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Conference on Energy Conference on Energy Infrastructure and Investment Infrastructure and Investment
in Californiain California
Jeff WrightOffice of Energy Projects
Federal Energy Regulatory CommissionJune 2, 2005
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 1
Total Capacity in 200157,100 MW
Total Capacity in 200566,312 MW
Source: Platts PowerDat, 2001 and 2005 data.
Natural Gas DominatesGeneration Capacity
Natural Gas 54%
Coal 7%
Hydro 21%
Nuclear 8%
Oil 2%
Renewable & Other
8%
Oil 2%
Nuclear 9%
Hydro 24%
Renewable & Other
6%Coal 7%
Natural Gas 51%
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 2
Additions 11,784 MWAdditions 11,784 MW
Retirements Retirements --3,751 MW3,751 MW
Net additions 8,063 MWNet additions 8,063 MW
Source: Platts PowerDat, April 2005.
Recent Additions toGeneration Capacity
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 3
Future Retirements Offset Generation Additions
Source: Based onPlatts PowerDat, April 2005.
Additions 5,998 MWAdditions 5,998 MW
Retirements Retirements --3,065 MW3,065 MW
Net additions 2,933 MWNet additions 2,933 MW
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 4
California’s AgingGeneration Fleet
Source: Based onPlatts PowerDat, April 2005.
30 Years or Older GenerationA CEC study of aging A CEC study of aging power plants identifies a power plants identifies a total of 9,000 MW of aging total of 9,000 MW of aging power plants that are at power plants that are at risk of retirement by 2008.risk of retirement by 2008.
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 5
Source: POWERmap, CEC Draft Staff White Paper “Upgrading California’s Electric Transmission System: Issues and Actions for 2004 and Beyond” July 2004, NERC Summer Assessment 2005 and FERC database
230 kV500 kVDC
Legend
Contra Costa – Las PositasTrans Bay Cable Project
Tri-Valley Long Term Project
Jefferson - MartinTesla - Newark
Sacramento Area Voltage Support Project
Gates - GreggRector - Tap
Tehachapi Area Project
Vincent – Mira Loma
Lake Elsinore Advanced Pump Storage Project
Miguel - Mission
Otay Mesa Power Purchase Project
Harquahala - Devers
Imperial Valley San Diego Expansion Plan
Electric Transmissionin California
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 6
Source: POWERmap, FERC Western Energy Infrastructure 2003
Path 66
Path 65
Path 49
Path 46
Path 45
Path 15
Path 26
Path 66
Path 65
Path 49
Path 46
Path 45
Path 15
Path 26
Path 66
Path 65
Path 49
Path 46
Path 45
Path 15
Path 26
Path 46
Path 49Path 26
Path 15
Path 65
Path 66
Path 45
Path 15 Upgrade WillHelp In-State
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 7
Transmission Help:The Frontier Project
Source: Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study (RMATS) Final Report, September 2004
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 8
Congestion Problem AreaSummer ‘05
Source: POWERmap, NERC Summer 2005 Assessment
East of River
Path 26
North of Miguel
South of Lugo SCIT
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 9
Source: WECC's Summary of Estimated Loads and Resources
55,920
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
June July Aug Sept
Peak
Dem
and
(MW
)
Actual 2001 Actual 2002 Actual 2003Summer 2004 CEC-Statewide 1 in 2 (2005) CEC-Statewide 1 in 10 (2005)
Summer PeaksKeep Increasing
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 10
Source: California ISO “2005 Summer Operations Assessment," March 2005
-5,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000
June
July
Aug
ust
Sept
embe
r
June
July
Aug
ust
Sept
embe
r
NP-26 SP-26
Meg
awat
ts (M
W)
Existing Imports CEC Demand 1 in 2 CEC Demand 1 in 10
SP26 Needs Imports
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 11
2005:Dry in Northwest; Wet in California
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Source: Northwest Power Pool
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 12
2001
2004
Staff estimate based on April Columbia River streamflow projections
RankingWettest to
Driest1 to 451 19 7 25 44 23 35 37
2005
41
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Dry Year = Less Hydro Imports
GW
h
J F M A M J J A S O N D
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 13
Source: CEC, NWPPC, and U.S. Census
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Gig
awat
thou
rs
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Trill
ions
of B
TUs
Series1
1983 20
00
1990 20
05
Exports to California Energy Use in Pacific NW
Trend Lines
1995
2010
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Gig
awat
thou
rs
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Trill
ions
of B
TUs
Series1
1983 20
00
1990 20
05
Exports to California Energy Use in Pacific NW
Trend Lines
1995
2010
Northwest Load Increases,Hydro Exports Decline
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 14
Source: Data from EEA’s April 2005 Compass
Power Generation DrivesGas Demand
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 15
Source: Platts NewGen.
5404385,514Total
58475932008
16131602007
105851,0702006
3612933,6912005
Related gas demand with heat rate of
7,000 Btu/kWh(MMcf/d)
Related gas demand with heat rate of
5,687 Btu/kWh (MMcf/d)
Proposed Generation
in MWYear
Source: Based on Platts NewGen and PowerMap.
Future Generation NeedsMore Gas
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 16
California Gas Facts
11%2.3 Tcf21.6 TcfTotal Gas Consumption
2%0.3 Tcf19.4 TcfTotal Dry Gas Production(2003)
20%0.08 Tcf0.4 TcfTotal Exports to Mexico
15%0.48 Tcf3.3 TcfTotal Net Imports from Canada
5%0.45 Tcf8.2 TcfTotal Storage Capacity
1%2.4 Tcf189.0 TcfTotal Proved Gas Reserves (2003)
% of United States
CaliforniaUnited States
Source: Data from EIA’s Natural Gas Monthly February 2005 and US Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquid Reserves 2003 Report; EEA’s April 2005 Compass; CEC’s NaturalGas Assessment Update, Staff Report 02/05; DOE’s Fossil Energy’s Natural Gas Imports and Exports 4th Quarter Report; and the NEB’s Natural Gas Export by US Region
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 17
California imports approximately 85 percent of its natural gas supplies from other states and Canada. The four major supply sources to California are the Permian Basin; San Juan Basin; Rocky Mountains; and Western Canada.Source: Figure 14 and data from The California Energy Commission’s Natural Gas Assessment Update, Staff Report dated February 2005
California Gas Sources
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 18
Pipeline ImportsTrending Lower
Source: Platts Power Map; Office of Fossil Energy’s Natural Gas Imports/Exports for 2004; EIA’s Natural Gas Annual 2001 through 2003; and the NEB’s Natural Gas Exports by US Region
Sumas Eastport
Otay Calexico
Northwest Pipeline
Gas Transmission
Northwest
OgilbySan Diego
710 742 727676 674
552 544
431477
0 0.3 2 4 13 23 35 4480
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Bcf
/Yr
Canadian Imports Mexican Exports
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 19
Planned LNG Import Terminals
LNG Could Help
Source: Platts Powermap; The California Energy Commission’s Website; and FERC Staff
1
2
34
5
6
1. Baja California: 1.0 Bcfd, 2007(Sempra/Shell)
2. Baja California Offshore: 1.4 Bcfd, 2006 (Chevron Texaco)
3. Long Beach Harbor, CA: 0.7 Bcfd, 2008(Mitsubishi/ConocoPhillips)
4. S. California Offshore: 0.5 Bcf/d, 2006(Crystal Energy)
5. California Offshore: 1.5 Bcfd, 2008(BHP Billiton)
6. California Offshore: 0.75 Bcfd, 2009(Chevron Texaco)
Conclusions
June 2, 2005 Office of Energy Projects 20