Comprehensive  Drought  Monitoring  and    

Early  Warning  Systems    By      

Robert  Stefanski    

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World  Meteorological  Organiza<on  

•  United  Na<ons  agency  for  weather,  climate,  hydrology  and  water  resources  and  related  environmental  issues.        

•  191  Members  from  Na<onal  Meteorological  and  Hydrological  Services  (NMHS)  –  New  Member  –  South  Sudan  (Dec  2012)    

•  10  major  scien<fic  &  technical  programmes  (Secretariat)  •  8  Technical  Commissions  advise  &  guide  ac<vi<es  of  

programmes  (Experts)  •  6  Regional  Associa<ons  involved  in  implementa<on    

Regional  Associa<ons  of  WMO  

RA-­‐III  

RA-­‐IV  RA-­‐VI  

RA-­‐I  

RA-­‐II  

RA-­‐V  

Regional  Climate  Centers  •  Opera<onal  Ac<vi<es  for  Long  Range  Forecas<ng    •  Opera<onal  Ac<vi<es  for  Climate  Monitoring  

–  Perform  climate  diagnos7cs  including  analysis  of  climate  variability  and  extremes,  at  regional  and  sub-­‐regional  scales;    

–  Establish  an  historical  reference  climatology  for  the  region  and/or  sub-­‐regions;    

–  Implement  a  regional  Climate  Watch  •  Opera<onal  Data  Services  

–  Develop  regional  climate  datasets,  gridded  where  applicable;    –  Provide  climate  database  and  archiving  services,  at  the  request  of  NMHSs.    

•  Training  in  the  use  of  opera<onal  RCC  products  and  services  

Regional  Climate  Centers  

RCC  for  Caribbean  -­‐  Caribbean  Ins<tute  for  Meteorology  and  Hydrology  (CIMH)  

RCC  for  Western  South  America  -­‐  Centro  Internacional  para  la  Inves<gación  del  Fenómeno  de  El  Niño  (CIIFEN)  

RCC-­‐Network  for  Southern  South  America  

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High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policies

•  March 11-15 2013 •  Over 414 participants from 87 countries •  Main Partners – UNCCD, FAO, WMO •  Key message: Help countries move from

reactive to proactive drought policies

•  12 representatives of UN agencies and international and regional organizations (NOAA, UNU, IFRC, IOM, CBD, WFP, IAEA, UNECA, JRC, ICARDA, GWP, ACMAD, ISDR) •  Final Declaration adopted – www.wmo.int/hmndp

Source:  Na<onal  Drought  Mi<ga<on  Center,  University  of  Nebraska-­‐Lincoln  

The  cycle  of  disaster  management  

8  www.droughtmanagement.info  

Integrated  Drought  Management  Programme  (IDMP)    

•  Established in 2013 at HMNDP •  Main co-sponsors WMO and Global Water Partnership

along with over 30 other organizations including FAO, UNCCD, and CBD

•  Supports stakeholders at all levels by providing policy and management guidance and by sharing scientific information, knowledge and best practices for Integrated Drought Management.

•  Contributes to global coordination of drought-related efforts of existing organizations & agencies

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  AEMET  -­‐  Spanish  Meteorological  Agency    Australian  Bureau  of  Meteorology    CONAGUA  Mexico’s  Na7onal  Water  

Commission    FAO  -­‐  Food  and  Agriculture  Organiza<on  of    

the  United  Na<ons    FEWS  NET      Famine  Early  Warning  Systems  

Network    UNCCD  -­‐  United  Na<ons  Conven<on  to  

Combat  Deser<fica<on    UNCBD  -­‐  Conven<on  on  Biological  

Diversity    George  Mason  University  Global  

Environment  and  Natural  Resources  Ins7tute    

  ICARDA  -­‐  Interna7onal  Center  for  Agricultural  Research  in  the  Dry  Areas    

  ICID  -­‐    Interna7onal  Commission  for  Irriga7on  and  Drainage  

  IMTA  -­‐Mexican  Ins7tute  of  Water  Technology  

  IWMI  -­‐    Interna7onal  Water  Management    Ins7tute  

  JRC  -­‐  Joint  Research  Centre    SEI  -­‐  Stockholm  Environment  Ins7tute    NDMC  -­‐  U.S.  Na7onal  Drought  Mi7ga7on  

Center    NIDIS  -­‐  U.S.  Na7onal  Integrated  Drought      

Informa7on  System    UNDP  Cap-­‐Net      UNDP  -­‐  United  Na7ons  Development        

Progamme    UNESCO  United  Na7ons  Educa7onal,  

Scien7fic  and  Cultural  Organiza7on    UNEP  -­‐  United  Na7ons  Environment      

Programme    UNISDR    United  Na7ons  Office  for  Disaster    

Risk  Reduc7on      University  of  Nebraska  Daugherty  Water  for  

Food  Ins7tute    University  of  Southern  Queensland    UNU  Flores    World  Bank  

IDMP  Partners  

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Drought  Ac<vi<es    •  FAO, UNCCD, WMO, CBD and UN Water - 6 Regional

National Drought Management Policy Workshops (2013-2015) –  Eastern Europe, Latin America, Asia-Pacific, North Africa and

Western Asia East and Southern Africa, West Africa •  IDMP Regional Projects

–  Central and Eastern Europe (since 2013) –  Horn of Africa (since 2014) –  West Africa (since 2015) –  South Asia Drought Monitoring System (since 2014) – with IWMI –  Central America (since 2013). –  South America (since 2015) - Developing South American Drought

Monitoring System –  Pacific Islands (since 2016)

Drought  Publica<ons  

  Handbook  is  a  resource  to  cover  most  commonly  used  drought  indicators/indices    A  star<ng  point  to  describe  and  characterize  the  most  common  indicators  and  indices  and  their  applica<ons    Does  not  recommend  a  ”best”  set  of  indicators  and  indices,  given  research  requirements  for  appropriate  applica<on  in  loca<on  in  ques<on.  

Handbook  of  Drought  Indicators  and  Indices  

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Importance  of  a  Drought  Monitoring  System  

•  allows  for  early  drought  detec7on  •  improves  response  (proac)ve)  •  “triggers”  ac7ons  within  a  drought  plan    •  a  cri7cal  mi)ga)on  ac7on  •  founda)on  of  a  drought  plan  

Source: Svoboda, 2009

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Poten<al  Monitoring  System  Products    and  Reports  

•  Historical  analysis    (climatology,  impacts,  magnitude,  frequency)  

•  Opera)onal    assessment  (coopera7ve  data,  SPI  and  other  indices,  automated  networks,  satellite  and  soil  moisture  data,  media  and  official  requests)  

•  Predic)ons/Projec)ons    (SPI  and  other  indices,  soil  moisture,  streamflow,  seasonal  forecasts,  SST’s)  

Source: Svoboda, 2009

Selec<ng  drought  indicators  and  indices  

 Timely  detec7on  of  drought  to  trigger  appropriate  communica7on  and  coordina7on  to  mi7gate  or  respond   Sensi7vity  to  climate,  space  and  7me  to  determine  drought  onset  and  termina7on   Responsive  to  reflect  drought  impacts  occurring  on  the  ground   Which  indicators/indices  and  triggers  to  use  for    going  into  and  coming  out  of  drought   Data  for  indices/indicator  available  and  record  consistent     Ease  of  implementa7on?  (Human,  ins7tu7onal  and  financial  capacity  available)  

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The US Drought Monitor is widely used:

Source: Svoboda, 2009

•  Policy –  Numerous  states  use  as  a  drought  trigger  (Governor’s  declara7ons)  

–  2006-­‐07  IRS  (tax  deferral  on  livestock  losses)  –  2008  Farm  Bill  –  NWS  Drought  Informa7on  Statements

•  ~3.75M page views and ~2M visitors/year

•  Media: The Weather Channel and all major newspapers and Network News

•  Presidential/Congressional briefings

•  A model of interagency/level collaboration  

North  American  Drought  Monitor  (NADM)  

+  

=  

+  

NorthEast  Brazil  Drought  Monitor  

•  Agência  Pernambucana  de  Águas  e  Clima  (APAC)  •  Fundação  Cearense  de  Meteorologia  e  Recursos  Hídricos  (FUNCEME)  •  Ins7tuto  de  Meio  Ambiente  e  Recursos  Hídricos  (INEMA)  do  Estado  da  Bahia  

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Components  of  a  Drought  Early  Warning  and  Informa<on  System  

•  Monitoring  AND  Forecas7ng  •  Tools  for  decision  makers  •  Drought  risk  assessment  and  planning  •  Educa<on  and  awareness  •  Communica<on  

•  An  early  warning  must  contain  a  statement  of  poten7al  future  risk,  whether  through  persistence  from  trends,  a  forecast,  a  scenario  or  an  analog  

WMO, UNCCD, FAO, UN-Water - Europe Regional Workshop on National Drought Management Policies. 9-11 July 2013, Bucharest, Romania

Time  during  normal  condi<ons  IndicatorsTriggers

Actions

I-1I-2I-3I-4

I-1Level 1 (SPI 0.0 to -0.99)Level 2 (SPI -1.0 to -1.49)Level 3 (SPI -1.5 to -1.99)Level 4 (SPI ≤ -2.0)

Level 2Action 1Action 2Action 3

Consider  Level  2  ;  SPI  =  -­‐1.25  (Moderate  drought)  

Consider  Ac<on  1:  Ban  watering  lawns  Consider  Ac<on  2:  Dig  extra  wells  for  livestock  and  

wildlife  in  area  Consider  Ac<on  3:  Reduce  irriga<on  of  annual  

crops  by  50%  

 Consider  I-­‐1  is  SPI  

3  Pillars  of  Integrated  Drought  Management  

INTEGRATED  DROUGHT  MANAGEMENT  

MONITORING/  EARLY  WARNING  Drought  status    

MITIGATION  &  PREPAREDNESS  

Ac7ons  and  measures  to  mi7gate  drought  impacts  and  prepare  to  respond  to  drought  emergencies  more  effec7vely  

VULNERABILITY  &  IMPACT  ASSESSMENT  

Who/What  is  at    RISK  &  Why?    Priori7za7on/  

Ranking  

DROUGHT  CHARACTERIZATION  STUDIES  

FEEDBACK  

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Workshop  on  Developing  a  Drought  Monitoring  and  EWS  for  South  America  

•  8-­‐10  August  2017  –Buenos  Aires,  Argen<na  •  Technical  Workshop  Requested  by  WMO  President  of  South  

American  Region  •  Par<cipants  from  13  Countries  -­‐  NMHS  –  Agriculture,  Energy  and  

Water  •  Recommended  to  develop  detailed  consensus  plan  to  implement  

a  regional  South  American  Drought  Informa<on  System  (DIS)  ini<ally  focused  on  6  Southern  South  American  Countries  and  subsequently  expanded  to  the  en<re  region.  

•  Plan   would   aim   to   iden<fy   exis<ng   &   needed   drought  informa<on,  data,  and  products,   and   to  elicit   regional  priori<es  for  the  desired  capabili<es  of  a  DIS.    

Thank  you