Don’t tell me the answer;just explain the question!

Yogi Berra

Compression ThinkingRobert W. “Doc” HallLERC, Cardiff, Wales

July 7, 2011

Where is this talk going?

2040Compression

Challenge

Why? What’s Compression?

How to Apply It?Vigorous Learning

Introduction to Compression Thinking

500 years of high-waste expansion are coming to a turning point “soon.”

CompressionThe World is finiteBut we keep expanding

N

Compression Thinking

If we no longer expand,

not only domost of our rules change,

our thinking aboutrules changes.

Turn the world upside down!

N

Think of Earthas a Spaceship.

Can only use what you have.

FreshWater

EnergyFood Supply

Climate Change Ozone Hole

Biodiversity

Landfills

Super Size Me

OutsourcingNIMBYs

Endocrine Disrupters

Terrorism,Insurgencies

Riots, Protests

SoilErosion

OceanPollution

FinancialCollapses

HealthCare

Confused?

FreshWater

EnergyFood Supply

Climate Change Ozone Hole

Biodiversity

Landfills

Super Size Me

OutsourcingNIMBYs

Endocrine Disrupters

Terrorism,Insurgencies

Riots, Protests

SoilErosion

OceanPollution

FinancialCollapses

HealthCare

Precarious Environment

Globalization Pushback

Finite Resources

Excessive Consumption

SpindletopLucas Gusher

Beaumont, TexasJanuary 10, 1901

Return on Energy:

> 100/1

Finite Resources

Canadian Tar SandsReturn on Energy? 3/1? 2/1?

Finite Resources

Time

-5000 BCE Now +5000 BCE

No condition is “normal.”

Easy-to-get stuff isdisappearing quickly

Naturere-uses lowconcentrationstuff in place.

Return On EnergyStop confusing ourselves by

monetized multipliers

“Spindletops” (100:1)

Tar Sands

50 gallons of soda per capita per year126 lbs of petroleum fuel used for

transportation each week4.4 lbs of solid waste each day

Excessive Consumption

Excessive Consumption

Global ChallengeBy 2040 globally develop a quality of life

somewhat like industrial societies today,

but using less than half the virgin raw

material and less than half the energy as

in the year 2000, and with no known toxic

releases.

Why this? Diminishes the size of all other problems.

2000 2010 2020 2030 204075 91 80 50 2025 29 30 30 30

100 120 110 80 50

YearIndustrial Society Index

Developing Society Index

World Total Index

Operational Objective of CompressionGlobal Time Line

Base Point Objective

Data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010, p. 40, and other sources.

Based on primary (traded) energy.

Industrial Societies: Energy intensive, about 1.5 billion people.

Developing Societies: Low energy intensity, about 5 billion people.

SustainabilityTriple Bottom Line

PlanetProfit

People

PeopleProfit Planet

Compression ThinkingTriple Bottom Line

?

PeoplePlanet Profit

Compression ThinkingTriple Bottom Line

Let profit be a design specification for thetransactional part ofthe business model.

Long-term quality outcomes from minimal resource use.

Compression ThinkingContrasting Value Systems of Business Models

Family Farm Model Jackpot Model Entitlement Model

Leave it better than you found it.

Get rich quick; spin the wheel again.

Defend our rightsto “wealth” to death.

Compression Thinking Tools(aids and guides to thinking)

Imagination using tools lets us create more effective outcomes.

Lean and quality tools

Deming Circle (scientific) logic

Re-Use, Re-Purpose, Re-Furbish, Re-Man, Recycle

Environmental tools

“Efficiency” by Compression Thinking

Effective long-term outcomes, using

minimum life-cycle resources.

Or the minimum total energy way toexecute a work process.

Full Life CycleConversionProcesses

Waste HeatEmissions

Scrap

Compression Thinking Tool Mass Energy Balance

Waste Heat

Waste Mass

Compression Thinking Tool Life Cycle Analysis

How can you base yourbusiness model aroundthis?

Compression Thinking

$ in

$ million

Core MissionRelated to

Spaceship Earth

Relate to “the Big Picture”The observer is not the center of theuniverse she sees….

Question all assumptions….

N

Get out of this box$ out

Compression Thinking

$ in $ out

$ million

Seek physical realitypresent and future….

Accumulative effects?

Causal connections?

What do wereally do?...

What effectswill it have?…

Decisions are many stages of abstraction from reality.

Base operations on life cycles

$ in $ out

$ million

Add very little to the loops….

Get great long-term outcomes.

Stop reductionistthinking“Optimizing” separate parts, assuming that:

Whole = Σ(Parts)

Reduce “Imaginary Complexity”(from our own ignorance, rigid systems, & conflict)

“Political Gridlock”

Vigorous Learning Organization

Meta-Vision:Compression Thinking

Systems Thinking;Holism

CommonMission & GoalsBehavior for

LearningMission, not Status

Rigorous LearningSystem

(Scientific Method)

ServantLeadership

Needs Constant Reinforcement

RigorousLearning System

Methodologyof Thought

Active Recording& Archives

Behaviorfor Learning

ExternalKnowledgeand SearchSystems

And reachout from it.

#8Rigorous Learning

Systems Thinking

#9Servant Leadership

1. Mission

2. Troops

3. Me

4. Tell it like it is (the truth)

Servant Leadership

Compression ThinkingPioneer Examples

• Sekisui Chemical Company Housing Division

• Portion Pac Chemical Company

• Interface, Inc. (carpet)

• Ventana Medical

QUALITY OVER QUANTITY

Almost all the rest logically follows.

Create vigorous learning for:

www.compression.org

Our intent is to form learning action groupsto make Compression Thinking a common practice.