comprehensive plan update planning and land development regulation board workshop january 9, 2010

COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE

Planning and Land Development Regulation Board Workshop

January 9, 2010

UPDATE OF THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN

Update of Planning Horizon & City Update of Planning Horizon & City BoundariesBoundaries Update from 2020 to 2035Update from 2020 to 2035 Update Best Available Data Update Best Available Data Update affected policiesUpdate affected policies

Requirements of Senate Bill 697 Requirements of Senate Bill 697 (Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse (Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Reduction)Gas Reduction)

Update City BoundariesUpdate City Boundaries Creation of Northwest Corridor Overlay Creation of Northwest Corridor Overlay

Area (NCOA)Area (NCOA)

FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS

Data UsedData Used Bureau of Economic And Business Bureau of Economic And Business

Research (BEBR) Population Projections Research (BEBR) Population Projections to 2035 (Medium Series Projections)to 2035 (Medium Series Projections) Note that DCA has advised that High Series Note that DCA has advised that High Series

Projections will not be acceptedProjections will not be accepted Historic City growth as a share of Historic City growth as a share of

County growth.County growth.

BEBR 2035 Medium Series Projections BEBR 2035 Medium Series Projections (County Population Projection)(County Population Projection) BEBR is conservative in terms of long-term BEBR is conservative in terms of long-term

planning horizons.planning horizons. BEBR historically has undercounted growth in BEBR historically has undercounted growth in

Flagler County. Flagler County.

City Population Projection (Share of County City Population Projection (Share of County Population Growth)- Factors to ConsiderPopulation Growth)- Factors to Consider Historic trends of City capture of County Historic trends of City capture of County

PopulationPopulation Sufficiency of land use allocation and infrastructureSufficiency of land use allocation and infrastructure Continuation of trend is consistent with vision and Continuation of trend is consistent with vision and

policy direction of Comprehensive Plan.policy direction of Comprehensive Plan.


Historic Trend AnalysisHistoric Trend Analysis BEBRBEBR Estimated City Share of Growth Estimated City Share of Growth

Year 2000 Population

Year 2008 Population (BEBR)

Difference

City of City of Palm CoastPalm Coast

32,73232,732 73,91073,910 41,17841,178

Flagler Flagler CountyCounty

49,38249,382 94,91094,910 45,06945,069

Percentage Share of GrowthPercentage Share of Growth 91.4%91.4%


Historic Trend AnalysisHistoric Trend Analysis CensusCensus Estimated City Share of Growth Estimated City Share of Growth

Year 2000 Population

Year 2008 Population (Census)

Difference

City of City of Palm CoastPalm Coast

32,73232,732 72,31672,316 39,58439,584

Flagler Flagler CountyCounty

49,38249,382 91,24791,247 41,41541,415

Percentage Share of GrowthPercentage Share of Growth 95.6%95.6%


Historic Trend AnalysisHistoric Trend Analysis Cumulative Share of Countywide PopulationCumulative Share of Countywide Population City’s share has historically increased since 2000 City’s share has historically increased since 2000

CensusCensus

Estimate Date Flagler County Countywide Population

Palm Coast Population

Palm Coast Cumulative Share of Countywide Population

Apr-00 49832 32732 65.68%

Apr-01 53061 35443 66.80%

Apr-02 56785 38348 67.53%

Apr-03 61541 42850 69.63%

Apr-04 69683 50484 72.45%

Apr-05 78617 58216 74.05%

Apr-06 89075 67832 76.15%

Apr-07 93568 70376 75.21%

Apr-08 95512 74590 78.09%

Apr-09 94901 73910 77.88%

Average Annual Increase in Share 1.36%


Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections Various Techniques used to project future city share.Various Techniques used to project future city share.

Linear Regression of City share percentagesLinear Regression of City share percentages BEBR Shift-share method (increase based on average annual increase during base period – 1.36%)BEBR Shift-share method (increase based on average annual increase during base period – 1.36%) BEBR Share of Growth (City’s share of growth based on share of growth during base period – 91.4%)BEBR Share of Growth (City’s share of growth based on share of growth during base period – 91.4%) Logistic regression (share is capped at a future level and equation adjusts growth rate in share to conform to cap)Logistic regression (share is capped at a future level and equation adjusts growth rate in share to conform to cap)

All methods project City’s share to increase over time.All methods project City’s share to increase over time.


FINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTIONFINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTION Using the most conservative projection, BEBR Share of Using the most conservative projection, BEBR Share of

Growth, City’s population share will be 85% in 2035.Growth, City’s population share will be 85% in 2035. Other projections used indicate it occurring much soonerOther projections used indicate it occurring much sooner

Extrapolation Target Year Palm Coast Share of Countywide Growth

Linear Regression 2013 85.15%

BEBR Shift Share 2015 86.0%

BEBR Share of Growth 20152035

80.3%84.9%

Logistic 20152035

82.9%85% (capped)


FINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTIONFINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTION 2035 Population is 168,1122035 Population is 168,112 2035 County Population is 198,0002035 County Population is 198,000 City share of Population is 84.9%City share of Population is 84.9%

2015 2035 2025 2030 2035

Flagler County 115,600 137,500 158,700 178,900 198,000

Palm Coast 92,822 112,831 132,201 150,657 168,112

Cumulative Share of Countywide Population

80.3% 82.1% 83.3% 84.2% 84.9%


POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (Since 2000)POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (Since 2000) Average Household SizeAverage Household Size has remained virtually unchanged (-.02 to 2.36 persons per household) has remained virtually unchanged (-.02 to 2.36 persons per household)

State Household Size has increased slightly +.05 to 2.51State Household Size has increased slightly +.05 to 2.51

Median AgeMedian Age has decreased by 10 years to median age of 41 has decreased by 10 years to median age of 41

Age Cohorts Age Cohorts as percentage of populationas percentage of population 20-35 (+10% to 21%)20-35 (+10% to 21%) 35-65 (-3% to 35%)35-65 (-3% to 35%) 65-85 (-10% to 22%)65-85 (-10% to 22%)


EMPLOYMENT AND INCOMEEMPLOYMENT AND INCOME

Labor force has increased as share of population (+10% to 55.6%)Labor force has increased as share of population (+10% to 55.6%)

Median Household Income increased by 12.2% to $46,646, however, state has increased Median Household Income increased by 12.2% to $46,646, however, state has increased by 25.2% to $48,637.by 25.2% to $48,637.


RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDSRESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS Factors affecting land use needs:Factors affecting land use needs:

Underestimate of population through 2035Underestimate of population through 2035 Extent vacant lands develop below maximum allowable densities due to market conditions, regulatory constraints, Extent vacant lands develop below maximum allowable densities due to market conditions, regulatory constraints,

infrastructure limitationsinfrastructure limitations Extent to which landowners do not pursue development of their lands during planning timeframeExtent to which landowners do not pursue development of their lands during planning timeframe Extent platted lots are passed over due to changing demographics and market preferencesExtent platted lots are passed over due to changing demographics and market preferences


RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - DEMANDRESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - DEMAND Variables in projection:Variables in projection:

Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections Persons per household (2.38 from Census)Persons per household (2.38 from Census) Vacancy RateVacancy Rate

ACS does not indicate whether vacancy has increased from recession or increase in secondary home use.ACS does not indicate whether vacancy has increased from recession or increase in secondary home use. Analysis will use historic vacancy rate of 12% (In 2000 City vacancy rate was 9%, in 2008 - 16%)Analysis will use historic vacancy rate of 12% (In 2000 City vacancy rate was 9%, in 2008 - 16%)

2035 Projected Population2035 Projected Population 168,112168,112

2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected Population GrowthPopulation Growth

168,112 – 73,910 = 168,112 – 73,910 = 94,20294,202

2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected HouseholdsHouseholds

94,202/2.38 = 39,581 94,202/2.38 = 39,581 householdshouseholds

2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected Dwelling UnitsDwelling Units

39,581/.87 = 45,49539,581/.87 = 45,495


2035 Projected Population2035 Projected Population 168,112168,112

2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected Population GrowthPopulation Growth

168,112 – 73,910 = 168,112 – 73,910 = 94,20294,202

2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected HouseholdsHouseholds

94,202/2.38 = 39,581 94,202/2.38 = 39,581 householdshouseholds

2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected Dwelling UnitsDwelling Units

39,581/.87 = 45,49539,581/.87 = 45,495


Projected Needs for Dwelling Units

RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - SUPPLYRESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - SUPPLY

Vacant Vacant

Acreage

Vacant Residential

Acreage Max.

Density Max.

Capacity

Greenbelt

1,605

1,605

1.00 1,605

Mixed Use

2,424 485

10.31 4,998

Residential 695 695

9.00 6,255

Residential (Platted)

4,301

4,301

4.00

17,204

AGRICULTURE TIMBERLANDS

10,068

10,068

0.20 2,014 RESIDENTIAL LOW DENSITY RURAL ESTATE 693 693

1.00 693

DRI SR 100 DRI 673 2,411 Grand Haven DRI 197 382

Palm Coast Park DRI

4,671 3,600

Town Center DRI

1,353 2,500

Total 31,380 25,054

41,662 Neoga DRI Net Increase 5,635 Old Brick Township Net Increase 3,230 Bulow Amendment Net Increase 2,371

Total Residential Supply 54,254


RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – ADJUSTMENTSRESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – ADJUSTMENTS

DCA recommends a DCA recommends a multiplier of 1.25multiplier of 1.25

Multiplier is amount of land use allocation over projected demand in order to respond to supply Multiplier is amount of land use allocation over projected demand in order to respond to supply factors (building less than maximum density, delays in development, etc.)factors (building less than maximum density, delays in development, etc.)


RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – MULTIPLIERRESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – MULTIPLIER

Supply Demand Multiplier (Supply/Demand)

54,254 units54,254 units 45,495 45,495 unitsunits

1.191.19

56,869 units56,869 units

(+2,615) from (+2,615) from projected 2035 projected 2035 supplysupply

45,495 45,495 unitsunits

1.251.25


Conclusion:

•There is adequate acreage to accommodate projected population.

•There is ability to accommodate additional allocation for residential growth.

NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE-SUPPLYNON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE-SUPPLY

Land Use Vacant Acreage

Mixed Use (80% Non-Residential) 1,939

Industrial 581

Palm Coast DRI 310

Town Center DRI 533

S.R. 100 DRI 14

Neoga Lakes DRI 276

Old Brick Township 115

S. Old Kings Road Planning Area 287

Total 4,055


NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS-NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS-EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (DEMAND)EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (DEMAND)

2035 PROJECTED POPULATION

2035 PROJECTED

LABOR FORCE

2035 PROJECTED

CAPTURE RATE

2035 EMPLOYMENT

TARGET

2009-2035 EMPLOYMENT

TARGET

168,112 109,270 70% 76,489 66,645


2035 Demand

Supply (1.50)

Supply (1.75)

Supply (2.00)

Non-Residential (Acres) 2,601 3,901 4,552 5,202

Land Use Employees Square feet per Employee

Land Needed (acres)

Commercial (30%) 19,994 500 1,147

Office/Institutional (55%) 36,665 250 1,052 Industrial/R&D/Transportation (7%) 4,665 750 402

TOTAL 61,324 2,601

Summary discussion of updated data.Summary discussion of updated data. Update DRI name from West Palm Coast Update DRI name from West Palm Coast

Park DRI to Palm Coast Park DRI.Park DRI to Palm Coast Park DRI. Clarification of Density/Intensity limits Clarification of Density/Intensity limits

in DRI land use category.in DRI land use category. Update zoning district table under Update zoning district table under

Policy 1.1.1.1Policy 1.1.1.1 Update to new zoning districtsUpdate to new zoning districts

Update limitations on Update limitations on densities/intensities to reflect historical densities/intensities to reflect historical trends.trends.

Amend policies to reflect completion of Amend policies to reflect completion of land development code.land development code.

FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES

Amend reference from Planned Unit Amend reference from Planned Unit Development (PUD) to Master Development (PUD) to Master Planned Development (MPD)Planned Development (MPD)

Adopt policy to maintain 5-Year and Adopt policy to maintain 5-Year and Long Range Planning PeriodsLong Range Planning Periods

Delete references to Palm Coast Delete references to Palm Coast Community Service Corporation Community Service Corporation (PCCSC)(PCCSC)

Amend policy to coordinate on a Amend policy to coordinate on a countywide strategic economic countywide strategic economic development plan.development plan.

FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES

Data UsedData Used 2006-2008 American Community 2006-2008 American Community

Survey 3-Year Estimates (For Housing Survey 3-Year Estimates (For Housing Data)Data)

Shimberg Center for Housing Studies Shimberg Center for Housing Studies (for Household Socio-Economic Data)(for Household Socio-Economic Data) Projections to 2030 onlyProjections to 2030 only Uses 2005 BEBR ProjectionsUses 2005 BEBR Projections

UpdateUpdate Comparison of 2000 Census with Comparison of 2000 Census with

updated informationupdated information

HOUSING ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS

Historic Trend Analysis-Existing HousingHistoric Trend Analysis-Existing Housing

2000 Census 2006-2008 ACS

Housing StockHousing Stock 90% Single-90% Single-familyfamily

88% Single-88% Single-familyfamily

Age of HousingAge of Housing Nearly all are Nearly all are less than 30 less than 30 years old (built years old (built after 1970)after 1970)

Nearly all less Nearly all less than 35 years than 35 years old, 50% are old, 50% are less than 10 less than 10 years old (built years old (built after 2000)after 2000)

TenureTenure Owner-Owner-Occupancy – Occupancy – 85% of 85% of residentsresidents

Owner Owner Occupancy – Occupancy – 75% of 75% of residentsresidents


Historic Trend Analysis-Existing HousingHistoric Trend Analysis-Existing Housing

2000 Census 2006-2008 ACS

AffordabilityAffordability 40% of renters 40% of renters spend at least spend at least 30% of income 30% of income on housingon housing

65% of renters 65% of renters spend at least spend at least 30% of income 30% of income on housingon housing

Median ValueMedian Value $150,000$150,000 $230,300$230,300

Median RentMedian Rent $814$814 $1,074$1,074


Historic Trend – Percentage of Households by Income GroupHistoric Trend – Percentage of Households by Income Group

Income Group

2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030

0-30% AMI 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.3%

30.1-50% AMI 8.7% 9.0% 9.4% 9.5%

50.1% -80% AMI 16.9% 17.6% 18.1% 18.4%

80.01%-120% AMI 24.4% 24.3% 24.3% 24.5%

120%+ AMI 43.6% 42.9% 42.0% 41.3%

•Percentage of Households by Income Group


Source: Shimberg Center for Housing Data


Type 2009-2015

Annual 2015-2020

Annual 2020-2025

Annual

2025-2030

Annual 2030-2035

Annual

Population Growth 18,911 3,152 20,009 4,002 19,371 3,874 18,457 3,691 17,455 3,491

New Household Formations (2.38 persons/household) 7,946 1,324 8,407 1,681 8,139 1,628 7,755 1,551 7,334 1,467

Single-Family Units (80%) 6,357 1,059 6,726 1,345 6,511 1,302 6,204 1,241 5,867 1,173

Multi-Family Units (20%) 1,589 212 1,681 336 1,628 326 1,551 310 1,467 293

Total # of Units With Vacancy Rate of 12% 9,030 1,505 9,553 1,911 9,249 1,850 8,813 1,763 8,334 1,667

Housing Construction Needs (BEBR Projections)

Summary discussion of updated data.Summary discussion of updated data. Add term “extremely low” as a household Add term “extremely low” as a household

categorycategory Add reference to joint County-City Add reference to joint County-City

housing programhousing program Add reference to new housing programs Add reference to new housing programs

such as Neighborhood Stabilization such as Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP).Program (NSP).

Objective and Policy related to energy-Objective and Policy related to energy-efficient homesefficient homes

Renumber various objectives and policiesRenumber various objectives and policies

HOUSING ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES

RECREATION & OPEN SPACE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS

YEAR

2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Population 73,910 92,822 112,831 132,201 150,657 168,112

Existing Acres Developed 416.41 5.6 4.5 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.5 Undeveloped 595.04 8.1 6.4 5.3 4.5 3.9 3.5 Local 428.74 5.8 4.6 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.6 District 582.71 7.9 6.3 5.2 4.4 3.9 3.5

Total 1011.45 13.7 10.9 9.0 7.6 6.7 6.0

Allocation of Recreation and Open Space Area

Table 4.9 – Acreage Needed to Meet Recommended LOS 8 Acres/1000

2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Per Capita -5.5 -2.8 -0.9 0.4 1.4 2.0 Total Acreage

-409.7 -258.4 -98.4 56.6 204.2 343.9

*Note: Negative Numbers indicate surplus

RECREATION & OPEN SPACE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS

Summary discussion of updated Summary discussion of updated datadata

Change Table 4.1 Inventory of Change Table 4.1 Inventory of ParksParks

Update Policy 4.2.2.1 to reflect Update Policy 4.2.2.1 to reflect completion of various projectscompletion of various projects

Delete outdated referencesDelete outdated references

RECREATION & OPEN SPACE ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES

Add Intergovernmental Agreements Add Intergovernmental Agreements since 2004since 2004 Joint Water Supply Settlement Joint Water Supply Settlement

AgreementAgreement Joint County-City Housing ProgramJoint County-City Housing Program Coquina Coast Desalination Plant StudyCoquina Coast Desalination Plant Study Interlocal Agreement for School Facility Interlocal Agreement for School Facility

PlanningPlanning

INTERGOVERNMENTAL COORDINATION ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS

Delete references to Palm Coast Delete references to Palm Coast Community Service Corporation Community Service Corporation (PCCSC), Florida Water Service (PCCSC), Florida Water Service (FWS)(FWS)

Amend reference from Dayton Beach Amend reference from Dayton Beach Community College to Daytona State Community College to Daytona State CollegeCollege

Amend reference from NEFRPC to Amend reference from NEFRPC to NEFRCNEFRC

INTERGOVERNMENTAL COORDINATION ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES

comprehensive plan update planning and land development regulation board workshop january 9, 2010

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