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Hoisington Koegler Group Inc.
COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE Planning Commission Meeting February 23rd, 2017
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Planning Commission
Meeting • Introductions
– Hoisington Koegler Group – lead planners
– Short Elliot Hendrickson – technical support (transportation and environment/natural resources)
• Overview of project and schedule
• Overview and approach to stakeholder engagement
• Trends
• Discussion/reflection
Local
comprehensive
plan updates
Due
2018
10-Year Regional Planning Cycle
Local
Planning
Handbook and
System
Statements
Fall
2015
System and
policy plans
Transportation
Water
Housing
Parks
Jan
2015
Thrive
MSP
2040
May
2014
Census
2010
2011
2020 Census
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Prepare the County to best respond to new requirements
DC 2040 Opportunities
Position the County to receive grant
funds
Establish new directions for County
services
Coordinate with cities and other
agencies on shared initiatives
Connect with our residents on what
they need and want
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Project approach and
Schedule
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
County Role
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Components of a
Comprehensive Plan
COMPONENTS
LAND USE
HOUSING
ECONOMY
TRANSPORTATION WATER
RESOURCES
PARKS &
TRAILS
RESILIENCE
IMPLEMENTATION
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
DC 2040 Plan Chapters
DC 2030 DC 2040 Required DC 2040 Optional
Natural Systems Transportation* Economic Competitiveness
Land Use and Growth
Parks and Open Space Resilience (climate change, energy)
Transportation Water Resources
Growing and Nurturing People
Land Use
Housing
Implementation
*recently updated
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Project approach and
Schedule
ECONOMIC / DEMOGRAPHIC
INFORMATION
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
NATURAL
RESOURCES
PROTECTION
Regional Land Use Policies
ORDERLY &
EFFICIENT LAND
USE
ACCESS, MOBILITY, &
TRANSPORTATION
CHOICE
WATER
SUSTAINABILITY
ECONOMIC
COMPETITIVENESS
BUILDING IN
RESILIENCE
HOUSING
AFFORDABILITY
& CHOICE
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Community Designations
Community designations group jurisdictions with similar characteristics for application of regional land use policies
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Community Designations
Community designations group jurisdictions with similar characteristics for application of regional land use policies
Discourage
Growth
Encourage
Density
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Dakota County Forecasts
The Council’s forecasts are used to help plan infrastructure needs and weave consistent growth expectations throughout the comprehensive plan. * Dakota County is projected to absorb 11-12% of regional growth.
Source: Met
Council
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Dakota County Forecasts
POPULATION PROJECTIONS FROM METROPOLITAN COUNCIL
2010 2020 2030 2040
Developed Communities
Subtotal, Developed Communities --> 210,505 223,520 234,230 245,510
Growth Communities
Apple Valley 49,084 55,500 59,200 63,600
Farmington 21,086 24,300 28,300 32,500
Hastings 22,172 23,300 26,000 28,800
Lakeville 55,954 64,300 74,600 83,500
Rosemount 21,874 25,900 31,700 38,000
Subtotal, Developed Communities --> 170,170 193,300 219,800 246,400
Rural Areas
Subtotal, Rural Areas --> 17,877 19,050 20,640 22,140
Source: Met
Council
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Affordable Housing Need
Allocation
The county is encouraged to help every community plan for their share of the region’s need for low and moderate income housing.
5,163
Source: Met
Council
TRENDS
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
National Suburban Trends
Source: ULI
• Still leading the nation’s growth:
– 2000-2015: Suburban areas represented 91% of population growth, top 50 metro areas
• Becoming younger, more diverse:
– 81% of those under 18 live in suburbs
– 75% of 25 – 34 year olds
– 76% of nation’s minority population
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
National Suburban Trends
• Lack of options for first time home buyers:
– 2015: First time buyers were 32% of purchases (lowest level since late ‘80s)
– Residential market focused on higher end homes due to profitability
– Regulations, impact fees, NIMBYism, cost of land and materials – all have driven the cost of new homes up
– Question going forward: Who can figure out affordable products for younger, and first time, buyers?
Source: ULI
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Millennial Trends
• Millennials progress in life:
– Youngest Millennials shifting to family mode
– Desire better schools, more affordability - leading to a shift to suburbs
– Prefer suburban areas with aspects of urban living (walkability, gathering places, etc.)
– Prefer renovations & rehabbing of older homes (First ring suburbs).
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Anticipated National Trends (ULI)
• Surge in household formation, 2016 - 2025:
– 12.5M new households (only 7M, from 2006-15)
– Suburbs of all kinds expected to absorb 79% of new households
– 58% of new households will be renters
– Anticipated trend toward renting detached homes (as opposed to apartments)
Source: ULI
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Anticipated National Trends (ULI)
• Demand for more walkable, cohesive suburban developments (“Surban”):
– Retail has become experience-driven
– Consumers want retail that is walkable from housing
• Diversity:
– Immigration will represent half of U.S. population growth through 2023
– Shift in immigration to affluent & upper-class families from emerging economies
Source: ULI
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Anticipated National Trends (ULI)
• “Surban” Development Attributes:
– Smaller homes, with little or no yards, meeting demands to commute less, live closer to restaurants & entertainment
– Housing affordability, home size, privacy, and kid-friendliness feel more urban than suburban
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Anticipated National Trends (ULI)
• “Surban” Development Attributes:
– School quality, public transportation, and proximity to employment feel more suburban
– Bring the “best of urban living” to more affordable suburban settings
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Anticipated National Trends
• Increased e-commuting leads to “hotel-like” suburban offices
– Decrease in square feet per employee
• Workplaces focus on diversity, work-life balance, virtual teams, health & wellness
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Anticipated National Trends
• Sharing economy
– Retail: Ridesharing and carsharing (Uber, Lyft, Zipcar)
– Retail: Independent connections from producers to sellers (Etsy, Ebay)
– Services: Car repair, home repair (Taskrabbit, Handy)
– Finance: Peer-to-peer financing / investments / lending (Kickstarter, Indiegogo)
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Trends in Technology
• Connectedness
• Access to internet for
education and medicine
– Vulnerability of connected
systems
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Parks and Recreation Trends
• Actively aging
– More senior fitness options & programming
– Desire for volunteer opportunities
– Adaptable, multi-faceted systems to respond to changing recreation demands
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Parks and Recreation Trends
• Increased interest in trails
• Increasingly health conscious
• Increasingly environmentally conscious
• Concerns about climate change
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Demands on Parks and
Recreation Systems
• Convenience
• Flexible hours
• More hours of
programming
• After-school
programming
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Demands on Parks and
Recreation Systems
• More natural areas
• More educational / interpretive programs
• Balance of environment & recreation
• Desire for passive open space
• Interest in aesthetics and gardens
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Athletic Facilities - Trends
• Designed for events, not just sports
• Include accessory amenities (concessions, restrooms, playground, trails)
• Rising demand for soccer fields
• New & niche sports (ultimate Frisbee, rugby, lacrosse, disc golf, etc.)
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Athletic Facilities - Trends
• Emergence of year-round participation in single sports
• Rise of training programs
• Increased demand for multi-purpose fields
• Divergence of “elite” sports from recreational
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Recreational / Community
Facilities - Trends
• Sports & wellness facilities have become centers of community social interaction & events
• Focus on multi-generational needs
• Meeting rooms, family entertainment areas, etc.
• Greater variety of offerings (climbing walls, yoga, pilates, etc.)
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Trends in Aging
• Challenges with aging in the
suburbs (lack of transit,
houses not designed for
aging)
• Health care needs
– Alternatives to traditional long
term care facilities
– In-home care, granny flats,
tiny homes, cooperatives, and
new housing with care models
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Equity
• Increasing wage
inequality
• Gender and racial equity
issues
• Relates to jobs mix in
Dakota County
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Green Stormwater Trends
• Rainwater catchment or harvesting
• Rainwater irrigation systems
• Temporary containment of water (bioswales, rain gardens, etc.)
• Constructed wetlands
• Permeable pavements
• Green roofs
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Transportation Trends
• Potential for autonomous vehicles
• Ride sharing helps solve “last mile” issues, may reduce congestion & pollution
• Use of technology (including smart phone apps) helps people choose the best multi-modal option(s)
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Transportation Trends • Ride-sourcing services
for kids & seniors
• First / last mile partnerships with transit agencies
• Electric bike shares for hills, heat, wind, and sprawl
• Payment integration of one card and one app for all transportation needs
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Transportation Trends • In 2014, Americans bought
more bicycles than cars and trucks
• Bike-friendly buildings with amenities (repair stations, showers and lockers, community gathering places) gaining popularity
• Younger people want more options besides cars for the 43% of trips that are less than three miles
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Transportation Trends
• Integrated mobility hubs for car, bike, transit, car parking, and dropoff are key to smoothing transitions between modes
• Uber and Lyft are merely the “gateway drug” in mobility sharing
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Transportation Trends
• Enhanced signal technologies (to provide for bike / pedestrian safety)
• Complete Streets facilities
– Pavement markings
– Protected bikeways
– Protected and raised intersections
– ADA compliance
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Natural Resources Trends
• Focus on invasive species, particularly aquatics
• Impact of new state buffer law (along ditches, public waters)
• Focus on threatened and endangered species
• Enhancements to GIS data and remote sensing in analyzing natural resources
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Water Trends
• Aquifer levels continue
to decline
• Increased
groundwater
contamination
(particularly in ag
areas)
• Focus on water
sustainability at
regional level
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Solid Waste Trends
• Continued need to
encourage
adequate resource
recovery market
• Focus on source
reduction to reduce
waste levels
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Solid Waste Trends
• Stagnant recycling rates
• Landfilling, organics, waste reduction could be the most powerful tools
• Organized collection
• Trash traveling great distances for processing or disposal
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Additional Sustainability
Trends • Dramatic drop in cost of solar
technologies drives increased demand for solar panels, solar gardens
• Continued trends toward renewable energies, away from higher-carbon fossil fuels
• Significant opportunities for improved energy efficiencies in existing homes, businesses, and public buildings
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Trends in Farming • Proliferation of pattern drain tile
• Extensive irrigation
• Increasing groundwater contamination
• Tenure changes uncertain (hard to transition to
new farmers)
• Consolidation of farms
• Monoculture with increasing national monopoly on
seed types (and decreasing genetic biodiversity)
and decrease in individual farmer choice
• Increase in fringe and pesticide resistant “super
weeds” disrupting ecosystems.
• Increasing divide between rural and urban,
reflected in decline of farming
• Increased number of “big” weather events with
climate change is modifying how farmers farm
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Energy and Climate Change
Impacts
• Negative side of
renewables
– Rare earth element reliance
– Battery disposal
• Concern for inequity in
who is adversely impacted
by climate change
– Specific emphasis on
vulnerable populations
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Engagement and Civic
Responsibility
• Challenge and
opportunity to
engage the
community in the
various planning
areas
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Project approach and
Schedule
STAKEHOLDER AND PUBLIC
ENGAGEMENT
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2018
Phase 1:
Inform and Listen
Phase 2:
Present, Discuss, and
Collaborate
Phase 3:
Report,
Discuss,
and Agree
= Key Community
Engagement
Engagement Phases
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Key Events by Phase
• Phase 1
– Survey
– Vision Summit and focus groups – targeted survey
– Public “open house” or “intercept”
• Phase 2
– Vision Summit follow up and focus groups
– Web site content/survey
– Public “open house” or “intercept”
• Phase 3
– Web site content/survey
– Pop up events or intercepts
– Formal Public Hearing
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Stakeholders
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Stakeholders
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Stakeholders
DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
What’s Next
Hoisington Koegler Group Inc.
THANK YOU!