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NT Pastoral Feed Outlook

DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY AND FISHERIES

Published: Wednesday 2 November 2005

March 2015

The purpose of this quarterly outlook is to summarise information relevant to the pastoral industry such as current feed supplies, seasonal conditions, the development of drought conditions in central Australia and fire risk.

You can see the entire document and all districts by continuing to scroll through this file. If you are interested in selected sections, you can click on the links below.

Summary of current situation & trends - all districts

Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at March 2015

Individual District Summaries:

Darwin District

Katherine District

Victoria River District

Sturt Plateau District

Roper District

Gulf District

Barkly District

Tennant Creek District

Northern Alice Springs District

Plenty District

Southern Alice Springs District

·

© Northern Territory Government, 2006 Page 2 of 15

© Northern Territory Government, Mar-15Page 5 of 15

KEY

Green = low risk

Orange = watch

Red = high risk

KEY

↑ = increasing trend

↓ = decreasing trend

↔ = steady

Northern Territory Pastoral Districts

Indicator

Darwin

Katherine

VRD

Sturt Plateau

Roper

Gulf

Barkly

Tennant Creek

Northern Alice Springs

Plenty

Southern Alice Springs

Comments

2014/15 total pasture growth

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

Arrows indicate trend compared to the long-term median.

Current estimated standing biomass

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

↑

Arrows indicate trend since previous quarter.

Current seasonal outlook

↑

↑

↑

↔

↑

↑

↔

↑

↑

↓

↔

Arrows indicate the trend since previous quarter and taking into account the forecasted model predictions.

Current fire risk

↓

↓

↓

↓

↓

↓

↔

↓

↔

↔

↔

Arrows indicate the trend since previous quarter.

Summary of current situation & trends - all districts – March 2015

KATHERINE PASTORAL DISTRECT

For further information about this Outlook, please contact Dionne Walsh on 8999 2178 or Chris Materne on 8951 8135

© Northern Territory Government, Mar-15 Page 4 of 15

Sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/

The national outlook for March to May 2015 indicates that:

· Wetter than normal across central Australia

· Warmer than normal days more likely across the majority of the NT

Climate influences include warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and to the south and west of Australia.

Chance of exceeding the median max. temp.

March to May 2015

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall

March to May 2015

Seasonal Indicators

Comments (sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology)

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

Current outlook:

Neutral

El Niño Alert

El Niño ALERT Level

(50% Chance of El Niño developing)

Model consensus indicates El Niño by winter 2015.

While the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently neutral, the odds of an El Niño developing in 2015 have increased. Therefore, the ENSO Tracker status has been raised to El Niño WATCH.

This is a result of recent increases in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, as well as consensus amongst climate models that El Niño thresholds will be met during winter. An El Niño WATCH means there is at least a 50% chance of an El Niño developing in 2015, based on the historical record.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Current outlook:

Neutral

The IOD index remains neutral.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour a continuation of a neutral phase of the IOD until at least early in the austral winter.

The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April. During this time of year, establishment of negative or positive IOD patterns is largely inhibited by the development and position of the monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere.

Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at March 2015

Risks:

· None to report

2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 March 2015)

Pasture Growth*

(% of district)

Below Average

45%

Average

53%

Above Average

2%

<1,000kg/ha

0%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

74%

>2,000kg/ha

26%

Currently

Total Standing Dry Matter

(% of district)

Below Average

75%

Average

24%

Above Average

1%

<1,000kg/ha

0%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

92%

>3,000kg/ha

8%

Fire Risk

(% of district)

High

0%

Moderate

35%

Low

65%

Area Burnt

(% of district)

23% (since 1 July 2014)

* In the Top End, pasture growth tends to be similar year to year regardless of rainfall. This is because pasture growth in the Top End is typically not water-limited and keeps growing until available soil nitrogen is exhausted. For this reason, any interpretation of growth being above or below the median should be treated cautiously because the actual difference between years is relatively small.

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)

(Running Total)

Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth

(March – May 2015)

Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth

(July 2014 – March 2015)

Current Estimated


Darwin District

Katherine Region

Risks:

· None to report


Pasture Growth

(% of district)

Below Average

51%

Average

35%

Above Average

14%

<1,000kg/ha

10%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

64%

>2,000kg/ha

26%

Currently


(% of district)

Below Average

73%

Average

22%

Above Average

5%

<1,000kg/ha

11%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

84%

>3,000kg/ha

5%

Fire Risk

(% of district)

High

0%

Moderate

71%

Low

29%

Area Burnt

(% of district)

19% (since 1 July 2014)


(Running Total)


(March - May 2015)


(July 2014 – March 2015)

Current Estimated


Risks:

· None to report


Pasture Growth

(% of district)

Below Average

4%

Average

61%

Above Average

35%

<1,000kg/ha

31%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

49%

>2,000kg/ha

20%

Currently


(% of district)

Below Average

29%

Average

41%

Above Average

30%

<1,000kg/ha

7%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

63%

>3,000kg/ha

30%

Fire Risk

(% of district)

High

42%

Moderate

57%

Low

<1%

Area Burnt

(% of district)

21% (since 1 July 2014)


(Running Total)




(July 2014 – March 2015)

Current Estimated


Victoria River District

Risks:

· None to report


Pasture Growth

(% of district)

Below Average

1%

Average

63%

Above Average

36%

<1,000kg/ha

13%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

59%

>2,000kg/ha

28%

Currently


(% of district)

Below Average

17%

Average

71%

Above Average

12%

<1,000kg/ha

12%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

79%

>3,000kg/ha

9%

Fire Risk

(% of district)

High

19%

Moderate

75%

Low

6%

Area Burnt

(% of district)

38% (since 1 July 2014)


(Running Total)




(July 2014 – March 2015)

Current Estimated


Sturt Plateau District

Risks:

· None to report


Pasture Growth

(% of district)

Below Average

22%

Average

74%

Above Average

4%

<1,000kg/ha

28%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

59%

>2,000kg/ha

14%

Currently


(% of district)

Below Average

51%

Average

47%

Above Average

2%

<1,000kg/ha

12%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

75%

>3,000kg/ha

14%

Fire Risk

(% of district)

High

11%

Moderate

85%

Low

4%

Area Burnt

(% of district)

29% (since 1 July 2014)


(Running Total)


(March - May 2015)


(July 2014 – March 2015)

Current Estimated


Roper District

Risks:

· None to report


Pasture Growth

(% of district)

Below Average

6%

Average

68%

Above Average

25%

<1,000kg/ha

24%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha

60%

>2,000kg/ha

16%

Currently


(% of district)

Below Average

25%

Average

59%

Above Average

16%

<1,000kg/ha

9%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha

66%

>3,000kg/ha

26%

Fire Risk

(% of district)

High

39%

Moderate

58%

Low

3%

Area Burnt

(% of district)

24% (since 1 July 2014)


(Running Total)




(July 2014 – March 2015)

Current Estimated


Gulf District

Risks:

· The majority of the district’s south eastern corner has had less than 500kg/ha of pasture growth


Pasture Growth

(% of district)

Below Average

<1%

Average

37%

Above Average

63%

<500kg/ha

23%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha

49%

>1,000kg/ha

28%

Currently


(% of district)

Below Average

5%

Average

54%

Above Average

41%

<500kg/ha

15%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha

27%

>1,000kg/ha

57%

Fire Risk

(% of district)

High

50%

Moderate

49%

Low

1%

Area Burnt

(% of district)

3% (since 1 July 2014)


(Running Total)


(March - May 2015)


(July 2014 – March 2015)

Current Estimated


Barkly District

Risks:

· None to report


Pasture Growth

(% of district)

Below Average

0%

Average

47%

Above Average

53%

<250kg/ha

28%

>250 & <500kg/ha

33%

>500kg/ha

39%

Currently


(% of district)

Below Average

21%

Average

57%

Above Average

22%

<500kg/ha

16%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha

23%

>1,000kg/ha

61%

Fire Risk

(% of district)

High

68%

Moderate

31%

Low

<1%

Area Burnt

(% of district)

<1% (since 1 July 2014)


(Running Total)




(July 2014 – March 2015)

Current Estimated


Tennant Creek District

Risks:

· None to report

2014/15 Season (as at 1 March 2015)

Pasture Growth

(% of district)

Below Average

<1%

Average

28%

Above Average

72%

<250kg/ha

16%

>250 & <500kg/ha

24%

>500kg/ha

60%

Currently


(% of district)

Below Average

5%

Average

62%

Above Average

33%

<250kg/ha

3%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha

27%

>1,000kg/ha

70%

Fire Risk

(% of district)

High

81%

Moderate

17%

Low

2%

Area Burnt

(% of district)

<1% (since 1 July 2014)


(Running Total)


(March - May 2015)


(July 2014 – March 2015)

Current Estimated


Northern Alice Springs District

Risks:

· The district has experienced consecutive poor seasons. Both the 2012/13 and the 2013/14 seasons were well below average. Pasture growth during the past quarter has reduced the district area with below average total standing dry matter from 49% to 18%, and the area with extremely low levels from 29% to 15% (<250kg/ha).

2014/15 Season (as at 1 March 2015)

Pasture Growth

(% of district)

Below Average

0%

Average

81%

Above Average

19%

<250kg/ha

70%

>250 & <500kg/ha

25%

>500kg/ha

5%

Currently


(% of district)

Below Average

18%

Average

79%

Above Average

3%

<250kg/ha

15%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha

65%

>1,000kg/ha

20%

Fire Risk

(% of district)

High

57%

Moderate

39%

Low

4%

Area Burnt

(% of district)

0% (since 1 July 2014)


(Running Total)




(July 2014 – March 2015)

Current Estimated


Plenty District

Risks:

· None to report

2014/15 Season (as at 1 March 2015

Pasture Growth

(% of district)

Below Average

2%

Average

90%

Above Average

8%

<250kg/ha

81%

>250 & <500kg/ha

15%

>500kg/ha

4%

Currently


(% of district)

Below Average

14%

Average

73%

Above Average

13%

<250kg/ha

7%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha

63%

>1,000kg/ha

30%

Fire Risk

(% of district)

High

78%

Moderate

21%

Low

1%

Area Burnt

(% of district)

<1% (since 1 July 2014)


(Running Total)


(March to May 2015)


(July 2014 – March 2015)

Current Estimated


Southern Alice Springs District

Pasture Information

The pasture and fire risk information in this document is derived from AussieGRASS. AussieGRASS is a model that simulates pasture growth and standing biomass using climate data, vegetation mapping, fire history and regional estimates of grazing pressure. The model can be used to track simulated pasture growth and total standing pasture biomass at the landscape scale.

Note that the model does not use stocking rate data for individual properties. Where stock numbers are significantly higher or lower than typical for a district, model estimates of total standing dry matter may be erroneous.

Disclaimer

While all care has been taken to ensure that information contained in this document is true and correct at the time of production, changes in circumstances after the time of distribution may impact on the accuracy of its information. The Northern Territory of Australia gives no warranty or assurance, and makes no representation as to the accuracy of any information or advice contained herein, or that it is suitable for your intended use.

You should not rely upon information in this document for the purpose of making any business or investment decisions without obtaining independent and/or professional advice in relation to your particular situation.

The Northern Territory of Australia disclaims any liability or responsibility or duty of care towards any person for loss of damage caused by any use of or reliance on this information.

DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY AND FISHERIES

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