complementary contributions of correlative and satellite measurements to validation and science anne...

Complementary Contributions of Complementary Contributions of Correlative and Satellite Measurements Correlative and Satellite Measurements

to Validation and Scienceto Validation and Science

Anne DouglassAnne Douglass

NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterNASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Greenbelt MD USAGreenbelt MD USA

Aura – Atmospheric ChemistryAura – Atmospheric Chemistry Aura – Atmospheric ChemistryAura – Atmospheric Chemistry

• Third large EOS Observatory Third large EOS Observatory following Terra and Aquafollowing Terra and Aqua

• Four instrumentsFour instruments

• Polar orbit at 1:38 PM crossingPolar orbit at 1:38 PM crossing

• Launched – July 15, 2004Launched – July 15, 2004

• Science ObjectivesScience Objectives

– Tracking ozone layerTracking ozone layer

– Global measurements of air qualityGlobal measurements of air quality

– Connecting atmospheric chemistry with Connecting atmospheric chemistry with climateclimate

OMI TES HIRDLS MLSOMI TES HIRDLS MLS

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Validation of Aura dataValidation of Aura dataValidation of Aura dataValidation of Aura data

• Platform wide planPlatform wide plan

• Other satellites play an important roleOther satellites play an important role

• Ground based observationsGround based observations

– Ozone sondesOzone sondes

– Water vapor sondesWater vapor sondes

• Field campaignsField campaigns

– BalloonBalloon

– AircraftAircraft• DC-8, WB-57DC-8, WB-57

Aura Validation Campaign TimelineAura Validation Campaign TimelineAura Validation Campaign TimelineAura Validation Campaign Timeline

Jan. 04 Jan. 04 – pre-AVE- (Costa Rica)– pre-AVE- (Costa Rica)Aug. 04 Aug. 04 -- Ticosonde I (Costa Rica)-- Ticosonde I (Costa Rica)Oct. 04Oct. 04 -- Houston AVE I -- Houston AVE I Jan. 05 Jan. 05 – PAVE – PAVE Jan. 05 Jan. 05 -- Polar high altitude balloon launch (failed)-- Polar high altitude balloon launch (failed)June 05 June 05 – Houston AVE II– Houston AVE IIJuly-Aug. 05 -- Ticosonde II campaign - Costa RicaJuly-Aug. 05 -- Ticosonde II campaign - Costa RicaSept. 05 Sept. 05 -- Validation Workshop I-- Validation Workshop ISept. 05Sept. 05 -- High altitude balloon launch-- High altitude balloon launchJan.-Feb. 06 Jan.-Feb. 06 – Costa Rica AVE (CR-AVE) (payload increased)– Costa Rica AVE (CR-AVE) (payload increased)Jan. 06Jan. 06 -- -- Polar high altitude balloonsPolar high altitude balloons (tried to replace failed ‘05 launch,next year?)(tried to replace failed ‘05 launch,next year?)Jan.-Feb. 06Jan.-Feb. 06 --Ticosonde campaign - Costa Rica (added)--Ticosonde campaign - Costa Rica (added)Mar.- Apr. 06 Mar.- Apr. 06 – INTEX-B (Houston, Anchorage, Hawaii) (lidars added)– INTEX-B (Houston, Anchorage, Hawaii) (lidars added)April 06April 06 -- Sodänkyla High latitude ozone column intercomparison campaign -- Sodänkyla High latitude ozone column intercomparison campaign Jul. 07 Jul. 07 – AVE/TC4 summer (Costa Rica)– AVE/TC4 summer (Costa Rica) + sonde campaign + sonde campaign

Jan. 04 Jan. 04 – pre-AVE- (Costa Rica)– pre-AVE- (Costa Rica)Aug. 04 Aug. 04 -- Ticosonde I (Costa Rica)-- Ticosonde I (Costa Rica)Oct. 04Oct. 04 -- Houston AVE I -- Houston AVE I Jan. 05 Jan. 05 – PAVE – PAVE Jan. 05 Jan. 05 -- Polar high altitude balloon launch (failed)-- Polar high altitude balloon launch (failed)June 05 June 05 – Houston AVE II– Houston AVE IIJuly-Aug. 05 -- Ticosonde II campaign - Costa RicaJuly-Aug. 05 -- Ticosonde II campaign - Costa RicaSept. 05 Sept. 05 -- Validation Workshop I-- Validation Workshop ISept. 05Sept. 05 -- High altitude balloon launch-- High altitude balloon launchJan.-Feb. 06 Jan.-Feb. 06 – Costa Rica AVE (CR-AVE) (payload increased)– Costa Rica AVE (CR-AVE) (payload increased)Jan. 06Jan. 06 -- -- Polar high altitude balloonsPolar high altitude balloons (tried to replace failed ‘05 launch,next year?)(tried to replace failed ‘05 launch,next year?)Jan.-Feb. 06Jan.-Feb. 06 --Ticosonde campaign - Costa Rica (added)--Ticosonde campaign - Costa Rica (added)Mar.- Apr. 06 Mar.- Apr. 06 – INTEX-B (Houston, Anchorage, Hawaii) (lidars added)– INTEX-B (Houston, Anchorage, Hawaii) (lidars added)April 06April 06 -- Sodänkyla High latitude ozone column intercomparison campaign -- Sodänkyla High latitude ozone column intercomparison campaign Jul. 07 Jul. 07 – AVE/TC4 summer (Costa Rica)– AVE/TC4 summer (Costa Rica) + sonde campaign + sonde campaign

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Pre-Validation Phase

AuraAura Aura and the A-TrainAura and the A-Train

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b = sonde campaignb = sonde campaignB = high altitude balloonsB = high altitude balloons

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Completed activitiesCompleted activitiesPlanned activitiesPlanned activitiesAugmentationsAugmentations

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Paradigm shiftParadigm shiftParadigm shiftParadigm shift

• NASA HQ directed that aircraft missions be aligned NASA HQ directed that aircraft missions be aligned with science goals from the satellite program (1999).with science goals from the satellite program (1999).

• Validation missions should be developed in which the Validation missions should be developed in which the validation data have a double purposevalidation data have a double purpose

– Validation of satellite dataValidation of satellite data

– Science goals that are addressed through Science goals that are addressed through synergistic use of satellite data and validation data.synergistic use of satellite data and validation data.

Synergistic use of satellite data with observations from Synergistic use of satellite data with observations from other platforms to address science issuesother platforms to address science issues

1.1. Chemical Observations of a Polar Vortex Intrusion Chemical Observations of a Polar Vortex Intrusion [Schoeberl et al., JGR, in press, 2006][Schoeberl et al., JGR, in press, 2006]a)a) Aura MLSAura MLSb)b) DC-8 Aircraft Observations from the PAVE missionDC-8 Aircraft Observations from the PAVE mission

2.2. On detecting a trend in the residual circulation from On detecting a trend in the residual circulation from observations of column HCl [Olsen et al., GRL., in observations of column HCl [Olsen et al., GRL., in press, 2006]press, 2006]a)a) Stratospheric HCl profiles (HALOE) Stratospheric HCl profiles (HALOE) b)b) Ground-based HCl column measurementsGround-based HCl column measurements

Chemical Observations of a Polar Vortex Chemical Observations of a Polar Vortex IntrusionIntrusion


Polar Aura Validation Experiment (PAVE)Polar Aura Validation Experiment (PAVE)mid-January - early February 2005mid-January - early February 2005based in Pease NHbased in Pease NH

DC-8 aircraft DC-8 aircraft AROTAL lidar - ozone and T profilesAROTAL lidar - ozone and T profilesDIAL lidar - ozone, aerosols DIAL lidar - ozone, aerosols

On January 31 lidars detected an anomaly in the On January 31 lidars detected an anomaly in the stratospheric vortex ozone, suggesting the presence of stratospheric vortex ozone, suggesting the presence of vortex edge air within the polar vortex. This was traced to an vortex edge air within the polar vortex. This was traced to an “inward breaking vortex intrusion”.“inward breaking vortex intrusion”.



What is an “inward breaking What is an “inward breaking vortex event”?vortex event”?

A map of PV at 480 K shows A map of PV at 480 K shows some structure, but nothing some structure, but nothing in the vicinity of the aircraft in the vicinity of the aircraft track. track.

Use an analysis technique called “reverse domain fill” (RDF).Use an analysis technique called “reverse domain fill” (RDF).Start with a regular, dense grid for DayStart with a regular, dense grid for Day00; calculate 6-day back ; calculate 6-day back

trajectories and find the PV (Otrajectories and find the PV (O33, HNO, HNO33, etc.); map Day, etc.); map Day66 PV (O PV (O33, ,

HNOHNO33, etc.) onto the original grid on Day, etc.) onto the original grid on Day00. This “diffusion-less . This “diffusion-less

transport” shows that small scale structures are generated by the transport” shows that small scale structures are generated by the shear in the large-scale flow.shear in the large-scale flow.



DC-8 flight trackDC-8 flight track

Filament of low PV Filament of low PV (high O3) being drawn (high O3) being drawn into the polar vortex.into the polar vortex.

Plumb et al. 1994 analyzed a similar event using AASE2 aircraft Plumb et al. 1994 analyzed a similar event using AASE2 aircraft data (aerosols). Such events are not uncommon in the Northern data (aerosols). Such events are not uncommon in the Northern Hemisphere.Hemisphere.



Apply the same analysis procedure to the mapped MLS ozone. Apply the same analysis procedure to the mapped MLS ozone. The structure does not appear in the map due to averaging, but The structure does not appear in the map due to averaging, but it does appear in the RDF field. it does appear in the RDF field.



AROTAL clearly shows the high ozone intrusion inside the AROTAL clearly shows the high ozone intrusion inside the vortex edge. MLS shows evidence of the larger filament. The vortex edge. MLS shows evidence of the larger filament. The dashed line in part b is the AROTAL lidar 3 ppmv contour.dashed line in part b is the AROTAL lidar 3 ppmv contour.

MLS data: ~ 1.5 degrees latitude, ~ 2 km vertical resolutionAROTAL : ~ 5 minutes along flight track, 0.75 - 3 km vertical resolution

DC-8 flight was along the Aura Track. Compare the flight track DC-8 flight was along the Aura Track. Compare the flight track data from AROTAL with the along-orbit MLS contours.data from AROTAL with the along-orbit MLS contours.



Apply RDF technique to MLS Apply RDF technique to MLS from January 25. from January 25.

3 ppmv contour3 ppmv contour Thick BlackThick Black : MLS: MLS Thin BlackThin Black : AROTAL: AROTAL OrangeOrange : MLS RDF: MLS RDF

(Validation appears successful, and we could stop here, but there are (Validation appears successful, and we could stop here, but there are lots of other observations on the DC-8 and “synergy” beckons.)lots of other observations on the DC-8 and “synergy” beckons.)



Instruments on the DC-8Instruments on the DC-8DIAL lidar - Polar stratospheric cloud observationsDIAL lidar - Polar stratospheric cloud observations

Other measurements on AuraOther measurements on AuraMLS - HNOMLS - HNO33, H, H22O, NO, N22OO

Lidars + MLS + trajectory analysis provide a detailed Lidars + MLS + trajectory analysis provide a detailed picture of the inward breaking event and explanation for picture of the inward breaking event and explanation for the spatial distribution of PSCs.the spatial distribution of PSCs.



DIAL sees PSCs that DIAL sees PSCs that are separated by an are separated by an area of low HNOarea of low HNO3 3

(denitrified region). (denitrified region). The solid magenta The solid magenta lines show NAT lines show NAT formation temperature. formation temperature. So one area of PSCs So one area of PSCs is “explained” but the is “explained” but the other is not.other is not.



Further trajectory Further trajectory analysis is revealing. The analysis is revealing. The dashed lines show dashed lines show “exposure to PSC “exposure to PSC temperatures” in the last temperatures” in the last 6 days. The unexplained 6 days. The unexplained PSCs were apparently PSCs were apparently advected from a colder advected from a colder region a few days prior to region a few days prior to this observation and are this observation and are probably evaporating.probably evaporating.

Chemical Observations of a Polar Vortex Chemical Observations of a Polar Vortex Intrusion - SummaryIntrusion - Summary

Chemical Observations of a Polar Vortex Chemical Observations of a Polar Vortex Intrusion - SummaryIntrusion - Summary

• ValidationValidation

– MLS lower stratospheric structure confirmed.MLS lower stratospheric structure confirmed.

– MLS ozone profiles shown to be within expected accuracyMLS ozone profiles shown to be within expected accuracy

• Synergistic process studySynergistic process study

– Spatial variability of PSCs observed by DIAL explained using MLS Spatial variability of PSCs observed by DIAL explained using MLS HNOHNO33, H, H22O and trajectory-based analysisO and trajectory-based analysis

– With further analysis, Shoeberl et al. :With further analysis, Shoeberl et al. :

• Estimate vortex denitrification using the relationship between Estimate vortex denitrification using the relationship between HNOHNO33 and N and N22OO

• Estimate local denitrification rate within the filamentEstimate local denitrification rate within the filament

• Use the lack of evidence of the filament in MLS HCl and the Use the lack of evidence of the filament in MLS HCl and the presence of PSCs to infer that heterogeneous reactions have presence of PSCs to infer that heterogeneous reactions have already converted that HCl into reactive chlorinealready converted that HCl into reactive chlorine

Changing GearsChanging GearsChanging GearsChanging Gears

Analysis of the PAVE filament is a good example of a synergistic Analysis of the PAVE filament is a good example of a synergistic use of in situ and satellite data along with RDF calculations to use of in situ and satellite data along with RDF calculations to address chemical and physical processes that take place on a address chemical and physical processes that take place on a short (few days) time scale. short (few days) time scale.

The next subject will focus on a diagnostic of stratospheric The next subject will focus on a diagnostic of stratospheric change that will depend on a long-time series of ground-based change that will depend on a long-time series of ground-based column observations. The diagnostic itself is developed using column observations. The diagnostic itself is developed using the ground-based data, satellite profiles, and a chemistry and the ground-based data, satellite profiles, and a chemistry and transport model. transport model.

Possible Metric for Detection of Change in Possible Metric for Detection of Change in Stratospheric Residual CirculationStratospheric Residual Circulation


50 year simulation with the Goddard Chemistry and Transport Model50 year simulation with the Goddard Chemistry and Transport Model• ““standard” stratospheric photochemistrystandard” stratospheric photochemistry• JPL-2002JPL-2002• WMO scenario A2WMO scenario A2• Lin and Rood (1996) numerical transportLin and Rood (1996) numerical transport• most recent publication: Stolarski et al., 2006 JASmost recent publication: Stolarski et al., 2006 JAS• Meteorological fields from a 50 year simulation with Meteorological fields from a 50 year simulation with Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4, General Circulation Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4, General Circulation ModelModel

• imposed SSTs (Radnor et al., 2003)imposed SSTs (Radnor et al., 2003)• Lin and Rood dynamical coreLin and Rood dynamical core

• Good age-of-air and lots of good comparisons with Good age-of-air and lots of good comparisons with observations from various sourcesobservations from various sources

Start with the ground Start with the ground based data (red lines). The based data (red lines). The HCl columns from the HCl columns from the Jungfraujoch station show Jungfraujoch station show a signficant seasonal cycle a signficant seasonal cycle (simulation does also . . .)(simulation does also . . .)What produces that What produces that seasonal cycle?seasonal cycle?

Jungfraujoch 46.6 oN



Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC), formerly Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC)



HALOE 40-50N CTM

HCl profiles of partial pressure

The HALOE HCl partial pressure profiles show that the The HALOE HCl partial pressure profiles show that the seasonal cycle is dominated by changes in middleworld seasonal cycle is dominated by changes in middleworld composition with a maximum in March-April-May.composition with a maximum in March-April-May.

The CTM HCl partial pressure profiles exhibit the same The CTM HCl partial pressure profiles exhibit the same behavior.behavior.

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D



Winter transport Winter transport from strat to trop is from strat to trop is stronger (higher stronger (higher HCl)HCl)

Summer isentropic Summer isentropic transport is transport is stronger (low HCl) stronger (low HCl)

summer summer tropopausetropopause

winter tropopausewinter tropopause

Seasonal cycle in middleworld composition depends on Seasonal cycle in middleworld composition depends on winter/spring transport from the stratosphere, summer quasi-winter/spring transport from the stratosphere, summer quasi-isentropic transport from the upper tropical troposphere, and the isentropic transport from the upper tropical troposphere, and the seasonal change in the tropopause height [Ray et al., 1999; seasonal change in the tropopause height [Ray et al., 1999; others]. others].



Like many climate models, our Like many climate models, our GCM fields show an increase in GCM fields show an increase in stratosphere to troposphere stratosphere to troposphere exchange.exchange.

The change varies with season, The change varies with season, and is least important during and is least important during summer. It is very important summer. It is very important during MAM.during MAM.

Can we use this information Can we use this information with the HCl column with the HCl column measurements to detect if such measurements to detect if such a change is occurring?a change is occurring?



The simulated HCl The simulated HCl seasonal amplitude seasonal amplitude increases with time, and increases with time, and is is correlated with the is is correlated with the change in STE.change in STE.(We removed the trend (We removed the trend in HCl due to changes in HCl due to changes in chlorine source in chlorine source gases). gases).

Has there been a change so far? Data are inclusiveHas there been a change so far? Data are inclusive• early ground-based record not enough days to define seasonal cycleearly ground-based record not enough days to define seasonal cycle• HALOE - UARS power issues, not enough days to define seasonal HALOE - UARS power issues, not enough days to define seasonal cyclecycle

(We estimate 5-10 more years are needed to identify a signal as large (We estimate 5-10 more years are needed to identify a signal as large as the signal in our GCM fields; more (fewer) years are needed if we as the signal in our GCM fields; more (fewer) years are needed if we under (over) estimate the “actual” signal (if there is one))under (over) estimate the “actual” signal (if there is one))

Possible Metric for Detection of Change in Possible Metric for Detection of Change in Stratospheric Residual Circulation - ConclusionStratospheric Residual Circulation - Conclusion

Possible Metric for Detection of Change in Possible Metric for Detection of Change in Stratospheric Residual Circulation - ConclusionStratospheric Residual Circulation - Conclusion

• A trend in the amplitude of seasonal cycle of HCl column may A trend in the amplitude of seasonal cycle of HCl column may reveal long term changes in the stratospheric residual reveal long term changes in the stratospheric residual circulationcirculation

– Column measurements show and annual cycle that is Column measurements show and annual cycle that is reproduced by a 3D CTM simulationreproduced by a 3D CTM simulation

– Stratospheric profiles show almost no seasonal cycle - the Stratospheric profiles show almost no seasonal cycle - the seasonal cycle in the total column is produced by seasonal cycle in the total column is produced by middleworld transport.middleworld transport.

– Simulation meteorological fields exhibit a trend in the Simulation meteorological fields exhibit a trend in the stratospheric mass input to the lowermost stratosphere. This stratospheric mass input to the lowermost stratosphere. This trend changes the maximum in the HCl but does not change trend changes the maximum in the HCl but does not change the minimum - the amplitude of the seasonal cycle increases.the minimum - the amplitude of the seasonal cycle increases.

– Continued monitoring of the HCl column at middle latitudes Continued monitoring of the HCl column at middle latitudes may eventually reveal whether predicted changes in the may eventually reveal whether predicted changes in the residual circulation are real.residual circulation are real.

ConclusionConclusionConclusionConclusion

• Analysis of in situ data with satellite data for the inward wave Analysis of in situ data with satellite data for the inward wave breaking event shows that the data forms are complementary. breaking event shows that the data forms are complementary. The results of this analysis show that synergy far exceeds that The results of this analysis show that synergy far exceeds that implied by statements like “satellite data provide context for implied by statements like “satellite data provide context for interpretation of in situ measurements”. interpretation of in situ measurements”.

• Use of models and satellite profiles to interpret the seasonal Use of models and satellite profiles to interpret the seasonal variation in column measurements leads to a possible means of variation in column measurements leads to a possible means of assessing climate induced changes in the residual circulation. assessing climate induced changes in the residual circulation. The potential of the column time series is revealed using the The potential of the column time series is revealed using the satellite profiles.satellite profiles.

complementary contributions of correlative and satellite measurements to validation and science anne...

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