computers of 2020 and 2030

COMPUTERS OF 2020 AND 2030

Tat IwamotoJanuary 2013

Saturday, January 19, 13

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

•Most popular computer of 2012, iPhone 5•No longer PC. Desktop and laptops are irrelevant.


IPHONE 5 SYSTEM

4Gb LPDDR2

4Gb LPDDR2

Modem

128Gbit NAND

Wifi/BT

Misc Peripherals

CPU

GPU

x21.3GHz

x3325MHz


DIE SIZE

• A6 (32nm) 100mm^2

• LPDDR2 (20nm) 100mm^2 x2

• Flash (20nm) 200mm^2

• = 400mm^2

• Just very rough estimate


MOORE’S LAW

• 2013 = 400mm^2

•Density increase

• 2020 = 16x

• 2030 = 1000x1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Density converted to 2013 mm^2


SCALE THE SAME CONFIGURATION

• 2020

• 32 core ARM CPU

• 48 core GPU

• 16GB DRAM

• 256GB Flash

• 2030

• 2000 core ARM CPU

• 3000 core GPU

• 1TB DRAM

• 16TB Flash


LIMITERS (1)

• IO Speed

•Do not scale with density

• Assume scale with linear length

• 1.4x for 2x density

• 10Gbit/s limit for PCB


MEMORY IO BANDWIDTH

4Gb LPDDR2

4Gb LPDDR2

128Gbit NAND

1Gbit/s x64 bit=8GB/s

40Mbit/s x4 bit=20MB/s

CPU

GPU

x21.3GHz

x3325MHz


CPU

GPU

x32

x48

MEMORY IO BANDWIDTH 2020

64GB DRAM

256GB Flash



1Gbit/s x16 > 10Gbit/sMore pins needed to scale


MEMORY IO BANDWIDTH 2030

1TB DRAM

16TB Flash

10Gbit/s x800 bit=8TB/s


800 pins is impossible

20Mbit/s x1000 >10Gbit/sMore pins needed to scale

CPU

GPU

x2000

x3000


LIMITERS (2)

• Process difference

• Logic

•DRAM

• Flash

• Use different process


LIMITERS (3)

• Power

•Need to keep battery time

• Frequency and power roughly scales with linear length

• 2x Density = 1.4x Speed, 0.7x Power

•Need to lower activity to keep heat at same level


LIMITERS (4)

• Chips can’t get smaller

• Pad limit

• Package pin limit


INTEGRATE DRAM DIES

• DRAM pins run out first

• Memory is cooler than logic

• Keep flash off chip

• 2x transistors = 1.4x logic + 0.7x additional area

• Use additional area for memory

• DRAM -> SRAM

• DRAM : SRAM 6:1 bit density


2020 RAM ON-CHIP

• 16x Density

•Die -> 7mm^2

• x 4 for same power= 28mm^2

• 72mm^2 for memory

• 1GB DRAM -> 12mm^2

•DRAM vs Logic density gap 2:1

•DRAM:SRAM = 1:6

• 1GB SRAM = 144mm^2

• 72mm^2 = 512MB SRAM


CPU

GPU

x8

x12

2020 SOC256GB Flash


No external DRAMNo pinsNo IO power

512MBSRAM

CPU 1.3 x 4 = 5.2GHzGPU 325 x 4 = 1.3GHzEnough memory bandwidth


2030 ONE CHIP• 1000x Density

•Die -> 0.1mm^2

• x 32 for same power= 3mm^2

• 97mm^2 for memory

• Logic only 3%

•Not dominant area

• 1GB DRAM -> 0.2mm^2

• 16GB Flash -> 0.2mm^2

• 1 GB SRAM = 2.4mm^2

• 97mm^2 = 40GB

• Build chip on Flash process

• SRAM + Flash

•Maybe lower frequencySaturday, January 19, 13

CPU

GPU

x64

x96

2030 SOC

No external DRAM/FlashNo pinsNo IO power40GB

SRAMor Flash CPU 1.3 x 32 = 40GHz

GPU 325 x 32 = 10GHzConsider SRAM / Flash mix


TWEAKS

• Use better CPU/GPU

• Less cores / more memory

• Smaller overall die?


MORE OPTIONS

• Integrate other IO peripherals

• Should be enough room for that, too

•OK as long as pin count is low

• Special IO may require lower density


OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

•Mixed process technology: logic + DRAM + Flash

• Package technology: more pins, more interconnect speed

• Interconnect technology: 10Gbit/s+


computers of 2020 and 2030

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