Consequences of the MARPOL Annex I 13G regulation on phase-out of single-hull tankers

DnV / Bulkforum SeminarOslo, 13 March 2002

Jan SvenneINTERTANKO

Current tanker fleet:

• 43% double hull share

• Average age 14.2 years

• 13% of the fleet older than 25 years

• 81% controlled by Independent Tanker Owners (Independent share: average age 13.7 years)

• 21% of the tanker fleet on order

• Current orderbook covering MARPOL 13G phase-out requirements 2002-2005

MARPOL 13G single-hull tanker phase-outtanker fleet 5,000 dwt and above

05

10152025303540455055

Mill

ions

Dw

t

Existing double-hull

Existing single-hull

For delivery

MARPOL 13G phase-out

Double hull tanker fleet developmentEnd year

0%10%

20%30%

40%50%60%

70%80%

90%100%

1991

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2007

Est.

2010

Est.

Single hull

Double hull

Comparison single-hull tanker phase-out by year. IMO and OPA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mill

ions

Dw

t

OPA'90

MARPOL 13G

Tanker Fleet Development

290

295

300

305

310

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01

mil dwt

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

No

dwtnumber

Source: Clarkson

Tanker Orderbook development - total fleet1994-2001

152025303540455055606570

Mil d

wt

150200250300350400450500550600650

Nu

mb

er

Mil dwt

Number

Recycling Tankers and Combos

0

5

10

15

20

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01

Mil dwt

020406080100120140160

No

Mil dwt

number

Orderbook and the effect of rule 13G 2002-2007

Orderbook Year when 13GOrderbook/13G

% of fleet have repl. orderbook phase-out -2007

VLCC 19% 2005 61%

Suezmax 25% 2006 100%

Aframax 22% 2006 82%

Panamax 17% 2006 57%

20-60 17% 2005 50%

5-20 5% 2003 10%

All calculations in number of tankers

KEY FACTORS OF MARITIME SAFETY AND POLLUTION PREVENTION

IMPLEMENTATIONIMPLEMENTATION

++ CULTURECULTURE

++ COMPETENCECOMPETENCE

= = SAFER SHIPPINGSAFER SHIPPING

Courtesy ; Thenamaris Ships Management Inc.