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March 16‐19, 2015Orlando, FL
TUESDAY 11:45 AM BANDA SEA
Concurrent Session: Trends and OpportunitiesTrends and Opportunities in European Staffing MarketsSpeakers: Adam Pode, Director, International Research and Analysis,Staffing Industry Analysts Fiona Coombe, Director, Legal & Regulatory Research,Staffing Industry Analysts
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March 16‐19, 2015Orlando, FL
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Trends and Opportunities in European Staffing Markets
Agenda ‐ Economic Trends and Opportunities in European Staffing Markets
Economic Overview
Impact on the Staffing Market
Adam Pode, Director, International Research and Analysis, Staffing Industry Analysts
Fiona Coombe, Director, Legal & Regulatory Research, Staffing Industry Analysts March 16‐19, 2015
Orlando, FL
Eurozone Growth Forecast Upgraded
Quantitative Easing starting
Interest rates unchanged
Low oil and gas prices
Fall in the value of the Euro from $1.40 to $1.10
Labour reform in Spain, Portugal and Ireland
Germans spending money
What’s happening with Greece?
Image: Joos de Momper’s Landscape with the fall of Icarus
Source: Ciett
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
EU GDP Growth 2015
↓
↓↓
↓↓
Source: IMF
US
CA
BRSA
JP
AU
NL
IN
CN
UK
FR
DE
Global Staffing Market 2013 by Major Market
Staffing markets are to scale
GDP Longer Term
‐5%
‐4%
‐3%
‐2%
‐1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
France Germany Netherlands United Kingdom United States
Source: IMF
Source: Ciett national federations, Eurostat
EU Unemployment 2015
↓
↓↓
↓↓
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Source: IMF
Unemployment Forecast
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
France Germany Netherlands United Kingdom United States
Source: IMF
Wage And Productivity Growth
‐1.52
0.18
‐0.35
0.46
2.271.22
‐0.98 ‐0.60 ‐0.34
0.16 0.26 0.80
-3.16-2.07 -2.52
0.30
-2.91
-1.18
0.07 0.45 0.441.26 1.16 1.17
Hourly labour productivity
Real hourly wage
Source: OECD
‐40%
‐20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐0
8
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐0
9
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐1
0
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Apr‐11
Jul‐1
1
Oct‐11
Jan‐12
Apr‐12
Jul‐1
2
Oct‐12
Jan‐13
Apr‐13
Jul‐1
3
Oct‐13
Jan‐14
Apr‐14
Jul‐1
4
Oct‐14
Jan‐15
France
Belgium
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
Norway
Switzerland
Poland
Denmark
Finland
Europe (monthly)
BE CH DE DK FR IT NL NO PL FI Europehours workedY‐o‐y
+12.3% +3.9% +2.5% +14.7% +1.0% +14.5% +8.0% ‐0.8% +9.9% +13,0 +2.7%
Period of reference
Jan 2015
Jan2015
Dec2014
Q3 2014
Jan2014
Dec2014
Weeks 1 – 4 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Jan 2015
Dec2014
Source: Ciett
Source: Ciett
National and Global Estimates for Contingent Work excluding SOW
Contingent Work excluding SOW 2013 (USD billion)
TAW (FTE)
Other Temporaries
Independent Contractors Total
France 27.3 84.1 71.5 182.9
Germany 25.0 56.9 85.9 167.8
Italy 6.3 22.2 79.6 108.1
Netherlands 13.1 37.9 63.3 114.3
United Kingdom 32.8 54.8 144.8 232.4
United States 100.0 77.0 194.3 371.3
Global 353.8 672.7 1,054.7 2,081.2
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Statement of Work (SOW) Consultants
Source: Informa’s MarketLine – figures may not add up due to rounding
The Value of SOW by Region in 2013 (USD billion)
Europe AmericasTotal by Sector
Information Technology 105.5 173.2 354.7
Corporate Strategy 15.8 47.8 66.3
Operations Management 38.5 49.4 96.8
Human Resources Management 9.9 21.7 38.7
Other Consultancy 15.1 30.3 48.7
Law 36.9 67.4 122.1
Accountancy 133.2 159.8 345.2
Total by Region 354.9 549.6 1,072.4
Forecast
Country2015 GDP
2015 Forecast
Belgium 1.4% 6%France 1.0% 2%Germany 1.5% 9%Italy 0.9% 9%Netherlands 1.4% 5%UK 2.7% 7%USA 3.1% 6%
Global 3.8% 8%
March 16‐19, 2015Orlando, FLSource: Staffing Industry Analysts
Stock Exchange
0
50
100
150
200
250
Euro SISI FTSE Euro Mid US SISI
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Stock Exchange
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Very Large Large Medium Small
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Most Attractive Places
Country Market Size
Protection of Permanent employees
Regula tions on Temporary Agency Work
Ease of Doing Bus iness
Economy (GDP 2015 ‐ 2019)
Staffing Market Growth
2015
Long Term Growth Potentia l
Market Competi tion
Pol i tica l Stabi l i ty
Education & Tra ining Tota l
Ireland 6 7 9 9 4 7 7 7 8 8 72Germany 10 9 8 9 1 7 5 2 9 8 68Sweden 7 7 9 9 4 4 6 3 10 9 68Uni ted States 10 3 10 10 5 6 5 1 8 10 68Netherlands 9 8 9 7 2 7 4 1 9 10 66Denmark 5 6 8 10 3 6 8 1 9 9 65Switzerland 7 7 9 8 3 3 6 1 10 10 64Austria 7 7 7 8 2 3 6 5 9 9 63Belgium 8 10 7 5 1 6 6 2 8 10 63Finland 6 5 8 9 2 3 7 3 10 10 63Latvia 1 9 8 7 6 4 10 5 6 7 63UK 10 4 10 9 4 7 2 1 8 8 63Poland 5 7 7 6 6 9 7 1 7 6 61Norway 6 6 3 10 3 3 7 2 10 9 59Portuga l 6 6 7 7 2 6 6 5 7 7 59Czech Rep 4 7 7 5 3 9 8 1 7 6 57Greece 5 7 4 3 5 3 10 10 5 5 57Li thuania 1 5 6 7 6 4 10 5 6 7 57Spain 7 7 3 6 3 6 9 3 6 7 57Estonia 1 6 3 8 5 4 8 6 7 8 56France 10 8 2 6 2 4 5 3 8 7 55Ita ly 8 8 4 3 1 7 7 2 5 5 50Russ ia 5 5 9 3 2 5 10 4 1 6 50Romania 4 6 5 4 5 3 10 3 4 4 48Bulgaria 4 6 5 5 4 4 9 3 4 3 47Hungary 4 7 7 4 3 4 5 2 5 4 45
Serbia 1 5 6 2 3 2 10 4 3 3 39
M&A
2014 4‐8x Current years earnings
March 16‐19, 2015Orlando, FL
2015 5‐9x Current years earnings
Legal Trends and Opportunities in European Staffing Markets
Key Feature: Segmentation
Comparison: Employment Protection Legislation
The Rise of the Independent Contractor
Legal Developments
Adam Pode, Director, International Research and Analysis, Staffing Industry Analysts
Fiona Coombe, Director, Legal & Regulatory Research, Staffing Industry Analysts
Key Feature: Segmentation
Europe consists of 51 countries and 1/10th of the World’s population 28 countries are members of the European Union*
505,701,172 inhabitants (January 2013), 24 official languages**
66% of 15‐64 year olds are employed in the EU compared with 69.3% in Japan and 71.5% in the US
The average employee works for 38.5 hours per week
12.9% have gone through tertiary education
18% work part‐time and 14.8% work on temporary contracts
Europe 2020: Growth Strategy
Employment guidelines since October 2010 for a smart sustainable and inclusive economy:
Increasing labour market participation of women and men, reducing structural unemployment and promoting job quality
Developing a skilled workforce responding to labour market needs and promoting lifelong learning
Improving the quality and performance of education and training systems at all levels and increasing participation in tertiary or equivalent education
Promoting social inclusion and combating poverty
Europe 2020: Growth Strategy
EU headline targets:
75 % of the population aged 20‐64 should be employed
3% of the EU's GDP should be invested in R&D
The "20/20/20" climate/energy targets should be met (including an increase to 30% of emissions reduction if the conditions are right)
The share of early school leavers should be under 10% and at least 40% of the younger generation should have a tertiary degree
20 million less people should be at risk of poverty
Strictness of Employment Protection Legislation
00.51
1.52
2.53
3.54
Austria
Belgium
Czech Re
public
Denm
ark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Luxembo
urg
Nethe
rland
sNorway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Rep
ublic
Sloven
iaSpain
Swed
enSw
itzerland
United Kingdo
mRu
ssian Fede
ratio
n
2011 2012 2013
Source: OECD indicators of employment protection legislation
France Germany Netherlands UK
Proceduralrequirements and notice periods
Strict: Letter+ meeting + decisionDelay min. 5days‐60 daysNotice: >6m‐2yrs: 1mo>2yrs: 2mo +
WarningsNotification to works councilDelay of 7 days + 15 daysNotice: <2yrs=4wks
Choice of 2 tier system (until July 2015)PES: permission from UWV 4‐6wks>5yrs = 1mo <5yrs + 1moCourts: Dissolution (used in 50% of cases) 1‐30 days
No statutory procedures
Fair Dismissal Reasons
‘Real and serious grounds’
Personal characteristics or behaviour /business & organisationalNeeds
Employee conduct and suitability/economic redundancy
Capability, conduct or qualifications; redundancy; illegality; or “some other substantial reason”
Consequences of Unlawful Dismissal
<2yrs / 11 e’ees: 6mo + salaryFines &/or prison
Claims >5yrs
Max. 12mo salary
Claims >3wks
Compensation <2yrs: redundancy compensation based on age, max. pay and tenureClaims >3mo
Collective Dismissals
<2 employees:Notify, inform & consult + notify Local Labour Administration
<5‐30 employees depending on size of the organisation: consult works council; notify local employment office
<20 employees within 3 months:Duty to inform & consult with works council; notify public authority
<20 employees at a single establishment within 90 day period:Duty to consult union or employee reps
France Germany Netherlands UK
Fixed term contract rules
Limited to assignmentsfor: replacement; inc.in workload; seasonal work; delay in start date; usual practice e.g. hospitality
No renewal within a week or 1/3rd length. Max. 18mo
Max. length: 2yrs (4 for new businesses)Max. no. 4 renewals within 2 yrs(Only apply to FTC without an objective reason)
Max. length: 36mo. (24 from July 2015)Max. no. 3 Converts to permanent if chain with >3mo. Break (6mo. From July 2015)
Max. length: none except after 4 yrsconverts to permanentMax. no: none
Temporary work restrictions
As above No restrictions except in construction sector
Phase ‘A’ 78 weeks: No restrictions Phase ‘B’ 2yrs / 8 contractsPhase ‘C’: converts to permanent
No restrictions
SeverancePayments
Min. 1/5th monthly salary per year >1
None for personal reasons / possible forBusiness needs
PES: None (but transition fee from July 2015: 1/3rd monthly salary per year service >10; ½ <10Court: According to age,pay & tenure + correction factor
None
Emerging Markets
Legislator Driven
Social‐dialogueBased
Market Driven
Level of socialacceptance
Illegality grey zone
Legal recognition
Social tolerance
Normative acceptance
Social acceptance
Full recognition
Regulatory Development
No Regulation Coercive regulation
CLA’s in addition to existing law
Lifting restrictions
Social partners to define regulation
Appropriate regulation
Evolution of Regulation on Staffing (since 2008)
3
France
Sweden
Netherlands
Japan
TurkeyIndia
Czech R
Hungary
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Argentina
Denmark
Switzerland
Australia
Canada
UKUSA
Regulation
Lifting Restrictions
New Restrictions in CLAs
Self‐regulation
Germany
Belgium
Austria
Poland
Greece
China
Romania
Bulgaria
Russia
Brazil
The Rise of the Independent Contractor
iPros increased by 45% 2004‐2013*
6.2 million to 8.9 million
Growth marked in Netherlands, Poland and France
IC market in Netherlands worth €25.8bn in 2013 grew by 8% in 2014**
* Future Working: The Rise of Europe’s Independent Professionals (iPros), European Forum of Independent Professionals & Professional Contractors Group (www.ipse.co.uk)
Supplying Independent Contractors
UK: Onshore Employment Intermediary – False self‐employment rules require intermediaries to withhold tax and report all payments to contractors
Netherlands: Replacement of VAR (Verklaring Arbeidsrelatie) system with a BGL for which both client and contractor are liable
Status tests: Control
Mis‐classification: ‘Employee’, ‘Worker’ or those in business on own account
March 16‐19, 2015Orlando, FL
Legal Developments
Working Time: Holiday pay and travel time
Agency Workers’ Directive: lifting of restrictions and the meaning of ‘temporary’ agency worker
European Commission Proposals for a Data Protection Regulation
March 16‐19, 2015Orlando, FL
Working Time
Holiday pay to include overtime plus any payment that is “intrinsically linked” to the tasks in the contract – for normal hours workers
Commission payments to be reflected in the calculation of holiday pay: Lock v British Gas ECJ
Travel time as working time: Privados del sindicato Comisiones Obreras v Tyco Integrated Security
March 16‐19, 2015Orlando, FL
Agency Workers’ Directive
Obligation to lift restrictions on the use of agency workers:
AKT v Shell Aviation Finland C‐533/13 (Finland) March 2015
Clarification of ‘temporary’ agency workers: Moran v Ideal Cleaning Services
March 16‐19, 2015Orlando, FL
Data Protection: EU Proposals
• One continent, one law
• A right to be forgotten
• Data portability
• Explicit consent
• Reduction in red tape
• SME right to charge for excessive/repetitive requests
Ref. Global Overview of Developments in Data Protection & Privacy
http://www.staffingindustry.com/eng/Research‐Publications/Research‐Topics/Region‐Europe/Global‐
Overview‐of‐Developments‐in‐Data‐Protection‐and‐Privacy
March 16‐19, 2015Orlando, FL
Any Questions?
March 16‐19, 2015Orlando, FLImage: Angela Merkel
March 16‐19, 2015Orlando, FL
TUESDAY 12:45 PM PACIFICA 1‐6
Networking LunchSponsored by:
Gary Hamel Book Signing (Booth #45)Sponsored by: