$8 BILLION HOLE IN RECKLESS NDP SPENDING PLANS NDP will massively hike taxes on Canadian families

The Honourable Jason Kenney today outlined an $8 billion hole in the NDP’s reckless spending plans. He called on Thomas Mulcair to come clean with Canadians on how he plans to pay for the billions upon billions of new spending promises.

New NDP spending promises total $13.8 billion in the first year, growing to $34.5 billion when fully implemented. This total does not even include 125 promises not yet costed. But even the NDP’s job killing tax hike on business and taking away benefits for families does not even come close to covering the cost of these new promises, leaving Canadian taxpayers on the hook for $8 billion. This means the NDP will impose massive tax hikes on Canadian families – on top of the tax hikes the NDP has already promised.

“Canadians can’t afford the NDP,” Kenney said. “We are only a third of the way through this campaign and already their reckless spending would mean massive tax hikes. The NDP have said they would raise taxes on our job-creators, cancel income splitting for Canadian families as well as the recent TFSA increases, but this still leaves them with the need for at least $8 billion in additional taxes in year one alone – the year they claim they will also balance the budget.”

Since becoming leader, Mulcair and his NDP team have promised impractical increases in EI spending, a massive government-run daycare scheme that would benefit only a small percentage of Canadian families, questionable investments in green energy, a massive social housing plan, and a $9 billion dollar increase in spending for foreign aid.

This is a clear contrast with the approach of Prime Minister Stephen Harper who has cut taxes for Canadian families while keeping our economy strong. Conservatives have lowered the tax burden for the average Canadian family by $6,600, all while preserving programs Canadians count on and balancing the budget.

“Tax increases to pay for the NDP’s reckless promises would wreck our economy,” Kenney said. “Canadians already know that the NDP cannot control spending, and their promises just prove that.”

“In this election every Canadian voter needs to ask the simple question,” Kenney concluded, “Which leader has the proven experience to keep our economy strong?”

8/30 1

ITEM COST Cost DATE SOURCES(initial  year) (Full  or  2020/21)

EI  Replacement  Rate  from  55%  to  60%   $1,615,000,000 $1,615,000,000 30-­‐Apr-­‐13 MP  websites  and  debate  on  Bill  C-­‐44360-­‐Hour  Replacement $2,180,000,000 $2,180,000,000 30-­‐Apr-­‐13 MP  websites  and  debate  on  Bill  C-­‐44GIS $100,000,000 $400,000,000 24-­‐Aug-­‐15 NDP  Campaign  press  releaseGovernment-­‐run  daycare   $290,000,000 $5,000,000,000 14-­‐Oct-­‐14 Backgrounder:  Mulcair's  Plan  -­‐  Affordable  ChildcareCBC  funding  increase $80,000,000 $115,000,000 22-­‐Jan-­‐15 Backgrounder:  Mulcair’s  Plan  -­‐  Protecting  Our  Public  BroadcasterMail  Delivery   $400,000,000 $400,000,000 21-­‐May-­‐15 NDP  News  Release,  The  NDP  will  reinstate  door-­‐to-­‐door  mail  deliveryGreen  R&D  and  renewable  energy     $1,155,000,000 $2,155,000,000 17-­‐Dec-­‐13 NDP  Finance  Committee  Minority  Reports,  Dec  2013  &  Dec  2014  ecoENERGY  Retrofit  program $355,129,695 $355,129,695 10-­‐Dec-­‐14 NDP  Finance  Committee  Minority  Reports,  Dec  2013  &  Dec  2014  Transfers  to  Provinces $0 $4,942,877,122 10-­‐Dec-­‐14 NDP  Finance  Committee  Minority  Report,  Dec  2014National  housing  strategy $5,500,000,000 $5,500,000,000 10-­‐Dec-­‐14 NDP  Finance  Committee  Minority  Report,  Dec  2014Double  gas  tax  transfer  to  municipalities   $500,000,000 $1,500,000,000 06-­‐Jun-­‐15 NDP  Press  Release,  Speech  to  FCM,  NDP  Finance  Committee  Minority  Report.Transit  Plan $1,300,000,000 $1,300,000,000 06-­‐Jun-­‐15 Press  Release,  Tom  Mulcair’s  plan  to  build  stronger  cities  and  communitiesForeign  Aid $250,000,000 $9,000,000,000 01-­‐Mar-­‐12 Thomas  Mulcair  leadership  documentsDestination  Canada $10,000,000 $10,000,000 17-­‐Aug-­‐15 NDP  Campaign  press  releaseDisaster  Preparedness $9,000,000 $9,000,000 18-­‐Aug-­‐15 NDP  Campaign  press  releaseOfficer  recruitment   $62,500,000 $100,000,000 19-­‐Aug-­‐15 NDP  Campaign  press  releaseTotal  New  Spending $13,806,629,695 $34,582,006,817

Corporate  Tax  Increase   $3,700,000,000 23-­‐Aug-­‐15 Canadian  Press,  Mulcair  statementsCancel  Income  Splitting $1,935,000,000 21-­‐Apr-­‐15 Mulcair  statementsTFSA  Increases $160,000,000 21-­‐Apr-­‐15 Mulcair  statements  Identified  New  Revenue $5,795,000,000

MINIMUM  SHORTFALL -­‐$8,011,629,695

NDP  SPENDING  PLANS

NOTE:  We  have  made  every  attempt  to  use  NDP  sources  or  numbers  for  our  cost  estimates.  That  does  not  mean,  however,  that  we  accept  those  estimates  as  authoritative.  For  example,  we  stand  by  our  longstanding  dynamic  forecast  of  $4  billion  for  the  cost  of  360  Hour  Replacement  even  though  we  have  used  the  PBOs  static  estimate  here.

8/30 2

EI Replacement Rate from 55% to 60% NDP Promise: “…. raising the rate of benefits to 60% rather than what it is today and improving the quality and monitoring of training and retraining across the country, so that individuals have the ability to improve their skills while they are on EI benefits.” – Rathika Sitsabaiesan, September 27, 2012 - “In Debate: Bill C-44 Changes to Employment Insurance,” September 27, 2012. http://rathikasitsabaiesan.ndp.ca/post/in-debate-bill-c-44-changes-to-employment-insurance

“Further to this point, and to ensure that EI provides meaningful benefit levels, the rate of benefits should make their way to 60 per cent of insurable earnings.” – Matthew Kellway, October 1st, 2012 - “Matthew Kellway Outlines Impact of Changes to EI Program,” October 1st, 2012. http://matthewkellway.ndp.ca/matthew-kellway-outlines-impact-of-changes-to-ei-program

- “Increase the benefit rate to 60% and calculate benefits based on the best 12 weeks in the reference period;” – Megan Leslie, April 30th, 2013 “NDP on Employment Insurance,” April 30, 2013. http://meganleslie.ndp.ca/ndp-on-employment-insurance

Costing Parliamentary Budget Office: http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/files/files/Publications/PMB_EI_Note.pdf

- 2014/15 estimated cost of $1,615 Billion TD Bank http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/td-economics-special-gb0409-ei.pdf

- 2009 estimated cost of $1.25 billion

8/30 3

360-Hour Replacement NDP Promise “Bring the eligibility threshold back to a minimum of 360 working hours, regardless of the unemployment rate in the applicant’s area;” – Megan Leslie, April 30th, 2013 - “NDP on Employment Insurance,” April 30, 2013. http://meganleslie.ndp.ca/ndp-on-employment-insurance “As the last proposition, I would propose that we return the qualifying period to a minimum of 360 hours of work, irrespective of the regional rate of unemployment. This is a critically important proposition.” – Matthew Kellway, October 1st, 2012 - “Matthew Kellway Outlines Impact of Changes to EI Program,” October 1st, 2012. http://matthewkellway.ndp.ca/matthew-kellway-outlines-impact-of-changes-to-ei-program “We called for eliminating the two-week waiting period for people to qualify for EI benefits, returning the qualifying period to a minimum of 360 hours of work regardless of the regional rate of unemployment, raising the rate of benefits to 60% rather than what it is today and improving the quality and monitoring of training and retraining across the country, so that individuals have the ability to improve their skills while they are on EI benefits.” – Rathika Sitsabaiesan, September 27, 2012 - “In Debate: Bill C-44 Changes to Employment Insurance,” September 27, 2012. http://rathikasitsabaiesan.ndp.ca/post/in-debate-bill-c-44-changes-to-employment-insurance Costing Parliamentary Budget Office: http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/files/files/Publications/PMB_EI_Note.pdf

- 2014/15 estimated cost of $2.18 Billion Joe Oliver letter to the editor: http://www.thestar.com/opinion/letters_to_the_editors/2014/09/28/liberal_ei_plan_on_wrong_track.html

- 2014/15 cost of $4 Billion

8/30 4

GIS NDP Promise “An NDP government will complete the work started by Jack Layton and boost the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) by $400 million, as well as consult with experts and stakeholders to ensure seniors that are most in need will benefit from this initiative. The NDP has already committed to reversing Stephen Harper’s plan to raise the eligibility for Old Age Security from 65 to 67.” http://www.ndp.ca/news/mulcair-announces-plan-to-lift-200000-seniors-out-poverty Costing Mulcair said that the NDP would start by increasing GIS by $100 million rising to $400 million year 4.

8/30 5

DayCare NDP Promise “Tom Mulcair and the New Democrats will create a Canadian early childhood education and childcare program with a goal that parents won’t pay more than $15 per day per child. Here’s how:

• Work with the provinces, territories and Indigenous communities to fund and develop national early childhood education and childcare programs delivered with common principles like affordability, availability and quality.

• Enshrine the program in legislation. • Ensure long-term, predictable funding so provinces and communities can plan

ahead: this will be phased in over an eight year time period. • Set measurable benchmarks with publically available reporting. • Support or maintain the creation of one million new childcare spaces within eight

years, when the program is fully phased in. • Recognize that provinces and territories have jurisdiction over the delivery of early

childhood education and child care. “Mulcair’s plan progressively boosts federal investment in childcare. After eight years, this annual federal investment will have increased by $5 billion. The first step, to be achieved within four years, is to fund 370,000 new affordable childcare spaces with an annual investment of $1.9 billion.” Media Backgrounder: Mulcair's Plan - Affordable Childcare. October 14, 2014. - http://www.ndp.ca/sites/default/files/news/141014-childcare-mediabackgrounder-en_ottawa.pdf Costing http://www.ndp.ca/sites/default/files/news/141014-childcare-mediabackgrounder-en_ottawa.pdf

- $390 million in year one growing to total cost of $5 billion

8/30 6

CBC NDP Promise “Tom Mulcair’s New Democrat team will strengthen our public broadcaster—by providing the tools it needs to carry out its mandate effectively:

• Cancel the $115 million in cuts announced in the 2012 budget;” - Media Backgrounder: Mulcair’s Plan - Protecting Our Public Broadcaster. p. 2. January 22, 2015.- http://www.ndp.ca/sites/default/files/news/20150122-cbc-radcan-backgrounder_en.pdf Costing “Everything that we’re putting on the table has been costed – Same thing here. 3 year, 3 budget cycles. 80 the first year, 100 the second, and back, the $115 full back the third year.” – Tom Mulcair CBC Sunday Edition with Michael Enright - Sunday February 15, 2015

8/30 7

Mail Delivery NDP Promise “An NDP Government will cancel Canada Post’s plan to eliminate door-to-door mail

delivery and will reinstate delivery in all communities affected by cuts announced in December 2013.

- “The NDP will reinstate door-to-door mail delivery,” May 21, 2015. http://www.ndp.ca/news/ndp-will-reinstate-door-to-door-mail-delivery

Costing The one-year cost for reversing the community mailbox policy is estimated to be

between $400M and $500M per year. These estimates are derived from Canada Post’s own action plan, which places the

annual savings – at full implementation – the following way:

• Community mailboxes: $400 million to $500 million • Higher stamp prices: $160 million to $200 million • Franchise post offices and streamlined operations: $140 million to $200 million

http://www.canadapost.ca/cpo/mc/aboutus/news/pr/2013/2013_action_plan.jsf

8/30 8

Green R&D and renewable energy NDP Promise “Support renewable energy sectors to help Canada grow and succeed in a new global economy.” “Help industry capture the benefits of clean technology markets by supporting green R&D” - Budget 2014: NDP Pre-budget Consultation Supplementary Report, Building a fairer, greener, more prosperous Canada for all, FINA, December 17, 2013 http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?DocId=6380037&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=41&Ses=2&File=342 Costing:

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Investing in Canada’s Green Future

500 500 1500 1500

Supporting Green Innovation: From Lab to Market

100 100 100 100

Green Bond Fund 85 85 85 85

Tax Break for Green Technology

95 95 95 95

Green Job Creation Tax Credit

375 375 375 375

TOTAL 1,155 1,155 2,155 2,155 NDP 2011 Platform Costing Document, Green Initiatives.

8/30 9

ecoENERGY Retrofit Program NDP Promise “The Government should restore investment in home energy efficiency retrofits to help Canadians reduce energy consumption and home energy bills.” - Budget 2015: NDP Pre-budget Consultations Supplementary Report; Choosing a Fairer and More Prosperous Canada, December 10, 2014 http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?DocId=6830258&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=41&Ses=2&File=366 “Restore the ecoEnergy energy efficiency home retrofit program.” - Budget 2014: NDP Pre-budget Consultation Supplementary Report, Building a fairer, greener, more prosperous Canada for all, FINA, December 17, 2013 http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?DocId=6380037&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=41&Ses=2&File=342 “The ecoENERGY Retrofit – Homes program was so popular with Canadians—reducing heating bills, helping the environment, and creating clean energy jobs—that the NDP wants Parliament to review its cancellation by the Conservative government.” - “NDP introduces motion to save popular home retrofit program,” March 14, 2012 http://www.ndp.ca/news/ndp-introduces-motion-to-save-popular-home-retrofit-program Costing At its peak in 2011, the program was granting $355.12 million per year and was over subscribed in that year. If the program was not capped, it would cost at least that much each year going forward. Public Accounts of Canada 2012: https://www.safec.ca/userfiles/file/Économie/EN/04%20Studies/47%20Government%20finance%20and%20economy/475%20Public%20accounts%20of%20Canada/Public%20Accounts%20of%20Canada%202012-vol%202.pdf

8/30 10

Transfers to Provinces “The Government should… reinstate the 6% CHT escalator.” - Budget 2015: NDP Pre-budget Consultations Supplementary Report; Choosing a Fairer and More Prosperous Canada, December 10, 2014 http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?DocId=6830258&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=41&Ses=2&File=366 Costing Under the new formula the CHT will escalate by 3% rather than 6% as the NDP has promised

Fiscal Year

CHT under current 3% escalator

CHT under NDP 6% escalator

Difference

2016-17 $36,087,784,800 $36,087,784,800

2017-18 37,170,418,344 38,253,051,888 1,082,633,544

2018-19 38,285,530,894 40,548,235,001 2,262,704,107

2019-20 39,434,096,821 42,981,129,101 3,547,032,280

2020-21 40,617,119,725 45,559,996,847 4,942,877,122

8/30 11

National Housing Strategy “The federal government should take immediate action to address the affordable housing crisis facing Canadian municipalities by renewing social housing agreements and working to develop and implement a national housing strategy as proposed by Bill C-400.” - Budget 2015: NDP Pre-budget Consultations Supplementary Report; Choosing a Fairer and More Prosperous Canada, December 10, 2014 http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?DocId=6830258&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=41&Ses=2&File=366 Costing Canada Mortgage and Houing Corporation http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2013/2013-02-27-1230.cfm - The proposed Bill C-400 would cost Canadians over $5.5 billion per year in rental subsidies alone.

8/30 12

Double Gas Tax Transfer to Municipalities “Canada’s NDP Government will ensure that our roads, bridges and other core infrastructure get attention, starting with an additional cent of the existing gas tax to get people moving. This will ramp up to an additional $1.5 billion dollar annual investment by the end of the NDP’s first mandate to help stabilize long-term funding for infrastructure.” - “Tom Mulcair’s plan to build stronger cities and communities,” June 6, 2015 http://www.ndp.ca/news/tom-mulcairs-plan-to-build-stronger-cities-and-communities “Take action to address Canada’s growing productivity gap with the United States by investing in modern infrastructure by doubling the gas tax transfer to municipalities from $0.01 to $0.02.” - Budget 2014: NDP Pre-budget Consultation Supplementary Report, Building a fairer, greener, more prosperous Canada for all, FINA, December 17, 2013 http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?DocId=6380037&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=41&Ses=2&File=342 “We will dedicate one additional cent from the gas tax to public transit in municipalities right away.” - "Taking the next step on public transit", Thomas Mulcair policy brief, leadership 2012 Costing The NDP has been clear they will increase funding every year, reaching an additional annual investment of 1.5 billion by the end of their first term. http://www.ndp.ca/news/tom-mulcairs-plan-to-build-stronger-cities-and-communities

8/30 13

Transit Plan “Tom Mulcair’s Better Transit Plan will be developed in partnership with provinces and territories to tackle gridlock in our cities to help get Canadians to-and-from work or school more quickly and help the environment. Canada’s NDP government will invest $1.3 billion annually over the next 20 years to ensure predictable, stable and transparent public transit funding for municipalities.” - “Tom Mulcair’s plan to build stronger cities and communities,” June 6, 2015 http://www.ndp.ca/news/tom-mulcairs-plan-to-build-stronger-cities-and-communities Costing The NDP plan says it will invest $1.3 billion annually. http://www.ndp.ca/news/tom-mulcairs-plan-to-build-stronger-cities-and-communities

8/30 14

Foreign Aid “Recommit Canada to spend 0.7% of its GDP on development assistance by 2022” - "Taking the Next Step on the World Stage," Thomas Mulcair Policy Backgrounder, 2012 leadership “We will set a multi-year timetable to increase our Official Development Assistance budget to 0.7%” - Speech by Tom Mulcair at the Canadian Council for International Cooperation, May 12, 2015 http://www.ndp.ca/news/speech-tom-mulcair-canadian-council-international-cooperation Costing The 2011 NDP Platform has a first year target of increasing development assistance by $250 million. Canada is spending $4.97 billion on Development Assistance now. At current GDP (GDP and GNI are nearly equal for Canada) 0.7 percent is $13.95 Billion. The difference in $9 billion. http://international.gc.ca/development-developpement/dev-results-resultats/reports-rapports/sria-rsai-2013-14.aspx?lang=eng

8/30 15

Destination Canada NDP Promise and Costing “NDP Leader Tom Mulcair's Campaign for Change was in Niagara Falls today, where Mulcair announced his plan to promote tourism in Canada. “An NDP government will attract more visitors from the United States with a $30 million investment, over the next three fiscal-years, in Destination Canada, for its Connecting America campaign. This will support small business owners, as well as create jobs and economic opportunities for our tourism, hospitality and related sectors.” - http://www.ndp.ca/news/mulcair-announces-plan-to-boost-canadian-tourism

8/30 16

Disaster Preparedness NDP Promise and Costing “Specifically, the NDP will restore funding for the Joint Emergency Preparedness Program and for training programs previously provided by the Emergency Preparedness College. The NDP will also sit down with the provinces to strengthen the Disaster Financial Assistance Agreements to respond as disasters become more frequent.” - “http://www.ndp.ca/news/mulcair-announces-federal-action-wildfires-and-flood-safety “The NDP says they will spend $9 million a year on this promise: “NDP Leader Tom Mulcair promised Tuesday to inject a "modest" $9 million into natural disaster prevention and relief as Western Canada reels from one of its worst wildfire seasons on record. “Mulcair campaigned Tuesday in British Columbia, where days ago a raging blaze tore through the province's Interior, destroying dozens of homes and forcing hundreds to flee at a moment's notice. “During a stop on the island earlier in the day, Mulcair committed to restoring $7 million in annual funding to a Joint Emergency Preparedness Program to bolster training and equipment against natural disasters. “"An NDP government will assist provinces to keep Canadians safe from fires and floods as the effects of climate change worsen," said Mulcair. “He made the announcement outside a regional park on Vancouver Island, flanked by a troop of local NDP candidates and members of the Nanaimo Fire Department. “A New Democrat government would sit down with the provinces and territories to discuss strengthening how financial assistance is provided in disaster situations, he said. An additional $2 million would be earmarked for disaster training programs, which he says were cut under the Harper administration.” (CBC.ca, August 18, 2015, http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/news/story/1.3194922)

8/30 17

Police Funding NDP Promise and Costing “To help police protect our communities, an NDP government will work with provinces, territories, municipalities and First Nations to provide stable, ongoing funding to put 2,500 new officers on the streets and keep them there. To achieve this goal, the NDP will re-establish the Police Officer Recruitment Fund that was cancelled by Stephen Harper, with a $250 million investment over the next four fiscal-years, followed by permanent ongoing funding of $100 million annually.”

- http://www.ndp.ca/news/mulcair-announces-plan-more-front-line-police-officers

8/30 18

Increase Corporate Tax Rates (June 17, 2015) NDP Promise “Mulcair has clearly indicated his plans to raise the corporate tax rate. The NDP would pay for future spending commitments by raising corporate income taxes back to the level they were at when the Conservatives took office in 2006, said party leader Tom Mulcair. ““There is no talk or thought of going beyond what the Conservatives had when they came into power, so that gives you an order of magnitude,” Mr. Mulcair said in an interview. “The Conservatives have steadily reduced the federal corporate rate to 15% from 22% in 2006. “The NDP leader mused about hiking corporate taxes during a caucus retreat in Saskatoon, while committing that Canadian combined federal and provincial rates (currently averaging 26%) would be “several points” lower than the combined U.S. federal and state rate of nearly 40%. - “NDP would raise corporate tax rate to pre-Tory level, Tom Mulcair says,” National Post, October 9, 2013. http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/ndp-would-raise-corporate-tax-rate-to-pre-tory-level-tom-mulcair-says) “…we will raise the taxes of Canada’s largest corporations to something closer to the G7 average.” - Tom Mulcair (The Current, June 17, 2015) “But Mulcair earlier this month said he would impose "a slight and graduated increase" that would still be "far below the average that the Conservatives had for the 10 years that they've been in power." - Mulcair scales back magnitude of NDP’s promised corporate tax hike, Canadian Press http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-mulcair-scales-back-magnitude-of-ndp-s-promised-corporate-tax-hike-1.3201087 Costing Parliamentary Budget Office Ready Reckoner says a 2 percentage point increase in the Corporate tax rate (the average since 2006 is 17.5 percent) would produce $3.7 billion. While it is likely that the NDP would phase in it’s corporate tax increase, for the purposes of this exercise, we account for the full 2 point increase in year one. http://www.readyreckoner.ca

8/30 19

Cancel income splitting (April 21, 2015) “Yes, we would get rid of Stephen Harper’s unfair income splitting plan. It only benefits the richest 15%, we would get rid of his doubling of the tax free savings accounts – that only helps the richest people in Canadian society.” - Thomas Mulcair, CPAC, April 21, 2015 Costing Budget 2015 puts the cost of the family tax cut in the 2016/17 at $1.995 Billion. http://www.budget.gc.ca/2015/docs/plan/ch4-1-eng.html#_Toc417204257

8/30 20

Cancel TFSA expansion (April 21, 2015) “Yes, we would get rid of Stephen Harper’s unfair income splitting plan. It only benefits the richest 15%, we would get rid of his doubling of the tax free savings accounts – that only helps the richest people in Canadian society.” - Thomas Mulcair, CPAC, April 21, 2015 Costing Budget 2015 puts the cost of the TFSA increase in the 2016/17 at $160 Billion. http://www.budget.gc.ca/2015/docs/plan/ch4-1-eng.html#_Toc417204257

8/30 21