Matt McGlone

Landcare Research

Lincoln

Conservation & Conservation & Natural SystemsNatural Systems

Climate Change Adaptation Conference

Wellington

20 May 2009

With mid-range climate warming (+1.8-2.0 oC) :

•1 million species at risk

• greatest threat in “many if not most regions”

Thomas et al. 2004. Nature 427: 145-148.

 

“Global warming could wipe out a quarter of all species of animals and plants by 2050” – Reuters, Jan 2004. 

15 – 37 % of the groups & species modelled (1,103) may eventually be

driven to extinction, if projected global warming scenarios eventuate.

What are the issues for What are the issues for biodiversity?biodiversity?

COCO22

Temperature Temperature

RainfallRainfall

CloudinessCloudiness

Sea level riseSea level rise

Individual species effectsIndividual species effects

COCO22 plants grow more, use less waterplants grow more, use less water

Warmer growing seasons Warmer growing seasons phenology, phenology, abundance & range changeabundance & range change

Less frosty or frost-free winters Less frosty or frost-free winters dittoditto

Wetter – Wetter – little effectlittle effect; drier – ; drier – big effectsbig effects

Community effectsCommunity effects

Wholesale shifts in constituent speciesWholesale shifts in constituent species

Alpine tree line changeAlpine tree line change

Sea level rise: estuaries, sand-dunesSea level rise: estuaries, sand-dunes

Invasives more aggressiveInvasives more aggressive

80-90% of “alpine islands”80-90% of “alpine islands”

200 to 300 alpine plant species 200 to 300 alpine plant species (33-50%)(33-50%)

Similar % alpine invertebratesSimilar % alpine invertebrates

Halloy & Mark 2003. Arctic, Antarctic & Alpine Research 35: 248-254.

NZ alpine losses?NZ alpine losses?

Alpine extent

2000 AD0oC0 m

Alpine extent

2050 AD+1.5oC250 m

Alpine extent

2100 AD+3.0oC500 m

Temperature increase of 1.1oC since 1900 AD

Should equal treeline rise of 180 m Measured rise 6 m

:

Current global treeline status

Melanie Harsch Lincoln University

Advancing Not advancing

Mt Cook Temperature TrendsMt Cook Temperature Trends

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Year

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an

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ture

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Mean Annual Temperature

Mean Summer Temperature

Mean Winter Temperature

Linear (Mean Summer Temperature)

Linear (Mean Winter Temperature)

Red Billed Gulls Kaikoura breeding colony

Red billed gulls & IDPO?Red billed gulls & IDPO?

Beech forest food cycles

Seeding summer Stoat summerMouse summer

Beechseedfall

Mice

Stoats

Birds breedin summer

Seed-mice-stoat-bird cycle

Last summerfor birds

year

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Log

(se

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pro

duct

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+1)

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Temperature

Seed

Maximum temperature during primordia development (oC)

11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Log

mea

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mbe

r of

see

ds /

m2

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post- 1990

Richardson et al 2005. Ecology

Beech seedversus temperature atflower initiation

•27 known

•Major pests

•Temperature sensitive

1 2

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Exotic ants in New Zealand

Where we are at nowWhere we are at now 70% deforested 70% deforested

90% wetlands destroyed90% wetlands destroyed

>2000 exotic plant spp. Naturalised>2000 exotic plant spp. Naturalised

40% of avian fauna extinct 40% of avian fauna extinct

32 mammal, 34 birds and 19 fish spp. 32 mammal, 34 birds and 19 fish spp. NaturalisedNaturalised

Fire commonFire common

Fertiliser over 50% of landscapeFertiliser over 50% of landscape

Current range Decline since 19705% 75%17% 20%20% 6%2% 90%5% 70%60% ?4% 32%

Kokako (NI)MohuaWrybillDactylathus

Lesser Short-tailed batKiwiKaka

Species

Representative trends

Ranges have reduced in 38% (25/66) endemic birds

Source: NZ Environment 2007; Atlas of Bird Distribution in NZ 1999-2004

What are the major threats to What are the major threats to land biodiversity over next 25 land biodiversity over next 25

years?years?

1 Pests 2 Weeds3 New diseases & pathogens4 Agricultural intensification5 Draining of wetlands6 Coastal development7 Climate change

Major threats to freshwater Major threats to freshwater biodiversity over next 25 biodiversity over next 25

years?years?

1 Hydro2 Irrigation3 Exotic spp4 New diseases & pathogens5 Pollution6 Climate change

Major threats to marine Major threats to marine biodiversity over next 25 biodiversity over next 25

years?years?1 Commerical fishing2 Harbour/estuary reclamation3 Recreational fishing4 Marine farming5 Exotic spp6 Climate change

Climate change

• clear issue

• well understood

• universal, credible threat

• available cheap solutions

• pathway forward

• capped costs

• distributed risks/burden

• economic upside

Biodiversity loss

• unclear issue

• poorly understood

• patchy, ignorable threat

• few low-cost solutions

• no clear pathway

• unlimited costs

• localised risks/burdens

• little economic upside

Some Wellington thoughts…Some Wellington thoughts…

‘There is no cross-government support for biodiversity….’

‘If we gave you more money, you’d just go out and name more things…..

‘Why don’t you just model biodiversity – NIWA have done it for climate change’

‘Looking after New Zealand’s biodiversity is a bottomless pit. – you could spend the health budget. You never have enough money to do the work you’d like to do.’

Al Morrison – Director General DoCMarch 07 North & South.

Tylianakis et al. 2008Ecology Letters 11: 1351

“..higher order effects among multiple drivers acting simultaneously create challenges in predicting future responses to global environmental change, and that extrapolating these complex impacts across entire networks of species interactions yields unanticipated effects on ecosystems.”

‘Projections of impacts will be aided by a better mechanistic understanding of ecological, behavioural, and evolutionaryresponses to complex patterns of climate change, and in particular to impacts of extreme weather and climate events.’

Camille Parmesan: Annual Rev. Evol. Syst. 2006 27: 637-669

Climate risk analysisClimate risk analysis

Is there a risk to biodiversity?Is there a risk to biodiversity?

If so, what can we do?If so, what can we do?

At what cost?At what cost?

How does it stack up?How does it stack up?

Yes

Not much

High

Not well

Final thoughts

But, what is good for biodiversity short-term will be good in the long-term too, mostly

We are unlikely to get the predictive power to act preemptively on climate change

We are unlikely to be funded to do preemptive actions anyway

Grateful for information from:Grateful for information from:Rod Hay (DOC) Rod Hay (DOC)

Jenny Christie (DOC)Jenny Christie (DOC)Bill Lee (LCR)Bill Lee (LCR)

Sarah Richardson (LCR)Sarah Richardson (LCR)Janet Wilmshurst (LCR)Janet Wilmshurst (LCR)

Richard Duncan (Lincoln Uni)Richard Duncan (Lincoln Uni)Phil Hulme (Lincoln Uni)Phil Hulme (Lincoln Uni)

Melanie Harsch (Lincoln Uni)Melanie Harsch (Lincoln Uni)Wendy Ruscoe (LCR)Wendy Ruscoe (LCR)Susan Walker (LCR)Susan Walker (LCR)

John Leathwick (NIWA)John Leathwick (NIWA)Theo Stephens (DOC)Theo Stephens (DOC)James Barringer (LCR)James Barringer (LCR)