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12 January 2015
Daily Market Outlook
1
Please see disclaimer on last page
Concern in the US and danger in Europe
Expect the SET to take a downturn today, as global factors
overwhelm otherwise positive local factors. Locally, details of the
infrastructure projects will help both the SET in general and
construction sector stocks in particular, but globally
macroeconomic sentiments have reverted to one of pessimism and
risk-aversion, and at least today, the latter look to dominate.
Local issues: The National Legislative Assembly (NLA) members will vote
on January 23 on the impeachment cases against former PM
Yingluck on the rice-pledging scheme and former House speaker
Somsak and former Senate speaker Nikom for their support of
illegal amending of 2007 charter. (The Nation) Comment: The
impeachment cases, especially the Yingluck case, could
upset millions of people on one side of the political spectrum
or the other. However, it would be difficult to attain the three-
fifths of the votes - 132 votes - needed.
Details on infrastructure projects released. The government
has released details regarding infrastructure projects to improve
transportation. These include six-dual track railway routes set to
begin construction this year and to be completed by 2018, as well
as three motorways projects to go up for approval this year. The
biggest chunk will go to the construction of the MRT projects,
where four lines are already under construction, one of them (the
Purple line between Bang Yai-Bang Sue, costing THB63bn) set
to begin service August 12th this year. Seven more electric train
projects are set to enter bidding this year. (Bangkok Post)
Comment: Detailed plan provides clarity for construction
companies and investors’ expectations of their increased
earnings. Expect boost to sector over 1Q15.
Heavy traffic predicted for 2015. On a related note, the
Transport Ministry warned traffic will be considerably worse
throughout the capital during 2015, particularly Vibhavadi and
Phaholyothin road, once construction of the electric lines begin.
(Bangkok Post). Comment: Expect boost to earnings for BTS
railway operator (SET: BTS).
Tax reform tops Ministry’s agenda. Finance Minister Sommai
Phasee has said for the remaining one year of his tenure he will
devote himself to tax reforms to eradicate corruption and
widening collection base. Already under review by NLA is the
inheritance and gift taxes where a 10% levy will be imposed on
bequests exceeding THB50mn from deceased donors and gift tax
of 5% on bequests above THB10mn from living donors. The
ministry expects to push the land and buildings tax to parliament
this month, and expects the new measure will raise THB 100bn
in revenue. (Bangkok Post)
Thailand Research Department:
Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041
Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056
Mr. Napat Siworapongpan (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094
Major Indices Close Chg %Chg
SET 1,529.42 7.8 0.5
SET50 1,017.87 4.6 0.5
SET P/E (x) 16.85 SET P/BV (x) 2.15 SET Div. Yield (%) 2.96 Dow Jones 17,737.37 -170.5 -1.0
S&P 500 2,044.81 -17.3 -0.8
NASDAQ 4,704.07 -32.1 -0.7
UK 6,501.14 -68.8 -1.0
Germany 9,648.50 -189.1 -1.9
France 4,179.07 -81.1 -1.9
Japan 17,197.73 30.6 0.2
South Korea 1,924.70 20.1 1.1
Hong Kong 23,919.95 84.4 0.4
China 3,285.41 -8.0 -0.2
Taiwan 9,215.58 -22.5 -0.2
Singapore 3,338.44 -6.7 -0.2
Malaysia 1,732.44 4.4 0.3
Indonesia 5,216.67 4.8 0.1
Philippines 7,402.72 35.1 0.5
Trading Summary Buy Sell Net
Institution 4,574 2,445 2,129
Proprietary 3,819 4,035 -216
Foreign 10,708 11,578 -870
Individuals 30,416 31,459 -1,043
Total Trading Value 49,517 Btmn
Most Active Value Value Close %Chg
TRUE 3,665 12.00 +5.3
PTT 2,054 338.00 -0.6
SUPER 1,625 20.80 +8.9
KBANK 1,570 229.00 +0.4
PT 1,393 16.10 +0.6
Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg
US Crude 48.36 -0.43 -0.88
Brent Crude 50.11 -0.85 -1.67
Gold 1,216.10 7.60 0.63
FX Rates Close Chg %Chg
USD/THB 32.85 -0.02 -0.06
EUR/USD 1.18 0.00 0.42
USD/JPY 118.50 -1.16 -0.97
USD/CNY 6.21 -0.01 -0.09
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
12 January 2015
Daily Market Outlook
2
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ADVANC (Bt248 BUY 2015TP Bt253) February plans to roll out fixed broadband
services in 10 provinces nationwide, using a combination of VDSL, fibre optic and
wireless broadband technologies. Digital content (video, games and commerce
application, cloud computing, machine-to-machine transaction), will be the
software that will leverage the company's new expansion in hardware over the
next 3-5 years. This is not to buy content but will be done by finding partners.
(Bangkok Post)
PTT expects its 2015 net profit will remain the same as last year, despite the huge
slump of crude price, as it will write off its oil inventory loss last year which will not
carry forward to this year. Moreover, the company would benefit from
government's policy to float the natural gas retail price structure and would
recognize a one-off profit from the planned sale of Bangchak stake, which are
expect to generate income of around Bt10. (Bangkok Post)
TASCO (Tipco Asphalt Plc), the country's biggest asphalt producer, expects sales
volume to grow by 26% this year, driven by domestic infrastructure projects. The
Transport Ministry has set aside a certain amount for new roads and maintenance
of existing ones, with Bt6.1bn to be spent by the Highway Department and Bt1.5bn
by the Rural Roads Department. The company also plan to expand in Vietnam,
Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar to take advantage of rising demand. The company
is due to report 2014 sales volume of 1.8 million tonnes and revenue of Bt46bn.
(Bangkok Post)
Global issues The end of last week saw a downturn of global macroeconomics sentiment, as
well as general resurgence in risk aversion. Ambiguous labor market data put the
strength of US labor market into question, while poor German performance
deepened concern over the Eurozone. The backdrop of geopolitical turmoil,
notably the recent spike in urban terrorist attacks, have augmented risk-aversion
amongst investors, as reflected in the flight to the proverbial safe haven, gold.
USA Wall Street stocks fell on Friday following a 2-day rally as December's jobs
report gave a mixed view of the economy, with financial shares leading the way
lower. All three major indexes posted slight losses for the week and fell back into
negative territory for 2015. US nonfarm payrolls rose in December, topping Wall
Street expectations, but hourly wages unexpectedly fell. (Reuters)
US job growth increased briskly in December. Nonfarm payrolls increased by
252,000 last month after an upwardly revised jump of 353,000 in November. The
jobless rate fell 0.2 percentage point to a 6-1/2-year low of 5.6%. December
marked the 11th straight month of payroll increases above 200,000, the longest
stretch since 1994. For last year as a whole, the economy generated 2.95 million
new jobs, the strongest annual showing since 1999.
US wages posted their biggest decline in at least 8 years. The surprise five-
cent, or 0.2%, decrease in average hourly earnings to US$24.57 took some shine
off the otherwise upbeat report.
The dollar eased on Friday after a US labor market report suggested a go-slow
approach to raising interest rates. The dollar traded at ¥118.56, a loss of 0.91%.
The euro rose 0.43% to US$1.1843. (Reuters)
12 January 2015
Daily Market Outlook
3
Please see disclaimer on last page
Europe European shares snapped a 2-day winning streak on Friday, ahead of key
US non-farm payrolls data, after Spain’s Banco Santander the largest bank in
Europe unveiled a capital hike and dividend cut. Adding to the negative
sentiment, industrial and trade data from Germany were weak. The pan-
European FTSEurofirst 300 index dipped back late on Friday to close 1.7% lower
at 1,345.60 points. (Reuters)
Industrial output from Germany, Europe's No. 1 economy, in November fell
0.1% MoM, compared with a Reuters consensus forecast gain of 0.4%. Exports
also fell sharply. (Reuters)
Asia Abe's ¥96.3tn (US$813bn) draft budget for the year from April, is to be
approved by the Cabinet on Wednesday and submitted to an upcoming session of Parliament, is up from this fiscal year's initial ¥95.9tn. (Reuters)
The People's Bank of China will continue to maintain "prudent" monetary policy in 2015, keeping credit growth stable while having its hands free to fine-tune policy when necessary. However, the central bank said it would quicken the pace of market-oriented interest rate reform and push forward on increasing yuan convertability in the capital account. (Reuters)
Commodities Global oil markets resumed their slide on Friday, with Brent and US crude
hitting April 2009 lows and ending down for a seventh straight week, although
prices recovered from their lows after a sharp drop in the US oil rig count. Brent
crude settled down 85 cents at US$50.11 a barrel. US crude settled down 43
cents at US$48.36. The number of US oil rigs fell by 61 units last week, the largest
drop in 24 years or since 1991, to 1,421 or the lowest since February 2014. The
number fell in 10 weeks out of the recent 13 weeks from the peak of 1,609 in the
middle of October. (Reuters)
Gold rose on Friday as the dollar and equities failed to react to a better-than-
forecast US jobs report, and the metal was set for the first weekly gain in 4 weeks
as political uncertainty in Greece boosted demand for assets seen as safe. Spot
traded up 0.8% at US$1,218.40 an ounce. US gold futures for February delivery
rose 0.6% to settle at US$1,216.10. (Reuters)
12 January 2015
Daily Market Outlook
4
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Date Regions
12-Jan-15 JPY
13-Jan-15 CNY
14-Jan-15 US
16-Jan-15 EU
US
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
1 2
5 6 7 8 9
XD
TTL : 38.00 Bt
12 13 14 15 16
XD
VGI : 0.14 Bt
19 20 21 22 23
26 27 28 29 30
XD
TSC : 0.50 Bt
January 2015
Economic Indicators
Trade Balance
New Loans
Retail Sales
Consumer Price Index
Consumer Price Index
12 January 2015 5
Please see disclaimer on last page
CG Report
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2013.
ADVANC BTS GRAMMY MCOT PTT SC SSI TMBAOT CIMBT HANA MINT PTTEP SCB SSSC TNITYASIMAR CK HEMRAJ NKI PTTGC SCC SVI TOPBAFS CPF ICC NOBLE QH SCSMG SYMC TRCBANPU CPN INTUCH PAP RATCH SE-ED TCAP TRUEBAY CSL IRPC PG ROBINS SIM THAI TTWBBL DRT IVL PHOL RS SIS THCOM TVOBCP DTAC KBANK PR S&J SITHAI THRE UVBECL EASTW KKP PRANDA SAMART SNC TIP VGIBKI EGCO KTB PS SAMTEL SPALI TISCO WACOALBROOK ERW LPN PSL SAT SPI TKT
2S ASP CHOW GBX JUBILE LRH NMG PPP SINGER TCP TOG UACACAP AYUD CM GC KBS LST NSI PREB SIRI TF TPC UMIAF BEC CNT GFPT KCE MACO NWR PRG SKR TFD TPCORP UMSAHC BFIT CPALL GL KGI MAJOR OCC PT SMT TFI TPIPL UPAIT BH CSC GLOW KKC MAKRO OFM PYLON SNP THANA TRT UPOICAKP BIGC DCC GOLD KSL MBK OGC QTC SPCG THANI TRU UTAMANAH BJC DELTA GSTEL KWC MBKET OISHI RASA SPPT THIP TSC VIBHAAMARIN BLA DTC GUNKUL L&E MFC PB SABINA SSF TICON TSTE VIHAMATA BMCL ECL HMPRO LANNA MFEC PDI SAMCO STANLY TIPCO TSTH VNGAP BWG EE HTC LH MODERN PE SCCC STEC TK TTA VNTAPCO CCET EIC IFEC LHBANK MTI PF SCG SUC TLUXE TTCL YUASAAPCS CENTEL ESSO INET LHK NBC PJW SEAFCO SUSCO TMILL TUF ZMICOASIA CFRESH FE ITD LIVE NCH PM SFP SYNTEC TMT TWFPASK CGS FORTH JAS LOXLEY NINE PPM SIAM TASCO TNL TYM
A ASIA CITY EASON HTECH KASET MJD PL SF SVOA TMI UOBKHAAV BAT-3K CMR EMC HYDRO KC MK POST SGP SWC TNDT UPFAEC BCH CNS EPCO IFS KCAR MOONG PRECHA SIMAT SYNEX TNPC UWCAEONTS BEAUTY CPL F&D IHL KDH MPIC PRIN SLC TBSP TOPP VAROAFC BGT CRANE FNS ILING KTC MSC Q-CON SMIT TCCC TPAC VTEAGE BLAND CSP FOCUS INOX KWH NC QLT SMK TEAM TPP WAVEAH BOL CSR FPI IRC LALIN NIPPON RCI SOLAR TGCI TR WGAI BROCK CTW FSS IRCP LEE NNCL RCL SPC TIC TTI WINAJ BSBM DEMCO GENCO IT MATCH NTV ROJNA SPG TIES TVD WORKAKR CHARAN DNA GFM JMART MATI OSK RPC SRICHA TIW TVIALUCON CHUO DRACO GJS JMT MBAX PAE SCBLIF SSC TKS TWZANAN CI EA GLOBAL JTS MDX PATO SCP STA TMC UBISARIP CIG EARTH HFT JUTHA PRINC PICO SENA SUPER TMD UEC
Corporate Governance Report disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors
Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant
to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed
on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative
Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a
general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of
a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate
Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey
result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company
Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Score Range Number of Logo Description
90 – 100
80 – 89
70 – 79
60 – 69
50 – 59
Below 50
No logo given
Excellent
Very Good
Good
Satisfactory
Pass
N/A
12 January 2015
Contact
6
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This report has been prepared by Asia Wealth Securities Company Limited (“AWS”). The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but AWS makes no representation as to the accuracy and completeness of such information. AWS does not accept any liability for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of such information or opinions in this report. Before making your own independent decision to invest or enter into transaction, investors should study this report carefully and should review information relating. All rights are reserved. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person in any manner for any purpose without permission of AWS. Investment in securities has risks. Investors are advised to consider carefully before making decisions.
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Rayong Province 21000
038-808200 038-807200
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