conceptual redesign of the futurist
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THE FUTURISTForecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future | www.ws.org | MayJune 2011
Timelineto 2040The breakthroughs youll
see in 2010, 2020, 2030,
and beyond.
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THE FUTURISTForecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future | www.ws.org | JulyAugust 2011
Solar Powerfrom the MoonAn unexpected source of renewable energy
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THE FUTURISTForecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future | www.ws.org | MarchApril 2011
A Brighter FuturePredictions of what lies ahead for Americas cities
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CONTENTSDEPATMENTS
TechKnow:NewsinBrie
HIGHLIGHTS:
Eye Exams via
Smart Phones
The Brccoli Plan
Word Buzz: Complexipacity
Cancer Mortality Rates are
Declining
9 Feedback
2 Consultantsand Services
OOS7 BookReviews:
NewandNoteworthy
0 ImagininganAmericanUtopiaARTHUR B. SHOSTAK
In a post-Bush United States,
our successive administrations
work to improve democracy and
the quality o lie in sociologist
Herbert J. Gans utopian
narrative
1 TooFreeorOurOwnGood?
RICK DOCKSAI reviews
Free Market Madness: WhyHuman Nature is at Odds with
Economicsand Why it Matters
by Peter A. Ubel
FEATUES18 ARealisticEnergyStrategy
TSVI BISK
Energy policy must be realistic or it wont work, but
clean and sustainable energy is more realistic than you
may think
39 EmergingTechnologyandtheGlobal Cr isiso Maturity
WILLIAM E. HALAL
As technological development surges, the ability o
institutions to handle change is stied by outmoded
social systems.
48 SavingtheEnvironment:Five CreativeApproaches
CLIFTON ANDERSON
The actions o fve individuals oer insights into howbest to move toward a more sustainable uture.
55 WhatIHaveLearnedEDWARD CORNISH
The editor o THE FUTURIST got a real education
working or the World Future Society
68 VISIONS:ImagineersinSearcho theFuture
GARY DEHRER
In 1955, Walt Disney Imagineers achieved virtual reality
with Disneyland. Six Imagineering principles explain how
they did it.
TENDS6 Economics
Oil Exports May Soon Dry Up
10 EnvironmentNew Greenhouse Gas Threat
12 Technology
Google Searches Its Future
14 Society
Racial Prejudice Declines in Britain
16 Demography
Hooked Up or Just Hooked?
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Artifcial ExperimenterSoftware that can take over the routine aspects of experimentation could
help reduce its costs.
An artificial experimenter developed at Britains University of South-
ampton autonomously analyzes a projects data, builds hypotheses, and
chooses the experiments to perform, according to one of the developers,
PhD student Chris Lovell of the School of Electronics and Computer Science.
The program will also help detect anomalies in error-prone areas such as
biological experimentation.
The next step is to join the AI software with automated platformslabs on
a chipto perform the experiments requested by the artificial experimenter,
using fewer resources in the process.
Source:UniversityoSouthampton,SchooloElectronicsandComputerScience,
www.ecs.soton.ac.uk.
TECH NOWNEWSINBRIEF
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10%the increase of globalplantings of geneticallymodified crops in 2010 compared to the
prior year, according to a study which has
been released by an organization that
promotes crop biotechnology.
Source:www.bangkokpost.com
23% of LinkedIn contacts arealso Facebook friends.In addition, 63 percent of the Facebook
profiles analyzed in the study had at least
one employer listed, further showing the
lines are more than blurred between pro-
fessional and personal networking. The
survey had a large sample size: 5,000 My-
WebCareer users were profiled and their
online presences analyzed.
Source:surveyconductedbyMyWebCareer
45% of college undergrads(out of 2300 surveyed)show no significant improvement in the
key measures of critical thinking, complex
reasoning and writing.
Not much is asked of students, either.
Half did not take a single course requir-
ing 20 pages of writing during their prior
semester, and one-third did not take a
single course requiring even 40 pages ofreading per week.Source:AssociatedPress
Eye Exams viaSmart Phones
Need an eye exam? Theres an app for that. A $2
smart-phone application could tell you in minutes
what prescription eyeglasses you need. Developed by
the MIT Media Labs Camera Culture research group,
the NETRA (Near-Eye Tool for Refractive Assessment)combines software with a small, lightweight plastic
viewfinder that clips onto your smart phone.
Within minutes, NETRA can diagnose whether
someone is nearsighted or farsighted, or suffers
from astigmatism or the vision loss associated with
aging. The researchers claim that NETRA is safe, fast,
accurate, and easy to use.
Currently being field-tested, the device is intended
primarily for use in poorer communities, such as
those in the developing world, that lack access to
proper eye care. While eyeglasses themselves can
be inexpensive, the testing equipment up until now
has been fairly cost-prohibitive, especially for those
in underdeveloped areas.
Source:MITMediaLab,www.media.mit.edu/press/netra
Catching up with the StarsThe Hubble Space Telescope has enormously acceler-
ated astronomers ability to detect star movement,
from 50 years with ground-based telescopes to just
a few years.
It is Hubbles razor-sharp visual acuity that
enables the measurement of the stars motion, so
predicting stars future movement has likewise been
speeded up: Astronomers at the Space Telescope Sci-
ence Institute in Baltimore have collected Hubbles
images from 2002 to 2006 to simulate stars projected
migration over the next 10,000 years.
Source:HubbleSite,http://hubblesite.org
TECH NOWNEWSINBRIEF
TheBroccoli PlanNutritionists tell us that broc-
coli is one of the healthiest
foods for us, but this super
veggie must be shipped from
far away to reach markets
where it isnt so easily grown.
For instance, 90% of broc-
coli sold on the U.S. Eastern
Seaboard is shipped from
California and Mexicowith
less than desirable environ-
mental impacts.
To solve thi s problem ,
researchers led by Cornell
University horticulturalist
Thomas Bjorkman are devel-
oping new strains of broccoli
that can tolerate the more-hu-
mid East Coast climate. Once
the right varieties have been
developed, the project will
also train local growers and
marketers, organizing them
into production networks.
With USDA support, the
team aims to develop a $100
million broccoli industry on
the East Coast over the next
10 years.
Source:CornellUniversity,www.
cornell.edu
TRENDS INNOVATIONSTHIS MONTH
1Bristol-based engineers havebuilt a lightweight bicycle from anew form of nylon as strong as steel , a
substance they hope could revolutionise
British manufacturing.
Source:www.bbc.co.uk
2At the TED 2011 conference thisweek, Google has been giving raredemos of its self-driving cars. TED at-
tendees have even been allowed to travel
inside , on a closed course. The car is a
project of Google, which has been working
in secret but in plain view on vehicles that
can drive themselves, using artificial-
intelligence software that can mimic the
decisions made by a human driver.
Source:tech.slashdot.org
3HONG KONG residents can enjoyastoundingly fast broadband at anastoundingly low price. It became avail-
able last year, when a scrappy company
called Hong Kong Broadband Network
introduced a new option for its fiber-
to-the-home service: a speed of 1,000
megabits a secondknown as a gigfor
less than $26 a month.Source:www.nytimes.com
Making Personal Data VanisDenizens of online social-network
sites have long been warned ab
leaving unflattering information ab
themselves where it could later
found and used against them by fut
employers, loved ones, or voters. Ev
deleting posts does not eradicate th
from Internet archives. Now, compu
scientists at the University of Washinghave put expiration dates on data: Af
a set time, e-mails, chat messages, a
Facebook postings would self-destru
The prototype system, called Vani
tags a time limit to any text upload
through a Web browser. The system
crypts messages with a secret key t
is divided and spread among rand
computers in a file-sharing network
turnover occurs in the network, th
leaving the netowrk unknowingly t
parts of the key with them, leaving
message undecipherable.
Source:UniversityoWashington,
www.u.washington.edu
WordBuzz: ComplexipacityHow well can you or your organizat
handle complexity? Coined in 2008
designer Tom Snyder, brother of futu
David Pearce Snyder, complexipac
refers to the capacity to assimilate co
plex ideas, systems, problems, situatiointeractions, or relationships.
Source:DavidPearceSnyder,SnyderFam
Enterprise,www.the-uturist.com.Down
Snyderspresentationoncomplexipacit
atwww.ws.org/w09Complexipacity.pd
PortableFood TesterNew sensing technologies developed by
researchers at Germanys Fraunhofer
Institute may enable food suppliers to
determine the right time for bringing
produce to market for purchase by con-sumers. The system, based on metal-oxide
sensors, checks the emission of volatile
gases that reveal ripeness, over-ripeness,
or rottenness of produce. The goal is to
make more-portable devices that have the
same levels of sensitivity as equipment
used in food laboratories, reducing waste
if fresh produce is purchased before (or
after) its time.
Source:FraunhoerGesellschat,
www.raunhoer.de
Cancer Mortalityates Are DecliningIn the United States the youngest age
groups have experienced the steepest
decline in cancer mortality, at 25.9% per
decade, according tot he researchers. And
even the oldest groups have experienced
a 6.8% per decade decline, thanks t o im-
proved screening and treatment.Source:VanAndelInstitute,www.vai.org
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TECH NOWNEWSINBRIEF
Calorie estrictionand Healthy AgingAntiaging researchers have long recognized the role of calorie restriction
on increasing life spans, but such diets have negative side effects, such as
reduced fertility.
The key to overcoming this problem may be to reduce consumption of
specific nutrients rather than simply consuming fewer calories, according
to researchers at University College London Institute of Healthy Ageing and
Max Planck Institute the Institute for Biology of Ageing.
In their studies with female fruit flies, the scientists found that varying
the types and amounts amino acids could affect longevity and fertility,
while altering vitamins and lipids had little impact. One particular amino
acid, methionine, was found to be crucial to increasing life span without
decreasing fertility.
Since there are many similarities between fruit flies and humans on a
genetic level, the scientists are optimistic that finding the right balance
of amino acid consumption could extend life spans without compromising
fertility or sacrificing our favorite foods.
Source:MaxPlanckSociety,www.mpg.de/english.Amino-AcidImbalance
ExplainsExtensionoLiespanbyDietaryRestrictioninDrosophilabyRichardC.
Grandison,MathewD.W.Piper,andLindaPartridge,Nature(December3,2009),
www.nature.com
U.S. Companies Optimistic about ChinaAn overwhelming majority (90%) of American companies doing business in China are
optimistic or slightly optimistic about the five-year outlook for Chinas growing
domestic market, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai.
What makes China a bright spot on an otherwise bleak business landscape is, simply,
its population of consumers. Companies in China that are focused on producing goods
for the Chinese market, rather than exporting Chinese goods back to the U.S. were less
likely to be impacted by the global downturn.
Of the American companies surveyed, 74% ranked China as a top-three investment
priority, and nearly 20% ranked it number one, AmCham reports.Source:TheAmericanChamberoCommerceinShanghai,www.amcham-shanghai.org/
AmchamPortal
ecord Number of Doctorate DegreesThe number of doctorate degrees awarded in the United States has risen for six straight
years, reaching a record 48,802 in 2008, according to the National Science Foundations
Survey of Earned Doctorates. One-third of these degrees (33.1%) went to temporary visa
holders, up from 23.3% in 1998.
Science and engineering doctorates have increased by more than 20% in the past
decade and by 3.2% from 2007 to 2008. Computer science had the largest rate of increase
(7.9% in 20072008 and nearly double in the past decade).
In contrast, doctorates in non-science and engineering fields have declined, particu-
larly the humanities (down 7.1%). One exception is education, which awarded 2.1% more
doctorates in 2008 than in 2007.
Source:NationalScienceFoundation,www.ns.gov
Carbon Dioxides Long-Term Impacts on PlantsRising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide is both good news and bad news for the
plants of the world, according to researchers with the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
For instance, both genetically modified soybeans and the weeds that theyve been
modified to resist could be stimulated by increased COO2 levels. Some species, such as
the longleaf pine, would also get a boost in water-use efficiency, thus becoming more
tolerant of droughts. But the pines fitness may threaten the growth and survival of
the plants lying below their canopy, as well as the insects and microbes on the forest
floor, warn the researchers. Moreover, fast-growing invasive weeds could become even
more troublesome as CO2 levels increase to a predicted 550 parts per million by 2050.
Source:U.S.DepartmentoAgriculture,AgriculturalResearchService,www.ars.usda.gov
Personalities PredictSuccessful Medical StudentsConscientiousness will stand a student in good stead
at the beginning of medical school, while extraverts
are at a disadvantage, according to a study of Belgian
medical students, led by University of Minnesota
psychology professor Deniz Ones.
However, extraverts (assertive and warm) and
those scoring high on agreeableness and altruismtend to excel later as they go through the seven-year
curriculum, facing the challenges of interacting with
patients and performing as interns.
Personality traits predict the acquisition of
knowledge, persistence on tasks, and performance
in patient interactions, and thus should also be con-
sidered in medical school admissions, says Ones. This
process could thus help schools identify individuals
most likely to thrive not only as students, but also
as doctors.
Source:UniversityoMinnesota,www.umn.edu
An Index for Climate ChangeData sets on four key climate indicators are being
used to create the worlds first climate-change index,
so that the complexity of the planets systems can be
distilled to a number that everyone can follow, like
the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The International Geosphere-Biosphere Pro-
gramme, a research network of 10,000 scientists, is
focusing on sea levels, global temperature, Arctic sea
ice, and atmospheric CO2 levels.The index is intended to provide an annual snap-
shot of the planets systems, giving policy makers
and other nonscientists an accessible overview of
the complex interactions of these variables.
Source:InternationalGeosphere-BiosphereProgramme,
www.igbp.net
etirementPlanning TrendsDecisions about retirement incre
ingly include such issues as manag
health-care costs, developing an incom
withdrawal strategy, and evenfor
recently retired;unretiring. Ab
40% of financial-planning clients w
are in or near retirement are asking help in making lifestyle changes, repo
the Financial Planning Association. F
of outliving ones income has beco
a growing concern, especially as t
forces of a weak economy and soar
health-care costs converge. Demand
personalized approaches to plann
has grown: Nearly half of the plann
surveyed reported gaining between f
and 10 new retirement income client
the last year.
Source:FinancialPlanningAssociation,w
panet.org
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Solar Powerfrom the Moon
A Japanese company is pitching an alternative energy plan
thats out of this worldand potentially the largest public
infrastructure project in human history.
By Patrick Tucker
An artists rendering o how this
new technology might work
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The year is 2050 and its morning on the Moon. The Sun is ris-
ing over a landscape that is bleak and featureless with one
exception: a wide belt of photovoltaic panels that cuts across
the ash-gray lunar surface like a straight river. Not a single
astronaut is in sight, but a troop of robots is busily making
repairs to the installation where tune-ups are needed. Beneath
the panels, superconducting cables are ferrying the Suns
power to transmission centers. The power will be beamed to
a receiving station near the Earths equator, and from there,
it will be distributed to energy-hungry cities and towns across
the globe where it will keep the lights on in offices, hospitals,
and schools.
Meet the LUNA RING, the brainchild of Tetsuji Yoshida and
his colleagues at CSP, the research arm of Shimizu, one of the
largest construction firms in Japan. The LUNA RING is an
idea that could only come from the land of the rising sun, a
country boasting many of the worlds best-known t echnology
companies, like Sony, Hitachi, and Panasonic, but also saddled
with a shortage of natural resources.
The LUNA RING speaks to a future global need thats keenly
felt in the present in Japan, a nation now also coping with
the impacts of the devastating March 2011 earthquake on its
nuclear power capacity.
My very optimistic forecast is 25 years, Yoshida told me
when I visited the company headquarters in Tokyo last No-
vember. He explained that this is the time required before they
could even begin the lunar-surface activity, assuming that
Japan, the United States, or some other investor was actually
willing to fund the project. The scale is so huge; I dont know
how long it would take to construct. We may have to adjust the
plan and the scale, he says.
If the most exciting part of Yoshidas job is coming up with
bold engineering concepts, the most difficult part, except for
the math, is keeping peoples expectations realistic. Shimizus
company president, Yoichi Miyamoto, was hoping to pitch the
project to potential investors with a start date on the Moon of
around 2035. Yoshida sees this as ambitious, to say the least.
The technical, practical, and monetary obstacles to building
a solar laser power station on the Moon are unprecedented.
But the LUNA RING is buildable. Photovoltaic panels, re-
motely guided robots, and microwave transmission and lasers
are already proven technologies. The LUNA RING is simply
raising the proverbial bar on the current state of innovation
satellite increases. These wouldnt be
simple Sputniks, either, but rather floating
power stations a kilometer or so in diameterfar
larger and more complex than any communications satellites
in space today.
The ongoing maintenance costs of the network would thus be
enormous. Mankins testified that the cost to build the system
would be more than $250 billion in present-day dollars. The pro-
gram concluded in 1979, leaving many questions unanswered.
Then, between 1980 and 1981, the U.S. energy crisis ended, and
interest in space-based solar power hit a wall.
Fifteen years later, NASA initiated a three-year Fresh Look
Study. A brief Exploratory Research and Technology Program
followed. The agency found that many of the technical obstacles
it first faced decades ago no longer seemed so insurmountable.
Photovoltaic arrays in the 1970s could convert into power roughly
10% of the solar energy that struck them. By 1995, they were far
more efficient and much lighter. New ideas were on the table,
such as satellites that used inflatable trusses rather than metal
to decrease object weight.
Mankins himself ditched the dispersed satellite network
scheme and came up with a new idea for designing, building,
and launching satellites. In his 1995 plan, many thousands of
smaller, identical solar-gathering modules come together to form
a much larger whole, the same way that thousands of similar ants
come together to form colonies and millions of quite similar Web
sites and Web servers form the Interneta super-organism,
Mankins calls it. The logistics of building and launching a type A
mini-satellite 9,000 times (then type B, then type C) is less daunt-
ing than figuring out how to launch a few extremely complex,
independently functioning machines. Mankins calls this realiza-
tion his eureka moment. It led me for the first time to believe
that space-based solar power was technically possible, he says.
Despite this encouraging progress, the question remained:
How do you conduct tens of thousands of satellite launches, keep
the devices working together collecting and transmitting energy
safely, and keep the maintenance costs under control?
According to Yoshida, this is the wrong series of questions.
My very optimistic forecast is 25 years,Yoshida told me, when I visited the company
headquarters in Tokyo last November.
raising the bar to the Moon.
Its very challenging, a good
project for a company like Shimizu. So
this is a type of campaign for us, says Yoshida.
A Feat of FuturismTo the jaded technology watcher, the LUNA RING may read not somuch bold as old-fashioned. In the projects size and scope, the
faith it expresses in large-scale and long-term, government-funded
initiatives, it harkens back to the 1970s, a decade synonymous with
many things, not least of which was U.S. space program euphoria.
It was during the 1970s that the U.S. Department of Energy and
NASA first conducted a series of studies on the feasibility of sending
energy to Earth from satellites.
These studies, called the Satellite Power System Concept Devel-
opment and Evaluation Program, were nothing less than an exercise
in super-futurism, with a group of scientists from around the world
writing back and forth in reports, letters, and journal articles, trying
to design something in the distant future using tools and technolo-
gies that did not exist in the present.
The proceedings of the program note more than a few major
obstacles to collecting and transmitting power in space. The space
infrastructure requirements were projected to be significant, John
C. Mankins, the manager of the
Advanced Concepts Studies Office
of Space Flight, told Congress in
1979, in what might be considered
something of an understatement.
The program explored a vari-
ety of concepts, design plans, andscenarios. One proposal emerged
as a leader: a network of dozens of
satellites working together to catch solar energy and beam it to
Earth, rather than a single satellite. But even with a network, the
objects and their solar arrays would need to be enormous to do the
job: large enough to collect and transmit 5 gigawatts of power each,
according to Mankinss testimony. (They would be transmitting
power for use in the United States exclusively.) Sending objects
into orbit becomes more costly and complicated as the size of the
The Moon-Based Power StationA solar collection satellite launched from Earth, even using
most advanced materials available in 2011, would weigh cl
to 10,000 tons, says Yoshida. This number, he later explaine
an e-mail, is his estimation of the weight of a 1-million-kilow
power plant in geosynchronous orbit.
So heavy and hard to control, you will need so many roc
launch pads. Too much money. So we chose the Moon as a pow
station, he says. We already have a natural satellite, one w
minerals and resources. And it already receives sunlight acr
its surface area.
The Moons face receives 13,000 trillion watts (terawatts
solar power continuously. This is 650 times the amount of pow
the entire human population would need to continue to gr
economically, according to space power expert David Crisw
Solar collection on the lunar surface would be 10 times more
ficient than it is on Earth, where our ozone and rich atmosph
make solar collection less efficient.
Heres how the LUNA ING would work. Robotic staff. The lunar base would require some hum
personnel, but the bulk of the work on the Moon would
performed by robots that were remotely controlled. Jap
has been conducting experiments with robotic giant arm
space since the 1997 launch of the ETS (Experimental T
Satellite) No. 7. I dont think [it will be] a big problem to cont
the robots on the Moon, Yoshida says.
Panels. Sending enough photovoltaic arrays to encircle
lunar equator would require a lot of costly launches a
burn up a lot of rocket fuel. The LUNA RING plan calls for t
robotic construction of those panels on the Moon direc
from lunar soil. This increases the overall efficiency a
energy savings of the program compared with others. It a
bumps up the complexity level of the proposal considerab
Photovoltaic panels are constructed from silicon, which ma
up 23% of the lunar surface. The Moon also hosts aluminum a
aluminum oxide, which factor into many solar cell designs. Th
retically, we have enough materials on the lunar surface to bu
solar panels, Yoshida says. But finding significant deposits
these minerals is a lot harder on the Moon than on Earth, wh
the formation and movement of oceans, rivers, lakes, and strea
created accessible mineral deposits. Theres no concentration
these minerals, says Yoshida, so all these resources are spr
over the lunar surface.
Once constructed, those panels would produce a lot of pow
A 4 400 km portion of the lunar solar belt would produce pow
equal to the energy consumption of Japan, says Yoshida. A 3
400 km portion would equal the energy consumption of Ind
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Sixty by 400 km would power the United States, and a 400 400
km square would collect enough energy to satisfy the power
needs of the entire human population, by Yoshidas calculations.
Laser transmission. Like those solar-based power plans from
the 1970s, the LUNA RING would beam energy to Earth in one
of two ways, using either a microwave or a laser.
Microwave transmission experiments have been ongoing since
the 1960s and space laser st udies since the 1980s. In that time,
science agencies have demonstrated power transmission in
space, between orbiting objects and the Earth and between
planes and the ground. These,
h o w e v e r , w e r e l o w - l e v e l
power exchanges. The most
famous of these took place in
Goldstone, California, on June
5, 1975; the NASA Jet Propul-
sion Laboratory successfully
transmitted 34 kilowatts of
power over a distance of 1.5 kilometers. A space-based power
station would have to transfer a lot more power a lot farther.
More tests will be conducted around the world between now and
2015, including in the Tokai region of Japan where researchers
are working with a 2 kilowatt infrared laser. This isnt a lot of
power, eithernot enough to run a car, but sufficient to boil water
in a matter of seconds.
Over the MoonReaction to the LUNA RING among space experts whom THE
FUTURIST contacted was optimism tempered by skepticism.
Criswell is a long-time advocate for using the Moon as a power
station. Although hes a cheerleader, he acknowledges that much
more research needs to be done before a Moon-based power plan
can attract serious consideration. Much of that research would
have to take place aboard the International Space Station, which,
according to Criswell, presents something of a problem. The
fully staffed International Space Station will be hard pressed to
do its few authorized experiments in low-Earth orbit and keep
the station operating. It doesnt have the capability to support
the logistics for a major lunar infrastructure project or the staff
to monitor lunar surface operations, he said. However, the sta-
tion does provide the operational experience for building other
specialized facilities in orbit about the Earth and Moon and on
the Moon for power production.
Power from the Moon would have to travel 10 times farther to
get to Earth than would the same juice collected from a satellite.
Mankins believes that a giant wireless transmitter floating in
space would need to play a part in sending microwave or laser
power from point A to point B. Robots building solar arrays out
of lunar dirt? Maybe one day, Mankins says, but he insists that,
when space-based solar power comes to light, it will have to use
hardware built on Earth, at least initially.
David Criswell writes, From time to time, Shimizu develops
a very visionary future large-scale engineering concept []
their LUNA ING concept is only the latest of these.
I believe that the first [space-based power] pilot plant could
(with funding) be on orbit within 1015 years; waiting for a lunar
base to be established first would delay the availability of space
solar power by decades, he wrote in an e-mail. From time to
time, Shimizu develops a very visionary future large-scale engi-
neering concept that they then articulate to a broad audience.
Their LUNA RING concept is only the latest of these.
John Hickman, a member of the board of advisors of the
MarsDrive project and author of Reopening the Space Frontier
(Common Ground Publishing, 2010), is known as a space-policy
realist. Hes argued that the problem with most super-large space
projects is that they require too much from potential investors:
too much up-front capital, too much patience, and too much faith.
If attracting capital for projects using proven technologies
like communications satellites remains difficult, imagine the
difficulty of attracting sufficient capital to construct a mining
facility on the Moon or terraforming Mars or Venus, he wrote
in his 1999 essay, The Political Economy of Very Large Space
Projects, a critical analysis of why mega-scale space schemes
almost never get off the ground.
The United States is another potential investor, if not for the
LUNA RING, then for some competing space-based solar power
program, perhaps of the sort that Mankins has suggested. The
Obama administration has made repeated statements in favor
of alternative-energy research initiatives and big public works.
But the administration is also facing record deficits, a Congress
fighting to repeal its signature health-care program, a retirement
wave of historic proportions, and reelection in two years. Pitching
a speculative and fantastically expensive lunar energy project
to the American people under s uch conditions would be a loser.
An energy plan beyond the realm of cost considerations? Its an
optimistic idea, even more so than sending robots to the Moon to
build solar panels. In broaching it, Yoshida is also acknowledging
that the greatest impediment to space-based power isnt rocketsor robots or physics; its a dearth of public resources. A project of
such size and scope would require the willingness of hundreds
of millions of souls to reembrace government-funded space
programs. It would require sacrifice in the form of higher taxes,
cuts in other areas, or both. At present, this seems beyond the
capacity of the developed world.
About the AuthorPatrickTuckeristhesenioreditoroTHEFUTURISTmagazineand
thedirectorocommunicationsortheWorldFutureSociety.
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BOO EVIEWSNEWANDNOTEWORTHY
Surprising Facts Aboutthe BrainBrainSense:TheScienceotheSensesand
HowWeProcesstheWorldAroundUsby
FaithHickmanBrynie.AMACOM.2009.274
pages.$24.
The brain is much more dynamic than
scientists used to think, according to
science and health writer Faith Hickman
Brynie in Brain Sense. She takes readers
on a tour of how the brain and the senses
interact, sharing discoveries that she says
have dramatic implications for brain re-search and medical practice. Examples:
Monkeys using their own brain waves
to control robotic arms.
Patients blinded by strokes regain
some of their vision by retraining
their eyes with computer-assisted
visual exercises.
New physical-therapy regimens that
relieve amputees of phantom-limb
pain (pains in the empty spaces where
those parts used to be).
Brynie points to newly discovered
ways that the brain constantly reshapes
its own structure and replacing circuits
or even memories that had been lost
or damaged. She also describes recent
observations about how the brain per-
ceives reality: Our brains have minds of
their own, she says. In other words, no
two people will taste, smell, or feel in the
same way.
Brynies Brain Sense is a fascinating
look at what it means to be human and
conscious. It is also an exciting preview
of treatments that doctors might one
day achieve.
Workplaces forChanging TimesChangeDesign:Conversationsabout
ArchitectureastheUltimateBusinessTool
byNBBJandBruceMau.Greenway.2009.
250pages.$59.95.
A well-designed building encourages
creativity and cooperation within, ac-
cording to architectural firm NBBJ and
design company Bruce Mau. Their jointly
authored and richly illustrated book
Change Design showcases new buildings
that offer new ways of working. Change
Design presents real-life stories of 14 or-
ganizations that enhanced productivity,
employee satisfaction, energy eff iciency,
or all three by changing the layout of their
office buildings.
Case studies include the Banner Health
hospital complex, designed to accommo-
date systematic growth over the next 20
years; Boeing, which brought manufac-
turers and designers two groups that
had always worked separately together
into one facility, thereby resolving prob-
lems more quickly and cutting production
time in half; and developer City Develop-
ments Limited, which custom-builds
high-rises with ventilation, shading,
and rainwater-sequestration features
to maximize sustainability and comfort.
Accompanying these stories are es-says on the nature of design, the future
of workplaces, the relationship between
building design and personal values, and
hope for resolving tensions between ex-
ecutives and designers. The volume also
includes descriptions of change-design
activities that you can organize in your
own workplace.
Change Design is a delightful show-
and-tell of architectural improvements
and their benefits. Artists, business lead-
ers, and professionals of all kinds may
find it informative and inspirational.
What the Chesapeake BayCan Teach ConservationistsFightortheBay:WhyaDarkGreen
EnvironmentalAwakeningisNeededtoSave
theChesapeakeBaybyHowardR.Ernst.
Rowman&Littleeld.2009.144pages.
Paperback.$19.95.
Pollution has reduced more than 400
water ecosystems around the world to
dead zones, notes U.S. Naval Academy
political-science professor Howard Ernst
in Fight for the Bay. For conservationiststrying to save these ecosystems, the east-
ern United States Chesapeake Bay serves
as a cautionary tale.
Since the early 1980s, Ernst explains, a
publicly funded Chesapeake Bay Program
has coordinated bay-restoration efforts
with the governments of neighboring
states Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania,
and Virginia. The program, however, lacks
any lawmaking power. It only organizes
public education campaigns, distributes
grants to citizen cleanup projects, and
sets nonbinding guidelines for state
officials. This voluntary approach
light-green conservation, as Ernst calls
it failed miserably. Fauna and animal life
across the bay remain in jeopardy, and its
fishing industries have collapsed.
There is no substitute for political
action and litigation, Ernst concludes.
However, he sees the Chesapeake Bay
Programs light-green approach being
repeated in estuaries around North
America and beyond. He hopes that
conservationists will change course
and accept confrontation as necessary
for reform.
Ernsts Fight for the Bay is an incisive
look at an important ecosystem and what
communities everywhere can learn from
it. Researchers, environmentalists, and
political activists of all kinds may find it
an enlightening read.
Alarmingly Practical AdviceFor DoomsdayHowtoSurvivetheEndotheWorldAs
KnowIt:Tactics,Techniques,andTechno
giesorUncertainTimesbyJamesWesle
Rawles.Plume.2009.153pages.
Paperback.$17.
Civilization is still standing no
but that does not mean it always w
cautions survival expert James Wes
Rawles in How to Survive the End of
World As We Know It.
Wed better know what to do in
event of a deadly viral pandemic, ma
asteroid strike, unprecedented hyp
inflationary (or deflationary) econo
depression, third World War, or any ot
global disaster, Rawles argues.
He spells out all the hazards that
might face in a post-disaster society: lo
ing, armed violence, food shortages,
Then he lays out steps we can take no
such as taking survival-training cour
designing shelters, and stocking th
with necessary supplies. He even off
a chapter on disaster-proof financial
curity: savvy investments to make n
earning income in the midst of a ma
recession, and bartering in the wak
a true disaster.
If all of these musings sound alarm
he explains, consider that the world to
is increasingly dangerous and frau
with uncertainty worldwide terro
movements since the early 1990s a
the 2008 meltdown of markets across
globe are proof.
enlargement from degenerating i
urban sprawl. If successful, they will
sign mixed-use neighborhoods that tr
all residents with equity. They will aharmonize urban and rural areas, and
in accordance with their regions natu
resource and water supplies.
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In 1955, Walt Disney Imagineersachieved virtual reality withDisneyland. Six Imagineeringprinciples explain how they did it.
By Gary Dehrer
1. Area Development.In reviewing Walt Disneys plan to have everyone enter Disneyland at Town Square, amu
park experts questioned why there was only one entrance. They also questioned the ex
Town Square, especially since it was not going to produce any revenue. Disney responded
entry space was designed to create an essential rst impression and special mood or h
All guests had to enter the Park the s ame way to share an identical illusion. Even the Ma
transportation, which included a re wagon and horse-drawn trolleys, was not intended
any money but to help add to the overall sensory experience. Town Square was to serv
gateway to Disneylands virtual reality.
magineers in Searchof the Future
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Blue Sky.sneyland was the rst project or Walt Disney Imagineering (WDI), which was created on December
1952, as part o WED (Walter Elias Disney) Enterprises. Walt Disney, considered to be the oremost
agineer o modern times, had built a major animation and lm studio by the early 1950s. WED was to
dress all Disney activities outside the lm studio and this would come to include Disney parks, resorts,
ecial attractions at Worlds Fairs, cruise ships, and other diverse entertainment activities. Disneyland
fered the Imagineers an opportunity to demonstrate that anything is possible.
In explaining the secret o his success, Walt Disney had one word or it: curiosity. Theres really no
cret about our approach, he said. We keep moving orwardopening up new doors and doing new
ngsbecause were curious. And curiosity keeps leading us down new paths. Were always exploring
d experimenting. And curiosity was orever wrapped in endless Blue Sky possibilities that begged
become realities.
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4. Dark ide.Dark rides ormed the backbone o Fantasylands entertainment experience, as special efects could
be used to urther create illusion and magic. In 1965, John Hench, one o Disneys rst and longtime
Imagineers, rendered a concept sketch that would evolve into Space Mountain, housing a dark-ride
roller coaster. The Space Mountain ride was nally achieved in 1975 as Tomorrowland continued to
be reworked. Hench said, The ride is above all an experience o speed, enhanced by the controlled
lighting and projected moving images. But it evokes such ideas as the mystery o outer space, the
excitement o setting out on a journey, and the thrill o the unknown.
inetics.an inspection tour o Disneyland when it was under construction, Walt Disney spent several hours
ng around in a Jeep accompanied by several people, including Joe Fowler, his construction boss.
parting rom Town Square, Disney and his small party drove over to Sleeping Beautys unnished
stle, where he described all o the attractions and how everything would look in ull color. He was
scribing the kinetics o Fantasyland and how the carousel horses would be leaping. Disney realized
t transerring stories rom lm to real-lie three dimensionality would be challenging but knew
guests could use their imaginations in the Park just as they did in movie theaters. Thus, the Park
perience would become believable, allowing guests to trust and enjoy the attractions and illusions.
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Elevation.agineering ushered in the concept o three-
mensional storytelling. Imagineers detailed
e images and settings they elt important to
ling stories through mood and sensation.
Even Main Street, U.S.A., had a story to tell.
hn Hench explains, Mood is created mainly
the sensation o careully orchestrated and
ensied stimuli, o color, sound, orm, and
ovement. Disneylands Main Street, U.S.A.,
hich represents the main shopping street in
idealized American turn-o-the-century small
wn, is a good example o mood created by
nsation that results in enhanced reality.
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Show.ucial to the virtual-reality creation was its
st o characters. To urther create his Dis-
yland illusion, Walt Disney instituted his
sneyland University, which would train Park
rsonnel to not just do their jobs, but to per-
rm as though they were onstage. Employees
ere expected to be happy and cheerul, ur-
er creating the eeling o an optimistic world.
ey would ollow special protocols and a dress
de to help guests eel comortable about par-
ipating in the show. Adding to this inclusive
ect were Mickey and Minnie Mouse, along
th other Disney cartoon characters, who
ould join guests in the Park. These costumed
alk-around characters were meant to mingle
th guests, posing or pictures but remaining
ent. The physical impact o the walk-around
aracters enhanced the show and produced a
nvincing and compelling antasy environment
r adults and children alike.
THE FUTURIST | Ma rch-April 2011 | www.wfs.org
AccordingtodataromtheCensusBureau,marr
rateshavebeeninalong-termdecline,withm
youngadultssayingIdonttotyingtheknot.For
rsttimeinoveracentury,thenumberosingleadu
hassurpassedthenumberomarriedcouples.
MoreAmericansarechoosingtoplaythewaitingga
whenitcomestosayingIdo.Currently,men,onav
age,arewaitinguntil28andwomenuntil26beo
walkingdowntheaisle.
Manyhavebeen
quicktondthe
causeothese
changes,citingthe
slumpingeconomy,a
growingincomegap,
highdivorcerates
andtherisingtrend
towardscohabitationasactorsthatmight
helpexplainthedelay
tomarryaswellas
themarriagegap.
Theactualreason
orthetendencyto
eitherdelaymarriage
ornevermarryat
allmaybemuch
morecomplicated.
Whateverthereason,
thesetrendsarent
likelytoreverse
anytimesoon.
First comes love, but what comes next?
Percentageoallpersonsag15orolderwhoweremarried
1960 1970 1980 1990 2 000 2008 20
68% 59% 56%61% 52% 47
*projectedda
64%
Medianageatrstmarriag
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 202
20 21 24 25 26 222
*projected
23 23 25 26 27 28 2
Word Watch: Pre-vivorNew words often offer clues to new
trends. The term pre-vivormeaning an
individual who takes extreme preventive
measures to ensure survivalsuggests a
new, more extreme level of proactivism.
As used by Baylor Medical Center breast
surgeon Valerie Gorman, the term refers
to women at risk of developing breast
cancer who opt for preemptive bilateral
mastectomies, or those who have devel-
oped cancer in one breast choosing to
remove the remaining healthy breast.
Comment: Becoming a pre-vivor may
seem extreme, but as change accelerates
and complexity grows in all areas of life,
risk assessment is becoming more and
more imperative. The sooner that a risk is
identified and acted upon, the more likely
survival becomes.
Source:BaylorHealthCareSystem,Market-
ingandPublicRelations,2001BryanStreet,
Suite750,Dallas,Texas75201.Website
www.baylorhealth.com
Liquid-Wood ToysA bioplastic made of renewable liquid
wood rather than petrochemicals could
be an ideal component for toys. The mate-
rial, known as Arbofoam, was developed
at the Fraunhofer Institute for Chemical
Technology ICT in Germany. Though bio-
plastics using cellulose from wood have
been used in other products, they have
been unsuitable for toys because of ad-
ditives such as sulfur. Arboforms sulfurcontent was reduced by 90%; the next
challenge was to find suitable additives
that keep the bioplastics from dissolving
in watera big problem since children
tend to suck on their toys or leave them
out in the rain.
Source:FraunhoerInstituteorChemical
Technology,Joseph-von-Fraunhoer-Strasse
7,76327Pnztal,Berghausen,Germany.
Websitewww.ict.raunhoer.de
FOECASTSTRENDSINBRIEF
Toward a More Multilingual Mi litaryThe U.S. military needs to improve its foreign-language and cultural skills to oper
more effectively, according to Congressman Vic Snyder (Democrat-Arizona), chairm
of the House Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee of the House Armed Servi
Committee. In todays and tomorrows national security environment, the demand
these skill sets may be even greater, given the range of missions our military person
can be called on to perform, he says. Language and cultural skills can save lives a
even prevent conflict. The Subcommittees report calls for increased support for forei
language study in the U.S. educational system, though it did not make clear how scho
are to predict where future military interests may be.
Source:U.S.HouseoRepresentatives,HouseArmedServicesCommittee,2120RayburnHo
OfceBuilding,Washington,D.C.20515.Websitehttp://armedservices.house.gov
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