Congress, Incumbency, Scandals, Voting Behavior and Patterns, & the Media

Incumbency AdvantageLocal Advantage

Helping constituency directlyHighly visible

Funerals, Red Ribbon Cuttings, Community Events

¼ of Congressional district have met their representatives½ of Congressional district know their name

95% of Congress is reelected in most election years88% of Congress is reelected during “bad years”

Indirect Advantage

“Scare-off” effectthe ability of an office holder to fend off challengers from even

trying to contest the election

This is, in large part, due to institutional advantages:

High name recognition / Large War Chests (money) / StaffsCampaign Experience

Senators aren’t as lucky…High visibility contestMore publicity than House races

Challengers receive more/equal attention Voters recognize Senate challengers more easily

*Also a study was conducted finding that the quality of challengers in Senate races is higher than in House races, thus, making it more likely for incumbents to be upset

RedistrictingPeople move + Populations Change = Need to revise

representation

• The goal is for every Congressional representative to represent the same number of citizens• Obvious exceptions for Wyoming and Vermont

(statewide populations are lower than average Congressional districts)

• Which states have been losing representation?

GerrymanderingCongress controls redistricting

thus- the Majority Power controls redistricting

It makes Incumbency even safer

other times.. It can be used to punish(lessened by unwillingness to run a costly

election)

Scandals

Not just the traditional financial problems:bribery, payoffs, money laundering, corruption

Most incumbents don’t lose reelection even after scandals….

Coattail EffectMembers of Congress ride the coattails of the President

paradise or peril So why is the Coattail Effect diminishing every

election?

Midterm Elections

Pose great threat to incumbentsScandals, economic downturns, trials and tribulations

The 6th Year Itch

After 6 years, the voters are restless for a change

…its about change – not about approval or disapprovalCongressional Elections are BIG DEALS - 1998 Newt Gingrich example

2002 Midterm Election Previous 14 midterm elections:

opposing party lost an average of twenty-six seats

2002 “Remarkable exception” – first time since 1934Republicans gained a handful of seats in House &

Senate

Why?1.Bush Campaigning and Karl Rove Strategy2.Enormous Post 9/11 Fundraising3.War on Terror4.DC Area Sniper Attacks

Voting Behavior40% eligible adults vote regularly

25% are occasional voters------65% Voter Turnout is much lower than Turkey

(77) and Sweden (80%)

AGE EDUCATION INCOME

Patterns Amongst Race & EthnicityWhites vote more often than Blacks (income)

60% White Turnout 50% Black TurnoutNO Difference - Highly educated / Wealthier Blacks

The South has lower turnout than the countryWhat is the historic reason for this?

1965 Voting Rights Act Black Voters/Leaders Surged

Hispanic Vote- More Hispanics than Blacks!

Voter Turnout Stinks

1996 ElectionWorst.

Turnout.Ever.

WHY? Does it matter?

Campaign AdvertisementsPositive Ads / Negative Ads / Contrast Ads

Spot Ads –Quick lil’ advertisements in 10,30 or 60 secs.

Negative Ads Work!

Voters frequently vote against the other candidate rather than in support of the

other

Inoculation AdsWhen faced with a Negative Ad, what’s a candidate to do?

Stay above the fray? Or drop down to the challenger’s level?

Historically candidates ignored negative adsFamous Negative Ads from the 1980s changed that

Defeated incumbents with successful advertisements

“An attack unanswered is an attack agreed to”

Incumbents began running pre-emptive advertisements in anticipation of their opponents negative ads.

Free MediaUncontrolled, unpaid attention in the

mediaSpeechesActions (Events)Campaign SpokespeopleOpponent GaffesSuccesses Polls

Is this unfair?

All the news that’s fit to print? Or… if it bleeds it leads!

Campaign Strategy RE: MediaThe Media is more influential than Campaign Ads…..-So how do Campaigns influence the Media to receive

favorable/positive coverage?

First- Isolation“What they don’t know won’t hurt them”?

This reduces the likelihood that campaigns will make mistakes that may damage themselves

Campaign Strategy RE: MediaSecond- Staged Media Events Brief, clever quotes called SOUND BITESThese are stages, controlled environments with meaningful quotes, backdrops and people. These fill news holes.Third- SpinFavorable interpretations of news

You may be rallying support within your base, but the opponents can spin your actions/comments against you!

Campaign Strategy RE: MediaFourth- Media AppearancesLess stressful, but equally as public/viewed

They can present themselves in front of less hostile audiences with less critical hosts

Fifth- DebatesCandidates super-rehearse their responses

You can practice what you say, but you cannot control what the media chooses to highlight!

Candidates & Technology

FDR & Radio JFK & TV Howard Dean &

The Internet