comparison of infiltration models to simulate flood events at the field scale
TRANSCRIPT
Comparison of infiltration models to simulate flood events
at the field scale
Nanee Chahinian*, Roger Moussa, Patrick Andrieux, Marc Voltz
Laboratoire d’etude des Interactions Sol-Agrosysteme-Hydrosysteme, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA),
UMR INRA-ENSAM-IRD, 2 Place Pierre Viala, 34060 Montpellier Cedex 1, France
Received 21 July 2003; revised 17 August 2004; accepted 10 September 2004
Abstract
Most runoff simulation and infiltration models have been developed at the global-catchment scale or the local-soil column
scale. Few models have been specifically developed at the scale of agricultural fields and there are no guidelines to help
modellers choose an adequate model to simulate overland flow and hence analyse the impact of different soil management
practices on flood generation. A comparison is undertaken to select and calibrate models that simulate Hortonian overland flow
at the field or small plot scale. The proposed methodology couples a runoff production model to a unit hydrograph transfer
function. Four different models were tested: Philip, Morel-Seytoux, Horton and SCS. These models differ by their mathematical
structure and the parameters to be calibrated while input hydrologic data are the same site data: rainfall/runoff and initial water
content. The models are calibrated on 14 events and validated on 14 others. The results of both the calibration and validation
phases are compared on the basis of their performance with regards to six objective criteria, three global criteria and three
relative criteria representing volume, peakflow, and the root mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to
strong events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter
values are dependent on the type of objective criteria used. Furthermore, when analysing the performance of the six objective
criteria used, it can be seen that the global volume, global RMSE and relative peakflow criteria give the best compromise
between bias and precision. Within the selected modelling framework, Morel-Seytoux’s model performed better than the other
three and the SCS gave the worst results. Horton’s model showed to be more consistent in overall performance than Philip’s
model. Results also highlight problems related to the simulation of low flow events and intermittent rainfall events.
q 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Infiltration model; Runoff; Field scale; Model calibration
0022-1694/$ - see front matter q 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.09.009
* Corresponding author. Tel.: C33 4 99 61 25 50; fax: C33 4 67
63 26 14.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (N. Chahinian),
[email protected] (R. Moussa), [email protected]
(P. Andrieux), [email protected] (M. Voltz).
1. Introduction
Flood protection, water quality and water manage-
ment schemes require a good understanding
and accurate modelling of runoff at the local scale.
It is common for hydrologists to work at the
Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214
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N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214192
scale of individual storm events (e.g. Bates and
Ganeshanandam, 1990; Zarriello, 1998; Moussa et al.,
2002; Jain and Indurthy, 2003). The first important
challenge that awaits the modeller in this task is to
choose a rainfall–runoff model that can accurately
simulate a wide variety of flood events.
Most runoff simulation models transform the
infiltration excess into runoff. This operation is done
either using physically based models (e.g. Green and
Ampt, 1911; Richards, 1931; Philip, 1957; Morel-
Seytoux, 1978; Haverkamp et al., 1990; Corradini
et al., 1994), conceptual models (e.g. Nash, 1957;
Diskin and Nazimov, 1995), or empirical relations
(e.g. Horton, 1933; Holtan, 1961; Soil Conservation
Service, 1972). Once the rainfall input is divided
between infiltration and runoff, a transfer function is
used to route the excess water to the outlet of the
hydrological unit. Transfer functions can range from
‘simple’ unit hydrographs (Sherman, 1932) to more
complex formulations such as the kinematic
or diffusive wave equations (Ponce and Simons,
1977; Ponce, 1990; Singh, 1994), or the complete
Saint-Venant (1871) equations.
Runoff simulation models have been developed
either directly at a global-catchment scale (e.g. SCS,
1972; Diskin and Nazimov, 1995) or use infiltration
models developed at the local scale of soil columns
(Green and Ampt, 1911; Richards, 1931; Haverkamp
et al., 1990). Few models were specifically designed
for the field scale. In the context of the distributed
hydrological modelling of farmed catchments, the
field is the largest homogeneous unit with regard to
crop type and soil surface conditions. Therefore, some
authors tried to adapt existing models to this particular
scale (Esteves et al., 2000; Joel et al., 2002). Yet,
unlike the soil column (Haverkamp et al., 1988; Navar
and Synnott, 2000; Mishra et al., 2003) and the
catchment scales for which model comparison
guidelines (Klemes, 1986) and examples can be
found in the literature (e.g. Loague, 1992; Chiew
et al., 1993; Michaud and Sorooshian, 1994;
Refsgaard and Knudsen, 1996; Donnelly-Makowecki
and Moore, 1999), to our knowledge no comparisons
seem to be available for the scale of agricultural plots.
The objective of this paper is to compare the
performance of four widely used runoff simulation
models on flood events measured at the scale of a
1200 m2 field in Southern France. The chosen models
correspond to the three major model categories found
commonly in the literature: two physically based
models (Philip, 1957; Morel-Seytoux, 1978), a
conceptual model (Horton, 1933) and the simple
SCS (1972) model. All four models need rainfall
intensity and initial water content as inputs. They
differ by their structure, their parameters and the way
their initial conditions are related to observed soil
water content. These models were selected because of
their reduced number of parameters and their wide use
in hydrological models: Morel-Seytoux’s model is a
modification of the famous Green and Ampt equation
used in WEPP (Flanagan and Nearing, 1995),
ANSWERS (Beasley and Huggins, 1982), CREAMS
(Knisel, 1980) and is similar to the infiltration
function used in KINEROS (Woolhiser et al., 1990).
Philip’s model is used in WATFLOOD (Kouwen,
2001) and HYSIM (Manley, 1982). Horton’s model is
used in MARINE (Estupina-Borrell et al., 2002) and
SWMM (Huber and Dickinson, 1988). SCS is used in
SWIM (Krysanova et al., 2000), SWAT (Arnold et al.,
1995), CREAMS (Knisel, 1980) and HEC1 (Hydro-
logic Engineering Center, 1990).
The chosen rainfall/runoff models separate rainfall
hyetographs into infiltration and runoff which is
routed to the field outlet using a unit hydrograph
based on a resolution of the diffusive wave equation
(Moussa and Bocquillon, 1996). The models are
calibrated and compared according to six objective
criteria: (i) global volume conservation, (ii) relative
volume conservation, (iii) global peakflow conserva-
tion, (iv) relative peakflow conservation, (v) global
root mean square error (RMSE), (vi) relative RMSE.
The paper is organised in four sections: (i)
presentation of the four models; (ii) formulation of
the objective criteria; (iii) presentation of the study
zone, and (iv) analysis of the performance of the
infiltration models.
2. Infiltration–runoff models
The modelling approach followed herein will be
global at the scale of the study plot, which will be
considered as one entity represented by average
values of soil moisture content and soil hydrodynamic
properties. The output of the model will be a
simulated hydrograph which will be compared to
Fig. 1. Example of separation of rainfall hyetograph into infiltration and rainfall excess (runoff); f(t) represents the potential infiltration
(e.g. event of 31/8/1994).
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214 193
the original measured hydrograph to assess model
performance.
To allow comparative tests between the infiltration
equations and experimental measures, the infiltration
process is considered to be one-dimensional where
F(t) [L] is the cumulative infiltration (expressed per
unit soil surface) and f(t) [LTK1] is the potential
infiltration rate at the soil surface defined as (Fig. 1)
f ðtÞ ZdFðtÞ
dtand FðtÞ Z
ðt
0f ðtÞdt (1)
where t [T] represents time. If water is ponded on the
surface, the infiltration occurs at the potential
infiltration rate. The runoff or rainfall excess re(t)
[LTK1] and the infiltration rates I(t), at any time t,
depend on the value of f(t), and on the value of rainfall
intensity R(t) [LTK1], at the time considered (Fig. 1)
if RðtÞ! f ðtÞ0 IðtÞ Z RðtÞ and reðtÞ Z 0 (2)
if RðtÞO f ðtÞ0 IðtÞ Z f ðtÞ and reðtÞ Z RðtÞK f ðtÞ
(3)
Many factors influence the potential infiltration
rate, including the soil surface features, the proportion
of soil covered by vegetation, the current water content
q [L3LK3], the soil hydrodynamic properties, namely,
the saturated hydraulic conductivity Ks [LTK1],
the hydraulic conductivity–soil moisture relation
K(q) [LTK1], the soil retention curve J(q) [L], and
the initial water content at the beginning of the rainfall
event qi [L3LK3]. All infiltration models integrate this
information using various parameters and variables
whose values need to be determined either by
measurements or calibration. We deliberately chose
to reduce the number of calibrated parameters in this
study to reduce calculation times and non-uniqueness
problems. The number of calibrated parameters was
set to three at the utmost. They were identified after a
sensitivity analysis: for each model only the most
‘influential’ parameters were selected for calibration
and the remaining ‘secondary’ parameters were
predicted according to the soil texture of the plot.
2.1. Morel-Seytoux’s equation
Morel-Seytoux’s (1978) equation is a modification
of Green and Ampt’s (1911) equation. The basic
principle is the same, however, having realised that
Green and Ampt’s (1911) formulation neglects the
influence of the capillary drive on the shape of the
moisture profile and the simultaneous presence of
water and air fluxes in the profile, a new viscous
correction parameter (b) is introduced by Morel-
Seytoux and Khanji (1974). The value of this
parameter varies usually between 1 and 1.7 and is
generally fixed at 1.3.
The model is based on the ponding time concept:
runoff cannot occur as long as the soil surface
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214194
retention potential is not met. Therefore, at every time
step, the model needs to determine whether the
ponding time (tp) has been reached. For tOtp the
cumulative infiltration F(t) at time t, is calculated
from
FðtÞKFp K Sf CFp 1 K1
b
� �� �ln
Sf CFðtÞ
Sf CFp
� �
ZKsðt K tpÞ
b(4)
where Fp [L] is the cumulative infiltration when
ponding occurs, and Sf [L] is a storage and suction
factor that can be expressed as a function of the soil
hydraulic properties (Morel-Seytoux, 1978)
Sf Z ðqs KqiÞHc 1 K1
3
qi Kqr
qs Kqr
� �6� �(5)
with Hc [L] the capillary height, qs [L3LK3] the
volumetric soil water content at saturation and qr
[L3LK3] the volumetric residual soil water content.
Morel-Seytoux’s model is function of the parameters
Ks, Hc, b, qs and qr, and of the initial condition qi. The
parameters qs and qr are determined by soil water
content measurements, b is set to 1.3 as suggested by
Morel-Seytoux and Khanji (1974) and the parameters
Ks and Hc will be calibrated.
2.2. Philip’s equation
Philip (1957) solved Richard’s equation under
some restrictive conditions, to yield an infinite series
for infiltration f(t) which is approximated by
f ðtÞ Z1
2StKð1=2Þ C
2
3Ks (6)
where S [LTK0.5] is a parameter called sorptivity,
which depends on the soil water potential. Sorptivity
is determined by Smith et al.’ (1993) equation
½SðqiÞ�2 Z 2ðqs KqiÞ
ðqs
qi
KðqÞdJ
dq
� �dq (7)
In this study K(q) is assumed to fit Brooks and
Corey (1964) model and J(q) the relation derived
by Smith et al. (1993) which is an extension of
Van Genuchten’s (1980) equation
KðqÞ Z Ks
q Kqr
qs Kqr
� �bCða=lÞ
(8)
JðqÞ Z Jb
q Kqr
qs Kqr
� �Kðc=lÞ
K1
" #1=c
(9)
where Jb [L] is the air entry potential, and a, b, c and
l are dimensionless coefficients.
In summary, Philip’s model is function of the
parameters Ks, Jb, c, d, l, qs and qr, and the initial
condition qi. According to Burdine’s method (Brooks
and Corey, 1964; Smith et al., 1993) aZ2 and bZ3.
The other parameters depend on the soil properties.
The parameters c and l are considered constant for all
events and predicted from soil texture as in Smith
et al. (1993), qs and qr are measured and Ks and Jb
will be calibrated.
2.3. Horton’s equation
One of the earliest infiltration equations was
developed by Horton (1933), who observed that
infiltration begins at some rate f0 and exponentially
decreases until it reaches a constant rate fc. Horton’s
infiltration equation is
f ðtÞ Z fc C ðf0 K fcÞeKkt (10)
where k [TK1] is a decay constant, fc [LTK1] is the
minimum infiltration capacity and f0 [LTK1] is the
infiltration rate at time tZ0. Although empirical in
nature, fc refers to the same soil characteristic as the
saturated hydraulic conductivity Ks, while fr rep-
resents the infiltration rate of the plot under dry
conditions corresponding to qiZqr. It is a pre-requisite
of the calibration algorithm that frOfc. The initial
infiltration capacity f0 was related to the initial soil
moisture condition qi using a simple linear relation
f0 Z ðfc K frÞqi Kqr
qs Kqr
C fr: (11)
As Horton’s model is empirical in nature, all three
parameters, fc, fr and k, will be calibrated.
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214 195
2.4. The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) equation
The Soil Conservation Service (1972) method
gives an empirical relation between the depth of
excess precipitation or direct runoff Pe [L] and the
depth of precipitation P [L] after runoff begins
Pe ZðP K0:2SÞ2
P C0:8S(12)
F Z P KPe (13)
where F [L] is the total infiltration depth and S [L]
represents the soil retention capacity. For each time
step, the overall sum of rainfall P is calculated and by
replacing it in Eqs. (12) and (13), Pe and F are
deduced. Plotting the data for P and Pe from various
US catchments, the SCS derived curves. To standar-
dise these curves, a dimensionless curve number CN
is defined such that 0%CN%100. The curve number
CN and S are related by
S Z1000
CNK10 (14)
where S is in inches. There are no parameters to be
calibrated. Only the curve number varies for each flood
event according to the 5-day antecedent rainfall that
defines three antecedent moisture condition classes
(dry, normal and wet) according to the season (dormant
season or growing season) (Chow et al., 1988).
This model has no parameters to be calibrated.
However, in some modelling applications it has been
calibrated (Michaud and Sorooshian, 1994; Wilcox
et al., 1990), therefore, we chose to test the
performance of the model in these two configurations,
first in direct simulation considered as a reference, and
then with a calibration phase. For the direct simulation
mode calculations, antecedent moisture conditions
were calculated both according to the 5-day ante-
cedent rainfall and to the soil moisture measurements.
However, when using the model in calibration mode,
only the soil moisture measurements were taken into
account and linked to the S parameter using a linear
relationship
S Z ðSs KSrÞqi Kqr
qs Kqr
� �� �CSr (15)
where Sr [L] and Ss [L] are, respectively, the soil’s
storage capacity for qiZqr and qiZqs. Despite their
physical meaning, these two parameters are empirical
in nature and will have to be calibrated.
3. Formulation of calibration criteria
The objective of model calibration is to select
parameter values so that the model simulates the
measured hydrograph as closely as possible. The
quality of the data and the simplifications and errors
inherent to the model structure also put limitations on
how ‘closely’ the model is actually able to simulate
the hydrograph. A calibration scheme can include
optimisation of multiple objectives that measure
different aspects of the hydrological response of a
unit (Madsen, 2000).
(i)
A good agreement between the average simu-lated and observed runoff volume (i.e. a good
water balance).
(ii)
A good agreement of the peak flows.(iii)
A good overall agreement of the shape of thehydrograph.
In this respect, it is important to note that, in
general, trade-offs exist between the different objec-
tives. For instance, one may find a set of parameters
that provides a very good simulation of volume but a
poor simulation of the hydrograph shape or peak flow,
and vice versa. In order to obtain a successful
calibration by using automatic optimisation routines,
it is necessary to formulate numerical performance
measures or objective criteria that reflect the cali-
bration objectives. This can be done by considering
the calibration problem in a multi-objective frame-
work (Yapo et al., 1998; Madsen, 2000).
The objective criteria used in this study can be
divided in two broad categories: global and relative
(Table 1). Given the diversity of flood events to be
modelled such an approach was deemed necessary as
the first type of objective criteria gives more weight to
strong events whereas the second considers all events
to be of equal weight. For each category, three different
objective criteria were considered: volume conserva-
tion which is important for dimensioning problems,
peakflow reproduction which is essential for flood and
solute transport applications and the root mean square
error (RMSE) as a measure of the global agreement
Table 1
Objective criteria used
Objective criteria Equation Domain of application Optimum
Global volume [L]PN
iZ1ðLsiKLoiÞPN
iZ1ni
[0;CN[ 0
Relative volume [ ] 1N
PNiZ1
LsiKLoi
Loi
[0;CN[ 0
Global RMSE [L3TK1]PN
iZ1
PnijZ1
QoijKQsijð Þ2PN
iZ1ni
� �1=2 [0;CN[ 0
Relative RMSE [L3.TK1]1N
PNiZ1
PnijZ1
ðQoijKQsijÞ2
ni
� �1=2 [0;CN[ 0
Global peakflow [L3TK1] 1N
PNiZ1 jðQxsi KQxoiÞj [0;CN[ 0
Relative peakflow [ ] 1N
PNiZ1
QxsiKQxoi
Qxoi
[0;CN[ 0
dt time step [T]
A field area [L2]
N the total number of flood events used for calibration
i index representing a flood event 1%i%N
ni number of time steps in the flood event i
j index representing the time step in a flood event i 1%j%ni
Loi observed runoff depth for event i Loi ZPni
jZ1 QoijdtA
�[L]
Lsi simulated runoff depth for event i Lsi ZPni
jZ1 QsijdtA
�[L]
Qoij observed discharge at time j in the flood event i [L3T-1]
Qsij simulated discharge at time j on the flood event i [L3TK1]
Qxoi observed peak flow of discharge in the flood event i ðQxoi Zmax1%j%niðQoijÞÞ [L3.T-1]
Qxsi simulated peak flow of discharge in the flood event i ðQxsi Zmax1%j%niðQsijÞÞ [L3TK1].
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214196
between the simulated and observed curves. It should
be noted that the RMSE objective criteria gives similar
optimal parameters as the widely used Nash and
Sutcliffe (1970) efficiency measure. These functions
include both relative and absolute error measures as
suggested by Legates and McCabe (1999). The six
objective criteria were considered separately and a
grid-based calibration procedure was undertaken with
each. No automatic search was carried out to locate the
optimum, instead over 7000 simulations were run for
each model using a progressively finer grid. The best
results, i.e. those closest to the optimum of each
objective function were retained.
4. The study zone
This section presents: (i) the main characteristics of
the studied field, (ii) the hydraulic properties of
the soil and the estimated fixed values of parameters
used in Morel-Seytoux’s and Philip’s models, (iii) the
hydrologic characteristics of rainfall/runoff events,
the determination of initial soil moisture conditions
and (iv) the estimation of the transfer function.
4.1. Description of the study site and its monitoring
design
The study field is located on the Roujan experimen-
tal catchment in Southern France (40830 0N, 3819 0E)
and is operated by the French National Institute for
Agricultural Research (INRA) (Andrieux et al., 1993;
Voltz et al., 1998). The catchment has a Mediterranean
climate with a dry summer season characterised by
high intensity and short duration storms causing
Hortonian overland flow. Rainfall has thus a bimodal
temporal distribution with two major rainy periods, one
in spring and another in autumn. However, strong inter-
and intra-annual variations of rainfall can be observed
on the data collected since 1992.
Hydrologic data are measured on a 1200 m2 field
(mean length of 60 m, mean width of 20 m, slope
between 7 and 15%, orientation SW/NE). The crop is
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214 197
vine with no grass cover. The field is equipped with a
0.5 mm tipping-bucket rainfall gauge (model 91
SERPE-TESM, Rennes, France) and a Venturi flume
(Techniflow, Echirolles, France) coupled with a
capacitive water level sensor (model CCI, SERPE-
TESM, Rennes, France) and a data logger (model
Chloe D, SERPE-TESM, Rennes, France). In the
flume, the water level measurements are made every
minute and only variations equal or greater than
0.005 m are recorded. Soil moisture is monitored by
means of a Time Domain Reflectometer (TDR), over
a 0.2 m depth at three locations in the field. These are
coupled with gravimetric soil water measurements. At
each location, three readings are taken along and
between the vine rows and averaged to get a mean
value per measurement site.
A ditch isolates the field from all external water
input and as the absence of groundwater contribution
has been confirmed by hydrogeological investigations,
it can be assumed that runoff is the direct consequence
of excess rainfall. On certain events, runoff can amount
up to 70% of rainfall (Andrieux et al., 1996). The
fast response time of the field to rainfall (approxi-
mately 2–4 min) is in accordance with these findings.
4.2. Determination of the soil hydraulic properties
The soil of the plot is a calcisol (WRB, 1998). Its
texture is silty sand with a low organic matter content
(less than 2%) and the topsoil exhibits a grained
structure. The experimental field is not tilled and
weeding is done by chemical means. This practice
induces the formation of a crust on the soil surface,
which restricts the infiltration capacity of the soil.
Surface water detention is very small and can be
neglected. Measurements of steady-state infiltration
rates were done by in situ rainfall simulation at a
1 m2 scale under 35 mm hK1 rainfall intensity for
30 min. The observed infiltration capacity was of
7.8 mm hK1 (Leonard and Andrieux, 1998). Rainfall
interception by vine leaves was found to be
negligible (Guaita-Llabata, 2001).
First, the SCS model was used in direct simulation
mode as a reference. The antecedent moisture con-
ditions (AMC) were calculated both according to the
5-day antecedent rainfall and the measured soil water
contents according to three classes (qi!0.15 m3 mK3
corresponds to AMC I, 0.15%qi%0.3 m3 mK3
corresponds to AMC II and qiR0.3 m3 mK3 corre-
sponds to AMC III). When using the soil water content
measurements, no differentiation was done between the
dormant and the vegetative season as the measurements
are thought to integrate this information already.
Then, all four models were calibrated. When
calibrating Morel-Seytoux’s and Philip’s models, it
was necessary to define a minimum and a maximum
value for each of the parameters, in order to keep the
calibrated values within a range that is physically
acceptable and consistent with field observations.
Using the properties of a silty sand soil (Smith et al.,
1993), the following parameter ranges were set
(Table 2):
–
Morel-Seytoux’s model: Ks and Hc were calibratedwithin the following ranges 0.5 mm hK1!Ks!50 mm hK1 and 25 mm!Hc!900 mm.
–
Philip’s model: the parameters were set as follows:cZ5, dZ0, lZ0.4; Ks and Jb were calibrated
within the following ranges 0.5 mm hK1!Ks!50 mm hK1 and K950 mm!Jb!K25 mm.
–
Horton’s model: the k, fr and fc parameters werecalibrated within the following ranges 0.5!k!10;
0.5 mm hK1!fc!20 mm hK1; 0.5 mm hK1!fr!80 mm hK1 with the condition frOfc.
For all three models qs and qr are based on field
data: qsZ0.35 and qrZ0.03.
–
The SCS model: Sr and Ss were calibrated withinthe following range [1 mm;800 mm].
Note that the presence of the surface crust has not
been specifically accounted for as a numerical
simulation of an infiltration test on the field showed
that a two-layer approach does not significantly
improve the simulation of overland flow (Chahinian
et al., 2003).
4.3. Characteristics of the studied flood events
4.3.1. Selected events
Flood events were selected based on three criteria:
–
Rainfall is larger than 10 mm/day.–
Rainfall is continuous. If rainfall stopped for morethan 1.5 h during a particular flood event, only
Table 2
Parameters and initial conditions for the four tested models
Parameter and variables Model
Morel-Seytoux Philip Horton SCS
Values of model parameters
fixed a priori
b 1.3 – – –
qs (mm3 mmK3) 0.35 0.35 0.35 –
qr (mm3 mmK3) 0.03 0.03 0.03 –
c – 5 – –
d – 0 – –
l – 0.4 – –
a – – – 0.2
Ks (mm hK1) [0.5,50] [0.5,50] – –
Admitted interval of variation
of the parameters to be
calibrated
Hc (mm) [25,900] – – –
Jb (mm) – [K900,K25] – –
fc (mm hK1) – – [0.5,20] –
fr (mm hK1) – – [15,90] –
k – – [0.2,10] –
Sr (mm) – – – [1,800]
Ss (mm) – – – [1,800]
Type of initial condition Measured qi Measured qi f0 related
to qi
using
Eq. (11)
Curve number related to the
5-day antecedent rainfall or
measured qi
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214198
the pre-hiatus part is considered for modelling.
This criterion is taken to avoid soil drainage and
soil moisture re-distribution problems.
–
Soil moisture measurements are available prior tothe flood event: a maximum lag of 14 days is
accepted between the soil moisture measurement
date and the flood date provided no significant
amount of rainfall was recorded in the meanwhile.
Although this time period may seem long regard-
ing wet climates, it is fairly reasonable under
Mediterranean conditions, specially when evapor-
ation and minor rainfall spells (!3 mm) have been
accounted for using Ritchie’s (1972) evaporation
model as detailed in Section 4.3.2 and Appendix A.
In total, 28 events were retained. Their character-
istics are given in Table 3. The duration of the events
ranges between 0.5 and 16 h, total rainfall ranges
between 13 and 133 mm, the maximum rainfall
intensity over 1 min ranges between 6 and
149 mm hK1, peakflow ranges between 0.7 and
37.7 L sK1, and the runoff coefficient between 11
and 64%. Note the extreme temporal variation of both
rainfall and runoff coefficients. Fig. 2 shows the
relations between the total rainfall, the total runoff
depth, runoff coefficient and peakflow. No clear
correlation can be seen between the runoff coefficients
and rainfall or between the total rainfall depth and
peakflow, i.e. the most important rainfall events in
terms of precipitation volume are not necessarily
those that have the highest runoff coefficient or that
induce the highest peakflow. This finding is typical of
Mediterranean climatic conditions, where during
summer, short duration and high intensity rainfall
events are often the cause of the most important runoff
events in terms of both runoff depth and peakflow.
This can occur despite the relatively dry initial
conditions encountered during the summer.
Fourteen events were randomly chosen for cali-
bration and the remaining 14 were used for validation
(Table 3). Both data sets are representative of the
various hydrological behaviours observed on the
study plot: they cover all climatic seasons and display
a large spectrum of rainfall intensity, peakflow and
runoff coefficient values.
4.3.2. Initial water content
The soil moisture measurement dates do not
necessarily match flood event dates. Although initially
a maximum lag of 14 days is accepted between the soil
moisture measurement date and the flood date, 19
events had a lag time inferior to 4 days, six events had
Table 3
Characteristics of the studied flood events of the experimental field at Roujan
Date Total
rainfall
(mm)
Maximum rain-
fall intensity
over 1 min
(mm hK1)
Peak-
flow
(L sK1)
Total runoff
depth (mm)
Runoff
coefficient
(%)
Initial soil water
content, qi
(mm3 mmK3)
Calibration (C)
or validation
(V) events
14/08/1993 24.4 126.2 10.8 4.1 16.6 0.10 C
24/08/1993 11.5 51.4 5.0 1.8 15.6 0.27 V
14/02/1994 50.5 19.6 1.6 7.3 14.2 0.30 C
31/08/1994 36.5 133.9 25.9 17.4 47.7 0.04 V
08/09/1994 15.0 67.4 7.8 4.7 31.5 0.11 C
22/09/1994 30.5 31.2 4.6 9.3 30.4 0.20 V
29/09/1994 21.0 29.7 4.1 5.2 25.0 0.25 C
19/10/1994 131.9 64.7 18.7 69.7 52.8 0.26 V
04/11/1994 41.0 122.5 20.7 23.4 59.3 0.33 C
06/08/1995 21.9 85.6 30.1 13.0 64.4 0.09 V
22/11/1995 22.0 17.1 1.9 2.5 11.4 0.22 C
15/12/1995 33.5 8.2 1.1 3.9 11.7 0.29 V
12/01/1996 28.5 5.8 1.6 9.6 33.7 0.33 C
01/02/1996 30.5 10.3 1.8 16.3 53.3 0.34 V
14/03/1996 20.0 5.7 1.1 5.3 26.6 0.30 C
22/04/1996 6.0 16.2 2.2 1.7 28.3 0.29 V
07/05/1996 15.0 16.4 2.5 5.5 27.4 0.31 C
01/06/1996 13.9 38.1 3.1 2.3 16.2 0.23 V
05/07/1996 14.3 96.3 22.3 3.9 27.4 0.14 C
17/09/1996 39.0 66.2 33.6 14.7 37.8 0.11 V
19/09/1996 26.0 38.3 9.2 11.5 44.4 0.26 C
13/10/1996 18.0 45.8 3.9 5.1 28.2 0.15 V
16/11/1996 9.0 12.3 1.4 2.6 29.4 0.21 C
05/06/1997 24.5 51.6 10.4 9.5 38.6 0.32 V
06/10/1997 32.5 148.8 37.7 16.9 52.1 0.03 C
03/11/1997 69.5 75.1 13.9 36.2 52.1 0.23 V
16/12/1997 43.5 17.1 3.1 10.8 24.8 0.34 C
26/04/1998 23.0 10.6 0.7 3.7 16.2 0.18 V
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214 199
a lag time between 5 and 7 days, and only three events
had a lag time between 8 and 14 days.
Therefore, to estimate the initial water content, qi,
on the date of the flood event, we used Ritchie’s
model (1972) to predict the actual evaporation flux
between the measurement date and the start of the
flood event and subtracted the corresponding quan-
tity of water from the observed soil water store (for
more details see appendix 1). Ritchie’s model was
selected over the Penmann–Monteith formulation
because it was specifically developed for row plant
cover, does not require aerodynamic parameters to
be determined and was already calibrated on the
study site in a previous study (Trambouze, 1996).
Corrections for minor rainfall events, i.e. indepen-
dent spells inferior to 3 mm were also made using
the same model.
The soil water content values calculated using
Ritchie’s model were used as the initial conditions of
all four infiltration models (Table 3).
4.3.3. Response time and transfer function
Infiltration models can be assimilated to
‘production functions’ as they allow the calculation
of the fraction of non-infiltrated water or rainfall
excess. However, they do not account for the runoff
process. Therefore, it is necessary to use a transfer
function to route the rainfall excess to the outlet of
the hydrological unit.
A linear unit hydrograph model, based on a
Hayami (1951) kernel function, which is a resolution
of the diffusive wave equation, was used to simulate
the transfer of the excess rainfall re(t) to the outlet
(Moussa and Bocquillon, 1996). Let I(t) [L3TK1] be
Fig. 2. Relationships between total rainfall, total runoff and runoff
coefficient for the calibration and validation events.
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214200
the input hydrograph
IðtÞ Z reðtÞA (16)
where A [L2] is the field area. Let O(t) be the routed
hydrograph at the outlet
OðtÞ Z
ðt
0IðtÞHðt KtÞdt (17)
with H(t) the Hayami kernel function defined as
HðtÞ Zuz
p
�1=2 expz 2Kðt=uÞKðu=tÞð Þ
ðtÞ3=2with
ðN
0HðtÞdt Z 1
(18)
where u [T] is a time parameter that represents the
centre of gravity of the unit hydrograph, z [dimension-
less] a form parameter, pZ3.1416 and t the time [T].
The two parameters u and z are calculated from the
analysis of measured hydrographs and are considered
constant for all applications. The mean response time
of the events varies between 2 and 4 min. Therefore,
the Hayami kernel parameters u and z were set to 3
and 1, respectively, implying a mean response time of
3 min and a total unit hydrograph duration of 6 min.
5. Analysis of the performance of the infiltration
models
The SCS model was used as a reference, without
calibration, i.e. in direct simulation mode. Fig. 3
shows the results of the simulations for all 28 events.
The reference model did not produce good simu-
lations. This finding is concordant with that of
Zarriello (1998) whose comparison showed that out
of the nine rainfall–runoff models tested at the scale of
two small urban catchments, those based on the SCS
curve number had the poorest fit. Michaud and
Sorooshian (1994) also noted a poor performance of
the uncalibrated SCS model on the Walnut Gulch
catchment. However, they noted an improvement of
the results with calibration. Therefore, we decided to
submit the SCS model to a calibration process as well.
This section details the performance of the models
during the calibration and validation phases.
5.1. Calibration phase
5.1.1. Calibrated parameter values
The values of the calibrated parameters of the four
models are presented in Table 4 for each performance
criteria. The comparison of the calibrated parameters
of Philip’s and Morel-Seytoux’s models shows
important similarities. This is not surprising as both
models are approximations of Richards’ equation and
refer to similar physical concepts. The calibrated
saturated hydraulic conductivities Ks for the Morel-
Seytoux and Philip models vary in a similar range of
values, namely between 3 and 7.4 mm hK1. This is
also true for the air entry pressure Hc in Morel-
Seytoux’s model and its negative counterpart KJb,
the capillary height in Philip’s model (Morel-Seytoux
Fig. 3. Comparison of observed and calculated runoff depths, and of observed and calculated peakflows for the SCS model under two soil
conditions (soil with good conservation and soil with bas conservation) and using two methods to calculate antecedent moisture conditions (the
first is based on 5-day antecedent rain and the second is linked to the measured initial water content q).
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214 201
et al., 1996), with values varying between K50 and
K400 mm. For Horton’s model, the exponent k varies
between 2.6 and 8.0 and the minimum infiltrability fcvaries between 4 and 7.5 mm hK1. The maximum
Table 4
Calibrated parameter values corresponding for all models and objective c
Objective criteria Morel-Seytoux Philip
Ks
(mm hK1)
Hc
(mm)
Ks
(mm hK1)
Jb
(mm)
Global volume 4.2 168 3 K126
Relative volume 4.2 161 4.3 K83
Global RMSE 4.6 337 3 K710
Relative RMSE 4.6 333 3.5 K400
Global peakflow 7 59 7.4 K45
Relative peakflow 7 52 6.7 K49
infiltrability fr values vary between 50 and 80 mm hK1
as it is a pre-requisite of the calibration algorithm that
frOfc. The fc values are within the range of general
estimates made by Maidment (1993), however, k is
riteria
Horton SCS
k fc(mm hK1)
fr(mm hK1)
Sr
(mm)
Ss
(mm)
5.2 5.5 50 1 60
2.6 4 80 20 60
4.4 6.5 80 20 21
3.8 5.5 80 19 21
7.5 7 80 20 24
8 7 80 9 25
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214202
clearly outside that bound. Finally, it can be observed
that the calibrated values of Ks for Morel-Seytoux and
Philip, and the calibrated values of fc for Horton are
quite similar and seem to be realistic as they compare
well with the infiltrability values measured on the same
field, at a 1 m2 scale, by Leonard and Andrieux (1998).
When analysing the parameters obtained for the SCS
model, one can note that Sr and Ss values are in close
range of each other except for the volume criteria. The
maximum calibrated value of the storage capacity S
ranges between 20 and 60 mm depending on the
objective criteria. However, during Hortonian over-
land flow under Mediterranean conditions, only the
first few centimetres of the soil need to be represented.
Therefore, even if this range is thought to be
characteristic of the soil surface properties, it cannot
be compared to the S values found in the literature.
Table 4 shows that the calibrated values of the
parameters for all four models changed with the
objective criterion, especially the peakflow prediction
functions which lead to calibrated values that are
clearly different from those obtained with the volume
and RMSE objective criteria. However, it must be
pointed out that using global or relative formulations
of a given objective criterion produced very similar
results. This shows that, for the studied flood events,
the calibrated parameter values are not sensitive to
whether or not equal weight is given to the runoff
events used for calibration.
5.1.2. Calibration performances
Table 5 presents the minimal values of the
objective criteria obtained after calibration. It can be
seen that the values of a given criteria vary moderately
between the models. The global volume criterion is
equal to zero for all models whereas the relative
volume criterion ranges between 0.49 and 0.55, the
Table 5
Values of the objective criteria using the calibrated parameter values (Tab
Objective criteria Calibration phase
Morel-Seytoux Philip Horton
Global volume (mm) 0.000 0.000 0.000
Relative volume [ ] 0.494 0.538 0.497
Global peakflow [L sK1] 2.460 4.540 2.470
Relative peakflow [ ] 0.368 0.425 0.339
Global RMSE [L sK1] 0.834 1.190 0.908
Relative RMSE [L sK1] 0.949 1.090 0.940
global and relative RMSE criteria range between 0.78
and 1.19 L sK1, the global peakflow criterion between
2.5 and 4.5 L sK1, and the relative peakflow criterion
between 0.34 and 0.43. Nevertheless, there is a clear
ranking between the models. For many objective
criteria, namely global volume, relative volume and
global peakflow, Morel-Seytoux’s model produced
the smallest values of the objective criteria and hence
the best calibration results. Surprisingly, despite its
similarities with Morel-Seytoux’s approach, Philip’s
model always led to the worst calibration results,
whereas Horton’s equation performed almost as well
as Morel-Seytoux’s model and the SCS model ranked
third.
To compare the performance of the calibration
procedures made with different objective criteria, we
computed the relative error on both runoff depth and
peakflow for a combination of models and objective
criteria: for a given event i, the error on runoff depth
and peakflow are defined, respectively, by 3viZ(LsiKLoi)/Loi and 3QiZ(QxsiKQxoi)/Qxoi. Let �3V and sV
be the mean and the standard deviation of 3vi, and let
�3Q and sQ be the mean and the standard deviation of
3Qi. The quantities �3V and �3Q represent the bias of
runoff depth and peakflow predictions whereas sV and
sQ represent their precision. Fig. 4 and Table 6
illustrate the findings for Morel-Seytoux’s model, but
it must be noted that the results are similar for all four
calibrated models. Three general observations can be
made based on the analysis of these results:
–
le 4
SC
0.0
0.5
2.6
0.3
0.7
1.0
Although Fig. 4 does not show clear relations
between event volume or peakflow and error
magnitude, it must be stressed that the largest
relative errors on runoff depth and peakflow are
found for small events. This can be due in part to
the measurement uncertainties of rainfall and
) for the calibration and validation events
Validation phase
S Morel-Seytoux Philip Horton SCS
00 0.004 0.001 0.002 0.006
51 0.192 0.453 0.510 1.236
00 3.180 3.040 3.010 3.237
43 0.359 0.314 0.565 0.936
79 1.030 1.240 0.928 1.170
26 1.020 1.090 0.992 1.189
Fig
cali
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214 203
runoff, which are greater for small events than for
large events.
–
The bias and precision of volume and peakflowpredictions vary largely between the objective
criteria (Table 6). The bias is small or negligible
for the global and relative volume criteria and for
the relative peakflow criterion, whereas it is
significant for the global peakflow and the two
RMSE criteria. The precision of runoff depth
predictions is poor for the volume criterion and
good for the relative peakflow criterion while the
precision of peakflow predictions is poor for the
global peakflow criterion and good for the relative
. 4. Comparison of the relative error on runoff depth 3vi (Fig. 4a) and on peak
brated parameters for the six objective criteria (global and relative volum
peakflow criterion. To summarize it seems that (i)
the volume criterion produces the smallest bias
both in runoff depth and peakflow, (ii) the relative
peakflow criterion provides the best calibration
compromise, namely acceptable bias and largest
precision, and (iii) global peakflow and RMSE
criteria give the poorest calibration results.
–
For the peakflow objective criterion, an improve-ment of the calibration performance is obtained
when using the relative formulations. The mean
and standard deviation of the errors are almost
identical between the global and relative versions
of the volume and RMSE criteria, and moreover
flow 3Qi (Fig. 4b), obtained for Morel-Seytoux’s model using the
e, global and relative peakflow, global and relative RMSE).
Fig. 4 (continued)
Table 6
Means (3V and 3Q ) and standard deviations in brackets (sV and sQ)
of the relative prediction error on runoff depth and peakflow of the
calibration events by Morel-Seytoux’s model
Runoff depth
�3V and (sV)
Peakflow
�3Q and (sQ)
Global volume K0.06 (0.83) K0.06 (0.64)
Relative volume 0.04 (0.84) K0.07 (0.64)
Global peakflow K0.23 (0.67) K0.28 (1.30)
Relative peakflow K0.13 (0.40) K0.14 (0.42)
Global RMSE K0.36 (0.66) K0.17 (0.61)
Relative RMSE K0.36 (0.66) K0.17 (0.61)
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214204
the poorly simulated events remain the same as can
be seen in Fig. 4. Therefore, in the remaining part
of the study, we will restrict the number of
objective criteria that are analysed to the global
volume and RMSE criteria and to the relative
peakflow criterion.
5.2. Validation phase
Model validation was carried out on 14 events. As
can be seen in Fig. 4 and Table 5, there is no
significant degradation of results between the cali-
bration and validation phases for all three calibrated
models. Moreover, in several instances, the error
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214 205
criteria measured during the validation phase are
slightly smaller than that measured during calibration
(Table 5). This may be considered as an indication of
the homogeneity and representativeness of the data set
used for the calibration phase.
5.2.1. Models’ performance
The analysis of Table 5 shows that, similar to the
calibration phase, none of the four tested models
clearly defies the rest with regards to overall perform-
ance. For a given objective criterion, the models’
performance ranking changed between the calibration
and validation phases. Nevertheless, on average
Morel-Seytoux’s model still exhibited good perform-
ance: depending on the objective criterion used it
ranked either first (relative volume criteria) or second
(relative peakflow, global and relative RMSE criteria)
among the models. In contrast, the performance of
Philip’s and Horton’s models was irregular, but with a
slight advantage again to Horton’s model which ranked
first for three objective criteria. The performance of
the SCS model was poor as it ranked third during the
calibration phase, and last during the validation phase
both when using the calibrated parameters and curve
numbers. Note that the global volume criteria ranges
between 0.001 mm (Philip’s model) and 0.006 mm
(SCS’s model) per time step of 1 min; for the 14 events
used for validation (with a total runoff depth of
212 mm), this represents, respectively, an error of
5.7 mm (3%) and 34.3 mm (16%).
The ranking in model performance is less clear,
however, when analysing the overall consistency of
the simulated runoff depths and peakflows for all
combinations of models and objective criteria. When
overlaying the simulated hydrographs for the same
event by the four models (Fig. 5), one can note that in
some instances the models’ outputs are quite similar
(31/08/1994), whereas in others, the simulations
obtained by the SCS and Horton’s models are not in
close range of those of Philip and Morel-Seytoux
(29/09/1994). This can be due to the fact that during
split-sample tests, models may exhibit similar per-
formance (Refsgaard and Knudsen, 1996; Donnelly-
Makowecki and Moore, 1999).
Fig. 6 shows a comparison of the performance of the
four calibrated models for the three objective criteria
retained in the calibration phase, global volume (noted
GV), relative peakflow (noted RP) and global RMSE
(noted GRMSE). The performance was studied in two
space dimensions. The first space represents the bias
couple ðj �3V j; j �3Q jÞ for each model and for each
objective criterion. The best performance corresponds
to the model where both j �3V j and j �3Q j are minimal. For
the global volume criterion, Morel-Seytoux’s and
Philip’s models have the best ranking, while for the
relative peakflow and the global RMSE criteria,
Horton’s model has the highest rank. The SCS model
gives the poorest results. The second space represents
precision (sV, sQ) for each model and for each
objective criterion. The best precision for the three
objective criteria was obtained for Morel-Seytoux’s
model, while the worst was for the SCS model.
Concerning the inter-model comparison shown in
Fig. 6, it must be noted that the best compromise
between bias and precision was obtained by Morel-
Seytoux’s model, whose predictions of runoff depth
and peakflow were the most precise and had the
smallest bias. Philip’s model ranked either second or
third for bias and precision, whereas Horton’s model
was always less precise for runoff depth predictions
although it had the smallest bias. The SCS model was
the overall least precise both for runoff depth and
peakflow simulations.
When analysing the performance of the results in
terms of consistency, i.e. bias and precision in
runoff depth and peakflow simulation using various
criteria, Morel-Seytoux’s and Horton’s models seem
to perform slightly better than Philip’s model.
However, the calibration process was more con-
straining for the two physically based models than
for Horton’s model because for the later no bounds
were imposed on the parameter values. Further-
more, Horton’s model has three parameters that
need to be calibrated, this implies more degrees of
freedom and possibly more uncertainty on the
overall results. Consequently, in comparison with
the other three models, Morel-Seytoux’s formu-
lation can be considered as the most suitable and
the SCS as the least suitable of the tested four
models.
5.2.2. Model performance and event type
The analysis of both calibration and validation
results, based on all three objective criteria retained
(GV, RP and GRMSE), suggest that whether a
flood event is poorly simulated or not depends on
Fig. 5. Comparison between simulated and measured hydrographs for all four models (Morel-Seytoux, Philip, Horton and SCS) using the
parameters obtained after calibration for the global volume criteria.
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214206
the form of the rainfall hyetograph, the data
quality, the accurate representation of the main
hydrological processes in the model and the
representativeness of parameters. Fig. 7 compares
the observed and the simulated runoff of each flood
event for the four calibrated models, and for the
three retained objective criteria. Compared to the
reference SCS simulation in Fig. 3, simulations are
improved. It should also be noted that for a given
objective criterion, all four models have the same
general performance; the same events are well or
badly simulated, but the error varies based on the
model.
When analysing in detail the simulated hydro-
graphs obtained with Morel-Seytoux’s model using
the global volume criteria parameters specified in
Table 4, one can observe that:
–
For 14 events (seven from calibration and sevenfrom validation) the error on runoff depth 3vi is less
than 20%. For five events (two from calibration
and three from validation) 20%!3vi!50%, and
for the other nine events 3viO50%.
–
For 18 events (nine from calibration and nine fromvalidation), the error on peakflow 3Qi is less than
20%. For six events (two from calibration and four
from validation) 20%!3Qi!50%, and for the
other four events 3QiO50%.
–
For 12 events (six from calibration and six fromvalidation), Nash and Sutcliffe (1970) criteria is
Fig. 6. Comparison of the performance of all four models for three objective criteria: global volume (GV), relative peakflow (RP) and global
RMSE (GRMSE).
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214 207
higher than 70%, for seven events between 30 and
70% (two from calibration and five from vali-
dation) and for nine events less than 30%.
These results show that for more than 50% of the
total number of events, we have very good simu-
lations according to each of the three criteria.
Furthermore, for eight events (four from calibration
and four from validation) we have simultaneously
3vi!20%, 3Qi!20%, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency
higher than 70% (see examples in Fig. 8a). On the
other hand, for two events we have poor simulations
with simultaneously 3viO50%, 3QiO50%, and a
Nash–Sutcliffe criteria less than 30%.
Having assessed the accuracy of both rainfall/
runoff data, possible reasons for the mismatch of the
simulation of some flood events were explored. The
following causes were found:
–
Low-runoff depth (Loi!4 mm). These low volumescannot be correctly predicted by any of the four
models selected which are sensitive to the infiltra-
tion excess and hence the rainfall measurement
errors. The overall performance of all four models
was ranked as poor for low-runoff and low-rainfall
intensity events. However, the four calibrated
models seem to have equal abilities in reproducing
medium to high intensity floods.
–
Low-rainfall intensity at the start of the event.Since three of the calibrated models (Morel-
Seytoux’s, Philip’s and Horton’s) assume a
saturation inducing rainfall, flood events starting
with low rainfall intensity are not correctly
modelled (see Fig. 8b for examples).
–
Intermittent rainfall. All selected models considersoil water content constant throughout the flood
events and hence seem to have difficulties in
simulating intermittent rainfall events, even over a
short period of time, i.e. !1.5 h (Fig. 8b). This
suggests a high sensitivity of the infiltration models
to initial soil moisture conditions and a possible
improvement of results through either a calibration
of soil water content data or the addition of a soil
water distribution module.
–
The use of a unique transfer function. This impliesthat the response time of the plot is an intrinsic
plot characteristic and is independent of the
rainfall type or the initial soil moisture conditions.
This assumption is a rather crude generalisation, as
experimental results show that under dry con-
ditions, the plot’s response time is slower than
Fig. 7. Comparison of observed and simulated runoff depths for all four models using the three objective criteria (global volume, relative peakflow, global RMSE) for both
calibration and validation events.
N.
Ch
ah
inia
net
al.
/Jo
urn
al
of
Hyd
rolo
gy
30
6(2
00
5)
19
1–
21
42
08
Fig. 8. Comparison between observed and simulated hydrographs obtained using Morel-Seytoux’s model with the parameters calibrated for the
global volume criterion: (a) examples of well simulated flood events; (b) examples of poorly simulated flood events.
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214 209
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214210
under wet conditions. Consequently, the mismatch
in the occurrence time of hydrograph peaks could
lead to a lower RMSE (see Fig. 8b for examples).
The analysis of results further shows that the use of
the RMSE as an objective criterion does not yield
better results with regards to the general shape of the
hydrograph for all three models. A possible expla-
nation could be that the pooling of a number of events
renders any ‘global’ fitting difficult: the optimum will
be sensitive to extreme values or events (Legates and
McCabe, 1999) which it will tend to reproduce
correctly, and average events will tend to be poorly
simulated. Moreover, fitting with the RMSE criterion
is more demanding as the results are sensitive to
volume, peakflow and response time.
6. Discussion and conclusions
A comparison of the performance of four rain-
fall/runoff models at the scale of small plots was
evaluated with rainfall/runoff data obtained on a
1200 m2 field located in southern France where the
main runoff process is Hortonian overland flow. Four
infiltration models (Philip’s, 1957; Morel-Seytoux’s,
1978; Horton’s, 1933 and SCS, 1972) were coupled to
a unit hydrograph to predict 28 Mediterranean flood
events. The models were calibrated using six different
objective functions corresponding to global and
relative criteria of volume and peakflow conservation
and a minimal RMSE. A comparison of the
calibration and validation results indicates that:
†
The fitted parameter values of a given model varyslightly according to the objective criterion used
but lie within similar bounds.
†
When comparing the overall performance of thefour tested models, Morel-Seytoux’s formulation
ranked the best on average, in terms of accuracy
and precision. Comparatively, the SCS model was
the least suitable to simulate the flood events of the
study zone. Horton’s model showed to be more
consistent in overall performance than Philip’s
model.
†
If the calibrated parameters are indeed representa-tive of the study zone, no degradation can be
observed between the calibration and the vali-
dation results.
†
Furthermore when analysing the performance ofthe six objective criteria used, it can be seen that
some criteria, namely the global volume, global
RMSE and relative peakflow give the best
compromise between bias and precision.
Model comparisons show that the majority of high
runoff events were well simulated by Morel-Sey-
toux’s, Philip’s or Horton’s models. However, all
tested models have difficulties in simulating low-
runoff events and events characterised by even a mild
rainfall hiatus. This is mainly due to the problems
inherent to determining the soil moisture conditions
before and during flood events: as all four models do
not take into account soil moisture re-distribution, soil
moisture values are considered constant over the
whole duration of the flood event. Consequently,
multiple peak-events are poorly simulated. These
findings could also be explained by some of the
assumptions made by the infiltration models (satur-
ation inducing rainfall, homogeneous soil properties,
unique transfer function), by the overall modelling
approach (homogeneous field, lumped modelling
approach, pooling of flood events). Further improve-
ments could be obtained by taking into account
seasonal factors and separating summer storm events
from winter rainfall events during the calibration
process. Furthermore, by taking into account soil
moisture distribution, runoff events corresponding to
non-continuous rainfall should be better simulated.
By comparing runoff model performances at the
small plot scale, we positioned ourselves between two
commonly studied scales: the local measurement
scale and the larger catchment scale. It is interesting to
note that the results we obtained are not necessarily in
accordance with the comparison of infiltration models
obtained by other scientists when simulating infiltra-
tion at the local scale (Mishra et al., 2003; Navar and
Synnott, 2000). This may be due to the scale
difference between the two applications or indeed it
would mean that when working on infiltration excess,
a formal and detailed representation of the infiltration
process is not necessary as the system is more
sensitive to rainfall data.
In our case, the modified Green and Ampt–
Morel-Seytoux (1978) model performs better than
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214 211
the SCS model, with and without calibration. Our
results differ from those obtained by Michaud and
Sorooshian (1994) who observed a good performance
of the spatially distributed SCS model at the
catchment (150 km2) scale, but agree with those
obtained by Wilcox et al. (1990) when comparing the
performances of the SCS and Green and Ampt models
at the small catchment scale (1–10 ha). This would
imply that size conformity alone is not sufficient, in
fact both spatial scale and time step should be taken
into account: although Wilcox et al.’s (1990) spatial
scales were closer to our test conditions, their
simulations ran for monthly and yearly time steps.
In contrast, Michaud and Sorooshian (1994) carried
out event-based simulations as we did, however their
sub-catchments were clearly bigger than our test plot.
So it would seem that the results of a model
comparison scheme are not only dependent on the
process involved and the test criteria used but also on
the time step and the spatial scale chosen for this task.
Contrary to the daily, monthly or yearly time steps,
event-based simulations require a more robust model
as there will be less room for compensation of water
fluxes. Hence a model which is able to satisfy a
modeler’s needs at the event and small plot scale has a
lower possibility of under-performing at more global
space and time scales.
In this instance, and from mainly a Hortonian
runoff production perspective, all the distributed
models based on either Morel-Seytoux’s Philip’s or
Horton’s equations would give similar and adequate
results when initial conditions are calculated from the
measured surface water content, and when two or
three parameters are calibrated. The main issue of
course would be the parameterization of these models.
Indeed, when applying either one of the above
mentioned models at the scale of heterogeneous
catchments one would need a clearly defined
methodology to determine the value of these par-
ameters taking into account the problems related to
their inter-dependency, equifinality and spatial varia-
bility (Battista Chirico et al., 2003; Duan et al., 2003;
Perrin et al., 2001; Refsgaard, 1997; Gan and Biftu,
1996; Sorooshian and Gupta, 1995; Beven and Binley,
1992). Our results indicate that even at the scale of
a heavily instrumented experimental plot, despite
the vast quantity of readily available field
observations and measurements, model calibration is
still necessary.
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the ‘Action Incitative
Prioritaire AIP-Eau et AIP-Ecospace’ of the French
National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA)
and the ‘Programme National de Recherche en
Hydrologie (PNRH)’ of the French Ministry of
Environment. The authors thank Olivier Huttel
and Gwenn Trotoux for data acquisition and
Xavier Louchart for his help in data analysis and
discussions.
Appendix A. Ritchie’s model
Ritchie’s model (1972) calculates evaporation
from a row crop with incomplete cover. It is based
on the hypothesis that water supply to the soil is
unlimited and the crop is not mature. The model
recognises two evaporation phases:
–
During the first phase, the soil has enough water toallow the transport of water to the surface at a rate
at least equal to the potential evaporation rate.
–
During the second phase, the surface soil watercontent is below a limit value and evaporation
will depend on the flux of water between the
soil surface and the evaporative site near the
surface.
The model has thus two parameters: a, which
represents the soil hydraulic properties and U, which
represents the limit above which the second phase
starts. Let tpc [days] be the time of phase change. At a
time T [days], we have
If T ! tpc
XT
tZt0
ER%U0XT
tZ0
ER ZXT
tZ0
EP (A1)
If T O tpc
XT
tZt0
EROU0XT
tZtpc
ER Z aðT K tpcÞ0:5
(A2)
N. Chahinian et al. / Journal of Hydrology 306 (2005) 191–214212
ER
real evaporation (mm);EP
potential evaporation (mm);U, a
model parameters (mm and mm dayK0.5respectively);
t
time (days).The parameters were calibrated on a field
exhibiting the same soil properties by Trambouze
(1996): UZ2.70 mm and aZ2.16 mm dayK0.5.
Potential evaporation was calculated from potential
evapotranspiration measurements using Beer–Lam-
bert’s law. The potential evaporation values were
plugged into Ritchie’s model to obtain daily real
evaporation values. As no rainfall had occurred
between the measurement dates and the start of the
flood events, we considered that changes in soil
water content could be caused by evaporation only.
Therefore we assume that
qic Z qim K ðRE=zÞ (A3)
qic
initial soil water content calculated by Ritchie’smodel [L3LK3];
qim
soil water content measured in situ [L3LK3];RE
surface averaged real evaporation betweenmeasurement and flood event dates [L];
z
depth of the soil surface zone [L].References
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