Concept Testing

Chapter 8EIN 6392, Summer 2012

Product Design for Manufacturability and Automation

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Product Design and DevelopmentKarl T. Ulrich and Steven D. Eppinger4th edition, Irwin McGraw-Hill, 2008Chapter Table of Contents

1. Introduction2. Development Processes and Organizations3. Product Planning4. Identifying Customer Needs5. Product Specifications6. Concept Generation7. Concept Selection8. Concept Testing9. Product Architecture10. Industrial Design11. Design for Manufacturing12. Prototyping13. Product Development Economics 14. Managing Projects

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PlanningPlanning

Product Development Process

ConceptDevelopment

ConceptDevelopment

System-LevelDesign

System-LevelDesign

DetailDesign

DetailDesign

Testing andRefinement

Testing andRefinement

ProductionRamp-Up

ProductionRamp-Up

QualitativeConceptTesting

QuantitativeConceptTesting

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Concept Development Process

Perform Economic Analysis

Benchmark Competitive Products

Build and Test Models and Prototypes

IdentifyCustomer

Needs

EstablishTarget

Specifications

GenerateProduct

Concepts

SelectProduct

Concept(s)

Set Final

Specifications

PlanDownstreamDevelopment

MissionStatement Test

ProductConcept(s)

DevelopmentPlan

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Outline Essence of concept testing Process for product concepts

testing

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Sources of Forecast Error Word-of-Mouth Effects Quality of Concept Description Pricing Level of Promotion Competition

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Nature of concept testing

Further narrow the set of concepts under consideration, based data gathered from potential

customers in the target markets, rather than the judgments made by the development team

Specific Objectives Select one from multiple concepts, Gather information on how to improve a

concept, and Estimate the sales potential of the product

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Input and output Input to the potential customer

Prototype Output from the potential

customer Likelihood for the potential customer

to buy the product Estimate of how many units of the

product the company is likely to sell

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Issues to discuss Why do respondents typically overestimate

purchase intent? Might they ever underestimate intent?

How to use price in surveys? Or how much would the customer be willing to

pay? How much does the way (the concept is

communicated) matter? When shouldn’t a prototype model be shown?

How do you increase sales? How does early (qualitative) concept testing

differ from later (quantitative) testing?

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Purposes for Concept Testing

Go/no-go decisions What market to be in? Selecting among alternative concepts Confirming concept selection decision Benchmarking Soliciting improvement ideas Forecasting demand Ready to launch?

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Concept testing process1. Define the purpose of the concept

testing2. Choose a survey population and sample

size3. Choose a survey format4. Communicate the concept5. Measure customer response6. Interpret the results7. Reflect on the results and the process

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Define the purpose (step 1) Which of the alternative concepts

should be pursued How can the concept be improved

to better meet customer needs Approximately how much units are

likely to be sold Should the development be

continued

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Choose a survey population and sample size (step 2)1. Sample size varies from a few to thousands2. Factors affecting the sample size

1. The stage of product development2. Cost to conduct survey3. Nature and intent of the survey4. Budget (amount) of the development project5. How possible to collect the intended information.

3. Possible to structure multiple surveys with different objectives at different stages.

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Choose a survey format (step 3)

Formats Face to face interaction Telephone Postal mail Electronic mail Internet (a test site on the internet)

Each has its pros and cons Each has its bias.

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Communicate the concept (step 4)

Communication means Verbal description Sketch Photos and renderings Storyboard (a series of images shown a temporal

sequence of actions involving the products) Video (allowing more dynamic than the story board) Simulation Interactive multimedia (video and simulation) Physical appearance model (looks-like) Working prototypes (works-like)

Survey formats vs. means, page 154

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Measure customer response (step 5)

Measurement Mere their preferences among alternative concepts Understand why and how they respond to the product

concepts Attempt to measure purchase intent (the likelihood of

buying) But avoid aggressively promoting the product concepts The solution space? Alternative function diagrams? Alternative ways to decompose the problem? Additional external resources? All ideas generated and integrated?

Survey form, page 156.

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Interpret the results (Step 6) Q = N x A x P

Where P = Cd x Fd + Cp x Fp Q = the quantity of the expected sales N = the number of potential customers expected to buy A = the fraction of these potential customers aware of the

product and the product is available P = the the probability that the product is purchased if the

customer is aware of it and it is available. Fd = the the fraction of survey respondents indicating that

they would definitely purchase Cd = the percentage that those in Fd will actually buy (.1-.5) Cp = the percentage that those in Fp will actually buy (0-.25)

Be aware that sales also depends on Words of month Fidelity of the concept description Pricing Level of promotion

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Market sizes Population and demographic data Sales volume of various products

Airplanes Machine tools Cars Hand tools Printers Ball pens Razor blades

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Concept Testing Example: emPower Electric Scooter

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Scooter Example Purpose of concept test:

What market to be in? Sample population:

College students who live 1-3 miles from campus

Factory transportation Survey format:

Face-to-face interviews

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Communicating the Concept Verbal description Sketch Photograph or rendering Storyboard Video Simulation Interactive multimedia Physical appearance model Working prototype

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Verbal Description The product is a lightweight electric scooter that

can be easily folded and taken with you inside a building or on public transportation.

The scooter weighs about 25 pounds. It travels at speeds of up to 15 miles per hour and can go about 12 miles on a single charge.

The scooter can be recharged in about two hours from a standard electric outlet.

The scooter is easy to ride and has simple controls — just an accelerator button and a brake.

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Sketch

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Rendering

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Storyboard

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3D Solid CAD Model

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Appearance Model

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Working Prototype

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Beta Prototype

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Video Animation, Interactive MultimediaLive Demonstration

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Survey Format PART 1, Qualification

How far do you live from campus? <If not 1-3 miles, thank the customer and end

interview.> How do you currently get to campus from

home? How do you currently get around campus?

PART 2, Product Description <Present the concept description.>

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Survey Format PART 3, Purchase Intent

If the product were priced according to your expectations, how likely would you be to purchase the scooter within the next year?

I would definitely not

purchase the scooter.

I might or might not purchase the scooter.

I would definitely purchase the scooter.

I would probably not

purchasethe scooter.

I would probably purchase the scooter.

“top box”“second box”

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Survey Format

PART 4, Comments What would you expect the price of the

scooter to be? What concerns do you have about the

product concept? Can you make any suggestions for

improving the product concept? Thank you.

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Interpreting the Results:Forecasting Sales

Q = N x A x P Q = sales (annual) N = number of (annual) purchases A = awareness x availability (fractions) P = probability of purchase (surveyed)

= Cdef x Fdef + Cprob x Fprob

“second box”“top box”

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Forecasting Example:College Student Market N = off-campus grad students (200,000) A = 0.2 (realistic) to 0.8 (every bike

shop) P = 0.4 x top-box + 0.2 x second-box Q = Price point $795

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Forecasting Example: Factory Transport Market N = current bicycle and scooter sales to

factories (150,000) A = 0.25 (single distributor’s share) P = 0.4 x top-box + 0.2 x second-box Q = 150,000 x 0.25 x [0.4 x 0.3 + 0.2 x

0.2] = 6000 units/yr Price point $1500

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emPower’s Market Decision: Factory Transportation

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Production Product