Computing Capability

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

$20M/Year $20M/Year InvestmentInvestment

•Receives Over 116 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)

Hurricane MichelleOctober 29 - November 5, 2001

Hurricane Claudette5-Day Hurricane Forecast

Radar 10:45 AMJuly 15, 2003

Error (nm) 12 h 24 h 36 h 48 h 72 h 96 h 120 h

OFCL 35 57 84 112 128 135 147

GFDL 32 56 88 121 163 233 273

GFS 38 66 93 121 193 218 301

# of cases 25 24 22 19 14 8 8

Hurricane Isabel

Thursday, 9/18/0312 PM EDT5-day forecast

3-day forecast

NHC Yearly-averaged Atlantic Track Forecast Errors

TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Period (hours)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Err

or

(nau

tica

l mile

s)

1964-1973

1984-1993

1974-1983

1994-2002

Isabel

2003