater emphasis on individuals being responsible for their

learning and career management, greater flexibility from providers is essential.

C23 Enterprises will provide training for more unemployed people, and have a role in their re-integration into the workforce

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The role of companies is to make a profit and there may be considerable resistance to integrating the unemployed in significant numbers - unless they are paid for by central government.

This depends on labour market conditions and prevailing values in society. Social responsibility may be part of a progressive company's balance sheet, but short termism will make this vulnerable and exceptional.

It is to be hoped, but I am not convinced. With few exceptions among the larger companies, they would not be able to accept anything other than a peripheral involvement.

This will happen in some sectors linked to social exclusion and community regeneration projects.

Most companies would argue that this should be done by the state.

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Appendix 3 VET systems in the UK: An outline of recent changes

Publicly-led education and training in the UK corresponds to a more-or-less federal model, with England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland each looking rather different. This summary deals primarily with England. A particular tradition that persists in the field of initial and continuing training (a field that has seen many changes and reforms in the UK over the past decade) is that the key decisions on training needs and how training should be provided are in the hands of employers. It was this ‘voluntarist’ tradition that maintained the apprenticeship and which meant that only for one short period was a training levy made on employers. Their participation is voluntary. Today, according to one source, 57 per cent of continuing training is funded by the employer, 20 per cent by the state and 13 per cent is self-funded (Source: Labour Force Survey, autumn 1996).

The basic relationship between employers, government and individuals in the organisation and funding of training is summed up in a recent government publication on education and training in Britain, designed for people outside the UK who need to understand the British system:

Training in Britain takes place in a free market and is available from a wide range of public and private sector providers. Employers decide what investment to make in skills and individuals are encouraged to take the initiative to develop their skills in a culture of lifelong learning. Competence based qualification (National Vocational qualifications – Scottish Vocational Qualifications in Scotland) certify an individual's ability to meet the skills standards required at work. The Government's main role is to provide guidance and to fund an institutional framework in which training decisions can be taken. It also finds work-related training, especially for young people, unemployed people, and people with disabilities or special needs’. (Source: Education and Training in Britain, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London, 1997)

Nevertheless, the intervention of the national government has come to play an important role over the last decade. This intervention has been partly in response to the need to develop coherent vocational qualifications and pathways at national level, partly to drive up standards of education and training to become or remain competitive, partly to respond to industrial decline and economic restructuring. One outcome of the decline of traditional industry was high rates of unemployment, although the UK now has one of the lower rates to be found in Europe.

A recent OECD report summarised some of the main changes as follows:

The United Kingdom has in recent years experienced a very favourable economic climate and its unemployment rates, both overall and youth unemployment rates, are below the European average. The labour market is particularly open to young people, including students looking for part-time work. The New Deal programme for the insertion into employment and/or training of 18-24 year old unemployed over six months, which has been introduced with great energy, seems to show positive results. The review team was impressed by the progress made during the last decade in developing vocational education and training almost from scratch, and by the rapid increase of participation in post-compulsory education and training, including in the

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national programme of Modern Apprenticeship. Of particular interest for the outside observer is the ongoing process of establishing and improving a qualifications framework, together with the modularisation of all post-compulsory education and training. While not exempt from problems, these changes are creating favourable conditions for the development of a genuine system of lifelong learning and -- potentially -- for increasingly integrated pathways of general and vocational education and training. The growing mobilisation and involvement of industry in education and training and the creation of a new network of National Training Organisations (NTOs) with responsibilities for influencing education as well as training at the sector level reflects another important development. At the same time, we saw reasons for concern especially with regard to the approximately 10% of young people who, at the age of 16, are neither in education nor in the labour market, and the 40% of 19-24 year olds who have not reached what is widely considered as a minimum level of qualification (NVQ Level 2 or equivalent). The variable quality of the content and assessment of these minimum qualifications are a further reason for concern. Several problem areas have attracted our particular attention in this respect: the orientations and support provided to schools and teachers in compulsory education which would enable them to respond more effectively to the needs of young people at risk; possibilities for providing a less selective and more inclusive and encouraging learning environment; and problems related to the definition, accreditation and certification of “competency-based” qualifications, especially those acquired exclusively at the work place.Another important set of issues relates to the functioning of “training markets”. In this context, we see difficulties especially in two respects: the multitude of more or less independent agencies (“quasi autonomous non-governmental organisations”, “QANGOs”) intervening as brokers and as certifying bodies between training providers, learners and government institutions, and the centralised and relatively bureaucratic modes of financing. Decision making and implementation power at the local level have created a wide range of opportunities for impressive inventiveness, enthusiasm and initiative in intermediary bodies and in post-secondary schools, especially Further Education Colleges. At the same time, it has led to sometimes excessive competition between training providers and between intermediary bodies which can be costly and which raises equity problems with regard to access to further and higher education and training.We believe that the United Kingdom has experienced a particularly thought provoking evolution at the interface between the labour market and the education and training system which has resulted from a long period of active “system engineering”, driven by education and employment policies at the central government level. Education and training provision are evolving towards flexibility, responsiveness to the needs of learners and enterprises, and open and diversified education and training pathways which allow for early combinations of work and study and provide many opportunities for the acquisition of qualifications throughout working life. Other countries should be able to learn from both the successes as well as the tensions and problems which have arisen in this process.’ (Source: Thematic Review Of The Transition From Initial Education To Working Life UK note, OECD, June 1999; pages 2-3)

These reforms have seen established a raft of vocational qualifications and pathways:

National Vocational Qualifications (NVQs)at levels 1 to 4General national Vocational Qualifications (GNVQs) at levels 1 to 3A system of Modern ApprenticeshipsA reformed system of ‘youth training’ schemes called National Traineeships.

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Finally, the institutional frameworks for the overall regulation, management and financing of the education and training system have undergone much reform over a decade;

The education and employment ministries have amalgamated to form the Department for Education and Employment (DfEE).

The government agencies dealing with curriculum and assessment have merged, so have the government agencies dealing general and vocational qualifications, to form the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority (QCA).

The industrial lead bodies have reformed in a more coherent way, as sectoral National Training Organisations (NTOs).

The government agencies dealing with the funding of the further education colleges (the Further Education Funding Council) and the agency funding the work-based training route (the Training and Enterprise Councils) will merge within two years to form a national Learning and Skills Council, with 47 sub-regional organisations.

As this appendix has pointed out, these descriptions apply to England, rather than to all parts of the UK. Hopefully, they give a flavour; to describe the variants for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland would be complex. In any case, it should be noted that the Scottish Parliament, and Assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland mean that the differences between the systems of the ‘home nations’ of the UK are likely to increase.

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