confidential : beyond snipers – transforming soldiers to superwarriors
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IntroductionThe United States Army has lost its edge in small arms. For decades the General Infantry has been overlooked. The individual soldier is fighting with technology that is obsolete and inadequate. They are overmatched by any adversary carrying an AK -- 47. E ven ISIS has a more lethal and capable system (7.62 x 51mm). Our soldiers carry the M4 rifle which was invented 55 years ago. While the Air Force has gone from propeller planes to supersonic jet -- fighters and the Navy has gone from sailing ships to aircraf t carriers, the Army Infantry Soldier is fighting with the same technology deployed in World War I...TRANSCRIPT
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Beyond Snipers – Transforming Soldiers to Superwarriors
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Table of Contents
Introduction Page 3
The Culture of Shoot and Hope Page 4
Advanced Weapons Technology for Soldiers and Marines Page 5
Squad-‐Level Precision Guided Firearms Page 8
Traditional Squad Small Arms Page 9
The Supercharged Squad Page 11
Echelonment of Fire – Impact of Precision-‐Guided Firearms Page 12
Summary Page 14
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Introduction The United States Army has lost its edge in small arms. For decades the General Infantry has been overlooked. The individual soldier is fighting with technology that is obsolete and inadequate. They are overmatched by any adversary carrying an AK-‐47. Even ISIS has a more lethal and capable system (7.62 x 51mm). Our soldiers carry the M4 rifle which was invented 55 years ago. While the Air Force has gone from propeller planes to supersonic jet-‐fighters and the Navy has gone from sailing ships to aircraft carriers, the Army Infantry Soldier is fighting with the same technology deployed in World War I. This happens because the current U.S. Army small arms development and acquisition system is dysfunctional and virtually unworkable, even for those within the system. Lives are often lost as a result.2 This byzantine and anachronistic organizational structure undermines Army leadership as they attempt to innovate. It took Samuel Colt over a decade to get the U.S. Army to adopt his game-‐changing revolver. Even a mandate from Congress was ignored. The Army insisted the Colt revolver was not feasible. It happened only after General Sam Houston aggressively pressed President Polk who forced the Army to adopt the breakthrough weapon. The AR-‐15 was only adopted only because of the direct personal involvement of Defense Secretary Robert McNamara and President John F. Kennedy.2
The Army’s own report – Soldier Weapons Strategy 2014 – admits that the U.S. no longer has overmatch in a small arms fight. Yet available technology from TrackingPoint and others enables the Infantry rifleman to track and eliminate static and moving targets with incredible efficiency even beyond the performance of today’s operational snipers. An astounding statistic based on General Accounting Office data shows that as of 2011 the military used 250,000 rounds for every insurgent killed in Afghanistan and Iraq. Much of the ammunition is used in non-‐lethal suppressive fire. With new but already available small arms, fire controlled rifles rounds-‐per-‐kill will drop orders of magnitude. The need for suppressive fire is greatly reduced given that battle standoff ranges are dramatically expanded. In point firing today, where our soldiers are aiming to kill a particular adversary, First-‐Shot-‐Success Probability on moving adversaries at 300 yards is less than 2%.3 Data on emerging fire controlled systems show a First-‐Shot-‐Success Probability of more than 90% at 300 yards on 10MPH moving targets.3
In comparison to other branches of the military, the Army has been extremely resistant to change. The nation will be remiss if it does not exploit the many modern, often paradigm shifting technologies that are available today in the commercial and defense markets.2 Perhaps it will take Presidential intervention once again to move the Army forward. Many American lives will be saved and many enemies will be vanquished if the Army embraces the same level of technology deployed by the other military branches.
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The Culture of Shoot-‐and-‐Hope In 1999, the Army commissioned a study on the efficacy of operational snipers. Code named Whitefeather, the report concluded that even operational snipers are not particularly proficient shooters. The conclusion was that in general when snipers engage static human-‐sized targets had a First-‐Shot-‐Success-‐Probability is only 3%.4 Mis-‐aiming and the lack of ability to rapidly calculate and adjust for the majority of environmental factors cause snipers to work in teams so they can “walk-‐in” their shots, since they rarely kill long-‐range targets on the first shot. After a miss, the target is moving and the sniper’s odds of impact approach zero. The report points out that this study does not contemplate battle stress and battle kinematics, which further diminish efficacy. This whitepaper is not about snipers or for snipers. Emerging small-‐arms weapons technology is not aimed at the sniper but the Infantry Soldier and Marine. The aforementioned sniper data is provided only to give a sense of the difficulty our soldier’s face when trying to kill the enemy with inadequate weapons and a paucity of training. If snipers struggle with the best weapons and an abundance of training, how can our Infantry Soldiers expect to be effective? The Army fully recognizes that our soldiers are at a disadvantage when it comes to shooting. The reaction of Army leadership is to retrain everyone. “We’ve culturally lost the ability to teach soldiers how to train and shoot marksmanship,”5 said Lt. Col. Bret Tecklenburg. The Army faces classic diminishing returns as they try to overcome inferior weapons technology by increasing the amount of marksmanship training. What the Army is attempting to do is akin to a Native American Indian Chief in the 1800’s retraining his braves to be more proficient at the bow-‐and-‐arrow when the Colt Revolver arrived. Unlike Native Americans, our Army has meaningful options to upgrade the firepower of our soldiers. The only purpose of small arms is to hit what a soldier is aiming at. Given that our Army fired 250,000 rounds in Afghanistan and Iraq for every enemy casualty is a fairly good indication that something is very wrong. Why is shooting efficiency startling low? Some considerations:
1) Humans generally can’t time the trigger release such that the gun fires at the correct point of alignment. According to Whitefeather, this aiming error is true even for operational snipers.
2) Most soldiers don’t understand ballistics and don’t have the time to do complex math in the heat of the battle. Nor do they have the sensors needed to measure and compensate for environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and wind.
3) Few soldiers know how to zero and re-‐zero their weapons.5 4) Estimating lead and holdover based on target velocity, distance, and wind are difficult at
best for well-‐trained snipers, let alone soldiers with a paucity of training. 5) Soldiers lose their skills. They atrophy over time and need frequent retraining.5 6) Human central nervous systems degrade under battle stress. 7) The M4 is innately imprecise and inaccurate.2
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Advanced Weapons Technology for the Soldiers and Marines Small arms fire control technology and weapons are available and proven. Data shows that soldiers and marines can outshoot the greatest marksmen in the world with minimal training.6 Precision-‐Guided Firearms can potentially change the face of war and supercharge the soldier and the squad. Precision-‐Guided Firearms are imbued with space-‐age fighter-‐jet technology and are instilled with the first significant small-‐arms innovations since the invention of the telescopic scope in 1844. Precision-‐Guided Firearms bring several powerful capabilities to soldiers and Marines:
1) Eliminates misses due to mis-‐aiming and improperly timed firing. Eliminates error from trigger jerk and shooter jitter.
2) Eliminates need to zero and re-‐zero a weapon. The reticle is always ballistically correct regardless of target distance, target velocity, temperature, barometric pressure, humidity, and 17 other ballistic variables. Precision-‐Guided Firearms are laser zeroed on every shot. The soldier never needs to zero or re-‐zero his rifle.
3) Initial training time is reduced by over 90%. The need to retrain is virtually eliminated. Much like riding a bike.
4) Shooting skills do not degrade under battle stress. Precision-‐Guided Firearms are based on Artificial Intelligence and are impervious to stress.
A soldier with a standard issue service rifle can eliminate a moving human-‐sized target at 300 yards on the first shot only 1.6% of the time.3 Data shows that a soldier with a Precision-‐Guided Firearm will eliminate a moving human-‐sized target at 300 yards on the first shot 92% of the time.3
Table I
Table I -‐ continued
Guided Stabilized Target Automatic Barrel Suppressive Trigger Target Tracking Ballistics Reference Fire Acquisition System Standard Service Rifle No No No No No Yes Precision Guided Firearm Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
CQB Precision Backup Battlefield Anti-‐Proliferation Hit* Fire Sights Network Controls Rate Standard Service Rifle Yes No No No No 1.6% Precision Guided Firearm Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 92%
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Precision-‐Guided Firearms Precision-‐Guided Firearms are comprised of six primary subsystems; Target Tracking Optic, Guided Trigger, Barrel Reference System, Weather Station, Laser Range Finder, and Networking.
Figure 1
Target Tracking Optic (TTO) – The TTO is based on Artificial Intelligence and Computer Vision. The digital optic acquires and tracks designated targets, and maintains a point-‐of-‐impact designation for the shooter. The TTO includes over a dozen sensors and tracks the background scene, the foreground scene (the target), and the position of the target. The TTO controls the trigger such that if the shooter tries to release the round when not aligned with the lethal zone-‐of-‐impact the rifle does not fire. When a target is acquired the TTO computes ballistics and the reticle adjusts all within 100ms -‐ beyond the perception of the soldier. Guided Trigger – The electro-‐mechanical computerized trigger is networked with the TTO. As the shooter squeezes the trigger the digital scene in the TTO stabilizes and the shooter “paints” the target with a designated point-‐of-‐impact. The shooter continues his squeeze to a full stop and sweeps the point-‐of-‐impact. The TTO releases the trigger/round at the perfect point of intersection. Total-‐Time-‐To-‐Kill (TTK) from engagement to elimination is approximately 2.5 seconds. Barrel Reference System – Advanced weapons systems such as the M1 Tank have laser-‐based systems that continually check the alignment of the sighting system and the barrel. Precision-‐Guided Firearms incorporate the same laser system and check the optical alignment on every shot and adjust aim-‐point if necessary based on any mechanical shifts. The Barrel Reference System eliminates the need for soldiers to zero or re-‐zero their weapons.
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Weather Station – Includes a thermometer, barometer, and relative humidity sensor. Each sensor is instantaneously read at the time of target acquisition and ballistics then adjust based on these readings. Laser Range Finder – At target acquisition time the Laser Range Finder determines the range to target and ballistics are automatically updated. Networking – Precision-‐Guided Firearms have embedded secure wireless capabilities for connecting to a battlefield network. The shooters view is provided to Command and Control and to field leaders for real-‐time target discrimination. Precision-‐Guided Firearms also have the ability to provide picture-‐in-‐picture capability for the shooter. For instance a drone can provide images to the shooter as he engages targets.
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Squad-‐Level Precision-‐Guided Firearms Precision-‐Guided Firearms were designed for the squad not for snipers. There are three models; M600 Service Rifle, M800 Designated Marksman Rifle, and the M1400 Extreme Marksmen Rifle.
Table II
M600 Service Rifle M800 Designated Marksman Rifle M1400 Extreme Marksman Rifle
Caliber Lethality Max Target Probability of Tracking Time-‐To-‐Kill1 Range Velocity Kill at Max Range Precision
5.56 NATO 600 yards 15MPH 87% .047MOA 2.5 seconds 7.62 NATO 800 yards 20MPH 90% .047 MOA 2.5 seconds .338 LM 1400 yards 20MPH 91% .047 MOA 2.5 seconds
Squad-‐Level Precision Guided Firearms
1Less flight time
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Traditional Squad Small Arms The Army Rifle Squad is comprised of two four-‐man teams led by a Squad Leader. Team Leaders, Riflemen, and Grenadiers carry an M4 (5.56). The Designated Marksman, usually the Squad Leader, carries an M110 (7.62).
Figure 2
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For these standard-‐issue weapons the estimated distance for 90th percentile lethality is shown in Table III. For comparisons sake Table III shows the estimated distance for 90th percentile using Precision-‐Guided Firearms.
Table III
The differences represent a dramatic leap in lethality.
Lethality of shots – Static targets1 Lethality of shots – Moving targets1
Service Rifles M4 55 yards 40 yards M600 515 yards 475 yards Designated Marksman Rifles M110 115 yards 95 yards M800 670 yards 620 yards Extreme Marksman Rifles M110 115 yards 87 yards M1400 1200 yards 1150 yards
90% Lethality Target Engagement Ranges
1Range at which 90% of shots are lethal under battle stress
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The Supercharged Squad Precision-‐Guided Firearms can be deployed with the current squad structure with minimal change in doctrine. The Squad Leader carries the M1400, Team Leaders carry the M800, and Riflemen, and Grenadiers carry an M600.
Figure 3
Employing Precision-‐Guided Firearms delivers tremendous squad overmatch capability, creates insurmountable battle standoff distances, and delivers dramatic force multiplication.
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Echelonment of Fire – Impact of Precision-‐Guided Firearms Echelonment of fires is the schedule of fire ranging from the highest caliber munitions to the lowest caliber munitions. The purpose of echeloning fires is to maintain constant fires on the enemy while using the optimum delivery system. Strikingly, today small arms are only slotted for engagements of 135meters and in which is the limit of their capability.
Figure 4
Echelonment of Figure 4 shows that small arms are come into play only when the enemy is within 135 meters. Fire changes dramatically when Precision-‐Guided Firearms are deployed – Figure 5.
Figure 5
Precision-‐Guided Firearms deliver lethality that parallels the standard Echelonment of Fires. The enemy while under fire by Howitzers and Mortars are simultaneously eliminated with precision point fire at distances that exceed the safe distances of area fire weapons. For instance with the enemy under mortar fire at 450M he will be simultaneously under assault from any soldier
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deployed with Precision-‐Guided Firearms. The advantages are:
• Probability of kills increase dramatically deterring further enemy encroachment. • Point fire is safer. The probabilities of friendly-‐fire casualties drop dramatically. • The psychological impact on the enemy is high. • Probabilities of battle victory increase. • Lower casualty rates.
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Summary Precision-‐Guided Firearms can change the face of war and bring our overlooked soldiers capabilities that cannot be matched by any adversary. They deliver new and advanced capability while maintaining traditional CQB and Suppressive Fire capabilities. The accrued benefits include:
• Battle Dominance – Standoff ranges, overmatch capabilities, and force multiplication all increase significantly.
• Mastery Persistence – Initial training time is minimal and the need to retrain is likely not needed.
• Safety – Precision point fire coupled with much higher optical magnifications reduces friendly fire casualties.
• Controlled Engagement – battlefield network integration virtually transports leadership to the field of battle.
• Lower cost of deployment – Reduced ammunition costs pays for the Precision-‐Guided Firearm in the first year of use.
• Loss-‐of-‐life reduced – Our enemies have no such capability. Our soldiers can eliminate enemies at distances that are unreachable by the enemy’s inferior weapons.
• Psychologically Beneficial – Not only are Precision-‐Guided Firearms psychologically devastating to the enemy they are also psychologically protective of the Infantry Soldier. Walking into battle knowing they have a profound advantage lowers stress for the soldier.
The resistance to Precision-‐Guided Firearms will be similar to the headwinds encountered by Samuel Colt. There will be many peripheral objections but in the end the Precision-‐Guided Firearm transforms the Infantry Soldier into a Superwarrior. Footnotes 1 Boots on the Ground, November 2014, ARMY magazine. 2 Jim Schatz, U.S. Military Losing Edge in Small Arms, November 2015, National Defense magazine. 3 TrackingPoint test data, December 2015 4 Static e-‐silhouette target @800meters. 300WM. 5 Michelle Tan, Army Tackles marksmanship Shortfalls with New Training Course, March 2016, Army Times 6 U.S. Army testing of TrackingPoint 338LM, Yuma Proving Grounds, May 2014 – TrackingPoint hit rates; 91%@900yard, 100%@1000yards, 100%@1100 yards, 91%@1200 yards.